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金九银十备货行情
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“金九银十”备货行情启动 棉花短期逢回调低多
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-26 07:07
Market Overview - On Monday, the ICE cotton December contract fell by 0.91%, while the overnight cotton 2601 contract rose by 0.21% [1] Fundamental Summary - As of August 25, the Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index was reported at 71.91 cents per pound, down 0.70% from the previous day and down 2.24% from the same period last month [2] - The Agriculture Minister of Pakistan, Iftikhar Ali Sahoo, announced that 3.2 million acres of cotton have been planted in Punjab this year, with a production target of 5.5 million bales [2] - According to Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB), as of August 23, the cotton harvesting rate in Brazil was 60.3%, up from 48.9% the previous week, but down from 76.1% in the same period last year and below the five-year average of 77.8% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures noted that the short-term moisture conditions for U.S. cotton continue to improve, which is bearish for the market. However, international cotton prices are considered undervalued, suggesting a buying opportunity on dips. The current pace of cotton inventory depletion and import expectations indicate a tight supply situation before the new cotton is listed. The pre-sale situation for this year's new cotton is favorable, and there is a slight chance of early harvesting in some regions, providing short-term support for the market. Demand is expected to improve with the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking season [3] - In the domestic market, Zhongyuan Futures reported that the new cotton growth is generally normal, with limited impact from recent weather conditions. There are strong expectations for a bumper crop in 2025. Demand showed slight improvement in August, with a minor decrease in cotton yarn inventory among textile enterprises, although overall inventory remains high. The pace of destocking at terminal fabric factories is slower than that of yarn factories. The market's expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" provide some support for cotton prices, but overall sentiment remains cautious, requiring close attention to the strength of demand recovery [3]