Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton futures market lacks new driving forces. ICE cotton futures rose nearly 1% yesterday, hitting a new high for the year, mainly due to the rise during the Asian session. The market remains optimistic ahead of tonight's USDA planting area intention report [2]. - The spot trading of domestic cotton is mostly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. The overall quotation of pure cotton yarn is stable, and the sales are average. The trading focus of some categories of a few open - end spinning mills has declined steadily, and individual traders have a large negotiation space for sales [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2605 closed at 15,385 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.06%, and the night - session closing price was 15,405 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 404,984 lots, a decrease of 62,162 lots from the previous day, and the positions were 1,087,785 lots, a decrease of 67 lots from the previous day [1]. - CY2605 closed at 21,515 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.37%, and the night - session closing price was 21,600 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.40%. The trading volume was 7,586 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the positions were 8,255 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots from the previous day [1]. - ICE US Cotton 5 closed at 70.07 cents/pound yesterday with an increase of 0.86% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,435, an increase of 1 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 371, an increase of 32 from the previous day [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 220, a decrease of 2 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 78, an increase of 144 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,634 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.06%. The price of Nanjjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,573 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.06% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 16,868 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.11%. The price in Hebei was 16,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.03% [1]. - The 3128B index was 16,823 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.05%. The Cotlook:A index was 80.10 cents/pound, an increase of 1.25 cents from the previous day, an increase of 1.59% [1]. - The price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,653 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.19% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF5 - 9 spread was - 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day's spread [1]. - The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: According to TTEB information, the spot trading of cotton is mostly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 Nanjjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 is CF05 + 1100 - 1200, and most quotes are above 1200, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis of 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 is CF05 + 1300 - 1550, mostly above CF05 + 1350, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: According to TTEB information, the overall quotation of pure cotton yarn is stable, and the sales are average. The market has been relatively dull recently, with mediocre sales. The trading focus of some categories of a few open - end spinning mills has declined steadily, and individual traders have a large negotiation space for sales [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures rose nearly 1%, hitting a new high for the year, mainly due to the rise during the Asian session. The market remains optimistic ahead of tonight's USDA planting area intention report [2]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity values is in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, cotton prices may fluctuate upwards. The US cotton export demand is strong, while the domestic market has increasing supply pressure and relatively slow de - stocking of finished products, but there is still support from rigid demand during the traditional small peak season [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 15,385 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 181,789 lots, up 97 lots; main contract holdings of cotton are 515,084 lots, down 16,089 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 12,435 lots, up 1 lot; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,823 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 21,515 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 655 lots, up 268 lots; main contract holdings of cotton yarn are 8,255 lots, down 1,249 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 220 lots, down 2 lots; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,280 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,489 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,279 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,609 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 24,035 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between cotton and cotton yarn is 5,457 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 894,000 tons, up 33,000 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of cotton is 170,000 tons, down 40,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, down 30,000 tons [2] - The profit of imported cotton is 2,544 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 5.477 million tons, down 311,700 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 21.45 days, down 0.26 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.24 days, up 0.11 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 3.01 billion meters, up 0.2 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 11,061,465.19 thousand US dollars, down 2,748,526.81 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,382,891.7 thousand US dollars, down 2,808,585.3 thousand US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 14.36%, down 0.57%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 14.36%, down 0.57% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 10.15%, down 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 14.45%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of March 24, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 120,118 lots, a decrease of 8,327 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 97,851 lots, a decrease of 14,369 lots from the previous week; the net positions were 22,267 lots, an increase of 6,042 lots from the previous week [2] - In the week ending March 19, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 202,400 bales, a 3% increase from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 100,600 bales, a 46% increase from the previous week and a 43% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [2] 3.8 Domestic Market Situation - On the supply side, foreign cotton continues to arrive at ports, market trading is light, inventory increases significantly, and supply continues to put pressure. As of March 26, the inventory at major imported cotton ports increased by 1.75009% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 582,000 tons [2] - On the consumption side, textile enterprises have few new orders, mostly shipping previous orders, and the de - stocking speed of finished products is relatively slow. The开机 rate in Xinjiang remains stable, above 90%. As of March 26, the operating load of textile enterprises in mainstream areas is 78.5%, a 0.13% decrease from last week. The downstream is still in the traditional small peak season, and there is still support from rigid demand [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2026, Zhengzhou cotton has strong bottom support, but there are short - term callback risk factors in the fundamentals. Further upward breakthrough requires the implementation of policies and continuous follow - up of downstream demand. The global cotton supply is difficult to increase significantly, and the slow depletion of the previous surplus inventory will improve the global supply - demand pattern. The domestic demand has certain resilience, but the export growth rate may gradually decline [3][114][115]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: In Q1 2026, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton traded around "production reduction expectation" and "demand recovery". The adjustment of Xinjiang's cotton planting area and the recovery of downstream demand supported the upward movement of the center of gravity. Although there were short - term suppressions, the overall upward trend was obvious [8]. - **US Cotton**: In Q1 2026, the main contract of US cotton showed a "V" - shaped trend. The market logic shifted from "terminal demand concerns" to "supply contraction expectation + marginal improvement in exports". The expectation of reduced planting area and the improvement of export conditions drove the price to rebound [9]. 3.2 Overseas Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Overview**: In the 2025/2026 cotton year, the global cotton output increased slightly, consumption decreased slightly, imports and exports increased slightly, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio increased. The adjustment of this report has a slightly bearish impact on the global market [11][12][13]. - **Global Climate Overview**: In 2026, the climate will change from La Nina to El Nino. El Nino may lead to a significant increase in the risk of production reduction in the Northern Hemisphere and a relatively favorable situation in the Southern Hemisphere. The global cotton output may decline slightly [17][18]. - **US Market Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Area and Yield**: The new - year planting area is expected to decline, and the drought in the main producing areas will restrict the yield. The total output in 2026/27 is expected to decrease by about 2.3% [28][29]. - **Exports**: As of March 19, the signing volume was lower than the same period, but the shipment volume was higher. In the future, with the improvement of global textile demand and China's procurement willingness, the export prospects are expected to improve [32][33]. - **Inventory**: In the 2025/26 cotton year, the US cotton is still in a state of inventory accumulation, but there is room for marginal improvement in the inventory - to - consumption ratio [35][36]. - **Brazilian Market Supply - Demand Situation**: In the 2026/27 cotton year, the planting area is expected to decrease by 5%, and the yield is expected to decrease by 6.9%. The export is in a downward channel, but the new - season supply contraction will support the price [39][40]. - **Indian Market Supply - Demand Situation**: In the 2026/27 cotton year, the output is expected to be the same as the previous year. The domestic textile consumption is recovering, but the export is under pressure. The overall supply - demand pattern is expected to remain relatively loose [43][44]. 3.3 Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Situation - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: According to the USDA and BCO, in the 2025/26 cotton year, China's cotton output increased, consumption increased slightly, and imports increased slightly. In the 2026/27 cotton year, the output is expected to decline, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to converge [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Progress**: As of late March, the cotton inspection was nearing completion, and the sales rate of new cotton had reached over 74%. The core contradiction is the inventory depletion rate of ginning mills and the purchasing willingness of downstream spinning mills [50]. - **Output**: In the 2026/27 cotton year, the output is expected to decline. The actual implementation of the production reduction task may face challenges, and the actual reduction in 2026 may be 5 - 8% [53][54]. - **Imports**: In the early stage of 2026, cotton imports were strong, but the annual import volume is expected to be relatively low. Imported yarn may suppress the domestic cotton price. The import tariff of US cotton has been reduced, but there are still uncertainties [64][65][66]. - **Inventory**: China's cotton commercial inventory is at a high level, but the year - on - year increase has been significantly alleviated. The inventory depletion expectation is relatively optimistic, but the potential release of state - reserve cotton needs to be noted [78][79]. - **Demand**: - **Load and Profit**: As of March 21, the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills were higher than the same period. The profit of spinning mills showed a V - shaped trend. However, there may be some demand front - loading factors, and the high operating load may face a decline pressure [86][87][89]. - **Retail and Consumption**: In January - February 2026, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased significantly. After the Spring Festival, the growth rate is expected to slow down. In the long - term, the consumption structure is still restricted by population and debt [90][91][94]. - **Exports**: In January - February 2026, China's textile and clothing exports increased significantly. However, the subsequent replenishment order space in the US is limited, and the export growth rate may decline [105][106][113]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the new - cotton inventory pressure and the issuance of import quotas will suppress the cotton price. In the long term, with the implementation of Xinjiang's target price subsidy policy and the start of downstream replenishment demand, the supply - demand situation will improve, and the cotton price is expected to rise. However, it is necessary to pay attention to potential risks such as macro - environment changes, policy implementation, and abnormal weather [114][115][117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2026, the domestic and international cotton markets showed a significant divergence. Zhengzhou cotton reached above 15,000 yuan/ton due to rapid inventory reduction this year and the expectation of reduced planting area next year, but was constrained by the strengthening of the internal - external price difference. U.S. cotton had a slow signing progress under the influence of tariffs and competition from Brazilian cotton exports, with prices running weakly. Later, as U.S. foreign trade relations eased, U.S. cotton export data improved, and there was also an expectation of reduced production in the new year, leading to a significant increase in the price center [1][38]. - In Q2, with the continuous effectiveness of domestic policies to expand domestic demand, terminal textile and clothing consumption is expected to maintain steady growth. The replenishment demand in the foreign sales market is gradually being released, and China's textile and clothing exports are expected to maintain a year - on - year growth trend. The center of U.S. cotton is expected to rise, and the suppression of Zhengzhou cotton by the internal - external price difference may weaken. Cotton prices still have an upward basis, but the issuance of domestic quotas will alleviate the supply shortage to some extent. The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area may be relatively limited, and macro risks are increasing, narrowing the upward space for cotton prices [1][38][39]. - The predicted range for Zhengzhou cotton is around 14,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In Q1 2026, Zhengzhou cotton and U.S. cotton prices showed obvious divergence. Zhengzhou cotton was driven by multiple factors at the beginning of the year and broke through the 15,000 - yuan mark, but then maintained high - level oscillations. In March, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased the cost of cotton and boosted demand, providing support for Zhengzhou cotton [4]. - U.S. cotton prices were generally weak in Q1. Under the influence of tariffs and Brazilian cotton competition, the signing progress was slow. In February, export data improved, and the price center rose significantly. However, the U.S. cotton price was still under pressure due to concerns about the U.S. economy [8]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Core Concerns 3.2.1 New - season Policy Not Yet Issued, with a Strong Expectation of Area Reduction - Since 2017, the cotton target price subsidy policy has been adjusted every three years. As of March 12, 2026, the cumulative notarized inspection volume of national cotton in the 2025/26 season reached 752.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.78 million tons. The new - season subsidy policy for 2026 has not been issued, and there is a clear expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton area, but the actual reduction may be less than expected [10]. - According to a survey in early March, the intended national cotton planting area in 2026 is 46.249 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%, and the intended area in Xinjiang is 42.75 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [10]. 3.2.2 High Internal - External Price Difference, and the Issuance of Quotas - From January to February 2026, China's cotton and cotton yarn imports increased significantly. The National Development and Reform Commission issued 894,000 tons of 1% tariff import quotas at the beginning of the year, and the internal - external cotton price difference was high. On March 16, the policy of issuing additional cotton import quotas was implemented, with a total of 300,000 tons of sliding - scale duty processing trade quotas [15]. - In Q2, although the internal - external price difference has narrowed after the issuance of quotas, it is still at a high level in history. The price advantage of imported cotton and cotton yarn still exists, and the import volume is expected to increase compared with last year. However, the uncertainty of U.S. global tariff policies is still high [15]. 3.2.3 Strong Demand, Focus on Macroeconomic Policy Adjustment - From January to February 2026, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products in China were 283.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. In Q1, although the immediate profits of domestic spinning mills were squeezed, the overall consumption performance was strong. In Q2, domestic terminal textile and clothing consumption is expected to maintain steady growth, and the order - receiving rhythm of downstream factories and the profit repair of spinning mills will be the focus of the market [20]. - From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing export volume was 50.446 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.65%. U.S. foreign trade relations have eased, and the replenishment demand in the U.S. market is gradually being released. In Q2, China's textile and clothing exports are expected to maintain a year - on - year growth trend, but the uncertainty of U.S. foreign trade policies is still high [23]. 3.2.4 Improved Export Demand for U.S. Cotton, but New - season Planting Still Faces Challenges - As of March 12, 2026, the cumulative net signing of U.S. cotton exports for the 25/26 season was 2.189 million tons, reaching 83.77% of the expected annual export volume. In Q2, with the seasonal slowdown of Brazilian cotton exports, the procurement demand of textile countries may shift to U.S. cotton, and China's issuance of additional quotas is expected to marginally improve the signing demand for U.S. cotton [28]. - The USDA predicts that the U.S. cotton planting area in the 26/27 season will increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 57.06 million mu, but the drought in the main producing areas is still severe, and the abandonment rate may rise to 18.8%, with an estimated output of 2.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [30]. 3.2.5 Global New - season Output is the Key - The USDA expects the global cotton output in the 25/26 season to be 26.343 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 533,000 tons, and the consumption to be 25.817 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 79,000 tons. The期末 inventory is expected to be 16.631 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 573,000 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise slightly to 64% [35]. - Brazil's new - season cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to decrease by 281,000 tons to 3.795 million tons. Australia's cotton output is expected to be 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The market also expects a reduction in the output of China and the United States. The USDA predicts that the global cotton output in the 26/27 season may drop to 25.26 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 59.3% [35]. - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have affected the global fertilizer supply chain, increasing the cotton planting cost and affecting the planting willingness and yield of farmers in major cotton - producing countries [35]. 3.3 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook - In Q1, the domestic and international cotton markets showed a significant divergence. In Q2, domestic terminal textile and clothing consumption is expected to maintain steady growth, and the export of textile and clothing is expected to maintain a year - on - year growth trend. The center of U.S. cotton is expected to rise, and Zhengzhou cotton prices still have an upward basis, but the upward space may be narrowed [38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market have not changed significantly, and cotton prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is likely to move in a range, while the domestic cotton market is expected to show a slightly stronger trend in the short term [1][8][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals of the US cotton market have not changed much, and it is expected to move in a range. As of the week of March 12, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0482 million tons, accounting for 100.6% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The weekly deliverable ratio was 79.9%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year-on-year [8] - **US Cotton Growth Situation**: As of March 12, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0482 million tons, accounting for 100.6% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 2.9602 million tons, with an inspection progress of 100.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 88,000 tons, with an inspection progress of 104.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 14% [8] - **US Cotton Production Area Weather Situation**: As of March 10, the drought index in the main US cotton production areas (93.0%) was 229, a week-on-week decrease of 3 and a year-on-year increase of 97; the drought index in Texas was 253, a week-on-week decrease of 1 and a year-on-year increase of 65. The drought index in the main US cotton production areas remained basically stable, and the drought levels in the main production areas and Texas were still at relatively high levels in recent years. According to the quarterly outlook, the drought in the main US cotton production areas will continue from March to May, intensify in the central and western regions, and ease in the eastern production areas [8] - **US Cotton Sales Situation**: As of the week of March 12, the weekly contract volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 44,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22% and a 30% decrease from the average level of the previous four weeks; among them, Vietnam signed 17,200 tons and Turkey signed 6,300 tons. The weekly contract volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 27,700 tons, with China signing 11,000 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 62,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 26% and an 8% increase from the average level of the previous four weeks, with Vietnam shipping 22,100 tons and Pakistan shipping 8,300 tons [8] - **CFTC**: As of March 6, the number of unpriced contracts of the seller on the ON - CALL 2605 contract decreased by 3,239 to 17,576, a decrease of 70,000 tons week-on-week. The total number of unpriced contracts of the seller in the 2025/26 season decreased by 1,019 to 32,083, equivalent to 730,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons week-on-week. The total number of unpriced contracts of the seller on ICE increased to 56,853, equivalent to 1.29 million tons, an increase of 1,475 contracts or 30,000 tons week-on-week [8] - **India**: According to the latest report of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), as of February 28, 2026, compared with the previous month, the estimated cotton balance sheet for the 2025/26 season showed an increase of 60,000 tons in production, 170,000 tons in domestic demand, a decrease of 50,000 tons in imports, and a decrease of 160,000 tons in ending inventory. Compared with the previous year, the beginning inventory increased by 360,000 tons, production increased by 140,000 tons, imports increased by 100,000 tons, domestic demand increased by 20,000 tons, exports decreased by 50,000 tons, and ending inventory increased by 640,000 tons [8] - **Global**: According to the latest March global cotton production and sales forecast of the USDA, the global cotton production in March was 26.34 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 250,000 tons, with China's production increasing by 100,000 tons to 7.72 million tons; total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.84 million tons; ending inventory increased by 280,000 tons to 16.63 million tons [8] 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of 24:00 on March 11, 2026, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises was 33,290,304 bales, totaling 7,514,731 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.03%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 7,128,929 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.06%. As of March 6, 2026, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 5.2078 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 59,800 tons (a decrease of 1.14%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 4.0151 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 85,400 tons (a decrease of 2.08%); the commercial cotton in the inland area was 636,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,200 tons (an increase of 1.14%) [26] - **Demand Side**: As of March 19, the cumulative sales volume of national lint cotton was 5.683 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.767 million tons and an increase of 2.16 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. As of March 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 76%, a week-on-week increase of 3.83%. This week, the spinning mills in the inland area continued to resume production, with an operating rate of 60 - 70% in the inland area and over 90% in Xinjiang. As of March 12, the yarn inventory of spinning mills in major areas was 34.8 days, a week-on-week increase of 2.35%. This week, the operating rate of spinning mills increased, but new orders for spinning mills were limited, yarn sales were slow, and finished product inventory accumulated, with an inventory of 18 - 25 days for inland enterprises and 40 - 45 days for enterprises in Xinjiang [26] - **Comprehensive View**: Currently, the market contradictions are not significant, the demand side performs well, and the market has certain expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". At present, the cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The fundamentals of cotton have certain support [26] 3.3 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding - scale duty quotas this time has a relatively small impact on domestic supply. However, the issuance time is very early, leaving room for future policies. It is expected that the issuance of these quotas will likely benefit US cotton, narrow the domestic - foreign price difference, and the Zhengzhou cotton price may also follow the upward trend of US cotton. Recently, crude oil prices have fallen, and cotton prices have been affected by the overall market atmosphere, but considering the current market support, the downward space is expected to be relatively limited [38] - **Unilateral Strategy**: It is expected that the US cotton price will likely fluctuate in a range in the short term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have certain support. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips and not to chase high prices [38] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [38] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [38] 3.4 Weekly Data Tracking - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: The chart shows the domestic - foreign cotton price difference, the price difference under 1% tariff, the domestic cotton price, and the imported cotton price under 1% tariff from 2020 to 2023 [41] - **9 - 1 Spread Trend**: The chart shows the 9 - 1 spread trends of different years, such as CF1909 - 2001, CF2009 - 2101, etc. [42] - **Cotton Inventory**: The table shows the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton industrial inventory, reserve inventory, and other aspects from 2015 to 2024 [44] - **Basis**: The charts show the basis of cotton in different months (January, May, September), the basis of US seven - major market upland cotton, and the basis between the spot price of C32S cotton yarn and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the cotton industry is "oscillating." In the short - term, cotton prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish; in the medium - to - long - term, the upside space is limited, and there is a need to be vigilant against correction risks [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The core view is that the price difference between domestic and international cotton is starting to converge, and both domestic and international cotton prices are running strongly. The supply of cotton is expected to shrink, with short - term supply remaining tight. Demand has a complex situation, with domestic demand gradually recovering but overall demand repair affected by weak external demand. The overall inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, and various factors such as basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policies all have a certain impact on cotton prices [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Internationally, the production of the US and Brazil has been raised, but there are still short - term supply disturbances (delayed new cotton listing in India and farmers' reluctance to sell). Domestically, the purchase of Xinjiang cottonseed is almost over, ginning is nearing completion, old - crop cotton inventory is at a low level, combined with the expected structural reduction of Xinjiang's cotton planting area in the 26/27 season, and the supply contraction expectation is clear, with short - term supply remaining tight [3]. - **Demand**: Globally, the consumption in the 2025/26 season has been slightly reduced, and there is pressure on external demand as the demand in major consumer countries such as Pakistan and India has declined. Domestically, the operating rate of downstream textile mills has rebounded to 64.6% (a 6% month - on - month increase), orders have improved, domestic demand is gradually recovering, but weak external demand drags down the overall demand repair [3]. - **Inventory**: Globally, the ending inventory in the 2025/26 season has been raised to 70.39 million bales, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has risen to 64.4%. Domestically, the commercial inventory has decreased slightly year - on - year, Xinjiang cotton has been transferred to the inland, and port inventory has increased. The overall inventory is at a low level in recent years [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: (1) The basis of Xinjiang spot cotton has narrowed compared with the previous period. (2) This week, the far - month contracts of Zhengzhou cotton have strengthened, showing a structure of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The inversion of the price difference between domestic and international cotton has eased, and the price advantage of imported cotton has weakened [3]. - **Profit**: For cotton farmers, the planting profit has recovered but is still below the cost line. For textile mills, raw material costs are high, cotton yarn prices are rising steadily, but profits are still thin. Some enterprises are at the break - even point, and their purchasing willingness is cautious [3]. - **Valuation**: Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is close to the planting cost line and is supported by tight supply. Internationally, the far - month contracts of ICE cotton have reached a new high this year, and the valuation is supported by demand expectations and supply disturbances, being at a neutral level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Domestically, pro - growth policies boost domestic demand, and additional import quotas are issued to adjust domestic supply and demand. Internationally, under the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the global monetary policy tends to be loose, the risk appetite for commodities has increased, and geopolitical disturbances intensify market volatility, indirectly supporting cotton prices [3]. - **Investment View**: Short - term: Constrained by foreign imports, tight domestic supply, and gradually improving downstream demand, cotton prices are oscillating and slightly bullish. Medium - to - long - term: The upside space is limited, and there is a need to be vigilant against correction risks [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage trading, the current recommendation is to wait and see. The risks to be concerned about include domestic regulatory policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. Part Two: Cotton Fundamental Data - **US Textile and Apparel Imports**: There are multiple charts showing the monthly import values of US clothing and accessories from various countries such as the world, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, China, and Vietnam from 2020 - 2025, indicating the reconstruction of the US textile and apparel import pattern [5][6]. - **EU Textile and Apparel Imports**: There are multiple charts presenting the monthly import values of EU clothing and accessories from countries like Vietnam, the US, China, and Bangladesh from 2020 - 2025 [13][17]. - **Domestic Cotton Processing and Sales Progress**: Charts show the national cotton processing progress, cumulative inspection volume, picking progress, and delivery progress from 2020 - 2025 [20][22]. - **Import Situation**: The import of cotton is restricted, while the import of cotton yarn has increased. There are charts depicting the monthly and cumulative import volumes of domestic cotton and cotton yarn from 2018 - 2025 [23][24]. - **Upstream Inventory**: The upstream inventory shows a seasonal increase. Charts display the national cotton bonded - area commercial inventory, industrial inventory, commercial inventory, and Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory from the 20/21 to 25/26 seasons [29][33]. - **Mid - stream Mill Load**: The load of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills is presented in charts from 2018 - 2026 [38]. - **Mid - stream Mill Profit**: The overall profitability of spinning mills has narrowed, and Xinjiang mills are at a break - even point. Charts show the spinning immediate profit and yarn - cotton spot price difference from 2017 - 2026 [40][41]. - **Domestic and International Consumption and Export**: There are multiple charts showing the domestic cumulative and monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles, as well as China's cumulative and monthly export values of clothing and textile yarn and fabrics from 2019 - 2025 [47][53]. - **US Cotton Market**: Charts display the annual processing volume of the US cotton market, the weekly signing and shipping volumes of US upland cotton in the current and next market seasons from 2020 - 2026, and the data related to China's signing and shipping of US upland cotton [62][64]. - **International Cotton Exports**: Charts show the export volumes of Brazilian cotton and its exports to China, as well as the export volume and value of Australian cotton to China from 2020 - 2025 [77][81]. Part Three: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis and Spread**: Charts present the basis of Zhengzhou cotton's 05 and 09 contracts, the spread between 09 - 01 and 05 - 09 contracts from 2021 - 2026 [85][86]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: Charts show the position volumes of Zhengzhou cotton's 05 and 09 contracts from the 20/21 to 25/26 seasons [93][94]. - **US Cotton Fund Position**: Charts display the net - long position volumes of managed funds in US cotton futures and the combined net - long position volumes of futures and options, as well as their long - position ratios from 2018 - 2026 [101][103]. - **US Cotton Month - to - Month Spread**: The chart shows the 03 - 05 month - to - month spread of US cotton from 2021 - 2026 [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The March USDA monthly supply and demand report is neutral. Since March, the operation of the domestic downstream textile industry chain has been satisfactory. The prices of finished cotton yarn and its substitute viscose staple fiber have been gradually rising. Currently, the fundamentals are favorable. Affected by crude oil prices and the overall commodity market in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton prices are fluctuating widely at a high level. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: The ICAC predicts that the global cotton production in the 2026/27 season will decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption is expected to remain stable at 25 million tons. From February 26 to March 5, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 1,800 tons, with cumulative exports of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons. As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons. The March forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production is 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February forecast and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February forecast and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The US production forecast in March is 3.03 million tons, unchanged from the February forecast, with export estimates remaining the same and the inventory - to - consumption ratio at 30.43%, unchanged. Brazil's production forecast increases by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's production forecast remains at 5.12 million tons; China's production is raised by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: The March USDA monthly supply and demand report is neutral. The domestic downstream textile industry chain has been operating well since March. The prices of finished cotton yarn and viscose staple fiber are rising. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is 1,293 yuan/ton, with a positive score of +1, indicating a strengthening basis. The Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a score of +0, showing little change. The spinning immediate profit is - 1,811 yuan/ton, with a score of +0, indicating a decrease in profit. The Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread is 300 yuan/ton, with a score of +0, suggesting a weakening of the producing - area price. The FC index M 1% is 12,647 yuan/ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty is 13,756 yuan/ton, with a score of - 0.5, indicating that the domestic valuation is higher than the international market. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to go long on dips. The core driving logic is the reduction of the new - year planting area combined with good macro - expectations [11]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report shows the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract from 2022 to 2026 [24]. - **Import Profit**: It presents the 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty internal - external spreads from 2022 to 2026 [26]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread**: It shows the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads [28]. - **Production - Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit**: It shows the trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit from 2022 to 2026 [30]. - **US Cotton Monthly Spread**: It shows the trends of the US cotton 5 - 7 and 7 - 12 contract spreads [32]. - **External Market Spread**: It shows the trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA index 1% tariff from 2022 to 2026 [34]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: It shows the trends of China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase price [38]. - **Cotton Import Volume**: It shows the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton from 2021 to 2026 [40]. - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: It shows the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of the US to China from 2021 to 2026 [43]. - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: It shows the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn from 2021 to 2026 [45]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills from 2022 to 2026 [48]. - **National Sales Progress**: It shows the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City from 2022 to 2026 [51]. - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory from 2022 to 2026 [53]. - **Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: It shows the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills from 2022 to 2026 [55]. 3.4. International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: It shows the proportion of the US cotton - planting area without drought and the cotton good - quality rate from 2022 to 2026 [59]. - **US Production Situation**: It shows the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton from 2021 to 2026 [61]. - **US Yield and Planting Area**: It shows the yield forecast and planting area of US cotton [64]. - **US Export Contract Progress**: It shows the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of US cotton from 2021 to 2026 [68]. - **US Export Shipment Volume**: It shows the annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton from 2021 to 2026 [70]. - **US Cotton Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: It shows the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton [71]. - **Brazil Yield and Planting Area**: It shows the planting area and yield of Brazilian cotton [73]. - **Brazil Export Volume**: It shows the export volume forecast and monthly export volume of Brazilian cotton [77]. - **Brazil Cotton Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: It shows the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [80]. - **India Yield and Planting Area**: It shows the planting area and yield of Indian cotton [82]. - **India Consumption and Import - Export**: It shows the consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [87][88].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Demand Shows Decent Performance, Cotton Prices Fluctuate with an Upward Bias [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to fluctuate within a range, while the domestic cotton market is expected to show a slightly upward - biased trend in the short term. The cotton market has certain fundamental support, and investors can consider building long positions on dips [8][25][38] Summary by Directory Part 1: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals of the US cotton market have changed little, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. As of March 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 3.0442 million tons, accounting for 100.5% of the estimated annual US cotton production, a 4% year - on - year decrease. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 100.4%, a 4% year - on - year decrease, and that of Pima cotton was 103.8%, a 14% year - on - year decrease. The weekly deliverable ratio was 78.8%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year - on - year. The final inspection volume is expected to be around 3.05 million tons, slightly higher than the production forecast of 3.03 million tons [8] - **US Cotton Growing Conditions**: As of March 10, the drought index of the main US cotton - producing areas (93.0%) was 229, a decrease of 3 from the previous week and an increase of 97 year - on - year. The drought index in Texas was 253, a decrease of 1 from the previous week and an increase of 65 year - on - year. Drought in the main cotton - producing areas is expected to continue from March to May, and may intensify in the central - western regions and ease in the eastern regions [8] - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of March 5, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 8,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 83,900 tons, a 31% increase from the previous week and a 77% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [8] - **CFTC**: As of March 6, the number of unpriced seller contracts on the ON - CALL 2605 contract decreased by 3,239 to 17,576, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The total number of unpriced seller contracts in the 2025/26 season decreased by 1,019 to 32,083, equivalent to 730,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The total number of unpriced seller contracts on ICE increased to 56,853, equivalent to 1.29 million tons, an increase of 1,475 from the previous week, or 30,000 tons [8] - **Brazil**: The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (ABRAPA) predicts that this year's cotton production in Brazil will be 3.83 million tons, lower than 4.25 million tons in 2025. The output of Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, is expected to be 2.56 million tons, a 15% decrease from the previous season [8] - **Global**: According to the latest USDA March global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in March was 26.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 tons. China's total production increased by 100,000 tons to 7.72 million tons. Total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.84 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 280,000 tons to 16.63 million tons [8] Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of 24:00 on March 11, 2026, the cumulative public inspection of new cotton was 33,290,304 bales, totaling 7,514,731 tons, a 12.03% year - on - year increase. The cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 7,128,929 tons, a 12.06% year - on - year increase. As of March 6, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2078 million tons, a decrease of 59,800 tons (1.14%) from the previous week [26] - **Demand Side**: As of February 27, the cumulative sales volume of national lint cotton was 5.146 million tons, an increase of 1.846 million tons year - on - year and an increase of 2.309 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. As of March 12, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 76%, a 3.83% increase from the previous week [26] - **Overall**: The current market contradictions are not significant. With the downstream industries resuming work, there are certain expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". The cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The cotton fundamentals have certain support [26] Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The current price difference between domestic and international cotton under the sliding - scale tariff is around 2,900 yuan/ton (about 3,900 yuan/ton under the 1% tariff), which is conducive to imports. The fundamentals have no obvious negative factors. The global cotton production in the USDA annual report was adjusted down by 3%. Overall supply is relatively tight, and if consumption continues to increase, there may be a tight - balance situation. The signing situation has improved [38] - **Single - side**: It is expected that the US cotton price will fluctuate slightly upward in the short term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have certain support. Investors can consider building long positions on dips and avoid chasing high prices [38] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [38] - **Options**: Wait and see [38] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Price Difference**: The report provides historical data on the price difference between domestic and international cotton under the 1% tariff, as well as the price difference between the September and January contracts [41][42] - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory [44] - **Basis**: It presents the basis data of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US seven - major market upland cotton and the basis of cotton yarn C32S spot and Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contract [47]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. The overall trading atmosphere in the domestic cotton - textile enterprise market is steadily improving, with the downstream shipment volume continuously increasing. However, the ICE cotton futures failed to maintain their gains due to insufficient fundamental drivers and concerns about the economic outlook caused by high oil prices [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 15,545 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% and a night - session closing price of 15,600 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.35%. CY2605 closed at 21,735 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.72% and a night - session closing price of 21,625 yuan/ton with a night - session decrease of 0.51%. ICE cotton 5 closed at 65.21 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.05%. The trading volume of CF2605 was 727,497 lots, a decrease of 217,389 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,154,293 lots, an increase of 2,721 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 16,137 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 14,724 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 12,325, an increase of 173 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 446, a decrease of 164. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 219, an increase of 105 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 168, a decrease of 163 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,794 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,713 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 16,894 yuan/ton, an increase of 193 yuan or 1.16% from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 16,883 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan or 1.01% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 16,848 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 1.08% from the previous day. The Cotlook:A index was 75.75 cents/pound, an increase of 0.55 cents or 0.73% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan from the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was mostly weak, point - price trading was sluggish, and fixed - price trading was relatively good. The mainstream basis quotes remained stable, and some high - basis quotes for cotton spot were slightly lowered. For 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5, many sales basis were at CF05 + 1250~1350 and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. Some fixed - price transactions of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 were at 16,800 (on a conditioned weight basis) and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The overall trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was steadily improving. The downstream shipment volume continued to increase, and the Shanghai Textile Exhibition promoted active business docking in the industry, further warming up the market trading atmosphere. Recently, high - count pure - cotton yarns of 40S and above performed relatively prominently. Some spinning mills' order schedules had exceeded one month, and the quotes of large spinning mills showed a steady - to - rising trend [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures closed slightly lower by 0.05% yesterday. In the morning, ICE cotton futures rose. After the USDA released the weekly US cotton export data, ICE cotton futures reached the daily high, with the December contract hitting a new high this year. However, due to insufficient fundamental drivers and concerns about the economic outlook caused by high oil prices, ICE cotton failed to maintain its gains and finally returned to near the previous day's closing price [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market shows a short - term slightly bullish and oscillating trend. The 1 - 2 month textile exports are good, entering the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", and with the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports [4]. - The ICAC predicts that the global cotton production in 2026/27 will be 2480 million tons, a 4.0% decrease compared to 2025/26, mainly due to the decline in Brazil and the US; consumption will be 2500 million tons, a 0.7% decrease, remaining relatively stable as the decrease in Chinese consumption is offset by the growth in India and Vietnam [13]. - The USDA's February report shows that in the 2025/26 year, the global cotton production is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The ICAC predicts that the global cotton consumption in 2026/27 will be 2500 million tons and production will be 2480 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. The USDA's February report shows that in the 2025/26 year, the production is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. From January to February, textile and clothing exports were 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%; cotton yarn imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. The Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/26 year shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons. Overall, it is bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,733, and the basis is 1413 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/26 year shows an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position increases, and the main trend is unclear, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The textile exports from January to February are good. Currently, it is the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", and with the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. The cotton market has a short - term slightly bullish and oscillating trend [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors**: In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream replenishment occurred before the Spring Festival. The tariff on exports to the US has been reduced. Sino - US relations have eased. The traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" has arrived [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton has been listed. Currently, it is the traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/26 year, the global cotton production increased by 1% year - on - year to 2609.6 million tons, consumption decreased by 0% year - on - year to 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 2% year - on - year to 1635.3 million tons [11][12]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 2026/27 year, the global cotton production is expected to be 2480 million tons, a 4.0% decrease; consumption is 2500 million tons, a 0.7% decrease; the ending inventory is 1660 million tons, a 1.0% decrease; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.40%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease; the trade volume is 960 million tons, a 1.0% decrease; the yield per unit area is 822 kg/ha, a 1.6% decrease; and the planting area is 30.2 million hectares, a 0.7% decrease [13]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Data**: In the 2025/26 year, the production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [15]. 3.5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content