棉系周报：基本面有所支撑 棉价震荡偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠、王玺圳 期货从业证号：F3013727、F03118729 咨询从业证号：Z0014425、F3013727 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 227/82/4 228/210/172 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 吨；总消费调减少4.5万吨至2584万吨；期末库存调增14万吨，目前是1635万吨。 ...

研究所 郑棉回踩支撑 走势存在韧性 ——国信期货棉花周报 2026年3月6日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 棉花市场分析 2 后市展望 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 郑棉本周小幅震荡，周度跌幅0.68%。ICE期棉偏弱震荡，周跌幅2.06%。 郑商所棉花期货价格走势 ICE期棉价格走势 一、棉花市场分析 研究所 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 1、现货价格 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 2、棉花进口情况 研究所 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 2020年1月 2021年1月 2022年1月 2023年1月 2024 年1月 2025年1月 2026年1月 中国棉花价格指数:229 中国棉花价格指数:328 本周棉花价格指数回落。3128指数较上周下跌130元/吨，2129指数较上周下跌130元/吨。 150,000.00 120,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 30,00 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年3月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA2月报：25/26年度产量 2609.6万吨，消费2584.7万吨，期末库存1635.3万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美 元，同比下降7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加 13.33%。农村部2月25/26年度：产量664万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存829万 吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价16633，基差1408（05合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存： ...

光期研究 见微知著 棉花策略月报 2026 年 0 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：波动加剧，未来仍可期 p 2 棉花：波动加剧，未来仍可期 总 结 供应端：2026/27年度全球、美国、中国棉花产量预计值均同比下降。 1、2026年USDA农业展望论坛中，预计2026/27年度全球棉花产量2526万吨，同比下降3.2%。2、预计2026/27年度美国棉花产量296万吨，同比下降2.3%。3、预计 2026/27年度中国棉花产量697万吨，同比下降8.6%，降幅略超出国内主流预测。4、截至2月26日，全国棉花公检量748万吨，同比增加94.83万吨。 棉花：波动加剧，未来仍可期 总 结 需求端：节后纺织企业开机负荷持续回升，依据库存数据反推棉花消费量当月值维持较高水平。 1、12月，我国服装鞋帽、针、纺织品类商品零售额1661亿元，同比上涨0.6%，1-12月累计零售额为15215亿元，同比上涨3.2%。12月社零同比增长0.9%，1-12月社零累 计同比增长3.7%。2、截至2月27日当周，纱线综合 ...

郑棉：利多叠加下大涨，短期有回调压力 弘业期货农产品研究团队 2026/2/27 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 节假日期间，美农展望论坛整体利多、美国关税短期利多，郑棉中长期基本面好转，叠加资金青睐， 郑棉节后开盘大涨，主力合约本周最高触达15665元/吨。随后虽有回调，但在15300元/吨附近回调遇阻， 整体偏强。中长期来看，供需基本面改善情况下郑棉仍有上涨空间，宜逢低入多。短期或有回调压力 ， 幅度有限。近期关注节后下游复工情况以及涉棉相关政策。 美国展望论坛对下年度棉花持乐观态度。 根据美国农业部农业展望论坛的最新预测，26/27年度，全球棉花总产预期同比减少3.2%，消费同比增 加1.2%，期末库存同比减少5.2%。预计26/27年度，美棉种植面积预计同比增1.3%，收获面积同比减少2.2%， 单产持平，美棉总产预期296万吨，同比减少2.3%，消费同比持平，出口同比增加1.7%，期末库存同比减少 4.5%。中国棉花产量预计为3200万包，消费增幅预计约为1%。 风险：需求不足、关税 美展望论坛整体偏多 利多叠加下大涨，短期有回调压力 利多叠加下大涨，短期有回调 ...

Report Information - Report Date: February 12, 2026 [3] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Author: Wang Xiaobei [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The bullish factor of the decline in new cotton area in 2026 has been partially reflected, which is bullish for the price of Zhengzhou Cotton in the long term. Coupled with factors such as the purchase cost of lint cotton and the relatively fast sales progress this year, the support for Zhengzhou Cotton around 14,500 yuan/ton is relatively obvious [4]. - In the short term, there is no strong driving force in the industrial aspect itself, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the medium and long term, the center still has room to move up [4]. - Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand after the festival and relevant cotton - related policies [4] Summary by Content 1. US Cotton Signing and Export Situation - As of the week of January 29, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 56,700 tons, a 23% increase from the previous week, a 5% decrease from the four - week average, and an 11% decrease from the same period last year. Among them, Vietnam signed 12,200 tons, Pakistan 10,900 tons, and China 8,300 tons [5][22]. - In the 2025/26 season, the total signing and sales progress of US cotton is 70%, 15 percentage points slower than the average of the same period in the past four years; the cumulative export shipment progress is 50%, 9 percentage points faster than the average of the same period in the past four years. China's total signing volume is 100,000 tons, a 35% year - on - year decrease, and Vietnam's total signing volume is 590,000 tons, a 56% year - on - year increase [5] 2. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Supply - Demand Report - Due to the lag in sales, the February USDA report reduced the US cotton export forecast by 200,000 bales, and the ending inventory increased by the same amount accordingly. It also raised the forecast of China's cotton production by 108,000 tons to 7.62 million tons. The overall adjustment is basically in line with market expectations and has little impact on the price trends of ICE and ZCE futures [6] 3. Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Cotton - Since the end of last year, the basis between domestic and foreign cotton has continued to widen. As of this Wednesday, the price difference between the 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price of imported cotton price index within 1% tariff has reached 3,600 yuan/ton, and the price difference under the sliding - scale tariff has reached 2,400 yuan/ton. The relatively high domestic - foreign price difference limits the increase of Zhengzhou Cotton [7] 4. Price and Inventory Data - **Cotton and Yarn Price Changes**: - As of this Wednesday, the 328 cotton spot price index is 16,029 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is 14,745 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 135 yuan/ton; the basis between the two is 1,284 yuan/ton, a weekly expansion of 118 yuan/ton [49]. - The C32S yarn price index is 21,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 65 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Yarn is 20,590 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of - 5 yuan/ton; the basis between the two is 930 yuan/ton, a weekly expansion of 70 yuan/ton [49]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference Changes**: - This Wednesday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale tariff is 2,418 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 156 yuan/ton; the price difference with the port pick - up price of imported cotton within 1% tariff is 3,645 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 214 yuan/ton [52]. - The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price is - 37 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 14 yuan/ton [52]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: - This Wednesday, on the futures market, the spread between the main contract of Zhengzhou Yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is 5,845 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 70 yuan/ton [56]. - The immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn is - 1,791 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude is reduced by 36 yuan/ton week - on - week [56]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou Cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 11,969 lots; the total of Zhengzhou Yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 7 lots [63]

"除了历年来的中央一号文件十分给力外，新疆棉花产业的发展还离不开金融'活水'的辛勤浇灌。"孙涛 告诉记者，在当前我国特色优势农业高质量发展与乡村全面振兴的时代浪潮中，农产品期货正在悄然重 塑我国农业发展格局。 新疆闫氏德海农业科技有限公司负责人告诉记者，近年来他深深地感受到了棉花期货潜移默化的力 量。"棉花期货交割品标准能起到'优质优价'的引领作用，特别是在基差点价成为市场主流定价方式 后，产业链主体十分重视提高棉花品质。目前，我国重要的棉花主产区种植的棉花品种基本上都是优良 的，品种也较为集中。这不仅有利于提高我国棉花品质的整齐度，还有利于下游产业企业获得较多的高 品质原料，从而可以生产出众多符合市场需求的产品。"该负责人说。 "我平均每年要去新疆采购10多万吨皮棉，一部分销售给纺纱厂，另一部分用来进行期货套保交易。最 初，我的棉花现货业务和期货市场交叉很少，如今已紧紧地结合为一个整体，谁也离不开谁。"上海市 棉花贸易商王鹏告诉记者，棉花期货的价格发现功能，让他能够精准把握市场走势，以及合理规划采购 节奏和定价策略，有效规避现货价格波动带来的经营风险。近年来，随着棉花期货规则不断完善，特别 是棉花期货基准交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the cotton price will be volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, and bullish in the long term. The report does not explicitly provide a traditional investment rating such as "buy", "hold", or "sell" [3]. Core Viewpoints - The 26/27 annual cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be structurally reduced, and combined with water resource constraints and food planting requirements, the supply contraction expectation is clear. Although the spinning profit has declined month-on-month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which is conducive to maintaining the purchasing intention of yarn mills. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, commercial inventories are gradually accumulating. The new cotton basis for pre - sale before the end of January next year is 800 - 1100, and the spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton has strengthened this week. The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years. The Fed cut interest rates as expected in December 2026, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose in 2026, which boosts the risk appetite for commodities and indirectly supports cotton prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The 26/27 annual cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be structurally reduced, and supply contraction is expected due to water resource constraints and food planting requirements [3]. - **Demand**: Although the spinning profit has declined month - on - month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which helps maintain the purchasing intention of yarn mills [3]. - **Inventory**: As new cotton is listed in large quantities, commercial inventories are gradually accumulating [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis for pre - sale of new cotton delivered before the end of January next year is 800 - 1100, and the spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton has strengthened this week [3]. - **Profit**: Although the spinning profit has declined month - on - month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which is conducive to maintaining the operation of yarn mills [3]. - **Valuation**: The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected in December 2026, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose in 2026, which boosts the risk appetite for commodities and indirectly supports cotton prices [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term cotton price is volatile with a slight upward trend, and bullish in the long term. The reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 year is the core theme, and attention should be paid to the extrusion of cotton yarn imports and the implementation rhythm of policies [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also wait and see. Pay attention to domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. Part Two: Cotton Fundamental Data - **US Textile and Apparel Imports**: The import structure is being re - configured. The report presents the monthly import volume data of US clothing and accessories from multiple countries including the world, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, India, and China from 2020 - 2025 [5][6][8]. - **EU Textile and Apparel Imports**: Mainly from China and Bangladesh, with a slight year - on - year increase [12]. - **Upstream Supply**: The inspection progress is faster than the same period [20]. - **Imports**: Cotton imports are restricted, while cotton yarn imports are increasing [27]. - **Upstream Inventory**: Seasonally rising [34]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: Finished products are seasonally destocking [42]. - **Mid - stream Factory Load**: The resumption of operation is slow [51]. - **Mid - stream Yarn Mill Profit**: Overall, losses are narrowing, and Xinjiang is profitable [56]. - **Terminal Consumption**: Exports are deteriorating [62]. - **US Cotton Market**: The annual processing volume data from 2020 - 2025 is presented. US cotton exports (signing and shipping) are slightly increasing year - on - year, and exports to China are sporadic. The US textile and apparel inventory is at a high level, and retail sales are increasing year - on - year [80][82][89][94]. - **Brazilian Supply**: The total export volume is increasing, but the proportion of exports to China is decreasing [97]. - **Indian Supply**: The window for importing Indian cotton yarn is open [100]. - **Australian Supply**: Exports to China remain at a high level [104]. Part Three: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: Fluctuating at a high level [110]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the 05 contract is relatively high year - on - year [120]. - **Managed Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton Futures**: Data from 2018 - 2026 is presented, including net long positions and long - position ratios [129]. - **US Cotton 03 - 05 Spread**: Data from 2021 - 2026 is presented [130].

为加速技术推广，石河子大学组织科研团队积极参与供需对接活动，通过现场路演精准匹配企业需求。 在转化过程中，科研团队创新采用分阶段收益模式，将转让收益与受让方产业化进程、市场收益深度绑 定，大幅降低了企业技术应用门槛，推动专利技术快速转化为现实生产力，为兵团棉花产业数字化转型 注入强劲动能。 本报乌鲁木齐讯（全媒体记者 马雪娇 谌慧） 近日，国家知识产权局公布2025年第三批专利转化运用优 秀案例，石河子大学"棉花品质检测与质量追溯专利技术产业化，助力棉花产业数字化升级"案例入选， 成为全国20个优秀案例之一。 该案例整合9件专利形成专利组合并完成转化，转化金额达1000万元。该套技术方案有效突破了传统棉 花品质检测技术瓶颈，构建起全链条数字追溯体系，不仅为棉花质量管控提供了坚实技术支撑，也为棉 花质量相关政策落地见效提供了技术保障。 ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Zheng Cotton Turns to Narrow - Range Fluctuation, Funds Flow Out Before the Festival - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report - **Report Date**: February 6, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Domestically, Zheng Cotton showed significantly reduced volatility and narrow - range fluctuations this week. With new cotton processing nearing completion, supply pressure is high. However, yarn prices remained stable or increased while cotton prices fell, and the downstream industry faced limited pressure. Zheng Cotton is expected to maintain short - term fluctuations with a limited range, and it's advisable to exit the market before the Spring Festival [56]. - Internationally, U.S. cotton export data is strong, with stable old - crop exports and record - high new - crop exports. Consumption has overall resilience. But macro factors may have some suppression, such as a weak global economy and a strong U.S. dollar. U.S. cotton is in a weak - range fluctuation, but there is strong support around 60 cents per pound, and low prices may trigger purchases [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Zheng Cotton had a slight weekly decline of 0.61%, and ICE cotton had a weekly decline of 2.09% [12]. - **Spot Prices**: The cotton price index declined this week. The 3128 index dropped 171 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index dropped 158 yuan/ton [17]. - **Import Situation**: In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [22]. - **Inventory Situation**: - In the first half of January, the commercial cotton inventory was 5.8623 million tons, and the market entered an accelerated inventory - building phase [27]. - In December, the yarn inventory was 25.12 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.67 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.76 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.33 days [32]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S remained flat, the price of C32S increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the price of JC40S remained flat [37]. - **Zhengshang Institute Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 410. There were 10,500 warehouse receipts and 1,283 effective forecasts, totaling 11,783 [42]. - **U.S. Cotton Export Situation**: As of January 29, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 248,300 bales, and the net sales in the next year were 114,900 bales [50]. - **U.S. Weather Situation**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. was 37.4%, with different drought - level percentages in each category [53]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - **Domestic Market**: Zheng Cotton will maintain short - term fluctuations, and it's advisable to exit the market before the Spring Festival due to high supply pressure but limited downstream pressure [56]. - **International Market**: U.S. cotton will maintain a weak - range fluctuation, but there is strong support around 60 cents per pound, and low prices may trigger purchases despite macro suppression [56].