金融数据与经济
Search documents
金融数据映射的经济与股市的变化:——2025年9月金融数据点评
Huachuang Securities· 2025-10-16 08:44
Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2025, new social financing (社融) increased by 3.53 trillion yuan, up from 2.57 trillion yuan in the previous period[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.7%, slightly down from 8.8%[1] - M2 year-on-year growth was 8.4%, down from 8.8% in the previous month[1] - New M1 year-on-year growth was 7.2%, an increase from 6% previously[1] Group 2: Key Indicators and Trends - M1 year-on-year increase of 1.35 trillion yuan reflects a rise in household demand rather than corporate cash flow improvement[3] - Non-bank deposits saw a significant year-on-year decline of 1.06 trillion yuan in September, down 1.97 trillion yuan compared to the same month last year[5] - Corporate medium- and long-term loans decreased by 500 million yuan year-on-year, indicating a potential easing of production investment[4] Group 3: Seasonal Effects and Market Implications - Seasonal factors contributed to the decline in non-bank deposits, typically observed at the end of the quarter due to banks' assessment pressures[2] - The observed trends in September do not yet indicate a weakening of short-term equity market activity, pending further data in October[2] - The relationship between non-bank deposits and equity market activity suggests that the recent decline may not signify a turning point for market engagement[5]