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钒钛股份:动态点评:钒电池装机大增叠加钢铁用钒好转,钒价有望触底回升-20250325
EBSCN· 2025-03-25 08:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in vanadium battery installations alongside improvements in vanadium demand from the steel sector, suggesting a potential recovery in vanadium prices [1][3] - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to decline by 71.6% to 75.4% year-on-year, primarily due to weak demand in the steel sector and a substantial drop in the price of vanadium pentoxide [2] - The supply of vanadium for energy storage is expected to grow by 35% in 2025, indicating a robust market for all-vanadium flow batteries [2] Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 2.6 to 3.0 billion yuan for 2024, a significant decrease from the previous year [2] - The average price of vanadium pentoxide in 2024 is expected to be 80,800 yuan per ton, down 25.9% from 109,000 yuan per ton in 2023 [2] Market Outlook - The installed capacity of all-vanadium flow batteries is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated 440 MW/1742 MWh expected to be connected to the grid in 2024, a 700% increase from 2023 [3] - The demand for vanadium in the steel sector is anticipated to improve due to regulatory changes, which may support a recovery in vanadium prices [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 2.8 billion, 5.2 billion, and 7.0 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 96, 52, and 39 [4] - Revenue is expected to decline from 13.6 billion yuan in 2024 to 14.6 billion yuan in 2025, before reaching 15.4 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Valuation - The report suggests that the current decline in stock price has already reflected the anticipated drop in performance, and with the expected recovery in vanadium prices, the company's products may see a revaluation [4]