振华股份发布 2025 年半年度业绩报告：2025 年公司上半年 实现营业总收入 21.90 亿元，同比增长 10.17%；实现归母净 利润 2.98 亿元，同比增加 23.62%。其中，公司 2025Q2 单季 度实现营业收入 11.70 亿元，同比增长 12.52%，环比增长 14.71%；实现归母净利润 1.81 亿元，同比增长 16.12%，环 比增长 53.82% 投资要点 ▌三极共振量价齐升，盈利弹性加速释放 当前铬盐行业正处于"需求扩张+供给有序"的景气上行通道 中，公司作为近十年行业主要产能增量深度受益行业发展红 利。当下铬盐的应用领域仍在不断扩张，新兴领域如燃气轮 机、商用飞机发动机、军工等逐步放量，叠加新能源储能领 域（如铁铬液流电池）需求增长预期，有望带动行业长期增 长。在此背景下，公司 2025 年上半年三板块量价齐升，贡献 业绩增长的主要增量。从经营数据看，上半年公司重铬酸 盐 、 铬 的 氧 化 物 、 铬 盐 联 产 产 品 的 产 量 分 别 同 比 +46.46%\+3.00%\-7.23% ；销量分别同比 +23.78%\+5.25%\+7.93% ；营收分别同比 +16. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue reaching 2.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 298 million yuan, up 23.62% year-on-year [6] - The company experienced a significant increase in sales volume and prices for its products, particularly in Q2 2025, with a notable rise in gross margin and net margin [6] - The company is participating in the bankruptcy restructuring of Xinjiang Shenhong, which may optimize the industry landscape, and has ongoing projects expected to contribute to future growth [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 4.46 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.7% [5] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 703 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 48.8% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.99 yuan for 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Vanadium Titanium Co., Ltd. is facing significant challenges in achieving profitability despite efforts to transform its business model and enhance investor confidence through share buybacks by its controlling shareholder, Pangang Group [1][3][7]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Pangang Group has increased its stake in Vanadium Titanium Co., Ltd. by acquiring 18.76 million shares, representing 0.20% of the total share capital, for approximately 48.33 million yuan [1][3]. - The controlling shareholder plans to invest between 50 million to 100 million yuan in purchasing additional shares to support the company's value and stabilize the capital market [3]. Group 2: Company Background and Strategy - Established in 1993 and listed in 1996, Vanadium Titanium Co., Ltd. has transitioned into the largest vanadium product manufacturer globally, with an annual production capacity of 44,200 tons of vanadium pentoxide and over 25% market share [4]. - The company has diversified its product offerings, including titanium dioxide and vanadium products, and is pursuing opportunities in the liquid flow battery storage sector [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company's revenue from 2020 to 2024 showed fluctuations: 10.579 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan, 15 billion yuan, 14.3 billion yuan, and 13.2 billion yuan, while net profits significantly dropped from 1.456 billion yuan in 2021 to 289 million yuan in 2024 [6]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to falling prices of vanadium and titanium products, with gross margins for vanadium products decreasing from 27.45% in 2023 to 10.40% in 2024 [6][8]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The company is heavily impacted by price volatility in vanadium and titanium products, with potential losses if vanadium pentoxide prices fall below 70,000 yuan per ton [11]. - The titanium dioxide industry faces overcapacity issues, and regulatory challenges from the EU may restrict exports, further complicating the company's market position [11]. Group 5: Liquid Flow Battery Sector - Vanadium Titanium Co., Ltd. has invested in liquid flow battery technology but faces challenges in cost reduction, with current costs ranging from 0.6 to 0.8 yuan per kWh [10][12]. - Despite the advantages of liquid flow batteries, such as safety and long cycle life, their high costs compared to lithium-ion batteries hinder widespread adoption [12][13].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry [4] Core Insights - The recent decrease in tungsten quotas by 4,000 tons in April, combined with seasonal production lows and environmental inspections, has led to a tightening supply and a significant increase in tungsten prices, reflecting its strategic value [1][3] - A meeting in Changsha emphasized the need for stricter regulation of strategic mineral exports, indicating a focus on controlling the entire supply chain from extraction to export [1][2] - The market for antimony is experiencing price adjustments due to weak downstream demand, despite a tight supply situation [2][14] - Molybdenum prices are supported by strong demand from the manufacturing sector, with a notable increase in procurement volumes [9][11] Summary by Sections Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices have risen to 3,505 CNY/ton, up 5.7% from previous lows, indicating robust demand from the manufacturing sector [9][11] - The total procurement volume for molybdenum iron steel exceeded 7,600 tons in early May, reflecting ongoing strong demand [11] Antimony - Antimony prices have seen a decline, with 2 antimony ingot prices at 219,000 CNY/ton, down 4.3% from the previous week, due to weak demand in downstream industries [2][14] - The supply remains tight, but the market is cautious with purchasing decisions [15] Magnesium - The average price of magnesium ingots has increased to 18,780 CNY/ton, with a 9.3% decrease in total inventory, indicating a tightening supply situation [19][20] Tungsten - The average price of black tungsten concentrate has risen to 167,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a 10% increase, driven by reduced quotas and supply constraints [3][22] - The APT price has also increased significantly, indicating a recovery in profitability for producers [3][22] Vanadium - The vanadium market remains stable with prices for vanadium pentoxide holding steady at 76,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a cautious market environment [27][29]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][55]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was negatively impacted by a decline in vanadium product prices, leading to a revenue drop of 8.15% year-on-year to CNY 13.209 billion and a significant net profit decrease of 73.03% to CNY 285 million [10][55]. - The company is a major global supplier of vanadium products and has a strong production capacity, which positions it well for future growth as the vanadium industry recovers and the vanadium battery market expands [3][55]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 132.09 billion, down 8.15% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 2.85 billion, down 73.03% [10]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of CNY 27.35 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.16% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.52% [10]. - The sales volume of vanadium products increased by 6.74% to 53,600 tons, while titanium dioxide sales grew by 1.10% to 258,000 tons, and titanium slag sales fell by 24.18% to 146,100 tons [19]. Price and Margin Analysis - The company's gross margin decreased by 6.81 percentage points to 7.59% in 2024, with vanadium product prices dropping by 26% year-on-year [2][19]. - The gross margin for vanadium products fell by 17.05 percentage points to 10.40%, while titanium products saw a slight margin decline [2]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading global supplier of vanadium products, with a comprehensive production capacity that includes 442,000 tons of vanadium products and 300,000 tons of titanium dioxide annually [3]. - The vanadium battery business is expected to be a significant growth driver, with a partnership established to supply 20,000 tons of ammonium vanadate in 2025, representing a 35% increase from 2024 [44]. - A new 60,000-ton molten salt chlorination titanium dioxide project was launched in 2024, enhancing the company's market influence [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 5.92 billion, CNY 7.83 billion, and CNY 9.32 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 40, 30, and 26 [55]. - Revenue is expected to grow to CNY 138.7 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5% [54].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth potential of the vanadium flow battery market, driven by increasing project tenders and expected supply agreements, despite current challenges in the vanadium price and steel demand [2][3][5]. Group 1: Project Developments - Multiple vanadium flow battery projects are currently in the bidding phase, including significant projects in Yunnan and Hami, with each project designed for 100MW/400MWh capacity [2]. - The installed capacity of vanadium flow batteries is expected to maintain high growth through 2025, indicating a robust market outlook [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2024, projected between 260 million to 300 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 71.6% to 75.4% due to poor demand in the steel sector and a substantial drop in vanadium pentoxide prices [3]. - The average price of vanadium pentoxide in China for 2024 is expected to be 80,800 yuan per ton, down 25.9% from 109,000 yuan per ton in 2023 [3]. Group 3: Supply Agreements and Market Trends - The company has signed a framework agreement to supply 20,000 tons of vanadium raw materials to Dalian Rongke for 2025, marking a 35% increase from the 14,822 tons supplied in 2024, reflecting continued demand in the vanadium flow battery sector [4]. - The total installed capacity of vanadium flow batteries is projected to reach approximately 440MW/1,742MWh in 2024, a significant increase of 700% from 2023 [5]. - The steel sector's demand for vanadium is expected to improve due to the transition of national standards for rebar, which may positively influence vanadium prices as inventory levels decrease [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The installation of vanadium batteries is expected to increase significantly, coupled with improvements in the demand for vanadium in the steel sector, indicating a potential bottoming out and recovery in vanadium prices [1][3]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to decline by 71.6% to 75.4% year-on-year, primarily due to weak demand in the steel sector and a significant drop in the price of vanadium pentoxide [2]. - The supply of vanadium for energy storage is expected to grow by 35% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting a robust outlook for the all-vanadium flow battery storage market [2]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 260 to 300 million yuan for 2024, a decrease from 1,058 million yuan in 2023, largely due to a 25.9% drop in the average price of vanadium pentoxide from 109,000 yuan per ton in 2023 to 80,800 yuan per ton in 2024 [2]. - Revenue is projected to decline from 14,380 million yuan in 2023 to 13,589 million yuan in 2024, representing a 5.5% decrease [5]. Vanadium Price Outlook - The report indicates that the installed capacity of all-vanadium flow batteries is expected to grow by 700% in 2024, with a total grid-connected scale of approximately 440 MW/1,742 MWh [3]. - The demand for vanadium in the steel sector is anticipated to improve following the implementation of mandatory standards for ordinary hot-rolled rebar, which may enhance vanadium-nitrogen demand [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The estimated average price of vanadium pentoxide for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be 81,000, 85,000, and 90,000 yuan per ton, respectively [4]. - The expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 280 million, 520 million, and 700 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 96, 52, and 39 times [4][5].