钒行业反转

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钒钛股份:2024年年报点评:钒产品价格下跌拖累业绩,期待行业反转-20250408
Minsheng Securities· 2025-04-08 08:23
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][55]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was negatively impacted by a decline in vanadium product prices, leading to a revenue drop of 8.15% year-on-year to 132.09 billion yuan and a significant net profit decrease of 73.03% to 2.85 billion yuan [10][55]. - The company is a major global supplier of vanadium products and is expected to benefit from the recovery of the vanadium industry and the expansion of the vanadium battery application market, with projected net profits of 5.92 billion yuan, 7.83 billion yuan, and 9.32 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [55]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 132.09 billion yuan, down 8.15% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.85 billion yuan, down 73.03% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 2.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 75.87% [10][55]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 27.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.16% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 17.52%. The net profit for Q4 was 1.02 billion yuan, down 45.91% year-on-year but up 122.04% quarter-on-quarter [10][55]. Sales Volume and Pricing - In 2024, vanadium product sales increased by 6.74% to 53,600 tons, while titanium dioxide sales grew by 1.10% to 258,000 tons. However, titanium slag sales fell by 24.18% to 146,100 tons [19][55]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 6.81 percentage points to 7.59%. The market price of vanadium pentoxide dropped by 26% year-on-year, while titanium dioxide and titanium slag prices increased by 2% and 17%, respectively [19][55]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading global supplier of vanadium products, with a comprehensive production capacity that includes 175,000 tons of titanium concentrate and 44,200 tons of vanadium products annually [43][55]. - The vanadium battery business is expected to be a significant growth driver, with a partnership established to supply 20,000 tons of ammonium vanadate in 2025, representing a 35% increase from 2024 sales [44][55]. - The company has successfully launched a 60,000-ton molten salt chlorination titanium dioxide project, enhancing its market influence [44][55]. Investment Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 5.92 billion yuan, 7.83 billion yuan, and 9.32 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 40, 30, and 26 [55][56]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 138.7 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 5.0% [54][55].