综合来看，当前，钾肥市场需求表现不旺，并非终端的刚需疲软，而是受下游对当前价格存在抵触情 绪、其他肥种市场分流等因素干扰。从市场基本面来看，钾肥需求预期依旧向好。 对于后市走势，一方面，终端需求仍有释放空间，市场货源供应持续偏紧，对价格形成支撑；另一方 面，政策调控压力不容忽视。综合分析，短期内，钾肥价格大概率将以稳为主，而后续进口数量的变 化，将成为影响市场走势的关键变量。 值得关注的是，以色列化工集团（ICL）已与中国客户签订2026年标准氯化钾供应合同，到岸合同价格 为348美元。这一价格与此前11月25日俄罗斯乌拉尔钾肥公司和中国采购联盟达成的2026年大合同价格 持平。 上周，氯化钾价格保持高位坚挺，主要原因还是货源紧张。国产钾生产企业逐渐进入冬季检修期，明年 元旦后产量会进一步减少。青海60%粉晶官方到站价在3100元（吨价，下同），市场流通价格在 3150~3200元，近期货源稀缺。 进口钾港口库存量在240万~245万吨。据称，国储检查和年度任务完成，导致进口钾和国产钾可售货源 数量不足。但业内认为，元旦后货源情况或有好转，钾肥价格将面临压力。港口62%白钾价格在 3150~3500元，低位价 ...

Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, leading to a steady increase in prices, with the average domestic price of potassium chloride reaching 3237 RMB/ton, up 28.66% year-to-date and 34.37% year-on-year [1][2] - Major domestic potassium fertilizer producers are expected to continue their performance growth in Q4 due to resource control, cost advantages, and production capacity [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global potassium ore reserves exceed 4.8 billion tons, primarily located in Canada, Laos, Russia, and Belarus, which together account for 79% of the total [2] - China's potassium fertilizer imports are projected to reach 12.63 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.07%, with an import dependency exceeding 60% [2] - The domestic demand for fertilizers has surged due to the autumn farming season, while international production cuts have begun to impact supply, with significant reductions expected from Belarus and Russia [2] - As of October 31, domestic potassium chloride port inventory was approximately 2.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.48%, indicating a "more in the north, less in the south" situation [2] Industry Expansion and Capacity Development - Leading companies in the potassium fertilizer industry are accelerating overseas resource development, with Salt Lake Co. planning to increase its potassium fertilizer production capacity to 10 million tons per year by 2030 [3] - Yara International has a potassium chloride production capacity of 3 million tons per year and is focused on overseas resources, with significant reserves in Laos [3][4] - Cangge Mining and Dongfang Iron Tower are also actively pursuing overseas potassium fertilizer projects, with Cangge Mining having a current capacity of 1.2 million tons per year [4] Performance Outlook - Major potassium fertilizer companies in the A-share market have reported significant revenue and net profit growth in the first three quarters of the year, with Yara International's revenue reaching 3.867 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 55.76% [5][6] - The potassium chloride price is expected to remain supported in Q4 due to tight supply and stable demand, with low domestic port inventories and international contract prices providing additional support [6] - Salt Lake Co. plans to adopt a market-oriented approach in its potassium fertilizer production, focusing on aligning production with market demand and enhancing product effectiveness [6][7]

Summary of Conference Call on Potash Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the potash fertilizer industry, focusing on the supply and pricing dynamics influenced by geopolitical events and market conditions [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Supply Status**: - China's potash supply remains stable in the short term, with approximately 110,000 tons of potassium chloride shipped via the China-Europe Railway in September, marking the highest volume in three months despite being slightly below average levels [1][5]. - The closure of the Poland-Belarus border has not significantly impacted potash deliveries yet, but it may lead to reduced shipping volumes in the future [2][17]. 2. **Price Trends**: - Port prices for potassium chloride have slightly decreased by about 200 RMB per ton, reflecting weak market demand and the impact of state reserve releases [1][7]. - The current guidance price for 62% potassium chloride is 3,150 RMB per ton at ports, providing a market support level [8]. 3. **Demand Dynamics**: - There is a notable differentiation in demand for various fertilizers; urea demand remains relatively strong, while potash and phosphate fertilizers face pressure [1][9]. - The agricultural planting guidance influences fertilizer demand, with low-priced fertilizers seeing increased demand, particularly for high-value crops that require more potash [11]. 4. **Future Cost Projections**: - Import costs for potash are expected to rise in Q4 and into 2026, with anticipated contract prices ranging from 340 to 350 USD per ton [3][5]. - The average monthly import volume is expected to stabilize around 150,000 to 200,000 tons, with September's volume being below this average [6]. 5. **Market Challenges**: - Domestic urea production is facing oversupply issues, leading to prices that are lower than international levels, creating a vicious cycle of price reductions among local manufacturers [10]. - The nitrogen fertilizer association is actively discussing solutions, but significant improvements are not expected in the short term due to strong policy influences [10]. 6. **Impact of New Projects**: - The expansion of the Laos project by Asia Potash International to 5 million tons will significantly impact the Asia-Pacific market, although it is not expected to drastically affect global prices in the short term [3][16]. 7. **Long-term Price Stability**: - Future price fluctuations for potash are anticipated to increase in frequency but with reduced amplitude, leading to a more stable price environment compared to previous years [14][18]. 8. **Key Factors to Monitor**: - Attention should be focused on the outcomes of major contract negotiations and actual port delivery volumes, as these will significantly influence market trends [20]. Additional Important Insights - The agricultural policy adjustments post-pandemic have led to a decrease in overall fertilizer usage, impacting demand across various types of fertilizers [11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and their effects on supply chains remain a critical area for monitoring, particularly regarding the Belarus and Russia potash supply dynamics [2][17].

Summary of Potash Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The potash market is experiencing a significant price increase, with prices rising approximately 26% year-on-year due to strong production cuts from Belarus and the establishment of large contracts in China and India [2][3][4]. Key Points Price Trends - Short-term price expectations indicate a stabilization phase from June to July, with port prices projected to fluctuate between 3,000 and 3,200 RMB during the autumn demand period in August and September [2][3]. - A rebound in demand is anticipated in October and November, with high volatility expected in prices [3][4]. - The price is not expected to fall below the range of 2,900 to 2,950 RMB in the near term [5]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The autumn potash market is expected to see a total demand of around 9 million tons, driven by an increase in planting area [6]. - Port inventories have fallen below the safety line of 250,000 tons, positively impacting market sentiment, although demand dispersion may limit price increases [2][6]. - Domestic potash supply is constrained, with significant reductions from local producers like Zangge Holdings, which will halt production for a month, reducing supply by approximately 100,000 tons [12]. International Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, are likely to impact global potash supply and shipping costs [9][11]. - Russian Ural's production cuts of 700,000 tons in Q3 and an annual reduction of about 1 million tons are expected to tighten global supply further [9]. Long-term Outlook - For the latter half of 2025, potash prices are projected to remain high, with fluctuations of around 100 RMB expected during the winter storage period [8]. - The price of methanol is anticipated to stabilize between 2,800 and 3,300 RMB, influenced by the cost of Laotian potash and national reserve adjustments [10]. Policy and Market Structure - National policies have a varying impact on the fertilizer market, with less control over autumn fertilizers compared to spring fertilizers [7]. - The large contracts signed by China are crucial, as they provide a price advantage over spot market prices, ensuring agricultural cost efficiency and supply security [14]. Import and Trade Dynamics - China's border trade for potash remains stable, with approximately 700,000 to 800,000 tons imported in the first half of 2025 [19]. - The pricing of border trade potash is slightly lower than large contracts, but the impact on domestic prices is minimal due to the market's centralized nature [21][22]. Inventory and Supply Challenges - The replenishment of port inventories is expected to take at least two months, with limited supply from Laos posing challenges [23]. - Factors influencing potash prices include autumn fertilizer demand, food security policies, and global supply gaps [23][24]. Conclusion - The potash market is characterized by rising prices driven by supply constraints and geopolitical factors. The outlook suggests continued high prices into 2026, with significant attention needed on international developments and domestic supply dynamics.