Summary of the Conference Call on the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Strategy for 2026 Industry Overview - The petrochemical and chemical industry is currently experiencing a bottoming phase due to excessive capital expenditure driven by surging demand for new energy, leading to a supply-demand mismatch. Capital expenditure has significantly contracted in 2024, limiting new capacity additions. With the global interest rate cut cycle and improved trade relations, demand is expected to recover, benefiting stock trading strategies [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Forecast**: It is anticipated that the oil price will stabilize around $60 per barrel in 2026, supported by OPEC+ halting production increases and a reduction in U.S. shale oil output. The price may fluctuate between $60 and $65, with potential temporary dips below $50 [4]. - **Natural Gas Demand**: The demand for natural gas is expected to grow significantly due to its role as a transitional clean energy source, with a projected 50% increase in apparent consumption by 2040 compared to 2024 or 2025. This trend is favorable for upstream companies like PetroChina [4][7]. - **Potash and Phosphate Industry**: International potash prices are expected to remain high due to natural demand growth and oligopolistic market conditions. Domestic companies like Yara International may see increased volumes due to China's strong reliance on potash resources. In the phosphate sector, the value of phosphate rock is being reassessed due to its application in energy storage, with demand expected to rise [5][6][8]. - **Fluorochemical Industry**: The fluorochemical sector is projected to have a positive outlook in 2026, with rising prices for refrigerants and PVDF driven by battery demand. The domestic PVDF industry operates at only 50% capacity, but a tight balance is expected for lithium battery-grade PVDF in 2026 [9]. - **Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)**: 2025 marked the beginning of SAF in Europe, with mandatory blending requirements. The demand and prices for SAF are expected to rise, with significant growth potential in regions like Singapore, South Korea, and Japan [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: The report highlights investment opportunities in various segments, including potash, phosphate, fluorochemical, and sustainable aviation fuel. The overall growth rate in these sectors is expected to remain robust over the next couple of years, promising good investment returns [12]. - **Impact of Battery Technology**: The demand for phosphate rock in the battery sector is projected to grow rapidly, with phosphate rock usage in battery production nearing 20%. The declining quality of domestic phosphate rock will further increase consumption rates, driving price and value reassessment [8]. - **Performance of Major Companies**: PetroChina is expected to benefit from stable growth in its natural gas business, while Sinopec may see recovery in its refining segment, aided by low-cost advantages and expanded overseas price differentials [7]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the petrochemical and chemical industry's outlook for 2026, along with specific investment opportunities and company performances.

米高集团(09879)发布截至2025年9月30日止6个月的中期业绩，该集团取得收益23.52亿元，同比增加 10.52%;公司拥有人应占溢利9484.2万元，同比增加17.54%;每股盈利0.1元。 公告称，收入增加主要归因于本集团在钾肥市场所提供产品的整体平均售价上升，部分被该期间销量下 降所抵销。 ...

公告称，收入增加主要归因于本集团在钾肥市场所提供产品的整体平均售价上升，部分被该期间销量下 降所抵销。 智通财经APP讯，米高集团(09879)发布截至2025年9月30日止6个月的中期业绩，该集团取得收益23.52 亿元，同比增加10.52%;公司拥有人应占溢利9484.2万元，同比增加17.54%;每股盈利0.1元。 ...

这种现象也让村镇的干部头痛。只有变分散焚烧为集中处理，才能防止户户冒烟。为此，一些地方统筹 了部分涉农资金，拨付到乡镇后，统一购买钾肥送到村里，村民可以拿准备焚烧的生物质来交换钾肥。 这些生物质经收集后，被统一转运到专门的焚烧处理企业集中焚烧，村民还可自行前往领取草木灰。 笔者认为，秸秆焚烧治理也可借鉴治理无序烧制菜园土的做法。农业农村部门可充分发挥相关资金的引 导作用，大力提高秸秆资源化利用水平，也有利于农业绿色转型发展。 笔者最近调研发现，在南方一些丘陵地区，村民会把房前屋后的杂草、各种藤蔓等生物质收集起来焚 烧，再在上面覆一层土，文火慢烧。虽然每一个点释放的烟雾量并不大，但分布广、数量多，也会对周 边空气质量造成影响。经询问，村民大量焚烧这类生物质，一是因为确实没处堆存，二是为了获得一些 含钾的菜园土。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The chemical sector overall experienced a decline of 7.47% during the week of November 17-21, 2025, ranking 29th among all sectors, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.57 percentage points [4][22] - The report highlights a continued trend of divergence in the chemical industry for 2025, recommending focus on sectors such as synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance was notably poor, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 3.90% and the ChiNext Index by 6.15% during the same period [4][22] - The report indicates that the chemical sub-sectors showed varied performance, with the least decline in refining chemicals (-0.58%) and the most significant decline in fluorinated chemicals (-11.00%) [23] Key Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the upcoming quota policies for refrigerants, which are expected to enter a high prosperity cycle starting in 2024, with a continuous reduction in supply for second-generation refrigerants [5] - The electronic specialty gases market is highlighted as a critical area for domestic substitution opportunities due to high technical barriers and increasing demand from semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [6][8] - The light hydrocarbon chemical trend is identified as a global movement, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production, which is expected to enhance the valuation of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is experiencing accelerated domestic industrialization, driven by the shift of downstream industries to domestic production and the need for supply chain security [9] - The potassium fertilizer market is anticipated to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a potential recovery in prices [10] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12]

事件描述 公司发布2025 年三季报，2025Q3 实现营业收入7.23 亿元，环比-35.76%；实现归母净利9.51亿元，环 比-9.72%；实现扣非归母净利9.48 亿元，环比-10.43%。 事件评论 铜板块，巨龙成绩维持亮眼。2025Q3 巨龙贡献投资收益6.86 亿元，环比+5%。Q3 巨龙迎来量价双升， 铜价、钼价Q3 均环比走高，期间实现铜产销量4.97 万吨。巨龙二期选厂精选系统已成功试车，德庆普 尾矿库主排洪隧洞下游段也已安全精准贯通，全面保障二期顺利投产。 锂板块，受矿证手续导致7.17-10.11 停产影响，Q3 锂产销大幅下滑，拖累锂板块业绩。 2025Q3 公司锂盐产销分别为851 吨、330 吨；销售均价6.51 万/吨（含税），销售成本3.42 万元/吨，环 比下降近0.5 万。目前公司已于10.11 正式复产，年度产销计划均调整为8510 吨，预计Q4 实现产销2489 吨、3710 吨，Q4 伴随销量价格双回暖，预计锂板块将为公司贡献业绩增量。 钾板块，成本优化持续进行。2025Q3 贡献归母净利约3.56 亿元。2025Q3 公司钾肥产销分别为21.64 万 吨、24.7 ...

前三季度主业盈利质量同比显著提升，双主业战略实现破局。2025 年前三季度公司实现营业收入3.22 亿元，同比+34%；2025Q3 实现营收1.14 亿元，同比+43.44%。在精细化工领域，公司持续完善研发与 生产体系，不断推动科技创新和产业升级，并积极践行ESG 可持续发展理念，为市场提供优质产品与 服务；在新能源业务方面，通过组件精细化维护、优化运维路径等措施，保障存量电站高效运行，光伏 EPC 业务则依托创新解决方案，签约量稳步提升。 投资建议：我们预计公司25-27 年分别实现营收4.82/9.01/11.02 亿元，归母净利润0.1/1.12/1.85 亿元，维 持"推荐"评级。 开发煤矿低浓瓦斯利用项目，布局能源利用高价值赛道。此前，兆新还与亿扬能源签署了《战略合作框 架协议》及《煤矿低浓瓦斯（乏风）销毁及余热综合利用项目投资合作协议》，共同出资设立兆亿碳合 能源科技（杭州）有限公司，持有55%股权。该合资公司将以投资、建设并运营"钱家营煤矿低浓度瓦 斯利用项目"及同类型的瓦斯利用项目。双方将创新打造"矿区资源回收+新能源协同"模式，提升矿区能 源自给率与供应稳定性，更引领行业从单一"能源供给 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the basic chemical industry [3][7]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry has shown a continued recovery in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 19,924.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.69%, and net profit of 1,170.62 billion yuan, up 7.58% year-on-year [3][10]. - The industry is experiencing a bottom recovery trend, with most sub-industries showing improved performance in revenue and profit compared to the previous quarter [11][14]. - The profitability of the industry is stabilizing, with gross margin at 17.69% and net margin at 6.17%, both showing slight year-on-year increases [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Profitability and Recovery - The basic chemical industry has seen revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant improvements in Q3 compared to Q2 [10][11]. - Among 33 sub-industries, 18 reported revenue growth, with notable increases in agricultural chemicals, fluorochemicals, and new energy-related sectors [3][14]. 2. Profitability Trends - The overall gross margin for the basic chemical industry was 17.69%, a slight increase from the previous year, while the net margin was 6.17%, also showing a year-on-year rise [18][19]. - Sub-industry performance varied, with fluorochemicals, potassium fertilizers, and synthetic resins showing significant improvements in profitability [23][24]. 3. Financial Indicators - The industry maintained a low debt-to-asset ratio, with improved operating cash flow and a decrease in construction projects, indicating a potential easing of overcapacity pressures [7][18]. - The inventory turnover days have slightly increased, suggesting a decline in operational efficiency [7][18]. 4. Regional Performance - Chemical companies in Henan province underperformed compared to the overall industry, with declines in both revenue and profit [7][16]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements and those with strong resource attributes, such as potassium fertilizers and phosphorus chemicals, in the context of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7][8].

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华安证券指出，基础化工和化学制品行业呈现多元化发展趋势。三代制冷剂进入高景气周期，供给 端受配额政策限制，需求端受益于热泵、冷链及东南亚市场增长。合成生物学在能源结构调整下迎来发 展机遇，生物基材料成本下降推动需求爆发。COC聚合物国产化进程加速，光学和包装领域应用拓 展。轻烃化工成为全球烯烃行业趋势，低碳排特性契合碳中和目标。钾肥价格触底回升，国际巨头减产 及粮食种植意愿提升改善供需。MDI行业供给格局向好，高技术壁垒和需求稳健支撑长期发展。 化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从市场中选取涉及农药、化 肥、涂料等化学工业子行业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映化工领域内龙头企业及成长性良好公 司的整体表现。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅 ...

巴西对钾矿的迫切需求 数据显示，巴西96%的钾肥都依赖进口，而全球钾肥的生产主要集中在加拿 大、俄罗斯和白俄罗斯三国，三者的总产量占据了全球市场的69.4%。这种市场垄断的格局，使得巴西 的农业安全变得非常脆弱。特别是自俄乌冲突爆发以来，俄罗斯的钾肥供应一度中断，这导致巴西农业 遭遇了不小的冲击。与此同时，在中美贸易战升温的背景下，中国对巴西大豆的需求激增，巴西农业迎 来了发展机遇，但肥料的短缺问题也暴露无遗。 前言 全球贸易保护主义逐渐升温，粮食安全问题已经成为各国竞争的关键领域。作为农业大国，巴西 正在通过一项高达25亿美元的投资，力图改变自己在全球粮食产业链中的劣势地位。这笔巨额投资的核 心目标，是开发位于亚马孙雨林地下的钾矿，这种被誉为农业命脉的资源，将成为巴西打破贸易壁垒的 重要工具。然而，在这片被誉为地球之肺的雨林中进行开采，不仅要突破长期以来对进口的依赖，还必 须在保障生态环境的前提下实现经济发展。巴西能否在发展与保护之间找到平衡？ 更为严峻的是，2025年巴西氯化钾的进口价格，从2025年一季度的319美元/吨飙升至359美元/吨，持续 上涨的成本压缩了巴西农业的利润空间。幸运的是，巴西国家石 ...