【冠通期货研究报告】 期现价格共振上行 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 28 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面高开高走，日内偏强。价格继续上扬，且盘面连续飘红，提振情 绪，备肥积极性尚佳。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1580-1610 元/吨，反弹 10 元/吨左右，高端报价在河北地区。基本面来看，日 产大幅偏高于历年同期，气头装置季节性停产以前，上游工厂装置日产将高位 运行，下月起气头检修将增多。复合肥工厂开工继续增加，一方面冬储肥生产 以后，生产负荷逐步爬升，虽近期预收单状况欠佳，但目前待发依旧充足，预 计下周将继续提升开工率。本期复合肥工厂开工环比回升 2.45 个百分点。其他 工业需求以稳定为主，三聚氰胺本期开工环比回落 1.4 个百分点，原料价格高 企，制约下游开工率。近期价格上涨以来，下游终端拿货速度有所提高，农业 经销商拿货积极性明显增加，叠加储备需求，库存连续数周去化，本周环比回 落 5.1%。整体来说，现货价格连续上涨，下游拿货意愿尚可，期货跟涨，但预 计随着价格上涨，压力位逐渐靠近，盘面将有回调，窄幅区间波动为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 167 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Range-bound with a bullish bias - Inter-period: Wait and see - Inter-commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The trading atmosphere of urea has improved, and the spot price has been raised. The restart of shutdown plants in Shanxi and Hebei and the increase in the operating rate of large enterprises in Hubei have led to an overall increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers. The operating rate of melamine has decreased, with only rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off-season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium- and long-term supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose, and the gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Driven by reserve demand and the increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, the sales of urea enterprises have improved, with inventory reduction at factories and a slight increase in port inventory. The highest domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia, and the reserve demand in the Northeast has increased, leading to inventory reduction in Inner Mongolia. Continued attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off-season storage rhythm. In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. The urea import tender of India's IPL closed on November 20, with the lowest CFR prices of $418.40/ton at the East Coast and $419.50/ton at the West Coast. A total of 24 suppliers' quantities were received, and the lowest price was higher than the previous one. Continuous attention should be paid to the sentiment and rhythm of domestic spot procurement. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,668 yuan/ton (+14). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was quoted at 1,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price in Shandong was 1,650 yuan/ton (+20), and the price in Jiangsu was 1,640 yuan/ton (+20). The price of small lump anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was -18 yuan/ton (+6), the basis in Henan was -18 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis in Jiangsu was -28 yuan/ton (+6). [1] Urea Production - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of November 27, 2025, the production profit of urea was 120 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,014 yuan/ton (+10). [1] Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. [2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.06% (+2.45%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.80% (-1.40%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.65 days (-0.47). [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical point of style rebalancing by the end of 2025, with the ongoing "anti-involution" policy reshaping investment logic in cyclical industries [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, the A-share market has shown a significant "technology + cyclical" dual-driven pattern, indicating a transition from a single growth line to a balanced allocation of "growth + value" [1] - The technology sector has experienced a substantial cumulative increase, with the electronics industry rising by 45% and the communication equipment sector by over 38%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's 14.7% [4] - The concentration of institutional holdings in the technology sector has reached nearly historical peaks, with TMT sector holdings exceeding 40.16%, indicating a risk of overcrowding [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed three major measures for the chemical industry in 2026, signaling a shift from mere advocacy to substantial implementation of the "anti-involution" policy [4] - The "anti-involution" policy has extended to industry self-discipline, with products like long silk, PTA, and urea achieving industry collaboration through "production limits to maintain prices + price alliances + punitive agreements" [10] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a supply-side improvement driven by "downward capacity cycles + policy-guided elimination," with fixed asset investments in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September 2025 [5][6] - The demand side is supported by both domestic recovery and overseas improvement, with textile and apparel exports increasing by 8.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the chemical industry under the "anti-involution" wave include selecting leading companies with strong management systems and cost advantages [14] - Specific sectors to focus on include: 1. Petrochemicals: Expected to see a turning point due to supply contraction and demand upgrades [15] 2. Coal chemicals: Benefiting from policy catalysts and cost advantages, with potential for profit recovery [16] 3. Polyester filament and PTA: Leading sectors in the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, currently entering an inventory digestion phase [17]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical point of style rebalancing by the end of 2025, with the ongoing "anti-involution" policy reshaping the investment logic in cyclical industries [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, the A-share market has shown a significant "technology + cyclical" dual-driven pattern, indicating a transition from a single growth line to a balanced allocation of "growth + value" [4] - The performance improvement in cyclical sectors is sustainable, with a 23% year-on-year increase in the exit scale of backward production capacity in industries like chemicals and non-ferrous metals as of Q3 2025 [4] Group 2: Drivers of Market Style Shift - Three main supports for the current market style switch include: 1. The technology sector's significant cumulative increase, with the electronics industry up 45% and communication equipment over 38% year-to-date as of November 2025, far exceeding the 14.7% rise of the CSI 300 index [6] 2. Institutional holdings in the technology sector nearing historical peaks, with TMT sector holdings surpassing 40.16% [6] 3. Clear policy signals from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding the chemical industry, enhancing the certainty of supply-side contraction in cyclical industries [6] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The core logic for supply-side improvement in the chemical industry is driven by "downward capacity cycles + policy-guided exit," with fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials sector decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September 2025 [8][11] - The chemical industry has significant advantages over traditional cyclical industries in capacity optimization efficiency, industry collaboration, and high-end transformation paths [12] Group 4: Demand Recovery - The recovery in demand for the chemical industry is supported by both domestic and overseas factors, with domestic engines including improved real estate conditions and a resurgence in textile exports [13][14] - China's chemical product sales have maintained the top global position, with sales amounting to approximately €2.24 trillion in 2023, accounting for 43.1% of global sales [16][17] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in the Chemical Sector - Investment opportunities in the chemical industry under the anti-involution wave include: 1. Selecting leading companies with strong management and cost control [20] 2. Focusing on three reversal areas: petrochemicals, coal chemicals, and polyester filament + PTA, with specific companies highlighted for their potential [21][22][23]

尿素日报 | 2025-11-27 厂内库存去库，现货成交好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-11-26，尿素主力收盘1654元/吨（+24）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1630 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1630元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1620元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-24 元/吨（-24）；河南基差：-24元/吨（-34）；江苏基差：-34元/吨（-34）；尿素生产利润100元/吨（+0），出口利润1004 元/吨（-8）。 供应端：截至2025-11-26，企业产能利用率83.91%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为136.39 万吨（-7.33），港口样本 库存量为10.00 万吨（+1.80）。 需求端：截至2025-11-26，复合肥产能利用率34.61%（+4.29%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.20%（+4.72%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.65日（-0.47）。 尿素成交在价格小幅回调后再次转强。复合肥东北开工逐渐提升，山东湖北地区排产增加，开工率提升。三聚氰 胺开工提升，刚需采购。淡储陆续入场。新疆中能已出尿素，随着新增产能释放，中 ...

截至9月30日，赤天化股东户数5.76万，较上期减少15.09%；人均流通股22191股，较上期增加17.77%。 2025年1月-9月，赤天化实现营业收入15.69亿元，同比减少7.96%；归母净利润-1.52亿元，同比减少 340.46%。 分红方面，赤天化A股上市后累计派现3.77亿元。近三年，累计派现0.00元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 今年以来赤天化已经3次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为6月18日。 资料显示，贵州赤天化股份有限公司位于贵州省贵阳市观山湖区阳关大道28号赤天化大厦，成立日期 1998年8月28日，上市日期2000年2月21日，公司主营业务涉及氮肥和甲醇化工业务、医药流通业务、医 药制造业务。主营业务收入构成为：尿素55.06%，甲醇28.10%，复合肥7.61%，医疗服务4.31%，其他 (补充)3.29%，硫酸铵0.76%，煤炭0.64%，硫磺0.18%，其他0.05%。 赤天化所属申万行业为：基础化工-农化制品-氮肥。所属概念板块包括：低价、甲醇概念、煤化工、化 肥、民营医院等。 11月25日，赤天化盘中上涨2.06%，截至13:41，报2.48元/股，成交3923.10万元，换手 ...

资料来源： Wind、钢联、隆众石化、海证期货研究所 储备需求支撑，尿素期价呈现较强抗跌性 2 ——尿素周度行情分析 海证期货研究所 2025年11月21日 现货市场价格走势 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2024-11-21 2025-02-21 2025-05-21 2025-08-21 东北地区 山西地区 河北地区 河南地区 山东地区 江苏地区 安徽地区 福建地区 1 储备需求支撑，尿素期价呈现较强抗跌性 01合约期货价格走势 ➢ 本周尿素主力01合约震荡上扬，盘面价格呈现较强抗跌性。截止周四收盘UR2601合约报收于1665元/吨。 尿素01合约山东地区基差情况 尿素01&05价差走势情况 ➢ 现货市场：本周尿素现货市场各地区价格小幅上调，东北集中采购带动国内尿素交投有所好转。受此影响工厂订 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2301合约 2401合约 2501合约 2601合约 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 05-12 06-11 0 ...

进入2025年四季度，国内尿素市场步入传统储备季。尽管尿素日产量维持高位波动，但在储备需求集中 释放、出口集港稳步推进及复合肥行业负荷回升等多重利好因素支撑下，市场情绪较前期有所好转，尿 素企业库存呈现稳步下降态势。期现市场的价格波动既反映了短期供需格局的变化，也蕴含着对后市政 策与出口预期的预判。在此背景下，尿素价格整体呈现偏强运行特征。 近期，复合肥行业开工率上升的同时库存下降，说明其产销率开始提升。根据隆众资讯统计，复合肥产 能利用率在34.61%，环比提升4.29个百分点。从主产区看，东北地区部分装置开始低负荷生产，少数企 业满负荷生产中；湖北、山东地区部分中规模企业排产增多，拉升区域内产能利用率；河北地区前期停 车装置部分恢复生产；河南地区除规模企业产量增加外，部分中小型企业处于停车状态；西南、苏皖等 地区维持以销定产中。未来企业陆续排产冬储肥，预计复合肥产能利用率继续窄幅提升。复合肥企业库 存降至65.48万吨，与去年同期基本持平，库存压力已得到有效缓解。 出口集港缓解库存压力 出口作为调节今年尿素供需矛盾的关键因素，其表现始终是期现市场关注的焦点。强劲的出口数据不仅 缓解了国内新增产能带来的供应 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the price rebound, the downstream response was poor, and the orders received since the weekend were weak. Domestic demand still couldn't support the high - price operation. The India tender price also failed to boost the market. However, exports continued, and there was still demand support from subsequent off - season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage. It is expected that the futures market will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices moved up due to the continuous rebound of futures and improved downstream demand. But since the weekend, the downstream market has generally resisted high prices, resulting in poor factory orders and the prices are running weakly and stably [3] Futures Dynamics - From November 18 - 22, the urea futures market showed different trends each day. As of November 24, the main January contract of urea was at 1638 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the settlement price on November 17. The weekly trading volume was 1738.90 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 121.16 million tons; the open interest was 724.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.79 million tons. The export speculation sentiment weakened, and the futures market returned to the fundamentals. The weak domestic demand negatively affected the market. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. As of November 24, the basis of the 01 contract was 12 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 74 yuan/ton. As of November 17, the 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 11 yuan/ton. On November 24, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7570, a week - on - week increase of 387 [5][8] Urea Supply - side - From November 13 - 19, the weekly urea output was 142.04 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.35 million tons and a 3.16% increase. The weekly average daily output was 20.29 million tons. Coal - based and small - particle output increased, while gas - based output decreased slightly. In the next cycle, the output is expected to continue to grow. On November 24, the national daily urea output was 20.75 million tons, an increase of 0.04 million tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.51%. The price of steam coal was weakly stable, and the supply was expected to change little. The domestic LNG price decreased. The price of synthetic ammonia moved up, and the price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea weakened. The methanol price decreased, and the price difference between methanol and urea also decreased [11][12][14] Urea Demand - side - As of November 21, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased slightly. After the end of the environmental protection inspection last week, the production of compound fertilizer enterprises gradually resumed, and some Northeast devices started operation. It is expected that the production of winter - storage compound fertilizer will continue in the next period. From November 15 - 21, the compound fertilizer operating rate was 34.61%, a 4.29% increase from the previous week and 2.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.2%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points from the previous period and 6.17 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Although the operating load of melamine increased, the downstream panel market was weak, and the demand support was insufficient [16] Inventory Data - As of November 21, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 143.72 million tons, a decrease of 4.64 million tons from the previous week and a 3.13% decrease. The inventory in Northeast China decreased smoothly. The port sample inventory was 10 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from the previous week, and the port inventory is expected to continue to increase with exports [19] International Market - This week's India tender price was lower than expected. The US cancelled the import tariff on major nitrogen fertilizers. As of November 21, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in China changed, and the FOB prices in other regions also had different fluctuations [21][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The urea market is in a narrow - range shock pattern. The recovery of urea maintenance devices has increased the daily output. Agricultural fertilizer demand is gradually weakening, but the increase in the start - up rate of compound fertilizers and the strengthening of other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin provide support. Against the background of high daily output and high inventory, the continuous upward momentum of urea is insufficient, and the reference range for the 01 contract is 1600 - 1700 [3]. Summary by Directory Market Changes - The weekly price center of urea has moved slightly upward. On November 21, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1654 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from last week, with a maximum of 1675 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1641 yuan/ton during the period. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1630 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton from last week, with a growth rate of 2.26%. The main - contract basis of urea has continuously strengthened, and on November 21, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 24 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 68) - (- 24) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea fluctuated in a narrow range, and on November 21, the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 75) - (- 70) yuan/ton [3][4][7]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of China's urea plants is 85.85%, an increase of 1.92 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises is 72.89%, unchanged from last week, and the daily average output of urea is 20.29 tons. Next week, some maintenance devices in Shanxi, Henan, Yunnan and other places are planned to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase slightly [3][10]. Cost - The anthracite market is running stably. As of November 20, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi is 900 - 960 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as last week [3][14]. Demand - In the north, winter wheat is in the concentrated sowing period, with more than 50% sown in Shandong, nearly 30% in Henan, nearly 70% in Shanxi, nearly 40% in Jiangsu, nearly 70% in Hubei, more than 40% in Sichuan, and more than 30% in Chongqing. In the south, late rice is in the large - scale harvesting stage, with the harvest basically completed in Hunan and Jiangxi, about 30% in Zhejiang, and more than 50% in Guangxi. The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 34.61%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory is 65.48 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from last week. Recently, the start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased, and the speed of finished product destocking has slowed down. The support of other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin has strengthened [3][22]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory is 124.6 tons, a decrease of 3.7 tons from last week. Urea port inventory is 27.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts is 7183, totaling 14.366 tons, unchanged from last week [3][28].