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研报掘金丨东吴证券:维持藏格矿业“买入”评级,钾锂铜扩产同步推进
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-10-21 06:28
Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Cangge Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 2.75 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.3% [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 950 million yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 66.5% but a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year [1] Lithium Business Outlook - Cangge Lithium officially resumed production, with the annual production and sales plan adjusted down by 2,490 tons, indicating strong support at the bottom for lithium prices [1] - The supply-demand landscape is expected to improve significantly next year, with the lithium business continuing to contribute to profit growth [1] Project Developments - The second phase of the Julong expansion project is set to commence production by the end of 2025, with annual copper production expected to reach 300,000 to 350,000 tons, and the company's equity output projected at 92,000 to 108,000 tons per year [1] Price Trends and Profit Forecast - With lithium prices rebounding from the bottom and copper prices remaining stable, the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 3.82 billion, 5.73 billion, and 8.64 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 48%, 50%, and 51% [1] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 22x, 15x, and 10x [1] Competitive Advantages - The company has a significant cost advantage in lithium carbonate, with simultaneous expansion in potassium, lithium, and copper production [1] - The "buy" rating is maintained for the company [1]