2025 年 07 月 03 日 玉龙铜矿三期扩建工程核准，铜矿产量增长空间 打开 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-07-02 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 17.37 | | 总市值（亿元） | 414 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2383 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2383 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 14.26-19.39 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 551.67 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 西部矿业 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《西部矿业（601168）：玉龙铜 矿完成改扩建，铜矿产量将持续增 长》2024-03-21 2、《西部矿业（601168）：玉龙铜 矿改扩建项目顺利投产，矿山持续 发力》2023-12-08 3、《西部矿业（601168）：Q3 毛利 同比环比增长，玉龙铜矿改扩建临 近投产》2023 ...

证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 2025 年 07 月 02 日 宏观专题 相关研究 德邦证券 7 月研判及金股 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 宏观研判：攻守兼备、以逸待劳 德邦证券 2025 年 7 月金股组合 化工 卓越新能（688196.SH）：中国生物柴油工业化生产先驱；生物柴油紧平衡格局 延续，关注原料替代与贸易突围；反倾销危局催动全球布局，渠道自主重构破贸易壁 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 副标题：楷体四号，非必填 当前影响整个市场的宏观变量主要是三个方面——内需修复进程、政策落地效果 和外部环境变化，眼下宏观领域的一系列分歧本质上是对这三方面宏观变量存在 不同的假设和推演，我们认为资产配置要攻守兼备、以逸待劳，在不确定性中寻找 确定性，把握趋势并做好应对。 一、外部环境方面，中美关税谈判的缓和有助于缓释基本面及市场风险偏好的压 力，中长期中美关系依旧处于一个竞争高于合作的阶段，特朗普政府依旧将"去风 险化"作为重要战略方向，这意味着 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 2025年07月02日 德邦证券7月研判及金股 宏观专题 投资要点: 资格编号: S0120524070001 预期. 后者则是立足绝对收益思维,建议关注铜、铝、稀土、锡等;债券:预计利 率债低位震荡概率较高。信用利差已处于历史级"低位",建议关注类债资产与转 债机会。 · 德邦证券 2025年7月金股组合 化工 卓越新能(688196.SH):中国生物柴油工业化生产先驱;生物柴油紧平衡格局 延续,关注原料替代与贸易突围;反倾销危局催动全球布局,渠道自主重构破贸易壁 请务必阔读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券分析师 张浩 邮箱:zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 · 宏观研判:攻守兼备、以逸待劳 ● 当前影响整个市场的宏观变量主要是三个方面 -- 内需修复进程、政策落地效果 和外部环境变化,眼下宏观领域的一系列分歧本质上是对这三方面宏观变量存在 不同的假设和推演,我们认为资产配置要攻守兼备、以逸待劳,在不确定性中寻找 确定性,把握趋势并做好应对。 ● 一、外部环境方面,中美关税谈判的缓和有助于缓释基本面及市场风险偏好的压 力,中长期中美关系依旧处于一 ...

智通财经6月25日电，西部矿业(601168.SH)公告称，公司控股子公司西藏玉龙铜业股份有限公司收到西 藏自治区发展和改革委员会出具的《关于西藏玉龙铜业股份有限公司玉龙铜矿三期工程项目核准的批 复》，核准玉龙铜矿三期工程项目，铜矿生产规模由1989万吨/年增加至3000万吨/年。项目总投资47.93 亿元，项目建设内容包括新建1100万吨/年选矿厂，湿法冶炼规模由30万吨/年增加至100万吨/年。随着 三期项目建成投产，预计生产规模将达到3000万吨/年，铜金属量将达到18-20万吨/年，公司整体矿产铜 规模进一步增加。但项目建设尚需取得其他有关部门的相关手续，且存在自然地理环境恶劣的风险，可 能存在项目建设不及预期的风险。 西部矿业：玉龙铜矿三期工程项目获核准批复 总投资47.93亿元 ...

紫金矿业：卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿受淹井事件影响，下调铜产量指引 金十数据6月13日讯，紫金矿业公告，受淹井事件影响，卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿的2025年度矿产铜产量计划 指引将从52-58万吨下调至37-42万吨，预计公司2025年矿产铜权益产量将相应减少4.4-9.3万吨，公司 2025年度归母净利润预计将因卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿的减产受到一定影响。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Cangge Mining received a cash dividend of 1.539 billion yuan from its associate company, Julong Copper, which is expected to positively impact the company's future operating performance [2][3] - Cangge Mining holds a 30.78% stake in Julong Copper, which has significant mineral resources including 25.61 million tons of copper and is undergoing expansion to increase copper production capacity [3] - The dividend is a result of Julong Copper's strong financial performance and will enhance Cangge Mining's cash flow and financial stability, supporting future development [3] Group 2 - On January 16, Cangge Mining announced a control transfer agreement with Zijin International Holdings, resulting in Zijin acquiring 24.98% of Cangge Mining's shares for a total of 13.729 billion yuan [4] - Following the completion of the acquisition on May 6, Zijin Mining now controls 26.18% of Cangge Mining, changing the controlling shareholder from Cangge Chuangtou to Zijin International Holdings [4] - Zijin Mining plans to enhance collaboration with Cangge Mining in resource, industry, and technology areas, aiming to unlock the economic potential of Cangge Mining's potassium and lithium resources [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 22.5 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company maintains a high dividend level and emphasizes the progress of the Yulong Copper Mine Phase III expansion [8]. - The company achieved a revenue of 50.03 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of 2.93 billion CNY, up 5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 16.54 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 51%, and a net profit of 808 million CNY, up 10% year-on-year [1]. Production and Performance Summary - In 2024, the company exceeded its copper production target with a total of 177,543 tons, a 35% increase year-on-year, and a completion rate of 112% [2]. - The average copper price in 2024 was 74,932 CNY/ton, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year increase [2]. - The company plans to produce 168,208 tons of copper in 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase [4]. Financial Forecast - The company aims to achieve total revenue of 55 billion CNY and a total profit of 5 billion CNY in 2025 [8]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 61.29 billion CNY, 63.08 billion CNY, and 65.70 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits of 3.57 billion CNY, 3.87 billion CNY, and 4.10 billion CNY [9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.50 CNY, 1.62 CNY, and 1.72 CNY, respectively [9]. Production Plans - The company plans to increase its lead and zinc production in 2025, with a target of 65,672 tons of lead and 124,581 tons of zinc, both showing year-on-year growth [4]. - The Yulong Copper Mine's processing capacity has been upgraded to 22.8 million tons per year, with ongoing expansion projects [8].

Group 1: Nuclear Power Industry - The State Council approved the construction of 10 nuclear power units, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook for the nuclear power sector in China [2][4][6] - From 2022 to 2025, China has consistently approved at least 10 nuclear power units annually, with a total of 44 units under construction as of April 2025, representing a significant increase in installed capacity [3][4] - Nuclear power is recognized as a clean and stable baseload energy source, with high utilization hours and relatively stable electricity prices, which are expected to drive revenue and profit growth for related companies [4][5][6] Group 2: ASEAN Economic Cooperation - The visit of President Xi Jinping to ASEAN countries marks a significant moment for deepening cooperation in trade, investment, and industry, contributing positively to regional and global economic development [8][9] - China and ASEAN are focusing on high-end manufacturing, mineral resource development, infrastructure cooperation, and agricultural consumption, aiming for mutual benefits and deeper integration of industrial chains [10][9] - The cooperation framework includes enhancing policy coordination, leveraging complementary advantages in technology and market, and improving trade and investment facilitation to stimulate regional growth [10][9] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Recent signals from the U.S. government regarding easing trade tensions with China have led to a temporary decline in gold prices, but medium-term prospects for gold prices remain bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and potential economic downturns in the U.S. [13][15] - Global gold ETF holdings and central bank purchases, particularly from emerging markets, indicate significant room for further accumulation of gold, supporting price increases [15][13] - The copper and aluminum sectors are expected to rebound due to favorable macroeconomic policies and a shift in market sentiment following the easing of trade tensions [15][16] Group 4: Agricultural Sector - He Feng Co. - He Feng Co. reported a significant turnaround in profitability for 2024, with a net profit of 3.42 billion yuan, compared to a loss in the previous year, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [18][19] - The company’s feed business faced challenges with a decline in sales volume and price, but the meat and poultry segments showed resilience and growth potential [19][20] - The company plans to achieve over 10% growth in feed sales in 2025, focusing on strategic transformations across product, channel, and management aspects [19][22] Group 5: Medical Devices - Yuyue Medical - Yuyue Medical's revenue for 2024 decreased by 5.09%, but the company is focusing on strategic investments to accelerate international expansion, particularly in the blood glucose management sector [24][25] - The Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) technology is identified as a key growth driver, with new products expected to significantly increase market penetration [27][29] - The company has made a strategic investment in Inogen to enhance its presence in the U.S. and European markets, indicating a commitment to long-term growth and shareholder returns [28][29]

评论： 公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 西部矿业（601168）2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 铜量价齐升带动业绩增长，资产减值略有拖累 事项： 铜 2025 年 04 月 29 日 目标价：17.4 元 当前价：15.44 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：马金龙 邮箱：majinlong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120003 证券分析师：刘岗 邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120002 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 238,300.00 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) | 238,300.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 367.94 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 367.94 | | 资产负债率(%) | 57.57 | | 每股净资产(元) | 7.52 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 21.28/14.26 | 市场表现对比图(近 12 个月) -27% -12% 3% 17% 24/04 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/04 2024-04-29~2025 ...

量：25Q1 公司铜钼锌铅等主营产品产销量显著增长。1）矿端，25Q1 公司矿产铜产量4.41 万吨，同比 +14.35%，环比+5.81%；矿产锌产量3.00 万吨，同比+18.17%，环比+6.95%；矿产铅产量1.67 万吨，同 比+38.38%，环比+32.76%；矿产钼产量1248 吨，同比+43.64%，环比+20.37%；铁精粉产量33.79 万 吨，同比+14.69%，环比-13.48%。展望未来，公司玉龙三期工程前期手续办理工作正在按计划推进， 此前已完成《三期工程开发利用方案》等12 项报告编制并取得评审意见，待前期手续全部办理完毕， 玉龙铜矿将开展三期改扩建项目，建成后采选规模将达到3000 万吨/年，未来仍具有明显增长潜力。 2）冶炼端，25Q1 冶炼铜（含湿法铜）产量9.01 万吨，同比+54.83%，环比+11.64%；冶炼锌产量3.37 万吨，同比+19.15%，环比+2.51%；由于冶炼铅2024 年2-9 月未生产，25Q1 冶炼铅产量4.37 万吨，同 比激增17.5 倍。相较24Q4，冶炼业务盈利能力也有明显边际改善。 价：25Q1 铜锌等价格明显上行，仍坚定看好内需增长 ...