Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The market is focusing on the Fourth Plenary Session. Steel prices may rebound slightly, but the weak fundamentals limit the rebound height, with a higher possibility of subsequent decline. Short - term is volatile and strong, while medium - to - long - term is weak [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term steel seasonal de - stocking is slow, and high inventory levels remain. Coking coal price increases pressure steel mill profits. Iron ore shipments are high, inventory is accumulating seasonally, and iron water is likely to peak. Short - term macro sentiment supports price rebound, but fundamentals limit the upside [22]. - **Coal and Coke**: Downstream coking plants and steel mills are restocking, and coking coal inventory structure has improved. Coking profits are severely damaged, and a second price increase for coke may occur next week. Steel demand is weakening, and potential negative feedback restricts the short - term rebound of coal and coke prices. If coking coal supply tightens in the fourth quarter and winter storage demand is released in mid - to - late November, the overall black industry valuation may rise [32]. - **Ferroalloys**: Sino - US frictions and weak steel fundamentals add pressure. Ferroalloy downstream demand is weak, and inventory is high. Without unexpected stimulus policies from the Fourth Plenary Session, ferroalloy prices will remain under pressure [50]. - **Soda Ash**: Market sentiment is volatile, and long - term supply pressure persists. Alkali plants are starting to accumulate inventory. Although exports in September exceeded 180,000 tons, upper - and middle - stream high inventory restricts prices, but cost provides support [63]. - **Glass**: Overall glass production and sales are poor, and upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Some production lines still have ignition intentions, and daily melting may continue to rise slightly. High inventory and weak demand suppress prices [90]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3046, 3109, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3250, 3265, and 3283 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spreads**: Rebar 01 - 05 month - spread was - 63 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - spread was - 15 yuan/ton on October 24, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 771, 750.5, and 730 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - 05 month - spread was 20.5 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: Daily average iron water production was 239.9 tons, 45 - port inventory was 14423.59 tons, and global shipments were 3333.5 tons on October 24, 2025 [27]. Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 month - spread was 204 yuan/ton [37]. - **Spreads**: The coking coal main contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 21 yuan/ton, and the coke main contract basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 130.8 yuan/ton on October 24, 2025 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On October 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 70 yuan/ton [51]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On October 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 258 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 42 yuan/ton [54]. Soda Ash - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1379, and 1229 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month - spread was - 60 yuan/ton [64]. - **Spreads**: The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was - 50 yuan/ton on October 24, 2025 [64]. Glass - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1236, 1327, and 1092 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month - spread was - 91 yuan/ton [91]. - **Sales**: From October 15 - 21, 2025, the Shahe glass production and sales rate ranged from 40% to 112% [92].