Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the closure of Qatar's LNG plant, global energy prices have strengthened, with the coking coal contract rising sharply today, and steel maintaining a volatile and moderately strong trend. However, the overall spot trading volume of steel is generally weak, and the speculative sentiment is low. The fundamentals of the steel industry continue to weaken, with high inventory, uncertain post - holiday demand recovery, and potential pressure on raw materials. After the Two Sessions, steel prices may return to fundamentals and face pressure. [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel is 3160 yuan, Beijing Jingye thread steel is 3100 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3240 yuan, and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3140 yuan [4] Market Judgement Related Prices - Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel is 3160 yuan, Beijing Jingye thread steel is 3100 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3240 yuan, and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3140 yuan [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to thread steel spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Important Information - After the Spring Festival in 2026, coal and coke enterprises have gradually resumed production, with a good capacity release trend. The proportion of enterprises with a capacity utilization rate of over 50% is 62.8%, 31.75% for 10% - 50%, and 5.45% for less than 10%. Compared with the same period last year, the industry's order pattern is balanced and operating smoothly, with 30.69% of enterprises having increased orders, 45.85% having flat orders, and 23.47% having decreased orders [8][9] - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, global shipyards received 49 new ship orders, with Chinese shipyards receiving 31, South Korean shipyards receiving 3, and shipyards in Italy, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and India also receiving relevant orders [9] Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to the basis of thread steel and hot - rolled coil contracts (01, 05, 10 contracts), price spreads between different contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01), volume - to - thread spreads, contract disk profits, cash profits of different steel products in different regions, and cost - related charts [14][16][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector declined today due to news about coking coal warehouse receipts. The spot trading volume of steel products was generally weak, with downstream industries gradually resuming operations, low speculative sentiment, and mainly low - price transactions [5]. - Last week's data showed that the production of the five major steel products continued to decrease, and steel mills were still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance. As the Spring Festival approaches, the total steel inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, and the overall social inventory pressure is greater than the mill inventory [5]. - Affected by the downstream shutdown during the festival, steel demand is still declining rapidly. Overseas manufacturing has gradually ended restocking, and hot - rolled coils have entered the off - season of demand, but the decline in demand is less than that of building materials [5]. - The overall fundamentals of steel continue to weaken. The enthusiasm for winter storage this year is insufficient. Currently, steel inventory is high, and post - holiday capital expenditure may fall short of expectations. The recovery of demand remains to be seen, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the production of molten iron this year, putting pressure on raw materials [5]. - However, the absolute price of steel is currently low, so the downward space is relatively limited. Recently, overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and the resonance of oil and precious metals has driven up the black metal sector. If the frictions intensify in the future, it may drive up the raw material cost of steel. But steel prices may still return to the fundamentals, and the pressure on steel prices remains [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Information - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3160 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye threaded steel is 3100 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3240 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3140 yuan (-) [4]. Market Judgments - **Trading Strategies** - Affected by the news of coking coal warehouse receipts, the black metal sector declined today. The overall spot trading volume of steel products was weak, and the downstream was still in the process of resuming. The speculation sentiment was weak, and low - price transactions were the main form. The fundamentals of steel continued to weaken, and the enthusiasm for winter storage this year was insufficient. Although the absolute price of steel was low and the downward space was limited, the pressure on steel prices remained. It is necessary to pay attention to the production of molten iron, downstream demand, overseas geopolitical frictions, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Unilateral trading should follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to threaded steel spread [7]. - **Important Information** - According to the production scheduling report of three major white - goods released by Industrial Online, the total production scheduling volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in March 2026 is 39.11 million units, a 4.0% decrease compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year. Specifically, the production scheduling of household air conditioners in March is 23.34 million units, a 6.1% decrease compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year; the production scheduling of refrigerators is 8.43 million units, a 1.6% increase compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year; the production scheduling of washing machines is 7.34 million units, a 3.4% decrease compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [7][8]. - According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [8]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple figures, including the base price of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil contracts (01, 05, 10 contracts), the price difference between different contracts, the spread between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel, the disk profit of different contracts, the cash profit of different regions and production processes, and the cost of electric furnaces. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][15][17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently facing a weakening fundamental situation. With the approaching Spring Festival, steel mills are entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode, resulting in a continued reduction in the overall production of the five major steel products, except for medium - thick plates which are still increasing production [5]. - Steel inventories are accelerating the process of accumulation, with the overall social inventory pressure being greater than the factory inventory. The demand for building materials is rapidly declining as downstream construction sites are gradually shutting down, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is also decreasing due to factors such as the decline in export licenses and the end of restocking by overseas manufacturing industries. However, the decline in demand for cold - rolled products still shows some resilience [5]. - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend before the Spring Festival. After the festival, capital expenditure may fall short of expectations, and the demand recovery situation remains to be seen. The pessimistic expectations of steel mills may also limit the level of hot metal production this year, putting pressure on raw materials [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Steel Spot Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3190 yuan, Beijing Jingye threaded steel is 3120 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3240 yuan, and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3140 yuan, with no price changes [4]. Market Judgments - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend before the Spring Festival [5][6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to threaded steel spread [6]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - **Threaded Steel**: This week, the small - sample production of threaded steel is 1690000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 225200 tons. The estimated apparent demand is 1019100 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 39.6% in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 457300 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 99400 tons, the social inventory increased by 573100 tons, and the total inventory increased by 672500 tons [8]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The production of hot - rolled coils this week is 3077600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14000 tons. The estimated apparent demand is 2961900 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.17% in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 93500 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 11000 tons, the social inventory increased by 104700 tons, and the total inventory increased by 115700 tons [9][10]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the basis of different contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, the price difference between different contracts, the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel, the disk profit of different contracts, and various profit and cost charts. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [13][17][19].

Group 1: Market Information - Current spot prices include Shanghai Zhongtian Thread at 3190 yuan, Beijing Jingye at 3120 yuan, Shanghai Angang Hot Rolled Coil at 3240 yuan, and Tianjin Hegang Hot Rolled Coil at 3140 yuan [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The steel futures market maintained a volatile trend today, with further decline in volatility. Last week, the overall production of the five major steel products decreased, but hot metal production increased. Steel mills are gradually entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode. Steel inventories are accumulating at an accelerated pace, with thread inventory accumulating faster than hot - rolled coil. The overall social inventory pressure is greater than the mill inventory. Due to the cold weather, downstream construction sites are gradually shutting down, and the demand for building materials is rapidly declining. Steel exports are affected by the decline in export licenses, and overseas manufacturing has ended the restocking process, leading to a decline in hot - rolled coil demand. The overall fundamentals of the steel market are weakening marginally [5] - It is expected that steel prices will maintain a volatile and weak trend before the Spring Festival. Currently, steel inventories are high, post - holiday capital expenditure may fall short of expectations, and the recovery of demand remains to be seen. The pessimistic expectations of steel mills may also limit the production of hot metal this year, putting pressure on raw materials. The positions of the main steel contracts are currently high, and attention should be paid to sudden capital movements before the holiday. Future focus should be on the resumption of coal mine production, hot metal production, downstream demand performance, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile and weak trend before the holiday [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio on rallies and continue to hold the short position on the hot - rolled coil to thread spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 4: Important Information - China's CPI annual rate in January was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.4% and the previous value of 0.80%. The CPI monthly rate in January was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% and the same as the previous value. The PPI annual rate in January was - 1.4%, better than the expected - 1.5% and the previous value of - 1.90% [8] - In 2025, the China Development Bank, as the main bank for infrastructure construction, issued loans of 1.64 trillion yuan to infrastructure in five major areas: network - type, industrial upgrading, urban, agricultural and rural, and national security. It supported the opening and operation of projects such as the Guangzhou - Zhanjiang High - speed Railway and the acceleration of projects like the Middle Route of the South - to - North Water Diversion Project's Yangtze River Water Diversion and Han River Supplement Project. It also promoted the construction of the "East - to - West Computing" project in the national hub nodes of the national integrated computing power network and actively served the construction of scientific and technological infrastructure [8][9] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes various charts related to steel, such as price charts, basis charts, spread charts, and profit charts for different contracts of thread and hot - rolled coil, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel futures market maintained a weak and volatile trend with low overall volatility, and the spot steel trading volume was generally weak. The overall production of the five major steel products decreased last week, but the hot metal production increased. Steel mills are gradually entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode. The total steel inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, with the inventory of rebar accumulating faster than that of hot-rolled coils, and the overall social inventory pressure is greater than that of the mill inventory. Recently, the weather has turned cold, and downstream construction sites have gradually stopped work, leading to a rapid decline in building material demand. Steel exports have decreased due to the decline in export licenses, and overseas manufacturing has gradually ended restocking, resulting in a decline in hot-rolled coil demand. The fundamentals of the steel market have weakened marginally. Recently, the continuous resumption of hot metal production, combined with the steel mills' need for restocking, has supported the raw material costs. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate following the macro sentiment before the Spring Festival. However, the current steel inventory is relatively high, and capital expenditure after the festival may fall short of expectations. The demand recovery situation remains to be seen, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may also limit the hot metal production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. Currently, the positions of the main steel contracts are relatively high, and attention should be paid to sudden capital actions before the festival. In the future, attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of coal mines, hot metal production, downstream demand performance, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - No specific content provided in the given text Market Research and Judgment - **Related Prices**: The spot prices are as follows: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3,190 yuan (-), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3,120 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3,250 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3,140 yuan (-) [5]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend before the Spring Festival [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - The new issue of the Cailian Press "C50 Wind Direction Index" shows that the financial data in January 2026 may have a "good start", but the overall level is weaker than that in the same period of 2025. The median forecast of market institutions for new RMB loans in January is 4.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.43 trillion yuan; the median forecast for new social financing is 7.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.05 trillion yuan. In terms of money supply, the month-on-month growth rate of M2 in January may decline marginally, while M1 may increase due to the low base effect of the Spring Festival [8][9]. - On February 6, 2026, the Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services of Brazil issued Announcement No. 6 of 2026, making a positive preliminary anti-dumping ruling on wire rods originating from China and Russia. It is recommended to continue the investigation without implementing temporary anti-dumping measures, and the time limit for making a final ruling in this case is extended to within 18 months from the date of filing [9]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the summary price of rebar and hot-rolled coil, the basis of different contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil, the price difference between different contracts, the disk profit of different contracts, the cash profit of different steel products, and the cost of electric furnaces. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [14][16][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to be in a low - level consolidation and fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking upward or downward trend opportunities, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the weekly fundamentals [1][3][2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Policy Information - Beijing has further optimized and adjusted the housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing the housing purchase conditions for non - Beijing household families, reducing the social security or individual income tax payment period for purchasing commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road from "3 years" to "2 years", and from "2 years" to "1 year" outside the Fifth Ring Road; families with multiple children can buy one more house within the Fifth Ring Road; the commercial loan interest rate no longer differentiates between first - and second - home purchases, and the minimum down payment ratio for second - home provident fund loans is reduced to 25% [2] Steel Production and Inventory Data - In mid - December, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 1.845 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%; the steel inventory was 16.01 million tons, an 8.6% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 2.6% increase from the same period last month [2] Cost and Profit Data - This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 3,041 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of 2,950 yuan/ton of common square billets on December 24th, the average loss of steel mills was 91 yuan/ton [2] Market Status - The finished steel fluctuated slightly yesterday, and the market contradictions were not prominent. Currently, the supply and demand of the steel market are both weak, and the macro environment is in a window period. The steel price fluctuates within a narrow range mainly under the influence of its own fundamentals [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Callback Operation" rating for the industry [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is in a low - level consolidation, and the finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday. The downstream demand is weak, and the market's expectation for future demand is further reduced due to the cooling weather. The market lacks upward drivers, so it is necessary to pay attention to the weekly fundamental changes of steel [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Content - **Cost and Profit Situation**: This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 3,091 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of common square billets of 2,970 yuan/ton on November 19th, the average loss of steel mills is 121 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32 yuan/ton. On November 19th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills is 3,336 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 4 yuan/ton, with an average profit loss of 117 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit loss of 12 yuan/ton [1] - **Concrete Mixing Station Data**: From November 12th to November 18th, the capacity utilization rate of 506 domestic concrete mixing stations surveyed by Centennial Building is 7.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.65 percentage points. The shipping volume is 1.5397 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29% and a year - on - year increase of 9.19% [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The market is focusing on the Fourth Plenary Session. Steel prices may rebound slightly, but the weak fundamentals limit the rebound height, with a higher possibility of subsequent decline. Short - term is volatile and strong, while medium - to - long - term is weak [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term steel seasonal de - stocking is slow, and high inventory levels remain. Coking coal price increases pressure steel mill profits. Iron ore shipments are high, inventory is accumulating seasonally, and iron water is likely to peak. Short - term macro sentiment supports price rebound, but fundamentals limit the upside [22]. - **Coal and Coke**: Downstream coking plants and steel mills are restocking, and coking coal inventory structure has improved. Coking profits are severely damaged, and a second price increase for coke may occur next week. Steel demand is weakening, and potential negative feedback restricts the short - term rebound of coal and coke prices. If coking coal supply tightens in the fourth quarter and winter storage demand is released in mid - to - late November, the overall black industry valuation may rise [32]. - **Ferroalloys**: Sino - US frictions and weak steel fundamentals add pressure. Ferroalloy downstream demand is weak, and inventory is high. Without unexpected stimulus policies from the Fourth Plenary Session, ferroalloy prices will remain under pressure [50]. - **Soda Ash**: Market sentiment is volatile, and long - term supply pressure persists. Alkali plants are starting to accumulate inventory. Although exports in September exceeded 180,000 tons, upper - and middle - stream high inventory restricts prices, but cost provides support [63]. - **Glass**: Overall glass production and sales are poor, and upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Some production lines still have ignition intentions, and daily melting may continue to rise slightly. High inventory and weak demand suppress prices [90]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3046, 3109, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3250, 3265, and 3283 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spreads**: Rebar 01 - 05 month - spread was - 63 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - spread was - 15 yuan/ton on October 24, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 771, 750.5, and 730 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - 05 month - spread was 20.5 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: Daily average iron water production was 239.9 tons, 45 - port inventory was 14423.59 tons, and global shipments were 3333.5 tons on October 24, 2025 [27]. Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 month - spread was 204 yuan/ton [37]. - **Spreads**: The coking coal main contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 21 yuan/ton, and the coke main contract basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 130.8 yuan/ton on October 24, 2025 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On October 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 70 yuan/ton [51]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On October 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 258 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 42 yuan/ton [54]. Soda Ash - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1379, and 1229 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month - spread was - 60 yuan/ton [64]. - **Spreads**: The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was - 50 yuan/ton on October 24, 2025 [64]. Glass - **Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1236, 1327, and 1092 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month - spread was - 91 yuan/ton [91]. - **Sales**: From October 15 - 21, 2025, the Shahe glass production and sales rate ranged from 40% to 112% [92].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Black Metal R & D Report [1][5][10][12][22][31][38][50][60] - Report date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [4] Group 2: Market Information Thread Steel - Futures prices: RB05 at 3259 yuan/ton (-21), RB10 at 3126 yuan/ton (-29), RB01 at 3208 yuan/ton (-29) [3] - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian at 3260 yuan/ton (-20), Nanjing Xicheng at 3380 yuan/ton (-20), Shandong Shiheng at 3320 yuan/ton (0), Tangshan Tanggang at 3210 yuan/ton (-10) [3] - Profits: 05 - contract thread steel disk profit at 18 yuan/ton (-23), 10 - contract at - 104 yuan/ton (-28), 01 - contract at - 25 yuan/ton (-30) [3] Hot - Rolled Coil - Futures prices: HC05 at 3403 yuan/ton (-17), HC10 at 3416 yuan/ton (-3), HC01 at 3403 yuan/ton (-10) [3] - Spot prices: Tianjin Hegang at 3400 yuan/ton (-10), Lecong Rigang at 3450 yuan/ton (10), Shanghai Angang at 3450 yuan/ton (0) [3] - Profits: 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit at 163 yuan/ton (-19), 10 - contract at 186 yuan/ton (-2), 01 - contract at 170 yuan/ton (-11) [3] Group 3: Market Judgment - **Related prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel at 3260 yuan (-20), Beijing Jingye at 3260 yuan (-10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3450 yuan (-), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3400 yuan (-10) [7] - **Trading strategy**: The black sector declined overall in the afternoon. Ferroalloys led the decline. Spot trading was generally weak, and speculative demand was weak. Steel production is resuming, with thread steel slightly reducing production and hot - rolled coil increasing. Five major steel products are accumulating inventory, and the inventory accumulation speed of thread steel is accelerating. Steel exports remain resilient, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is still strong. Affected by high temperatures and typhoons, the demand for construction steel is declining rapidly. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, and demand is seasonally declining. The focus of influencing prices will shift from policy to fundamentals. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and there is still pressure before the military parade [8] - **Specific trading strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile and weak; it is recommended to continue holding thread steel positive spreads; it is recommended to wait and see for options [9] - **Important information**: In July 2025, China's rebar production was 15.182 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the cumulative production from January to July was 113.387 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In July, the production of medium - thick wide steel strips was 18.414 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; the cumulative production from January to July was 132.435 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In July, the production of wire rods (coils) was 11.375 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the cumulative production from January to July was 78.959 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. The production schedule data for September shows that the domestic sales schedule for air conditioners is 5.082 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%, and the export schedule is 4.785 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6% [9][11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include thread steel and hot - rolled coil price trends, basis, spreads, disk profits, cash profits, cost differences, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [15][19][25][27][29][34][36][41][45][53][57][59][62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market showed a pattern of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and accelerating inventory accumulation this week, with the fundamentals weakening. However, the total steel inventory is still not high, the market's willingness to hold goods at low prices is acceptable, and the overall selling pressure is not significant. From the perspective of cost support, the iron ore is in a restocking state, there are still disturbing factors in the coking coal supply, and the scrap steel supply is also not very loose, so there is still support at the lower cost end. Macroeconomically, the data in July showed weak domestic demand, the real - estate continued to be weak, the investment in manufacturing and infrastructure turned negative, and the "anti - involution" policy may suppress investment, waiting for further policy efforts; overseas, the outlook is good under the support of interest - rate cut expectations and economic resilience. Overall, in the pattern of weak domestic and stable overseas macro - environment, the overall optimistic sentiment has cooled, the steel fundamentals show signs of weakening, especially the 10 - contract of rebar faces great warehouse - receipt pressure and strong resistance around 3250. However, there is still an expectation of supply contraction, and the total steel inventory is still not high, the market's willingness to hold goods at low prices is acceptable, and the cost end also has support, so the downside space is also limited. It is expected that the 10 - contract of rebar will have support around 3100, and hot - rolled coil will have support around 3350 [1][2][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - In the first half of the week, affected by the news of the suspension of lithium - ore production in Ningde, the production restrictions of rolling mills and sintering in Tangshan due to the parade, and the optimistic expectations before the coal - mine safety meeting, the market speculation sentiment heated up, and the futures market fluctuated upward. In the second half of the week, as the coal - mine meeting ended and the market thought the impact was less than expected, coupled with the release of the news of position limits on coking coal, the speculation sentiment significantly cooled. In addition, the steel data this week was weak and the inventory - accumulation rhythm accelerated, so the futures market showed a downward trend [1]. 3.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Supply**: This week, the daily consumption of hot metal and scrap steel in steel mills both increased slightly, indicating an increase in crude - steel production. From the perspective of production scheduling and maintenance, the hot - metal production will remain at a high level and fluctuate, and there are no obvious signs of production reduction. In terms of profits, the profits of long - process steel mills are still considerable, while the profits of short - process steel mills in some regions are lower than the valley - electricity profits, but the decline is limited, so the steel mills have insufficient motivation for self - initiated production reduction. Policy - wise, there are news of sintering production restrictions in some regions, and Tangshan's independent rolling enterprises will stop production from August 20th to September 6th due to environmental protection requirements. Whether the blast furnaces will be affected later still needs further tracking, but the production restrictions on rolling mills and sintering may indeed have a certain impact on production [2]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products showed a significant month - on - month decline this week. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar was far lower than market expectations and performed poorly. The apparent demand for non - listed steel products slightly rebounded this week. Overall, the total apparent demand for steel products decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to seasonal factors. The apparent demand for steel products calculated from steel supply and inventory is still at a relatively high seasonal level, indicating that the current demand is not bad in absolute terms [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products showed an accelerated accumulation beyond the seasonal norm this week. Both the factory inventory and the social inventory increased significantly, but the total inventory is still at a relatively low seasonal level. The inventory of non - listed steel products continued to accumulate this week and is currently at a relatively high seasonal level, only lower than last year's level [2]. 3.3 Basis, Month - to - Month Spread, Regional Spread, and Variety Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar narrowed this week, indicating that the spot market in Hangzhou is under certain pressure, which is also confirmed by the rapid increase in local inventory this week. In contrast, the basis in South China, Central China, and North China did not change significantly, but the basis in Guangzhou is at a relatively low level, indicating that the performance of rebar in this area is relatively poor. Overall, the rebar shows an obvious weakening trend, especially in Hangzhou, the distribution center. With a large increase in inbound volume and a significant rise in inventory, there is a tendency for reverse arbitrage in the rebar market. Meanwhile, the basis of Zhangjiagang hot - rolled coil widened significantly, and the basis of hot - rolled coil in North China, Northeast China, etc. also widened, indicating that the spot demand for hot - rolled coil still performs well [3]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: Due to the weak performance of rebar in the spot market and the strong performance of hot - rolled coil in the spot market, and the large warehouse - receipt pressure on the near - month contract of rebar, the 10 - 01 contract of rebar continues to maintain a reverse - arbitrage pattern, while the hot - rolled coil shows a positive - arbitrage pattern, and this state is expected to continue [3]. - **Regional Spread**: In terms of the regional spread of rebar, the performance of rebar in North China is better than that in East and South China. In terms of the month - on - month performance of the regional spread of hot - rolled coil, the northern region is better than the southern region. Among them, the basis in South China remained unchanged, the basis in the northern region widened, and the spread with the northern region showed a weakening trend [3]. - **Variety Spread**: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to expand. From the spot level, the demand for hot - rolled coil still performs well, and there is still room for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar to expand. The 10 - contract is expected to expand to around 300 [4]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the spot profits of both long - process and short - process steel mills showed obvious signs of contraction. However, large long - process steel mills still have a profit of over 100, and short - process steel mills are at the break - even point of valley - electricity profits. The on - paper profits also showed a contraction trend. From the perspective of the accelerated inventory accumulation of finished products, the spot profits should further contract, and the corresponding on - paper profits are also difficult to expand. However, the rumors of production restrictions often disturb the market, so it is still necessary to wait and see for on - paper profit positions [4]. 3.5 Data Overview - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Futures Prices**: The closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts of rebar decreased by 17, 3, and 25 respectively; the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts of hot - rolled coil increased by 3, 6, and 11 respectively. The 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - to - month spreads of rebar changed by - 14, 22, and - 8 respectively; the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - to - month spreads of hot - rolled coil changed by - 3, - 5, and 8 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar increased by 20, 9, and 36 respectively [6]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Spot Prices**: The aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou decreased by 10, 20, 10, and 40 respectively, while the price in Tianjin remained unchanged. The aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai and Shenyang increased by 10, while the price in Lecong remained unchanged. The basis of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts of rebar in Shanghai changed by - 3, - 17, and 5 respectively; the basis of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai changed by 7, 4, and - 1 respectively [7][9]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Spot Spreads**: The regional spreads of rebar (Hangzhou - Beijing, Guangzhou - Beijing, and Guangzhou - Hangzhou) changed by - 30, - 20, and 10 respectively; the regional spreads of hot - rolled coil (Lecong - Shanghai, Lecong - Shenyang, and Shanghai - Shenyang) changed by - 10, - 10, and 0 respectively. The spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenyang increased by 30, 20, and 10 respectively [9]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Overseas - Related Data**: The FOB export prices of hot - rolled coil in China, India, and the CIS increased by 5, 10, and 15 respectively, while the prices in Japan remained unchanged, and the price in Turkey decreased by 2. The CFR import prices of hot - rolled coil in Southeast Asia, the Middle East increased by 5 and 10 respectively, while the prices in the EU remained unchanged, and the price in India decreased by 1 [10]. - **Steel Fundamental Data**: The production of rebar decreased by 0.73, the production of hot - rolled coil's commercial rolls increased by 0.31, and the production of internal - supply rolls increased by 0.39. The inventory of long - process and short - process steel mills' rebar increased by 2.55 and 1.51 respectively. The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.34, and the daily scrap - steel consumption of 255 steel mills increased by 0.6128 [10]. - **Raw Material Prices and Steel Mill Profits**: The price of PB powder (Rizhao Port, 61.5%) increased by 2, the price of metallurgical first - grade coke (Rizhao Port) increased by 50, the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap increased by 10, and the price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged. The profits of long - process and short - process rebar changed by - 10.45 and 78.56 respectively. The on - paper profits of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts of rebar decreased by 20.1848, 18.0712, and 29.4872 respectively [11]. - **Building Materials Trading Volume**: The trading volume of building materials in China increased by 11408, the trading volume in the northern region decreased by 1026, and the trading volume in the southern region increased by 4150. The trading volumes in Beijing remained unchanged, and the trading volumes in Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Shanghai increased by 1350, 1700, and 830 respectively [11]. - **Fubao Electric - Furnace Cost and Profit**: The peak - electricity cost, flat - electricity cost, and valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces in different regions changed, and the profits also showed different degrees of change [12]. - **Five - Major Steel Products**: The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.85, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 8.54, the apparent demand for wire rods decreased by 1.05, the apparent demand for cold - rolled decreased by 2, and the apparent demand for medium - thick plates increased by 0.64. The production of rebar decreased by 0.73, the production of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.7, the production of wire rods increased by 0.71, the production of cold - rolled increased by 0.14, and the production of medium - thick plates increased by 1.6. The inventory of rebar increased by 30.51, the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.84, the inventory of wire rods increased by 5.93, the inventory of cold - rolled increased by 1.85, and the inventory of medium - thick plates increased by 1.48 [13].