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螺纹热卷日报-20250819
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 11:35
Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Black Metal R & D Report [1][5][10][12][22][31][38][50][60] - Report date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [4] Group 2: Market Information Thread Steel - Futures prices: RB05 at 3259 yuan/ton (-21), RB10 at 3126 yuan/ton (-29), RB01 at 3208 yuan/ton (-29) [3] - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian at 3260 yuan/ton (-20), Nanjing Xicheng at 3380 yuan/ton (-20), Shandong Shiheng at 3320 yuan/ton (0), Tangshan Tanggang at 3210 yuan/ton (-10) [3] - Profits: 05 - contract thread steel disk profit at 18 yuan/ton (-23), 10 - contract at - 104 yuan/ton (-28), 01 - contract at - 25 yuan/ton (-30) [3] Hot - Rolled Coil - Futures prices: HC05 at 3403 yuan/ton (-17), HC10 at 3416 yuan/ton (-3), HC01 at 3403 yuan/ton (-10) [3] - Spot prices: Tianjin Hegang at 3400 yuan/ton (-10), Lecong Rigang at 3450 yuan/ton (10), Shanghai Angang at 3450 yuan/ton (0) [3] - Profits: 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit at 163 yuan/ton (-19), 10 - contract at 186 yuan/ton (-2), 01 - contract at 170 yuan/ton (-11) [3] Group 3: Market Judgment - **Related prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel at 3260 yuan (-20), Beijing Jingye at 3260 yuan (-10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3450 yuan (-), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3400 yuan (-10) [7] - **Trading strategy**: The black sector declined overall in the afternoon. Ferroalloys led the decline. Spot trading was generally weak, and speculative demand was weak. Steel production is resuming, with thread steel slightly reducing production and hot - rolled coil increasing. Five major steel products are accumulating inventory, and the inventory accumulation speed of thread steel is accelerating. Steel exports remain resilient, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is still strong. Affected by high temperatures and typhoons, the demand for construction steel is declining rapidly. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, and demand is seasonally declining. The focus of influencing prices will shift from policy to fundamentals. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and there is still pressure before the military parade [8] - **Specific trading strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile and weak; it is recommended to continue holding thread steel positive spreads; it is recommended to wait and see for options [9] - **Important information**: In July 2025, China's rebar production was 15.182 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the cumulative production from January to July was 113.387 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In July, the production of medium - thick wide steel strips was 18.414 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; the cumulative production from January to July was 132.435 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In July, the production of wire rods (coils) was 11.375 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the cumulative production from January to July was 78.959 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. The production schedule data for September shows that the domestic sales schedule for air conditioners is 5.082 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%, and the export schedule is 4.785 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6% [9][11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include thread steel and hot - rolled coil price trends, basis, spreads, disk profits, cash profits, cost differences, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [15][19][25][27][29][34][36][41][45][53][57][59][62]
钢材基本面走弱
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 01:05
南华期货钢材(螺纹钢、热卷)周报 ----钢材基本面走弱 2025/08/17 严志妮 投资咨询证号:Z0022076 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 周报核心观点 周度盘面回顾:上半周,受宁德锂矿停产、唐山轧材厂及烧结环节因阅兵限产的消息影响,以及煤矿安全会 议召开前的乐观预期推动,市场炒作情绪升温,盘面震荡上行;下半周,随着煤矿会议落幕且市场认为影响 不及预期,叠加焦煤限仓消息释放,炒作情绪显著降温,加之钢材本周数据表现疲软、累库节奏加快,盘面 呈现震荡下行。 供需存:供增需减,库存累积加速 供给:本周钢厂铁水与废钢日耗均小幅增长,意味着粗钢产量呈增加态势;从排产检修情况来看,后续铁水 产量仍将维持高位震荡,暂无明显减产迹象。利润方面,当前长流程钢厂利润依旧可观,短流程钢厂虽部分 地区利润已低于谷电利润,但下浮幅度有限,钢厂自主减产动力不足。政策层面,目前有部分地区传出烧结 限产消息,且 8 月 20 日 - 9 月 6 日唐山独立轧钢企业将因环保要求停产,后续高炉是否会受影响仍需进一步 跟踪,不过轧材厂和烧结限产确实可能对产量产生一定影响。 需求:本周五大材表需呈现明显环比下滑,其中螺 ...
成材:基本面偏弱钢价调整
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 09:03
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of finished steel products are weak, and steel prices are undergoing adjustments. There is still potential for further adjustment, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content General Situation of Steel Billets - In July, the total resource volume of national sample steel billet circulation enterprises was about 3.32 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of about 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. At the beginning of August, some steel enterprises resumed production after blast furnace maintenance, and the steel billet profit was relatively good, driving up the steel billet delivery volume, which is expected to remain at about 44,000 tons per day, at a relatively high level. On August 4, the ex - factory tax - included price of common square billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 yuan, reaching 3,050 yuan per ton [3] Situation of Finished Steel Products - Finished steel products rebounded slightly from the low level yesterday. After the macro - sentiment subsided, steel prices continuously declined, and the market refocused on the fundamental factors of steel. Currently, the supply of steel is still stronger than the demand. The daily average hot metal output, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability on the supply side are all relatively high, but the downstream demand is mediocre, affected by monthly real - estate data and the actual impact of the rainy season on construction sites [3]