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铁矿石早报(2025-11-17)-20251117
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 03:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decrease, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are accumulating, and terminal demand is weak, indicating a bearish outlook. The basis shows that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish. Port inventories are 15,812.84 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, considered neutral. The price is below the 20 - day moving average which is flat, suggesting a bearish view. The main positions in iron ore are net long but the long positions are decreasing, which is bullish. With the expected decline in domestic demand and port inventory accumulation, the overall view is a sideways - to - bearish trend [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Fundamentals: Steel mills' hot metal production decreases, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories accumulate, and terminal demand is weak; bearish [2] - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 826 with a basis of 53; Rizhao Port Brazilian blend spot converted to futures price is 844 with a basis of 71, spot at a premium to futures; bullish [2] - Inventory: Port inventory is 15,812.84 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; neutral [2] - Disk: Price is below the 20 - day moving average which is flat; bearish [2] - Main positions: Iron ore main positions are net long but long positions are decreasing; bullish [2] - Expectation: Domestic demand declines, port inventories accumulate, sideways - to - bearish trend [2] 利多 (Positive Factors) - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6] - Port inventories decrease [6] - Import losses occur [6] - Downstream steel prices rise, with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6] 利空 (Negative Factors) - Future shipping volumes will increase [6] - Terminal demand remains weak [6]