铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：需求与宏观风偏双重压制，高估值压力较大 | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条目 全球发货量 | 当周值 3516.4 | 环比 447.4 | 同比 505.5 | 全球发货 | 46W2025 143203.7 | 46W2024 140376.7 | 累计同比 2827.0 | 累计同比% 2.0% | | | 澳发货量 | 1985.7 | 268.1 | 263.1 | 澳发货 | 82127.6 | 82326.5 | -198.9 | -0.2% | | | 巴发货量 | 847.9 | 122.2 | 11.7 | 巴发货 | 34940.7 | 34586.3 ...

钢价上行仍可期，板块配置正当时 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [钢价上行仍可期，板块配置正当时 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本期内容提要： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 ➢ 本周市场表现：本周钢铁板块下跌 7.02%，表现劣于大盘；其中，特 钢板块下跌 6.05%，长材板块下跌 9.67% ...

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 库存结构性矛盾，矿价震荡运行 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/11/22 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应：全球铁矿石发运总量3516.4万吨，环比增加447.4万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2908.7万吨，环比增加360.1万吨。澳洲发运量2050.4 万吨，环比增加239.6万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1873.0万吨，环比增加339.0万吨。巴西发运量858.2万吨，环比增加120.5万吨。中国47 港到港总量2369.9万吨，环比减少399.4万吨；中国45港到港总量2268.9万吨，环比减少472.3万吨。 ◆ 需求：日均铁水产量236.28万吨，环比上周减少0.60万吨。高炉炼铁产能利用率88.58%，环比上周减少0.22个百分点；钢厂盈利率37.66%， 环比上周减少1.3 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本周（2025年11月16日--11月21日）交易理想国知识星球共发布37条内容，以下是筛选出的本周精华内容片段摘要，完整版内容可扫码查看。 如何看待碳酸锂的跌停 0 1 碳酸锂触及跌停，气势如虹的买盘一夜蒸发，行情走出一根陡峭的阴线，是政策干预与市场基本面的激烈博弈？ 从监管角度看，广期所旨在防止市场过度投机，尤其可能对实体产业造成冲击，这种降温举措是非常及时有效的。 从市场角度看，多头的预期逻辑，事实构成了漫天叫价，有多少梦想在自由地飞翔呢？10万？12万？15万？20万？25万？还是60万？ 是呀，如果大佬预测明年价格能去15万，20万，为什么现在不是10万，或是12万，或是14万，或是14万9？19.9万？ 最后临门一脚，小心轻射，不就15万，20万了吗？ 所有的数字，都是有些人的笑容，有些人的哭泣。 还是先别讨论明年的供需平衡表了吧？真的很有意义吗？或是暂时删掉碳酸锂，如果你的神经不够大条。 甲醇：01 的冬天，05 的春天？ 0 2 为什么 05 合约更值得关注？ 因为 05 是少有的 "基本面可能改善 ...

今日导读>> 美联储公布了10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，决 策者对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 03 江苏7市启动重污染天气黄色预警 产业新闻 01 FOMC在10月会议上以10比2的投票结果通过了降息25个基点的决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.75%-4.00%。 分析师解读：美联储降息预期降温，从之前的60%的概率下降到30%左右，美元仍处于高位，利空大宗 商品市场价格，利空钢价走势。 02 全球铁矿石产量突破历史新高 在海外国家积极布局下，一大批新增产能项目陆续投产或即将投产，当前全球铁矿石市场正处于一个产 能释放周期的关键阶段。得益于此，过去两年全球铁矿石产量逐年增加，2025年同比增量较2024年有所 减少。全球矿山数据库最新结果显示，2025年全球铁矿石产量约为26.13亿吨，同比增加3298万吨。 钢材走势分析 01 建材：昨日价格主稳个跌 受双焦大幅下跌拖累，负反馈加剧，成本端支撑走弱，而本周建材产量增加7.96至207.96万吨，库存下 降22.83至553.34万吨，原料走弱给钢厂让利，铁水流向建材生产，建筑钢材产量增加，而 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests patience with the Iron Ore 05 contract, waiting for basis repair and market sentiment to improve. Consider shorting at a high price after the contract rebounds above 770 yuan to enhance safety margins. Shorting at current price and basis levels may lead to double losses [2][3][5]. - The short - term price of iron ore is strong, mainly driven by the strong coking coal price. However, the policy is now focused on "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", and coking coal prices are expected to fall, which will support iron ore prices [3]. - The current fundamentals of iron ore are in short - term supply - demand balance. Although the overall port inventory is high, the shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, a strong spot market, and a widened basis [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Leveraging Factors**: Decreasing port inventory of deliverable mainstream medium - high grade powder ores supports near - month contracts and basis; the sharp decline in coking coal prices creates room for iron ore prices; steel demand has improved and inventory has decreased [3]. - **Negative Factors**: China is in a macro - vacuum period with weak high - frequency economic data; the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has dropped significantly, reducing market risk appetite [3]. - **Market Situation**: Iron ore prices are in a wide - range shock, with short - term strength driven by coking coal. The coking coal price is expected to fall due to policy changes. Iron ore fundamentals are in short - term balance, with high basis and a positive spread pattern [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait for basis repair before considering shorting the far - month contract of iron ore [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - The Iron Ore 2601 contract should be traded within the range of [760, 810] [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about price drops, short the iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at 820 - 830; sell call options (I2512 - C - 830) with a 30% ratio at high prices [7]. - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, go long on iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 30% hedging ratio at 780 - 790; sell out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 780) with a 40% ratio at high prices [7]. 1.4 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: Iron water cost increased by 45.18 yuan/ton week - on - week and 105.16 yuan/ton month - on - month; blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton week - on - week; blast furnace rebar profit remained unchanged week - on - week [7]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Data**: Global shipments increased by 447.4 tons week - on - week; Australian and Brazilian shipments increased by 390.3 tons week - on - week; 45 - port arrivals decreased by 472.3 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Iron Ore Demand Data**: Daily average steel mill shipments increased by 2.97 tons week - on - week; daily average iron water production decreased by 0.6 tons week - on - week; blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [10]. - **Iron Ore Inventory Data**: 45 - port imported ore inventory decreased by 75.06 tons week - on - week; steel mill imported ore inventory decreased by 74.78 tons week - on - week [11]. 2. Supply 2.1 Global Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of global iron ore shipments, year - to - date cumulative global shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative global shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [12]. 2.2 Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis - Studied the seasonality of shipments from the four major mines, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [16][17]. 2.3 Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of non - mainstream mine shipments, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between the Platts iron ore index and non - mainstream mine shipments. Also examined the proportion of non - mainstream mines and four major mines in global shipments [22][26]. 2.4 Arrival and Berthing Analysis - Studied the seasonality of arrivals at 47 ports, year - to - date cumulative arrival volume differences, the number of ships at berth, berthing days, and actual arrival volume [28][30][32]. 2.5 Capsize Shipping Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of freight prices for capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of iron ore freight in different products, and the seasonality of capsize ship speeds [36][39][41]. 2.6 Domestic Ore Supply Analysis - Examined the seasonality of daily average iron concentrate production of 186 mining enterprises and monthly iron concentrate production of 433 mining enterprises, as well as the year - to - date cumulative daily average production seasonality and monthly production year - on - year changes [44][46]. 3. Demand Analysis 3.1 Iron Water Analysis - Studied the seasonality of daily average iron water production of 247 steel enterprises, the relationship between iron water production and blast furnace maintenance, and the relationship between iron water production and iron ore prices [48][50][52]. 3.2 Steel Mill Profit Analysis - Analyzed the production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the relationship between profits and future production of different steel products [54][57][60]. 3.3 Downstream Steel Analysis: Rebar - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and price - cost relationship of rebar, as well as the production proportion of short - process steel mills and the relationship between rebar prices and cement shipments [66][71][72]. 3.4 Downstream Steel Analysis: Hot - rolled Coil - Analyzed the production, consumption, inventory, and price differences of hot - rolled coils [74][75][77]. 3.6 Downstream Steel Analysis: Medium - thick Plate - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [79][80]. 3.5 Export Analysis - Analyzed China's steel export volume, port outbound volume, export orders, and export profits of hot - rolled coils [99][100][101]. 4. Inventory Analysis 4.1 Port Inventory Analysis - Studied the seasonality of 45 - port iron ore imports, the structure of port inventory, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore prices [103][105][107]. 4.2 Other Inventory Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of iron ore imports in 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills and in - transit iron ore, and the estimated turnover days of iron ore inventory [122][123]. 5. Valuation Analysis 5.1 Basis and Term Structure - Provided the basis and delivery profit data of different iron ore varieties, and analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different iron ore contracts and the term structure of iron ore futures [124][125]. 5.2 Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio - Studied the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio for different contracts [127]. 5.3 Coking Coal Ratio Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore spread for different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore prices [129][130]. 5.4 Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis - Studied the iron - scrap steel price difference, the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and scrap steel consumption ratio, and the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and iron water - scrap steel daily consumption [132][133][135].

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 | 品种 | 合约 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | 现货价格 | 基差（未折算） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/21 | 变动 | 涨跌幅（%） | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3053 | 3057 | 4 | 0 | 3220 | 163 | | 热卷 | HC2601 | 3256 | 3270 | 14 | 0 | 3270 | 0 | | 铁矿石 | I2601 | 773 | 786 | 13 | 2 | 807 | 22 | | 焦炭 | J2601 | 1670 | 1615 | -55 | -3 | 1770 | 156 | | 焦煤 | JM2601 | 1192 | 1103 | -89 | -7 | 1530 | 427 | | 玻璃 | FG601 | 1032 | 987 | -45 | -4 | 1120 | 133 | | 纯碱 | SA601 | 1226 | 1170 | -56 | -5 | 126 ...

市场预期反复，矿价高位承压 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 * [16] A. A. K. K. * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周矿价底部上涨，供给端扰动事件再起，短期对市场情绪面影响较大，但进一步上涨空间有限。基本面方面，11月份以 来供应端维持平稳，主流矿澳洲同比基本持平，巴西矿贡献小幅增量；非主流发运环比三季度高位小幅回落，但同比仍贡献增量，四 季度整体供应宽松格局难以改变。需求端，三季度至今国内终端用钢需求环比较快回落，四季度环比出现好转迹象，但10月份地产、 基建和制造业用钢均出现下滑，中期来看国内终端用钢有望延续低位运行。对比来看，海外用钢需求维持高增长，1-9月海外铁元素消 费量同比增加近4%/2760万吨，二季度至今海外铁元素消费量同比处于高位，持续贡献增量。 整体来看，当前国内用钢需求较快下滑有望主 ...

每经AI快讯，海南矿业（SH 601969，收盘价：11.91元）11月21日晚间发布公告称，截至本公告披露 日，公司以集中竞价交易方式累计回购股份约35万股，占公司总股本比例为0.017%，回购的最高成交 价格为人民币11.91元/股，最低成交价格为人民币7.91元/股，已支付的资金总金额为人民币约343万 元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——展望"十五五" | 专访黄群慧：既要重视AI赋能千行百业，也要考量其对就业 的替代效应和带来的收入极化 （记者 王晓波） 截至发稿，海南矿业市值为238亿元。 2024年1至12月份，海南矿业的营业收入构成为：石油和天然气勘探开发及销售占比48.41%，铁矿石采 选和加工及销售占比37.0%，大宗商品贸易及加工占比10.5%，其他业务占比4.08%。 ...

研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.21」 螺纹钢市场周报 市场情绪低迷 螺纹期价冲高回落 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至11月21日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3057（+4），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3250（+10）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量上调。207.96（+7.96），同比（-25.86）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回升。本期表需230.79（+14.42），（同比-3.41）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存553.34（-22.83），（同比+108.23）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率37.66%，环比上周减少1.30个百分点，同比去年减少16.89个百分点。 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储公布10月28日至29日的 ...