1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 8 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 需求韧性尚可，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端均回升，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗高位回升，需求韧性尚可，继续给予矿价 支撑，但钢厂利润在收缩，且限产扰动不断，利好效应不强。相反，国内港口矿石到货如期回升，且 矿商发运环比增加并升至年内高位，海外矿石供应大幅增加，相应的内矿生产在恢复，矿石供应重回 高位。目 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report concludes that from a fundamental perspective, there has been an increase in both shipments and arrivals this period. Shipments from Australia have steadily recovered, while there are significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non-mainstream mines, leading to increased overall supply pressure. On the demand side, the current pig iron output is 240.7 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons, and it is expected to continue a slight upward trend in the next period. Overall demand remains at a high level but fluctuates. The production restrictions in the north before September 3 will have a phased impact on demand, so attention should be paid to relevant production restriction policies. In summary, after the basis of iron ore narrows, there is clearly insufficient upward momentum. In the short term, the spot and futures prices may continue to fluctuate and adjust, and the basis may strengthen. It is expected that the 01 contract will fluctuate between 90 - 100 US dollars [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: Last week, the prices of mainstream iron ore spot products showed slight fluctuations. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 6, while PB fines decreased by 6. As of August 15, the Platts 62% index closed at $101.8, up $0.3 week-on-week, equivalent to approximately 851 yuan after currency conversion. The optimal deliverable product is Newman fines, with a current price of around 767 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) is around 792 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot [6]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China has increased week-on-week but is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week-on-week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 12.71 million tons lower than the same period last year. Considering the unloading end, the arrivals are expected to decline; from the demand side, the pig iron output has slightly increased, and the average daily port clearance volume has increased. It is predicted that the overall unloading and warehousing volume at 47 ports in the next period may be lower than the outbound volume, and the port inventory may slightly decrease [6]. - **Supply** - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments this period are 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.595 million tons week-on-week. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are 26.697 million tons, an increase of 2.419 million tons week-on-week. Australia's shipments are 16.042 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons week-on-week, of which the volume shipped to China is 13.475 million tons, a decrease of 0.181 million tons week-on-week. Brazil's shipments are 10.655 million tons, an increase of 2.181 million tons week-on-week [7]. - **Arrivals**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China are 27.031 million tons, an increase of 1.315 million tons week-on-week; the total arrivals at 45 ports are 24.766 million tons, an increase of 0.947 million tons week-on-week; and the total arrivals at six northern ports are 12.525 million tons, an increase of 0.495 million tons week-on-week [7]. - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills has increased this period, reaching 240.66 million tons per day, an increase of 0.34 million tons per day compared to last week, 0.54 million tons per day higher than the beginning of the year, and 11.89 million tons per day higher than the same period last year. One new blast furnace is under maintenance this period, located in the Northeast region, due to weakening downstream demand for finished products. It is expected to last until the end of the month. Blast furnaces that resumed production in the previous cycle have gradually reached full production this week, so the pig iron output has slightly increased. According to the blast furnace start - up and shutdown plans, the pig iron output may continue to increase slightly in the next period. As of August 15, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China is 3134.5 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of around 138 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils is around 225.5 yuan. In the electric furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (according to Fubao) is around 3368 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost is around 3240 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China is around - 138 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit is around - 10 yuan [8]. 3.2 Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: Details of the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted factory warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties are provided. The optimal deliverable product is Newman fines at 792 yuan, and the second - best is PB fines at 803 yuan [14]. - **Iron Ore Inter - period Spreads**: As of August 15, the spread between the 09 and 01 iron ore contracts closed at 16 (- 0.5) [17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profits**: No specific data analysis is provided in the report. - **High - Low Grade Price Spreads**: No specific data analysis is provided in the report. - **Premium Index**: As of August 14, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore is 0.18 (- 0.005), and the premium index for 65% pellet ore is 16 (-) [27]. - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: Data on the inventory of various iron ore brands (such as Mac fines, PB fines, etc.) at 15 ports and their historical trends are presented, along with information on brand premiums and discounts [30]. - **Steel Mill Sinter Fines Inventory**: As of August 15, the imported sinter fines inventory of 64 sample steel mills is 1318, an increase of 43.0 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 3.37%. The domestic sinter fines inventory is 8, a decrease of 0.8 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.84%. The average days of imported ore inventory survey is 2, an increase of 1.0 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 5.00% [33]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption**: As of August 15, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9136.4, an increase of 123.06 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.37%. The daily consumption of imported ore is 298.5, an increase of 0.38 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. The inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore is 30.6, an increase of 0.38 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.26% [36]. - **Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels**: Data on the total port inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers, and the inventory of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores at ports are presented, along with their historical trends [39]. - **Port Inventory by Ore Type**: As of August 15, the inventory of imported lump ore at ports is 1688, a decrease of 2 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. The inventory of imported pellet ore is 325, a decrease of 12 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%. The inventory of imported iron concentrate is 1095, a decrease of 19 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The inventory of imported coarse ore is 10712, an increase of 140 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.33% [42]. - **Port Clearance**: Historical data on port clearance volumes from 2020 - 2025 are provided [45]. - **Iron Ore In - Transit Volume**: Data on the in - transit volume of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream sources to China are presented, along with their historical trends [47]. - **Iron Ore Import Quantities**: Data on the import quantities of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries are presented, along with their historical trends [51]. - **Australian Iron Ore Shipments**: The monthly average shipment volume to the world and to China from Australia, as well as the proportion of shipments to China, are provided. As of August 15, the shipment volume from Australia to China is 1348, a decrease of 18 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The total shipment volume from Australia is 1604, an increase of 23.9 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The proportion of shipments to China is 84.00%, a decrease of 2.4% from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.80% [60]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments**: The monthly average shipment volume to the world from Brazil is provided. As of August 15, the shipment volume from Brazil to the world is 1066, an increase of 218 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 25.74% [65]. - **Shipment Volumes of the Four Major Mines**: The shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) to China are presented. Compared to August 8, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto decreased by 90 (- 15.41%), BHP Billiton decreased by 18 (- 4.39%), Vale increased by 220 (38.85%), and FMG decreased by 22 (- 8.25%). The total shipment volume increased by 90 (4.88%) [67]. - **Iron Ore Arrivals**: As of August 15, the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2477, an increase of 95 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.0%. The arrival volume at northern ports is 1253, an increase of 50 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.1% [74]. - **Freight Rates**: Historical data on the freight rates of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarão to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao from 2020 - 2025 are provided [76]. - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: The production and inventory data of iron concentrate from domestic mines are presented. As of August 15, the production of iron concentrate from mines is 78.9, an increase of 3.3 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.37%. The inventory of iron concentrate from mines is 35, a decrease of 2 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% [78]. - **Steel Mill Fines Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization**: The average daily consumption of imported and domestic sinter fines by 247 steel mills, as well as the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, are presented. As of August 15, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.2, an increase of 0.13 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. The average daily consumption of imported sinter fines is 61.2, a decrease of 0.39 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.63%. The average daily consumption of domestic sinter fines is 8.7, an increase of 0.46 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 5.60% [80]. - **Pig Iron Production**: The daily average pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association are presented, along with historical trends and year - on - year comparisons [86]. - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China are presented, along with historical trends [89]. - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of regions outside China are presented, along with historical trends and year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons [94].

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 25 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：6月24日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 29 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is currently in a situation where supply is becoming more abundant and demand is gradually declining, leading to a weakening trend in ore prices. However, due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises, the decline in ore prices may be limited in the short term. In the long term, factors such as the continuous decline in real estate investment and potential uncertainties in steel exports may lead to a downward trend in ore prices [10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: On June 17, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 699.0 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of iron ore with main grades at Qingdao Port showed mixed changes, with a fluctuation range of - 5 to + 5 yuan/ton. Technically, the KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, and the MACD red column began to narrow [7][9] - **Future Outlook**: In the short term, although the iron ore market is weak, there is still some support below due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises. In the long term, factors such as the continuous decline in real estate investment, potential uncertainties in steel exports after the 90 - day suspension period in the US, and the release of increased iron ore supply from the Xipo project may lead to a downward trend in ore prices [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - From June 9 to June 15, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6088 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 24% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. From June 17 to 21, a new round of heavy rainfall will occur from Southwest China to the Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions. On June 17, relevant departments issued multiple meteorological warnings and the Ministry of Transport launched a level - 4 defense response to heavy rainfall [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to the iron ore market, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between different grades of iron ore, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, and other data [16][18][24]

供应季节性增强 反弹驱动有限 黑色金属周报-铁矿 研究所 白净 F03097282，Z0018999 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 供应季节性增强 反弹驱动有限 上周铁矿现货价格窄幅震荡运行。具体来看，卡粉（-3），PB粉（-6），BRBF （-6），金布巴（-6），超特粉（+3），mac（- 6）。块矿方面，PB块（-3） ，纽曼块（-3），乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉（+1） 。普氏62%指数方面，截止6月6日，普氏指数收于96.1 美元，周环比下降0.7美元，目前按汇率7.18折算人民币大致在805元左右。仓单方面，截止6月6日，最优交割品为NM粉，目前最新报价 在724元/吨左右，折算仓单（厂库）为745元/吨左右，09铁矿贴水现货，除NM粉之外，次优交割品为brbf粉。 库存方面：中国47港铁矿石库存环比去库，低于去年同期。截止目前，47港铁矿石库存总量14400.31万吨，环比去库69万吨,较年 初去库1210万吨,比去年同期库存低1137万吨。下期从卸货端考虑，到港回升；从需求端考虑，铁水延续降势，日均疏港量小幅回落， 预计整体卸货入库量或将高于出库量。综合预测，下期47港港口 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of iron ore 2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price oscillates at a low level [2]. - The iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable. The steel mill production is weak in the off - season, resulting in weak ore demand. Meanwhile, the overseas ore supply is active with an expected end - of - fiscal - year volume rush. The overall supply pressure increases, presenting a situation of strong supply and weak demand. However, the futures price is deeply discounted, and the market sentiment has improved recently, so the downward resistance is large. The ore price is expected to continue the low - level oscillation, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a weak bias. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and low - level ore price oscillation [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore fundamentals run weakly and stably. The steel mill production in the off - season is weak, leading to weak ore demand and limited positive effects. The overseas ore supply is positive with an expected end - of - fiscal - year volume rush. Although domestic ore production is restricted and the output declines, the overall supply pressure increases. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the ore price is under pressure. But due to the deep discount of the futures price and the improved market sentiment, the downward resistance is large. The ore price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and the performance of finished steel should be observed [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a weak and stable operation, with the price continuing to fluctuate. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2509 are respectively "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation". Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [1]. - The iron ore fundamentals are relatively stable. The steel mill production is weakening, and the ore demand is falling from a high level with room for further reduction in the off - season. The port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are rising, and the overseas ore supply remains high. The domestic ore production decline due to inspections is not sustainable. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation makes the iron ore fundamentals weak and stable, and the price is under pressure. However, due to the large futures price discount, there is resistance to downward movement. The price maintains a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are weak and stable, and the ore price continues to oscillate [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore fundamentals are relatively stable. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is falling from a high level. There is still room for reduction in the off - season, but the current decline is not large, which supports the ore price. Port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are rising, and the overseas ore supply remains high. The domestic ore production decline due to inspections is not sustainable. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation makes the fundamentals weak and stable, and the price is under pressure. Due to the large futures price discount, there is resistance to downward movement. The price maintains a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2].