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黑色系周报:铁矿石-20250926
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 12:00
http://www.eafutures .com 交易咨询业务:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色系周报—铁矿石 2025年9月26日 研究员:李海啸 交易咨询:Z0019568 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完 整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司 不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下 做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者 (您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成 的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发 的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的 引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250821
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term, and show a slightly weaker fluctuation in the intraday trading. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line. The demand has certain resilience, and the ore price will fluctuate at a high level [1]. - The supply and demand of iron ore have both increased. The steel mill production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a high level, providing support for the ore price. However, the steel mill profits are shrinking, and there are continuous production - restriction disturbances. The supply of overseas ore has increased significantly, and domestic ore production is recovering. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved substantially, and the high - valued ore price has limited upward driving force. The subsequent trend is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the intraday view is "slightly weaker fluctuation". The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the demand has certain resilience and the ore price fluctuates at a high level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have both increased. The terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a high level, but the steel mill profits are shrinking and there are production - restriction disturbances. Overseas ore supply has increased significantly, and domestic ore production is recovering. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the high - valued ore price has limited upward driving force. The subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the performance of finished steel should be noted [2]
供应增加,震荡调整
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 09:17
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report concludes that from a fundamental perspective, there has been an increase in both shipments and arrivals this period. Shipments from Australia have steadily recovered, while there are significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non-mainstream mines, leading to increased overall supply pressure. On the demand side, the current pig iron output is 240.7 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons, and it is expected to continue a slight upward trend in the next period. Overall demand remains at a high level but fluctuates. The production restrictions in the north before September 3 will have a phased impact on demand, so attention should be paid to relevant production restriction policies. In summary, after the basis of iron ore narrows, there is clearly insufficient upward momentum. In the short term, the spot and futures prices may continue to fluctuate and adjust, and the basis may strengthen. It is expected that the 01 contract will fluctuate between 90 - 100 US dollars [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: Last week, the prices of mainstream iron ore spot products showed slight fluctuations. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 6, while PB fines decreased by 6. As of August 15, the Platts 62% index closed at $101.8, up $0.3 week-on-week, equivalent to approximately 851 yuan after currency conversion. The optimal deliverable product is Newman fines, with a current price of around 767 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) is around 792 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot [6]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China has increased week-on-week but is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week-on-week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 12.71 million tons lower than the same period last year. Considering the unloading end, the arrivals are expected to decline; from the demand side, the pig iron output has slightly increased, and the average daily port clearance volume has increased. It is predicted that the overall unloading and warehousing volume at 47 ports in the next period may be lower than the outbound volume, and the port inventory may slightly decrease [6]. - **Supply** - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments this period are 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.595 million tons week-on-week. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are 26.697 million tons, an increase of 2.419 million tons week-on-week. Australia's shipments are 16.042 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons week-on-week, of which the volume shipped to China is 13.475 million tons, a decrease of 0.181 million tons week-on-week. Brazil's shipments are 10.655 million tons, an increase of 2.181 million tons week-on-week [7]. - **Arrivals**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China are 27.031 million tons, an increase of 1.315 million tons week-on-week; the total arrivals at 45 ports are 24.766 million tons, an increase of 0.947 million tons week-on-week; and the total arrivals at six northern ports are 12.525 million tons, an increase of 0.495 million tons week-on-week [7]. - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills has increased this period, reaching 240.66 million tons per day, an increase of 0.34 million tons per day compared to last week, 0.54 million tons per day higher than the beginning of the year, and 11.89 million tons per day higher than the same period last year. One new blast furnace is under maintenance this period, located in the Northeast region, due to weakening downstream demand for finished products. It is expected to last until the end of the month. Blast furnaces that resumed production in the previous cycle have gradually reached full production this week, so the pig iron output has slightly increased. According to the blast furnace start - up and shutdown plans, the pig iron output may continue to increase slightly in the next period. As of August 15, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China is 3134.5 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of around 138 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils is around 225.5 yuan. In the electric furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (according to Fubao) is around 3368 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost is around 3240 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China is around - 138 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit is around - 10 yuan [8]. 3.2 Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: Details of the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted factory warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties are provided. The optimal deliverable product is Newman fines at 792 yuan, and the second - best is PB fines at 803 yuan [14]. - **Iron Ore Inter - period Spreads**: As of August 15, the spread between the 09 and 01 iron ore contracts closed at 16 (- 0.5) [17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profits**: No specific data analysis is provided in the report. - **High - Low Grade Price Spreads**: No specific data analysis is provided in the report. - **Premium Index**: As of August 14, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore is 0.18 (- 0.005), and the premium index for 65% pellet ore is 16 (-) [27]. - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: Data on the inventory of various iron ore brands (such as Mac fines, PB fines, etc.) at 15 ports and their historical trends are presented, along with information on brand premiums and discounts [30]. - **Steel Mill Sinter Fines Inventory**: As of August 15, the imported sinter fines inventory of 64 sample steel mills is 1318, an increase of 43.0 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 3.37%. The domestic sinter fines inventory is 8, a decrease of 0.8 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.84%. The average days of imported ore inventory survey is 2, an increase of 1.0 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 5.00% [33]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption**: As of August 15, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9136.4, an increase of 123.06 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.37%. The daily consumption of imported ore is 298.5, an increase of 0.38 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. The inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore is 30.6, an increase of 0.38 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.26% [36]. - **Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels**: Data on the total port inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers, and the inventory of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores at ports are presented, along with their historical trends [39]. - **Port Inventory by Ore Type**: As of August 15, the inventory of imported lump ore at ports is 1688, a decrease of 2 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. The inventory of imported pellet ore is 325, a decrease of 12 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%. The inventory of imported iron concentrate is 1095, a decrease of 19 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The inventory of imported coarse ore is 10712, an increase of 140 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.33% [42]. - **Port Clearance**: Historical data on port clearance volumes from 2020 - 2025 are provided [45]. - **Iron Ore In - Transit Volume**: Data on the in - transit volume of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream sources to China are presented, along with their historical trends [47]. - **Iron Ore Import Quantities**: Data on the import quantities of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries are presented, along with their historical trends [51]. - **Australian Iron Ore Shipments**: The monthly average shipment volume to the world and to China from Australia, as well as the proportion of shipments to China, are provided. As of August 15, the shipment volume from Australia to China is 1348, a decrease of 18 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The total shipment volume from Australia is 1604, an increase of 23.9 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The proportion of shipments to China is 84.00%, a decrease of 2.4% from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.80% [60]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments**: The monthly average shipment volume to the world from Brazil is provided. As of August 15, the shipment volume from Brazil to the world is 1066, an increase of 218 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 25.74% [65]. - **Shipment Volumes of the Four Major Mines**: The shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) to China are presented. Compared to August 8, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto decreased by 90 (- 15.41%), BHP Billiton decreased by 18 (- 4.39%), Vale increased by 220 (38.85%), and FMG decreased by 22 (- 8.25%). The total shipment volume increased by 90 (4.88%) [67]. - **Iron Ore Arrivals**: As of August 15, the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2477, an increase of 95 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.0%. The arrival volume at northern ports is 1253, an increase of 50 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.1% [74]. - **Freight Rates**: Historical data on the freight rates of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarão to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao from 2020 - 2025 are provided [76]. - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: The production and inventory data of iron concentrate from domestic mines are presented. As of August 15, the production of iron concentrate from mines is 78.9, an increase of 3.3 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.37%. The inventory of iron concentrate from mines is 35, a decrease of 2 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% [78]. - **Steel Mill Fines Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization**: The average daily consumption of imported and domestic sinter fines by 247 steel mills, as well as the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, are presented. As of August 15, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.2, an increase of 0.13 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. The average daily consumption of imported sinter fines is 61.2, a decrease of 0.39 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.63%. The average daily consumption of domestic sinter fines is 8.7, an increase of 0.46 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 5.60% [80]. - **Pig Iron Production**: The daily average pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association are presented, along with historical trends and year - on - year comparisons [86]. - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China are presented, along with historical trends [89]. - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of regions outside China are presented, along with historical trends and year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons [94].
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250625
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 01:42
Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, steel mills are still in the process of production cuts, but due to their weak willingness to control losses and production, and the support of downstream demand under the effect of export rush, the production cut pace is expected to be tortuous, and the iron ore price will generally show a volatile and weak state with short - term support at the bottom [12]. - In the medium and long term, the real estate investment is still declining at a rate of about 10%, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is difficult to make up for the real estate gap. After the 90 - day suspension period in the United States, the uncertainty of exports will gradually appear in the data. The high steel production may not be sustainable. Coupled with the gradual release of the incremental supply of iron ore after the Xipo project is put into production, the chain of "terminal demand decline - steel enterprise profit narrowing - steel enterprise production cut - iron ore price trend decline" may appear in the second half of the year [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On June 24, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. After a sharp decline at the opening, it oscillated, and then fell again in the afternoon, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. Other steel futures contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [7]. - **Spot Market**: On June 24, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were lowered by 0 - 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J - value turning down and the K - value and D - value continuing to rise; the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract has been expanding for two consecutive trading days [9]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Short - term**: Although steel mills are in the process of production cuts, due to good profit levels, the production cut pace is tortuous. Last week, the daily average pig iron output rebounded, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate and operating rate both increased, indicating strong support on the demand side of iron ore. The supply of iron ore is expected to be loose until mid - July [12]. - **Medium - and Long - term**: Real estate investment is declining, and the uncertainty of steel exports will increase after the 90 - day suspension period in the United States. The high steel production may not be sustainable, and the supply of iron ore will increase after the Xipo project is put into production, which may lead to a decline in iron ore prices [13]. 3.3 Industry News - In May 2025, China's coal imports continued to decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. The import volume dropped to 3604.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 178.5 million tons (4.7%) and a year - on - year decrease of 777.6 million tons (17.7%) [14]. - On June 24, local time, the Israeli military claimed to have detected Iran launching missiles at Israel after the cease - fire agreement took effect, and the Israeli defense minister ordered a strong response. Iran denied the claim [14]. 3.4 Data Overview - The report provides a series of data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, the shipping volume of Brazilian and Australian iron ore, the arrival volume at 45 ports, etc. [19][23][30]
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250618
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 05:05
Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is currently in a situation where supply is becoming more abundant and demand is gradually declining, leading to a weakening trend in ore prices. However, due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises, the decline in ore prices may be limited in the short term. In the long term, factors such as the continuous decline in real estate investment and potential uncertainties in steel exports may lead to a downward trend in ore prices [10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: On June 17, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 699.0 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of iron ore with main grades at Qingdao Port showed mixed changes, with a fluctuation range of - 5 to + 5 yuan/ton. Technically, the KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, and the MACD red column began to narrow [7][9] - **Future Outlook**: In the short term, although the iron ore market is weak, there is still some support below due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises. In the long term, factors such as the continuous decline in real estate investment, potential uncertainties in steel exports after the 90 - day suspension period in the US, and the release of increased iron ore supply from the Xipo project may lead to a downward trend in ore prices [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - From June 9 to June 15, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6088 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 24% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. From June 17 to 21, a new round of heavy rainfall will occur from Southwest China to the Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions. On June 17, relevant departments issued multiple meteorological warnings and the Ministry of Transport launched a level - 4 defense response to heavy rainfall [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to the iron ore market, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between different grades of iron ore, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, and other data [16][18][24]
黑色金属周报:铁矿:供应季节性增强,反弹驱动有限-20250609
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 12:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of iron ore remains at a high level, while the molten iron production has been decreasing for four consecutive weeks. Considering the decent profit per ton of steel, the molten iron production may fluctuate at a high level, and the downward trend may not be smooth. The short - term rebound pressure is at 90 (722) US dollars, and participation should be cautious [9] Summary by Directory Part I: Fundamental Analysis and Conclusions - **Price**: Last week, iron ore spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The Platts 62% index closed at $96.1 on June 6, down $0.7 week - on - week, equivalent to about 805 yuan after exchange - rate conversion. The optimal deliverable is NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 724 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse - receipt price of about 745 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot [6] - **Inventory**: China's 47 - port iron ore inventory decreased week - on - week and is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory is 14,400.31 tons, a decrease of 69 tons week - on - week, 1,210 tons lower than the beginning of the year, and 1,137 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the 47 - port inventory may slightly increase in the next period [6] - **Supply - Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment volume this period is 3,510.4 tons, an increase of 79.4 tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 2,839.4 tons, an increase of 8.8 tons week - on - week. Australia's shipment volume is 2,093.6 tons, an increase of 196.8 tons week - on - week, and the volume shipped to China is 1,815.8 tons, an increase of 336.5 tons week - on - week. Brazil's shipment volume is 745.8 tons, a decrease of 188.0 tons week - on - week [7] - **Supply - Arrival**: From June 2 to June 8, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 47 ports is 2,673.9 tons, an increase of 76.5 tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2,609.3 tons, an increase of 72.8 tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1,383.6 tons, a decrease of 157.2 tons week - on - week. The arrival volume of non - mainstream ores increased by 4.5 tons to 335.2 tons [7] - **Demand**: The average daily molten iron production of 247 sample steel mills continued to decline this period, at 241.8 tons per day, a decrease of 0.11 tons per day week - on - week. It is expected that the molten iron production will slightly decrease in the next period. As of June 6, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of rebar in East China is 2,972 yuan, with a profit of about 148 yuan; the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils is about 128 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace sector, the flat - rate electricity cost in East China is about 3,260 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost is about 3,128 yuan [8] Part II: Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse - Receipt Price**: Presents the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted warehouse - receipt prices of various iron ore varieties. The optimal deliverable is Newman powder with a warehouse - receipt price of 745 yuan, and the second - best is BRBF with a warehouse - receipt price of 754 yuan [14] - **Iron Ore Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Displays the historical data of iron ore 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 inter - delivery spreads [16] - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: No specific data analysis provided - **High - and Low - Grade Price Difference**: No specific data analysis provided - **Premium Index**: Shows the historical data of the premium indices of 62.5% lump ore and 65% pellet [25] - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: Displays the inventory and premium (discount) data of various iron ore brands such as Mac, PB, JMB, and Newman [27] - **Steel Mill Sintered Ore Fines Inventory**: The inventory of imported sintered ore fines of 64 sample steel mills decreased by 48.5 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 4.00%; the inventory of domestic sintered ore fines decreased by 0.1 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.10%; the average inventory days of imported ores decreased by 1.0 days week - on - week, a decrease of 5.00% [30] - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption**: The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.15 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.73%; the daily consumption increased by 0.80 tons, an increase of 0.27%; the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased by 0.29, a decrease of 0.99% [33] - **Port Inventory and Berthing**: No specific data analysis provided - **Port Inventory by Ore Type**: The inventory of imported lump ore at ports decreased by 60 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 3.85%; the inventory of pellet ore increased by 3 tons, an increase of 0.64%; the inventory of iron concentrate decreased by 79 tons, a decrease of 6.30%; the inventory of coarse ore increased by 96 tons, an increase of 0.91% [39] - **Surcharge**: Displays the historical data of iron ore surcharge from 2020 to 2025 [42] - **Iron Ore In - Transit Volume**: Displays the historical data of China's total in - transit iron ore volume and the in - transit volume from Brazil, non - mainstream countries, and Australia to China [45] - **Iron Ore Import Quantity**: Displays the historical import volume data of iron ore in China, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [49] - **Australia's Iron Ore Shipment**: Australia's shipment to China increased by 337 tons week - on - week, an increase of 22.75%; the total shipment increased by 196.8 tons, an increase of 10.38%; the proportion of shipment to China increased by 8.7%, an increase of 11.21% [58] - **Brazil's Iron Ore Shipment**: Brazil's global shipment decreased by 188 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 20.13% [63] - **Four Major Mines' Iron Ore Shipment**: The total shipment of the four major mines remained basically unchanged week - on - week. Rio Tinto's shipment decreased by 1 ton, a decrease of 0.14%; BHP's shipment increased by 72 tons, an increase of 14.02%; Vale's shipment decreased by 220 tons, a decrease of 31.15%; FMG's shipment increased by 149 tons, an increase of 44.52% [65] - **Iron Ore Arrival**: The arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 73 tons week - on - week, an increase of 2.9%; the arrival volume at northern ports decreased by 157 tons, a decrease of 10.2% [73] - **Freight Rate**: Displays the historical data of iron ore freight rates from Brazil's Tubarão to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao [75] - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: The production of iron concentrate in 266 mines decreased by 0.2 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.28%; the inventory decreased by 2 tons [78] - **Steel Mill Ore Fines Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization**: The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.04%, and the average daily molten iron production decreased by 0.11 tons. The daily consumption of imported sintered ore fines increased by 0.84 tons, an increase of 1.42%; the daily consumption of domestic sintered ore fines decreased by 0.05 tons, a decrease of 0.61% [80] - **Pig Iron Production**: The daily average pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association are presented, along with year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates [86] - **Global Pig Iron Production**: Displays the historical data of global, Chinese, and non - Chinese pig iron production [89] - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: Presents the historical data of non - Chinese pig iron production and the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates [94]
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250609
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 02:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of iron ore 2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price oscillates at a low level [2]. - The iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable. The steel mill production is weak in the off - season, resulting in weak ore demand. Meanwhile, the overseas ore supply is active with an expected end - of - fiscal - year volume rush. The overall supply pressure increases, presenting a situation of strong supply and weak demand. However, the futures price is deeply discounted, and the market sentiment has improved recently, so the downward resistance is large. The ore price is expected to continue the low - level oscillation, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a weak bias. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and low - level ore price oscillation [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore fundamentals run weakly and stably. The steel mill production in the off - season is weak, leading to weak ore demand and limited positive effects. The overseas ore supply is positive with an expected end - of - fiscal - year volume rush. Although domestic ore production is restricted and the output declines, the overall supply pressure increases. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the ore price is under pressure. But due to the deep discount of the futures price and the improved market sentiment, the downward resistance is large. The ore price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and the performance of finished steel should be observed [3]
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250605
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 01:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a weak and stable operation, with the price continuing to fluctuate. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2509 are respectively "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation". Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [1]. - The iron ore fundamentals are relatively stable. The steel mill production is weakening, and the ore demand is falling from a high level with room for further reduction in the off - season. The port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are rising, and the overseas ore supply remains high. The domestic ore production decline due to inspections is not sustainable. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation makes the iron ore fundamentals weak and stable, and the price is under pressure. However, due to the large futures price discount, there is resistance to downward movement. The price maintains a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are weak and stable, and the ore price continues to oscillate [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore fundamentals are relatively stable. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is falling from a high level. There is still room for reduction in the off - season, but the current decline is not large, which supports the ore price. Port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are rising, and the overseas ore supply remains high. The domestic ore production decline due to inspections is not sustainable. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation makes the fundamentals weak and stable, and the price is under pressure. Due to the large futures price discount, there is resistance to downward movement. The price maintains a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2].