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华龙期货铁矿周报-20251124
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 03:09
研究报告 铁矿周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员:魏云 期货从业资格证号:F3024460 投资咨询资格证号:Z0013724 电话:17752110915 邮箱:497976013@qq.com *特别声明:本报告基于公开信息编制而成,报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出,仅供投资者参考,据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要: 基本面: 据 Mysteel,上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 82.19%,环比减少 0.62%,同比增加 0.26%;日均铁水产量 236.28 万吨,环比减少 0.60 万吨, 同比增加0.48万吨,钢厂盈利率37.66%,环比减少1.30%,同比减少16.89%, 全国 45 个港口进口铁矿库存总量 1.5 亿吨,环比下降 75.06 万吨;日均疏 港量 329.92 万吨,增 2.97 万吨。 报告日期:2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 后市展望:全球铁矿发运量回升,港口库存在此前大幅上升后,上 ...
铁矿石早报(2025-11-17)-20251117
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 03:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decrease, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are accumulating, and terminal demand is weak, indicating a bearish outlook. The basis shows that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish. Port inventories are 15,812.84 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, considered neutral. The price is below the 20 - day moving average which is flat, suggesting a bearish view. The main positions in iron ore are net long but the long positions are decreasing, which is bullish. With the expected decline in domestic demand and port inventory accumulation, the overall view is a sideways - to - bearish trend [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Fundamentals: Steel mills' hot metal production decreases, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories accumulate, and terminal demand is weak; bearish [2] - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 826 with a basis of 53; Rizhao Port Brazilian blend spot converted to futures price is 844 with a basis of 71, spot at a premium to futures; bullish [2] - Inventory: Port inventory is 15,812.84 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; neutral [2] - Disk: Price is below the 20 - day moving average which is flat; bearish [2] - Main positions: Iron ore main positions are net long but long positions are decreasing; bullish [2] - Expectation: Domestic demand declines, port inventories accumulate, sideways - to - bearish trend [2] 利多 (Positive Factors) - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6] - Port inventories decrease [6] - Import losses occur [6] - Downstream steel prices rise, with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6] 利空 (Negative Factors) - Future shipping volumes will increase [6] - Terminal demand remains weak [6]
铁矿石早报(2025-11-10)-20251110
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 01:55
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证号: Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报(2025-11-10) 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨,高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁矿石: 每日观点 1、基本面:钢厂铁水产量开始减少,总体供需宽松,港口库存累库,终端需求偏弱;偏空 2、基差:日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价815,基差54;日照港巴混现货折合盘面价837,基差77,现货升水期 货;偏多 3、库存:港口库存15,624.13万吨,环比增加,同比减少;中性 4、盘面:价格在20日线下方,20日线向下;偏空 5、主力持仓:铁矿主力持仓净多,多减;偏多 6、预期:国内需求降低,港口累库,震荡偏空思路 利多: 利空: 铁矿石港口现货价格 铁 ...
黑色金属周报:铁矿:高基差限制下跌动能,震荡运行-20251027
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 11:18
黑色金属周报-铁矿 高基差限制下跌动能 震荡运行 2025年10月27日 研究所 白净 从业资格号:F03097282; 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0018999; TEL:010-82292661 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 高基差限制下跌动能 震荡运行 上周铁矿主流现货价格盘整运行。具体来看,卡粉(-25),PB粉(+1),BRBF (+2),金布巴(-1),超特粉(+2),mac (+1)。块矿方面,PB块(-3) ,纽曼块(-3),乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉(+3)。普氏62%指数方面,截至10月24日,普氏指数收于 105.15美元,环比下降0.15美元,目前按汇率7.12折算人民币大致在871元左右。仓单方面,截止10月24日,最优交割品为NM粉,目前 最新报价在775元/吨左右,折算仓单(厂库)为800元/吨左右,除NM粉之外,次优交割品为pb粉。 库存方面:中国47港铁矿石库存环比累库,低于去年同期。截止目前,47港铁矿石库存总量15109.49万吨,环比累库148万吨,较 年初去库501万吨,比去年同期库存低937万吨。下期从卸货端考虑,到港下降;从需求端考虑,铁水高位波动 ...
铁矿石周报:宏观兑现,铁水趋弱,矿价承压-20251025
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-25 14:01
万林新(联系人) 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号:Z0020771 宏观兑现,铁水趋弱,矿价承压 铁矿石周报 从业资格号:F03133967 2025/10/25 陈张滢(黑色建材组) 从业资格号:F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应:最新一期全球铁矿石发运总量3333.5万吨,环比增加126.0万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2825.0万吨,环比增加94.0万吨。澳洲发运 量1984.5万吨,环比增加68.2万吨,其中澳洲发往中国的量1729.1万吨,环比增加144.6万吨。巴西发运量840.5万吨,环比增加25.8万吨。 中国47港到港总量2676.3万吨,环比减少467.8万吨;中国45港到港总量2519.4万吨,环比减少526.4万吨。 ◆ 需求:日均铁水产量239.9万吨,环比上周减少1.05万吨。高炉炼铁产能利用率89.94%,环比上周减少0.39个百分点;钢厂盈利率47.62%, 环 ...
黑色系周报:铁矿石-20250926
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 12:00
http://www.eafutures .com 交易咨询业务:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色系周报—铁矿石 2025年9月26日 研究员:李海啸 交易咨询:Z0019568 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完 整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司 不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下 做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者 (您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成 的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发 的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的 引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250821
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term, and show a slightly weaker fluctuation in the intraday trading. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line. The demand has certain resilience, and the ore price will fluctuate at a high level [1]. - The supply and demand of iron ore have both increased. The steel mill production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a high level, providing support for the ore price. However, the steel mill profits are shrinking, and there are continuous production - restriction disturbances. The supply of overseas ore has increased significantly, and domestic ore production is recovering. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved substantially, and the high - valued ore price has limited upward driving force. The subsequent trend is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the intraday view is "slightly weaker fluctuation". The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the demand has certain resilience and the ore price fluctuates at a high level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have both increased. The terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a high level, but the steel mill profits are shrinking and there are production - restriction disturbances. Overseas ore supply has increased significantly, and domestic ore production is recovering. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the high - valued ore price has limited upward driving force. The subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the performance of finished steel should be noted [2]
供应增加,震荡调整
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 09:17
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report concludes that from a fundamental perspective, there has been an increase in both shipments and arrivals this period. Shipments from Australia have steadily recovered, while there are significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non-mainstream mines, leading to increased overall supply pressure. On the demand side, the current pig iron output is 240.7 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons, and it is expected to continue a slight upward trend in the next period. Overall demand remains at a high level but fluctuates. The production restrictions in the north before September 3 will have a phased impact on demand, so attention should be paid to relevant production restriction policies. In summary, after the basis of iron ore narrows, there is clearly insufficient upward momentum. In the short term, the spot and futures prices may continue to fluctuate and adjust, and the basis may strengthen. It is expected that the 01 contract will fluctuate between 90 - 100 US dollars [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: Last week, the prices of mainstream iron ore spot products showed slight fluctuations. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 6, while PB fines decreased by 6. As of August 15, the Platts 62% index closed at $101.8, up $0.3 week-on-week, equivalent to approximately 851 yuan after currency conversion. The optimal deliverable product is Newman fines, with a current price of around 767 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) is around 792 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot [6]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China has increased week-on-week but is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week-on-week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 12.71 million tons lower than the same period last year. Considering the unloading end, the arrivals are expected to decline; from the demand side, the pig iron output has slightly increased, and the average daily port clearance volume has increased. It is predicted that the overall unloading and warehousing volume at 47 ports in the next period may be lower than the outbound volume, and the port inventory may slightly decrease [6]. - **Supply** - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments this period are 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.595 million tons week-on-week. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are 26.697 million tons, an increase of 2.419 million tons week-on-week. Australia's shipments are 16.042 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons week-on-week, of which the volume shipped to China is 13.475 million tons, a decrease of 0.181 million tons week-on-week. Brazil's shipments are 10.655 million tons, an increase of 2.181 million tons week-on-week [7]. - **Arrivals**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China are 27.031 million tons, an increase of 1.315 million tons week-on-week; the total arrivals at 45 ports are 24.766 million tons, an increase of 0.947 million tons week-on-week; and the total arrivals at six northern ports are 12.525 million tons, an increase of 0.495 million tons week-on-week [7]. - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills has increased this period, reaching 240.66 million tons per day, an increase of 0.34 million tons per day compared to last week, 0.54 million tons per day higher than the beginning of the year, and 11.89 million tons per day higher than the same period last year. One new blast furnace is under maintenance this period, located in the Northeast region, due to weakening downstream demand for finished products. It is expected to last until the end of the month. Blast furnaces that resumed production in the previous cycle have gradually reached full production this week, so the pig iron output has slightly increased. According to the blast furnace start - up and shutdown plans, the pig iron output may continue to increase slightly in the next period. As of August 15, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China is 3134.5 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of around 138 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils is around 225.5 yuan. In the electric furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (according to Fubao) is around 3368 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost is around 3240 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China is around - 138 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit is around - 10 yuan [8]. 3.2 Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: Details of the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted factory warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties are provided. The optimal deliverable product is Newman fines at 792 yuan, and the second - best is PB fines at 803 yuan [14]. - **Iron Ore Inter - period Spreads**: As of August 15, the spread between the 09 and 01 iron ore contracts closed at 16 (- 0.5) [17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profits**: No specific data analysis is provided in the report. - **High - Low Grade Price Spreads**: No specific data analysis is provided in the report. - **Premium Index**: As of August 14, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore is 0.18 (- 0.005), and the premium index for 65% pellet ore is 16 (-) [27]. - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: Data on the inventory of various iron ore brands (such as Mac fines, PB fines, etc.) at 15 ports and their historical trends are presented, along with information on brand premiums and discounts [30]. - **Steel Mill Sinter Fines Inventory**: As of August 15, the imported sinter fines inventory of 64 sample steel mills is 1318, an increase of 43.0 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 3.37%. The domestic sinter fines inventory is 8, a decrease of 0.8 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.84%. The average days of imported ore inventory survey is 2, an increase of 1.0 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 5.00% [33]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption**: As of August 15, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9136.4, an increase of 123.06 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.37%. The daily consumption of imported ore is 298.5, an increase of 0.38 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. The inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore is 30.6, an increase of 0.38 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.26% [36]. - **Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels**: Data on the total port inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers, and the inventory of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores at ports are presented, along with their historical trends [39]. - **Port Inventory by Ore Type**: As of August 15, the inventory of imported lump ore at ports is 1688, a decrease of 2 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. The inventory of imported pellet ore is 325, a decrease of 12 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%. The inventory of imported iron concentrate is 1095, a decrease of 19 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The inventory of imported coarse ore is 10712, an increase of 140 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.33% [42]. - **Port Clearance**: Historical data on port clearance volumes from 2020 - 2025 are provided [45]. - **Iron Ore In - Transit Volume**: Data on the in - transit volume of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream sources to China are presented, along with their historical trends [47]. - **Iron Ore Import Quantities**: Data on the import quantities of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries are presented, along with their historical trends [51]. - **Australian Iron Ore Shipments**: The monthly average shipment volume to the world and to China from Australia, as well as the proportion of shipments to China, are provided. As of August 15, the shipment volume from Australia to China is 1348, a decrease of 18 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The total shipment volume from Australia is 1604, an increase of 23.9 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The proportion of shipments to China is 84.00%, a decrease of 2.4% from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.80% [60]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments**: The monthly average shipment volume to the world from Brazil is provided. As of August 15, the shipment volume from Brazil to the world is 1066, an increase of 218 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 25.74% [65]. - **Shipment Volumes of the Four Major Mines**: The shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) to China are presented. Compared to August 8, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto decreased by 90 (- 15.41%), BHP Billiton decreased by 18 (- 4.39%), Vale increased by 220 (38.85%), and FMG decreased by 22 (- 8.25%). The total shipment volume increased by 90 (4.88%) [67]. - **Iron Ore Arrivals**: As of August 15, the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2477, an increase of 95 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.0%. The arrival volume at northern ports is 1253, an increase of 50 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.1% [74]. - **Freight Rates**: Historical data on the freight rates of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarão to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao from 2020 - 2025 are provided [76]. - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: The production and inventory data of iron concentrate from domestic mines are presented. As of August 15, the production of iron concentrate from mines is 78.9, an increase of 3.3 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.37%. The inventory of iron concentrate from mines is 35, a decrease of 2 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% [78]. - **Steel Mill Fines Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization**: The average daily consumption of imported and domestic sinter fines by 247 steel mills, as well as the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, are presented. As of August 15, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.2, an increase of 0.13 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. The average daily consumption of imported sinter fines is 61.2, a decrease of 0.39 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.63%. The average daily consumption of domestic sinter fines is 8.7, an increase of 0.46 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 5.60% [80]. - **Pig Iron Production**: The daily average pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association are presented, along with historical trends and year - on - year comparisons [86]. - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China are presented, along with historical trends [89]. - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of regions outside China are presented, along with historical trends and year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons [94].
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250625
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 01:42
Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, steel mills are still in the process of production cuts, but due to their weak willingness to control losses and production, and the support of downstream demand under the effect of export rush, the production cut pace is expected to be tortuous, and the iron ore price will generally show a volatile and weak state with short - term support at the bottom [12]. - In the medium and long term, the real estate investment is still declining at a rate of about 10%, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is difficult to make up for the real estate gap. After the 90 - day suspension period in the United States, the uncertainty of exports will gradually appear in the data. The high steel production may not be sustainable. Coupled with the gradual release of the incremental supply of iron ore after the Xipo project is put into production, the chain of "terminal demand decline - steel enterprise profit narrowing - steel enterprise production cut - iron ore price trend decline" may appear in the second half of the year [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On June 24, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. After a sharp decline at the opening, it oscillated, and then fell again in the afternoon, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. Other steel futures contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [7]. - **Spot Market**: On June 24, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were lowered by 0 - 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J - value turning down and the K - value and D - value continuing to rise; the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract has been expanding for two consecutive trading days [9]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Short - term**: Although steel mills are in the process of production cuts, due to good profit levels, the production cut pace is tortuous. Last week, the daily average pig iron output rebounded, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate and operating rate both increased, indicating strong support on the demand side of iron ore. The supply of iron ore is expected to be loose until mid - July [12]. - **Medium - and Long - term**: Real estate investment is declining, and the uncertainty of steel exports will increase after the 90 - day suspension period in the United States. The high steel production may not be sustainable, and the supply of iron ore will increase after the Xipo project is put into production, which may lead to a decline in iron ore prices [13]. 3.3 Industry News - In May 2025, China's coal imports continued to decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. The import volume dropped to 3604.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 178.5 million tons (4.7%) and a year - on - year decrease of 777.6 million tons (17.7%) [14]. - On June 24, local time, the Israeli military claimed to have detected Iran launching missiles at Israel after the cease - fire agreement took effect, and the Israeli defense minister ordered a strong response. Iran denied the claim [14]. 3.4 Data Overview - The report provides a series of data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, the shipping volume of Brazilian and Australian iron ore, the arrival volume at 45 ports, etc. [19][23][30]
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250618
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 05:05
Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is currently in a situation where supply is becoming more abundant and demand is gradually declining, leading to a weakening trend in ore prices. However, due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises, the decline in ore prices may be limited in the short term. In the long term, factors such as the continuous decline in real estate investment and potential uncertainties in steel exports may lead to a downward trend in ore prices [10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: On June 17, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 699.0 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of iron ore with main grades at Qingdao Port showed mixed changes, with a fluctuation range of - 5 to + 5 yuan/ton. Technically, the KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, and the MACD red column began to narrow [7][9] - **Future Outlook**: In the short term, although the iron ore market is weak, there is still some support below due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises. In the long term, factors such as the continuous decline in real estate investment, potential uncertainties in steel exports after the 90 - day suspension period in the US, and the release of increased iron ore supply from the Xipo project may lead to a downward trend in ore prices [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - From June 9 to June 15, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6088 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 24% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. From June 17 to 21, a new round of heavy rainfall will occur from Southwest China to the Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions. On June 17, relevant departments issued multiple meteorological warnings and the Ministry of Transport launched a level - 4 defense response to heavy rainfall [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to the iron ore market, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between different grades of iron ore, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, and other data [16][18][24]