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天风证券:铜矿供应增速下滑 铜价支撑铜矿企业盈利
智通财经网· 2025-10-29 01:48
Group 1 - The TC benchmark is significantly lowered in 2025, leading to relaxed mining costs and a notable increase in copper prices, with copper mine profits potentially maintaining a high level of 60% since 2024, despite a downward trend in copper mine supply growth [1] - The overall copper mine production growth for 2025 is expected to be around -0.12%, indicating a downward adjustment compared to early 2024 [1][2] - The high interference rate in global copper mining, combined with cautious expansion and high production costs, suggests that long-term growth may not be optimistic, with a projected growth rate of about 2% for 2026 [2] Group 2 - China's copper mine reserves account for only 4% of the global total, while its production share is 8%, highlighting an imbalance in extraction and resource scarcity, prompting companies to expand into resource-rich regions [3] - Chinese copper mining companies are increasingly extending their operations into Africa and South America through mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures to bolster reserves amid high costs and resource protectionism [3] - Infrastructure development is continuously improving, enhancing production and transportation efficiency to achieve long-term cost reduction [3] Group 3 - Recommended companies to focus on include Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Minmetals Resources (01208), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), Jincheng Mining (603979.SH), and Western Mining (601168.SH) [4]