上海期货交易所的铜期货合约突破7万6千元，交易员小张盯着分时图剧烈波动，惊呼："贸易商在疯抢 现货，有批到港铜被五次转手！" 这疯狂的价格波动，只是全球铜荒的冰山一角，其根源远比人们想象 的复杂和深远。 江西贵溪冶炼厂的熔炼炉喷射出炽烈的火焰，1500度高温熔融的铜水流入模具，铸成红光闪耀的阳极 板。然而，厂长在调度会上却重重地敲着桌子："原料库存预警！下周必须压减20%产能！" 原料短缺的 压力，正如同这熔炉的烈火般炙烤着中国乃至全球的铜产业链。 宁波港码头的起重机正卸下铜精矿货柜，褐红色的粉末从集装箱缝隙洒落，货代小刘在电话里焦急地争 吵："品质下滑还要扣款，这生意没法做了！" 这批来自南美的铜精矿，质量远低于合同约定，预示着 全球铜矿资源品质的持续下降。 佛山拆解厂的王老板用磁铁吸起废旧电机，暗红色的铜线在流水台闪烁。2023年中国产生500万吨含铜 废弃物，但正规回收商只拿到150万吨，巨大的回收潜力有待挖掘。深圳绿环公司新装的AI分拣机，机 械臂每小时拣出2吨废铜，"德国废铜回收率有60%，我们能做到就能多300万吨铜，"工程师调试着传感 器，充满希望。 刚果（金）科卢韦齐市的矿工营地里，紫金矿业安 ...

Group 1 - Barrick Mining Corp's CEO Mark Bristow expressed optimism about the long-term prospects of copper despite short-term price volatility due to a 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. starting August 1 [1][2] - The new tariff is expected to impact copper prices, with COMEX copper futures reaching historical highs following the announcement [1] - Analysts predict that countries like Chile, the largest copper producer and supplier to the U.S., may shift supply to mitigate the effects of the tariffs, potentially affecting copper prices outside the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Barrick Mining Corp is the second-largest gold producer globally and is currently investing to increase its copper production [2] - The company has committed to a $2 billion plan to double the annual output of its Lumwana copper mine in Zambia to 240,000 tons by 2028 and extend the mine's lifespan to 2057 [2] - Bristow noted that most of the copper mining industry is only considering marginal expansions, but Barrick is proactively investing before supply tightens [2]

Group 1 - First Quantum Minerals' investment in Prospect Resources is crucial for extending the lifespan of the Sentinel mine in Zambia [1] - The company acquired a 15% stake in Prospect, becoming its largest shareholder, as Prospect explores the Mumbezhi copper project located approximately 30 kilometers from Sentinel [1] - Current lifespan of the Sentinel mine is about 12 years, with ongoing studies to extend this duration [1] Group 2 - The initial exploration results from the Mumbezhi project are promising, showing copper grades similar to those of the Sentinel mine [1] - Sentinel is projected to produce 231,000 tons of copper in 2024, accounting for over half of First Quantum's total annual production of 431,000 tons [1] - First Quantum recently completed a $1.25 billion expansion project at the Kansanshi copper mine, extending its lifespan to 2046 and increasing annual production from approximately 170,000 tons to 280,000 tons [2] Group 3 - Zambia aims to increase its copper production to 3 million tons per year by 2031, driven by the rising demand from renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors [2] - The country is the second-largest copper producer in Africa, following the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with a projected copper production of 821,000 tons in 2024, a 12% increase from the previous year [2] - Other mining companies, such as Barrick Gold's Lumwana and Vedanta's Konkola, are also seeking to boost their production levels [2]

智通财经7月12日电，智利国家铜业公司总裁称上半年铜产量增长9%。 ...

力拓希望在特朗普关税环境下加大对美国铜矿的投资。 ...

以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者有色组 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 引言 美国总统特朗普7月8日表示，将对从海外进口的铜及铜相关产品征收50%的额外关税。还将对药品及药品原料征收200%的额外关 税，但将设置一年以上的缓冲期。特朗普表示这两项措施均会在近期正式公布。 白宫讨论的这些额外关税，依然是依据美国《贸易扩展法》第232条，如果实际启动，将成为继汽车、钢铝制品之后又一项按领域 征收的关税。 预计征税对象不仅包括铜本身，还将涵盖铜线、铜废料以及含铜产品等衍生品，但不包括铜精矿，也不包含用铜终端如家电、电子 等板块。 消息公布后， COMEX铜期货三连涨，触及5.89美元/磅，刷新历史高位。而LME铜期货价格则震荡承压，一度快速回落至9553美 元/吨，随后有所反弹。国内沪铜主力合约测试78160元/吨低位后小幅回升。 为什么是铜？ 首先，我们要弄清，为什么美国要加铜关税？大致来看，美国每年生产大约80-85万吨精炼铜，但消费量却高达160万吨。这一缺口完 全依 ...

7月10日（周四），据生产商和分析师称，如果美国特朗普总统推进对精炼铜而非电线等产品征收50%的关税，美国铜买家将付出高昂代价。 随着特朗普准备自8月1日起对进口铜征收50%的关税，全球供应链正为该措施的细节而焦灼。智利占美国铜出口总量的约70%，该国政府正在争取豁免，称 鉴于美国近一半的铜需求依赖进口，美国制造业几乎没有其他选择。 **寻求豁免** 智利矿业部长Aurora Williams 周四表示，智利尚未收到任何正式通知，也不清楚50%关税的具体细节，但一直在与美国官员的讨论中寻求豁免。 智利生产商出口的是"具有高度可追溯性的顶级精炼铜，因此我们希望这一点不仅在美国，而且在整个市场都能得到应有的认可，"这位部长告诉记者。"智 利的矿业生产，无论从哪个角度看，都肩负着高度的责任，对美国制造业来说，它受到高度重视且至关重要。" 麦格理分析师Alice Fox表示，对生产铜线、铜棒和铜管等中间产品的美国制造商购买外国金属征税，将推高生产成本，削弱其国际竞争力。 安托法加斯塔公司首席执行官Ivan Arriagada周四在圣地亚哥对记者表示："毫无疑问，这将给美国铜产品制造商带来压力，因此令人担忧。" 对于像 ...

Macro News - The main gold futures price in Shanghai reported at 774.36 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.41%. The opening price was 774.6 CNY per gram, with a high of 775.46 CNY and a low of 770.46 CNY [1] - Recent developments indicate that tariff negotiations between the US and Europe are accelerating, with the automotive sector being a key focus for the EU. Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro may request Trump to lift tariffs on Brazil, while current President Lula has stated that if negotiations with the US fail, reciprocal tariffs will be implemented. Chile is seeking exemption from US copper tariffs, and Vietnam has not agreed to Trump's proposed tariff increase from 11% to 20% [1] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a consideration for interest rate cuts in the fall, with expectations of two cuts this year. There is no evidence of sustained tariff impacts on prices. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July is 92.8%, with a 7.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 29.7%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 65.4% [1] Institutional Views - As the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches, market risk aversion has slightly returned, allowing gold to demonstrate resilience. Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, providing support for precious metals. Overall, despite short-term market fluctuations, the substantial increase in US tariffs is expected to lead to a rebound in inflation and economic slowdown, with the "Big and Beautiful" act likely exacerbating US debt and deficit issues. Therefore, support for precious metals is expected to remain resilient, continuing a high-level oscillation trend [1]

据央视新闻7月11日消息，在美国宣布将自8月1日起对巴西商品征收50%关税后，当地时间7月10日，巴 西总统卢拉接受采访时表示，巴西将与美国进行关税谈判，若无效将采取对等反制措施。 当地时间9日，巴西政府称，已告知美国大使馆，将退回美国总统特朗普当天发送的信函，并决定召见 美国驻巴西临时代办埃斯科瓦尔，要求其对信函中关于前总统博索纳罗的部分作出解释。 美国总统特朗普9日对外发布致巴西总统卢拉的信函，除了威胁将对进口自巴西的产品征收50%的关税 外，他还在信函中宣称，"卢拉正在对巴西前总统博索纳罗展开政治迫害，应立即停止"。对此，巴西总 统卢拉9日表示，巴西不会接受被任何人控制，对于美国单方面宣布提高巴西出口产品的关税，巴西将 予以回应。 巴西前总统博索纳罗目前正在接受巴西最高法院的调查。博索纳罗在2022年10月的总统选举中落败。 2023年1月8日，部分博索纳罗支持者冲击巴西国会、总统府和联邦最高法院，造成严重破坏。巴西检察 机构指控博索纳罗与多名高级幕僚共同策划政变，试图推动军事干预以推翻选举结果。 图片来源：央视新闻 卢拉表示，巴西将优先尝试进行关税谈判，并就美方单边加征关税措施在世界贸易组织提起诉讼。 ...

智利国家铜业委员会：智利埃斯孔迪达矿铜产量在5月同比增长24.4%，达到13.2万吨。 ...