朋友们大家好！今天小界来和大家聊聊全球市场的稀缺金属板块如今形势！凌晨美股盘中，一锂矿龙头 飙升三成，雅宝股价一度上扬10%，锂矿板块全线走强。此番态势的核心诱因，乃是津巴布韦突如其来 的出口禁令。 津巴布韦一刀切禁运，锂价迎来暴涨拐点 作为全球第四大锂矿生产国，该国锂资源储量高达1.2亿吨，却突然宣布所有锂精矿与原矿即日起全面 暂停出口，即便货物已在运输途中，也一律禁止出境。 这般强硬且突兀的政策，如巨石投入平静湖面，激起千层浪，直接重塑了全球锂资源的供应格局，让原 本稳定的态势瞬间风云变幻。 津巴布韦的政策逻辑十分清晰，并非单纯限制出口，而是要重塑产业链利益分配。其核心目标是倒逼境 外企业在当地投资建厂，放弃低附加值的原矿与锂精矿出口模式； 仅允许利润空间更高的硫酸锂出口，将产业链最核心、利润最丰厚的加工环节，牢牢锁定在本国境内。 这一禁令落地，锂价的走向已然没有悬念。津巴布韦占据中国锂精矿进口量的15%； 而当前国内上游锂精矿库存不足2万吨，材料厂库存周转天数不足10天，极低的库存水平根本无法承受 此次断供带来的冲击。 3月份本就是新能源产业链需求回暖的节点，行业原本就存在供需缺口，津巴布韦断供进一步放 ...

隔夜LME镍涨0.73%报18045美元/吨，沪镍涨0.11%报141680元/吨。库存方面，LME库存增加480吨至 287808吨，SHFE 仓单增加1253吨至53177吨。升贴水来看，LME0-3月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水 维持50元/吨。节前ESDM部矿产和煤炭总干事Tri Winarno透露，批准的镍矿生产配额在2.6亿吨到2.7亿 吨之间，与上年RKAB的生产目标大幅缩水；根据铁合金在线，受镍矿供应紧张及炉子检修影响，印尼 某镍铁工厂产量下降，预计影响产量3-4万实物吨/月；根据路透社报道，再次发生尾矿滑坡后，印尼环 境部长Hanif Faisol Nurofiq称正考虑取消青美邦新能源有限公司的环境许可。基本面来看镍矿升水再度 走强，根据铁合金在线报道，节后报价在35-40不等（不含奖励）美元/吨。根据SMM数据显示印尼火 法、湿法镍矿库存指数下降，分别主要受到监控系统延迟和新项目投产所致，叠加印尼配额收紧的预 期，后续或仍存在资源供给偏紧的担忧，推动边界成本支撑继续抬升。阶段性需求环比转弱，但成本支 撑依旧坚实，叠加印尼消息面多有扰动，持续关注成本线附近轻仓试多机会，后续显性库存如能明显 ...

2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：不确定性增强，价格震荡 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：区间震荡 | 5 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 7 | | 锡：关注关税影响 | 8 | | 铝：节后风偏偏强 | 9 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 9 | | 铂：受白银走强提振 | 11 | | 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 | 11 | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | 15 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂复产节奏 | 17 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格下跌 | 17 | | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | ...

摩根大通2月23日发布最新研判，预估2026年全球铜市场将面临约13万吨的供应缺口。与此同时，该行 对铜价给出了阶段性预测：2026年第二季度铜价为每吨13，500美元，第三季度为每吨13，000美元。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 供给收紧与需求韧性的叠加，使得铜市场的供需天平进一步向缺口方向倾斜。摩根大通此次对2026年铜 市13万吨供应缺口的预估，反映出该行对全球铜矿新增产能释放节奏偏慢、而下游消费增长稳健这一格 局的基本判断。 值得注意的是，全球贸易政策的变化也在为铜市增添变量。摩根大通研究所近期发布的报告显示，美国 中型企业自2025年初以来月度关税支出已增至原来的三倍，关税成本对产业链的传导效应不容忽视，这 在一定程度上可能影响铜的跨区域流通与定价格局。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 铜矿供应端的收缩压力是这一判断的重要背景。此前，南方铜业等主要铜矿企业已相继下调2026年及 2027年的产量预期，全球铜精矿供给增量面临不确定性。中邮证券在2月初发布的有色金属行业研报中 也指出，"由于自由港、泰克资源以及南方铜业等企业26年产量预期 ...

1. 2月9日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.06%，标普500指数期货跌0.17%，纳指期货跌0.33%。 | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.32%，英国富时100指数跌0.13%，法国CAC40指数涨0.03%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.21%。 | | --- | | 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油涨0.44%，报63.83美元/桶。布伦特原油涨0.41%，报68.33美元/桶。 | 市场消息 非农+CPI本周来袭。展望本周，市场迎来关键数据窗口期。周二，美国商务部将公布12月零售销售数据;原定于上周公布的1月非农就业报告因政府短暂停 摆而延迟，将于周三发布。经济学家预计上月将新增7万个非农就业岗位，失业率预计维持在4.4%不变。这份非农就业报告发布之际正逢美国劳动力市场显 露不稳迹象。另外值得注意的是，本次1月非农就业报告除涵盖常规月度非农就业和失业数据外，还将包含年度就业修正数据。外界预计，修正数据将显示 截至2025年3月的一年里，美国就业增长幅度大幅低于最初公布的水平。周五则将迎来关键通胀数据。美国劳工统计局将发布消费者价格指数(CPI)报告，市 场预计环比上涨0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto's termination of merger talks with Glencore highlights valuation disagreements and management control issues, reflecting the challenges faced by traditional mining companies amid global energy transition [1][2]. Group 1: Merger Negotiation Breakdown - The merger discussions between Rio Tinto and Glencore date back to before the 2008 financial crisis, with previous attempts in 2014 and 2024 also failing [1]. - Key issues leading to the breakdown include Glencore's high valuation demands, insisting on a 40% stake post-merger, and claiming its copper business is undervalued [2]. - Discrepancies in copper asset valuation between the two companies amount to several billion dollars, complicating negotiations [2]. Group 2: Management Control Disputes - Rio Tinto aimed to retain the chairman and CEO positions post-merger without offering sufficient premium compensation, which Glencore opposed, citing a lack of control premium [2]. - The strong stance from Rio Tinto is linked to its new CEO Simon Trott's aggressive expansion strategy focused on copper [2]. Group 3: Industry Context and Trends - The failed merger reflects broader trends in the mining industry, where companies are increasingly pursuing mergers to secure copper resources amid rising demand from electric vehicles and renewable energy [4]. - The International Copper Study Group predicts a global copper shortfall of 4.7 million tons by 2030, with new mine development taking 10-15 years, making mergers a viable growth strategy [4]. - If the merger had succeeded, Rio Tinto's copper production would have doubled to 2.3 million tons per year, surpassing Codelco as the largest copper producer [4]. Group 4: Industry Consolidation and Challenges - The breakup of the merger underscores the fierce competition among mining giants for industry dominance, with recent examples of mergers like BHP's acquisition of Anglo American assets [5]. - Smaller mining companies face a challenging environment, with a projected increase in mining transaction values by 2025, leading to a trend where they may either be acquired or marginalized [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the merger's failure, the competition for copper resources among mining giants is expected to continue, with forecasts predicting copper prices could exceed $12,000 per ton by 2026 [6]. - Future mergers may focus on smaller, high-potential mining assets or involve partnerships and technology sharing to mitigate risks associated with valuation disagreements [6]. - The failure of this merger highlights the strategic contradictions faced by traditional mining companies in rapidly evolving energy markets, indicating that the quest for consolidation is far from over [6].

在铜价空前火热的时刻，本有望缔造全球最大矿业公司的超级并购谈判宣告破裂。这也是力拓与嘉能可 合并的尝试十多年来第三次以失败告终。在能源转型和AI发展成为多国竞争的关键发展高地之际，铜 的资源供应越来越受到重视。然而，供不应求正成为横亘在产业面前、不得不面对的问题。 估值分歧 当天，力拓集团宣布放弃与嘉能可的合并谈判，双方未能就交易估值达成一致，令这桩市值超2000亿美 元的世界级矿业整合计划无果而终。目前，力拓市值约1560亿美元，嘉能可市值约750亿美元。 嘉能可目前是全球第六大铜生产商，公司正努力在10年内将铜产能翻一倍，争取成为"世界铜王"。力拓 也有铜矿业务，若与嘉能可合并，将力压必和必拓成为全球最大铜生产商，还能获得每年约100万吨的 产量增长空间。 力拓在声明中表示，已确定无法达成一份能为股东创造价值的协议。嘉能可则在声明中回应称，力拓提 出的关键条款"严重低估了嘉能可的潜在相对价值贡献"，特别是其铜业务和增长管道的价值。力拓试图 在合并后保留董事长和首席执行官（CEO）职位，但未能提供足够溢价。 媒体获悉，公布放弃决定前，力拓完成了尽职调查，无法认同嘉能可所要求的高额收购溢价。此次谈判 中，嘉能 ...

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - JPMorgan forecasts strong demand from central banks and investors will drive gold prices to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, with silver expected to stabilize between $75 and $80 per ounce in the coming quarters [1] - Zhongjin believes the current gold bull market will continue for some time, with potential scenarios including the end of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle or significant advancements in the AI sector boosting economic growth and lowering inflation [4][5] - Galaxy Securities asserts that the core logic of a long-term gold bull market remains solid, with central bank gold purchases expected to continue increasing [6] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - Dutch International notes that the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to change its policy direction in the upcoming meeting, but discussions on foreign exchange could lower the threshold for future rate cuts [1] - Deutsche Bank emphasizes that the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates reflects a balanced policy approach, despite external vulnerabilities [3] - Zhongjin anticipates that the People's Bank of China will increase easing measures in the second quarter, with expectations of two or more rate cuts throughout the year [5] Group 3: Currency and Economic Outlook - TD Securities predicts a rebound in the US dollar in the first quarter, which may halt the recent strong performance of the British pound against the dollar [2] - Zhongjin suggests that the Fed's eventual rate cuts may exceed market expectations, potentially leading to a return of dollar easing trades in the short term [5] - Zhongjin also forecasts that the Chinese economy will maintain ample liquidity throughout 2026, supporting consumer spending and retail growth [5] Group 4: Semiconductor and Storage Industry - CITIC Securities expects strong demand for storage chips driven by AI, predicting price increases throughout 2026 and benefiting domestic storage manufacturers [6] - The report highlights that semiconductor materials related to wafer manufacturing will see significant demand growth, benefiting core suppliers in the industry [6] Group 5: Healthcare and Insurance Sector - CITIC Securities identifies platform companies with integrated insurance resources and technological barriers as potential industry leaders in the healthcare sector [7] - The report suggests that commercial insurance is likely to become a core growth driver in the healthcare payment system, supported by policy benefits and data asset utilization [7] Group 6: Market Trends and Valuation - CITIC Securities anticipates that the market will gradually stabilize after experiencing high volatility due to significant capital movements, with asset pricing returning to focus on domestic policy and economic recovery [8] - Galaxy Securities highlights that certain copper mining stocks in the A-share market have high valuation margins for 2026, indicating strong investment potential [9] - CITIC JianTou notes that the performance of listed brokerages is expected to improve significantly, supported by increased trading volumes and favorable policies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities highlights the construction of a copper resource reserve system in China aimed at enhancing the resilience and security of the domestic copper supply chain, amidst a global context of resource competition and increasing copper shortages, which is expected to drive copper prices up due to a "safety premium" [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Resource Reserve System - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced on February 3 that it will enhance the copper resource reserve system by expanding the national copper strategic reserve and exploring a commercial reserve mechanism through fiscal subsidies for state-owned enterprises [1]. - The current high-level copper reserve strategy transcends mere price stabilization and aligns with national goals to ensure the security of critical industrial supply chains [2]. Group 2: Global Copper Market Dynamics - The competition among major powers for resource security is reshaping the copper supply-demand balance, with increased reserves leading to reduced market supply and heightened tension [3]. - The anticipated copper shortage is expected to worsen by 2026, with a projected reduction in global refined copper surplus to 170,000 tons, potentially leading to price increases if China engages in significant reserve purchases [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Demand - Recent declines in copper prices have stimulated downstream demand, with a notable increase in orders for copper rods, which surged to 42,000 tons, marking a historical high [4]. - The improved acceptance of lower copper prices has accelerated procurement activities, enhancing market liquidity and supporting a potential recovery in copper prices [4].

中金认为，中美均推出铜资源储备计划，战略囤库需求持续增长。产业补库托底铜价，春季旺季补库叠 加供应偏紧或进一步推升铜价。长期看，铜行业牛市主升浪风鹏正举，短期调整迎来布局良机。 中金又指，据Mysteel数据，周一国内铜价短暂回落，下游补库需求环比大幅增长，当日电解铜、铜杆 成交量达3.8、4.3万吨，环比分别增长108%、198%，分别创近三月、2025年3月来新高。 中金维持相关公司盈利预测、目标及评级不变。建议关注铜矿自给率高、有较强增储上产和外延并购潜 力的龙头标的，包括紫金矿业(02899)、洛阳钼业(03993)、西部矿业(601168.SH)、金诚信(603979.SH)、 铜陵有色(000630.SZ)等。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫周二(3日)在《2025年有色 金属工业经济运行情况》记者会提出完善铜资源储备体系建设。美国亦于周一宣布正启动一项120亿美 元的关键矿产储备计划("Project Vault")，包括稀土、锂、铜等美国地质调查局认定的50多种关键矿产， 以对冲供应链风险。 ...