锂：旺季需求下锂盐进入去库周期，锂价有望底部回升。本周碳酸锂价格持平为7.36万 元/吨，锂辉石精矿下跌2.21%至839美元/吨。本周碳酸锂期货主力合约2511下跌1.76%至7.27 万元/吨。供给端，本周碳酸锂产量2.06万吨，环比增加0.6%。SMM周度库存13.48万吨，环 比减少1.5%。我们认为当前处于锂电产业链金九银十需求旺季，下游备库需求增加，碳酸 锂进入去库周期，锂价底部具备支撑，后续有望回升。我们建议关注具备第二增长曲线的低 估值标的和仍具备锂自给率提升和降本空间标的：赣锋锂业（锂+储能+固态电池）、雅化 集团（锂+民爆）、中矿资源（锂+小金属+铜）、天齐锂业。 钴：刚果金将实施钴出口配额制，钴价有望加速上涨。本周MB钴上涨4.19%至19.90美 元/磅，国内电钴价格上涨2.87%至35.9万元/吨。9月20日，刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管局 （ARECOMS）公告，将自10月16日起解除钴出口禁令，改为实施钴出口配额制，具体配额 方案为：2025年10月16日—12月31日期间，钴出口总量上限为1.81万吨，其中10月为3625 吨，11月、12月各为7250吨；2026年与2027年 ...

Core Views - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a delicate balance in China-US relations while encouraging companies to pursue overseas expansion despite external disturbances [1][5] - It highlights the potential investment opportunities in the Chinese bond market due to the global shift towards monetary easing [18] Section Summaries Government Policies - The Ministry of Transport announced a special port fee for American vessels starting October 14, 2023, as a countermeasure against US restrictions on Chinese shipbuilding [3] Equity Market - CITIC Securities suggests that resource security, overseas expansion, and technological competition are key structural trends, with a focus on mitigating external disturbances [5] - Hua'an Fund notes that the trend of de-dollarization and unresolved political risks in Europe and the US continue to support gold, recommending a long-term allocation of 5% to 15% in investment portfolios [6] - CITIC Jiantou Securities identifies four main macro trading themes for October, including US government shutdown and RMB internationalization, predicting an upward trend in gold prices and a weakening dollar index [7] Industry Research - Huaxia Fund anticipates that Hong Kong tech stocks will continue to rise, driven by AI catalysts and attractive valuations [12] - Morgan Stanley Fund expects a rebound in financial stock valuations due to improved profitability in the Chinese financial sector [13] - Huatai Securities predicts that copper prices may strengthen due to production cuts at the Grasberg copper mine [14] Bond Market - CICC's fixed income team believes that the global trend of declining interest rates will create favorable conditions for the Chinese bond market [18] - Xinda Securities suggests maintaining a moderate leverage strategy in high-grade credit bonds while focusing on opportunities in the bond market [19] - Huayuan Securities advises against overly aggressive credit allocation strategies in the current low-interest-rate environment [20] Asset Allocation - Guolian Minsheng Investment advises focusing on high-growth sectors like batteries and semiconductors while considering low-position opportunities in resource stocks [22]

五矿证券近日发布有色金属海内外24家半年报全扫描：2025H1全球头部铜企产量741万 吨，同比+20万吨，同比增速为2.8%。从同比增速来看，24家铜矿企业中，仅有9家企业的 产量同比增速出现下滑，减量的原因主要系原矿品位和回收率降低、水资源限制等外部干扰 等。从同比增量来看，贡献主要增量的为力拓（同比+11万吨）、五矿资源（同比+10万 吨）、智利国家铜业（同比+6万吨）、紫金矿业（同比+5万吨）等。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事件描述 我们梳理了全球24家铜矿企业（2025H1头部24家铜企合计产量为741万吨，市占率60% 以上）的半年报及投资者交流纪要，想要回答以下几个问题： 事件点评 （1）从全年产量指引来看，2025年头部铜企产量指引难言乐观。根据最新的产量指 引，2025年头部铜企的产量指引预计同比+1.7%，相较于2025年初的产量指引有所下调（年 初的产量指引同比+2.8%）。例如，嘉能可、泰克资源、智利国家铜业等下调了产量指引； 力拓预期产量位于指引上限。综合来看，产量指引合计下调了11.4万吨（公告产量指引上/下 沿的按照指引最高/低值计算，其余按照中值计算）。下调指引的原因包括尾矿建设延 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 * | | --- | --- | --- | | 517400 | 黄金股票ETF | 9.47% | | 561330 | ANVETF | 8.58% | | 159881 | 有色60ETF | 8.44% | 资料来源：wind 黄金方面，美元信用走弱仍是长期支撑逻辑。当地时间9月17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的 货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。从美国9月FOMC会 议纪要看，美联储官员在降息幅度问题上存在分歧。9月会议的投票结果为11比1。唯一反对的成员是由 美国总统特朗普任命、并在9月会议首日上午宣誓就职的新上任的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran），他主张降息0.5个百分点。而关于2025年是否会进一步降息，在参加会议的19位官员中，略多 于一半的人预计今年还将至少再降息两次，但有少数人预计2025年剩余时间内只会降息一次或不再降 息。 节后首个交易日迎开门红，沪指高开高走突破3900点整数大关，刷新2015年8月以来新高。沪深两市成 交额2.65万亿，较上一个交易日放量4718亿。截至 ...

铜价触及逾16个月高位后，在美上市的铜矿企业股价盘前上涨。自由港麦克莫兰公司股价上涨3.1%， 南方铜业公司股价上涨2.1%，泰克资源公司股价上涨2.4%。必和必拓股价上涨1.4%，力拓股价上涨 0.7%。 来源：视频滚动新闻 ...

新华财经上海10月9日电（林郑宏）10月9日，长假归来的A股市场实现"开门红"，三大股指联袂上涨， 其中沪指上涨1.32%，收盘报3933.97点，"9.24"行情以来首次收盘站上3900点整数关口，距离4000点仅 一步之遥。 值得注意的是，沪指上一次收盘高于3900点还要追溯到2015年8月17日，这意节后首个交易日收盘，沪 指点位创下10年多来的新高。 从成交额来看，当日沪深两市合计成交额超2.65万亿元，创9月18日以来最高单日成交水平。两市合计 24只个股成交额超百亿元，亦为近期罕见现象。 板块方面，资源股成为推动沪指走强主要动力，其中黄金板块掀起涨停潮，紫金矿业、西部黄金、四川 黄金、山东黄金、中金黄金、招金黄金等多股涨停，板块内个股平均涨幅超8%。分析观点认为，长假 期间，国际金价不断走高，期货和现货端相继突破4000美元/盎司大关，港股黄金股长假期间表现突 出，节后开盘，A股黄金板块现"井喷"行情并不意外。 除黄金股外，锂矿、稀土、铜矿股等资源股细分方向均大幅上涨。锂矿股方面，长假期间美国政府宣布 入股美洲锂业带动后者股价暴涨，天齐锂业H股、赣锋锂业H股等在假期中股价均已大涨，两公司A股 开市 ...

铜矿股盘前延续涨势，Taseko Mines涨近4%，麦克莫兰铜金涨超3%，南方铜业涨超2%。 消息面上，花旗将0-3个月铜价目标从每吨1.05万美元上调至1.1万美元，并预计到2026年第二季度铜价 将平均达到1.2万美元。该行列出几大催化因素，包括美联储人事变动、贸易协议进展、财政刺激落地 以及铜矿供应下调等。此外，高盛将2026年的铜价预测从每吨1万美元上调至1.05万美元，同时维持对 2027年每吨10750美元的预测。(格隆汇) ...

港股三大指数午后震荡回落，恒生指数收跌0.29%，国企指数微幅上涨0.07%，恒生科技指数转跌至 0.66%，恒指、恒科指连续4日走低。 另一方面，半导体芯片股午后跳水明显，龙头中芯国际跌近7%，华虹半导体、宏光半导体、上海复旦 跟跌，生物医药类股全天低迷，创新药概念方向跌幅明显，加密货币概念股、影视股、苹果概念股、军 工股普遍低迷。(格隆汇) 盘面上，大型科技股涨跌参半，其中，快手涨3.56%，网易、腾讯、京东勉强飘红，阿里巴巴跌2.4%， 百度跌超1%，小米跌0.9%；供给短缺+算力革命助推铜价上涨，铜矿股全天强势引领有色金属股上涨， 中国大冶有色金属飙涨超21%表现最佳，中国黄金国际、江西铜业股份、中国有色矿业皆大涨；国内海 风市场9月迎来招中标高峰期，风电股午后涨幅扩大，高铁基建股、航空股、煤炭股、建材水泥股、电 力股、燃气股、纸业股表现活跃。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The global copper supply is expected to remain tight in the second half of 2025, with a projected production of 570 million tons from major mining companies, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [2][24] - The average C1 cash cost for major copper companies decreased to $1.72 per pound in the first half of 2025, down 8.7% year-on-year, with most companies experiencing a decline in costs due to increased copper production and strong by-product prices [3][21] - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources is anticipated to create a top five global copper producer, with an annual output exceeding 1.2 million tons [3][36] Summary by Sections Section 1: Supply and Demand - In the first half of 2025, the production of the top 24 copper companies reached 7.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20,000 tons, with a growth rate of 2.8% [1][11] - The production guidance for 2025 has been revised downwards to a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, compared to an initial forecast of 2.8% [2][13] Section 2: Cost Analysis - The average C1 cash cost for 15 copper companies was $1.72 per pound in the first half of 2025, with only four companies reporting an increase in costs [3][21] - The decline in costs is attributed to higher copper output and favorable by-product prices, particularly for companies like Minmetals Resources and Antofagasta [25][21] Section 3: Financial Performance - Chinese copper companies showed an increase in net profit margins and free cash flow, while overseas companies experienced declines in these metrics [29][30] - The free cash flow for overseas copper companies dropped by an average of 54%, contrasting with a 432% increase for Chinese companies [29][30] Section 4: Strategic Developments - Freeport-McMoRan is advocating for U.S. policies to boost refined copper production and is exploring copper scrap as a potential source [36] - The Cobre Panama mine is under consideration for a restart in early 2026, with ongoing negotiations between Panama and First Quantum Minerals [36]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have shown strong performance post-holiday, driven by the synergy of policy benefits and industry trends, with significant gains in technology growth sectors and cyclical resource products [1] Market Performance - A-share market indices have demonstrated strong growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.24% to 3931.07 points, marking a ten-year high; the ChiNext Index increased by 1.77% to 3295.58 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index surged 5.59% [2] - Over 3200 stocks in the A-share market rose, with a notable concentration of gains in nuclear power, gold, and semiconductor sectors, indicating a clear market focus on technology and resource sectors [2] - The Hong Kong market showed a slight recovery, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.04% to 26840.95 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 0.63% [2] Industry Highlights and Driving Logic - The A-share market's technology and resource sectors have formed a leading growth tier, with the metals sector rising 6.51% and gold stocks benefiting from international gold prices exceeding $4000 per ounce [3] - The semiconductor industry remains robust, with a projected 27% share of AI data center semiconductor sales by 2025, driven by price reversals in storage chips and domestic substitution logic [3] - In the Hong Kong market, cyclical and infrastructure sectors have performed well, with copper prices driven by supply shortages and demand from computing power [3] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - Traditional consumer and cyclical sectors in the A-share market are under pressure, with the media sector down 1.5% due to disappointing box office results, and real estate stocks experiencing widespread declines [4] - The Hong Kong market's pharmaceutical and consumer electronics sectors are struggling, with innovative drug stocks facing policy risks and valuation adjustments [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The current market is positioned at a critical juncture of "intensive policy implementation and accelerated industry trends," with three main investment themes suggested for Q4 [5] - The technology growth sector remains a core focus, particularly in the AI industry chain, with opportunities in semiconductor equipment, storage chips, and AI applications [5] - The cyclical and resource sectors present significant supply-demand mismatch opportunities, particularly in precious metals and chemical sectors, with expectations of performance recovery [5] Policy-Driven Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes new productivity areas such as AI and high-end manufacturing, with increased policy support for critical sectors like controlled nuclear fusion and semiconductor equipment [6] - The consumer sector may see marginal improvements, with low-valuation categories like home appliances and food and beverage potentially benefiting from upcoming consumption stimulus policies [6]