铜：坚定看好铜板块投资机会及铜框架梳理 20250825 摘要 配置。从需求端来看，随着 8 月份淡季结束，从 9 月份开始将进入交易旺季， 到整个四季度需求预计会比三季度尤其是 7~8 月份更好。今年三季度由于抢出 口和光伏抢装等因素导致需求透支严重，加上高温天气使得 7~8 月成为传统淡 季，但实际数据表现优于预期。 铜价与权益市场之间存在何种关系？ 在降息周期中，尽管铜价上涨弹性不需要太高，但权益市场表现可能会更好。 例如，在 2019 年美元指数首次降息后，虽然当年下半年铜价涨幅不算太高， 但相关股票表现却远好于铜价。因此，我们认为在当前及未来一段时间内，即 使铜价上涨有限，其相关股票仍具有较大的投资价值。 四季度有色金属板块，尤其是铜，前景乐观。紫金矿业和洛阳钼业为标 配标的，重点关注同有色，因其明年铜矿增量最大且估值最低，并具潜 在分红提升逻辑。 国内电解铜月供应约 180-190 万吨，需求波动于 170-210 万吨间。 2025 年国内需求强劲，受益于下游冷库需求和电解铜出口，电力、汽 车和家电为主要用铜行业。 全球铜供给持续紧张，2025 年预计精炼铜产量增速约为 2%，新增供应 有限。铜 ...

锂：旺季需求下锂盐有望去库，锂价持续回升。本周碳酸锂价格上涨1.45%至8.4万元/ 吨，锂辉石精矿下跌0.64%至934美元/吨。本周碳酸锂期货主力合约2511下跌9.14%至7.9万 元/吨。供给端，本周碳酸锂产量1.9万吨，环比减少4.2%。SMM周度库存14.2万吨，环比减 少0.5%。本周碳酸锂现货价格持续回升，金九银十旺季即将到来，下游备库需求增加，叠 加前期部分矿端和冶炼厂减停产，碳酸锂有望迎来去库，锂价短期具备向上动能。锂价回升 背景下，权益板块短期有望迎来反弹，我们建议关注具备第二增长曲线的低估值标的和仍具 备锂自给率提升和降本空间标的：雅化集团（锂+民爆）、中矿资源（锂+小金属+铜）、天 齐锂业、赣锋锂业。 钴：7月钴原料进口量持续下滑，原料库存有望加速消化，钴价后续有望迎来上行。本 周国内电钴价格下跌0.38%至26.1万元/吨。6月21日，刚果金宣布将钴出口临时禁令再延长3 个月，以遏制钴国际市场供应过剩。7月中国钴湿法冶炼中间产品进口量为1.4万吨（折合 0.41万吨金属钴），环比下降27%，同比下降73%。出口禁令延长将加速钴原料库存去化， Q4或出现原料紧缺情况，钴价后续有望持续 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注杰克逊霍尔年会 【市场资讯】1）鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔年会讲话前，美联储明年票委称 9 月可能不会降息， 今年票委对行动犹豫，此后两年期美债收益率接近三周高位；美联储主席候选人布拉德建 议激进：今年降息 100 基点，9 月首次行动。2）美国司法部施压开除美联储理事库克，特 朗普倾向她自动请辞。3）美国 8 月制造业 PMI 初值 53.3，意外创三年多新高，通胀压力 加剧；美国劳动力市场降温愈发明显，上周首次申请失业救济人数意外飙升 1.1 万，续请 人数升至四年高位。4）欧元区商业活动创 15 个月新高，制造业 PMI 冲上 50、结束三年收 缩，德国制造业强势复苏。5）美欧就贸易协定框架达成一致，美国重申对欧盟 15%关税上 限，称对欧盟汽车的关税可能几周内降低。 波动率较低，汇率的显著波动预计将在 9、10 月提升。在高度不确定的外部环境，叠加内 部弱复苏的背景下，美元兑人民币即期汇率短期内大概率在 7.15-7.23 运行。进一步来看， 若杰克逊霍尔会议无更多预期外的信息指引，7.20 下方大概率仍将是主要运行区间。 【风险提示】海外货币政策调整超预期、地缘政治冲突超预期、特朗普非 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite continues to contract, with A-shares surging and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 leading the gains. The market is waiting for the further development of the relationships among the US, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, as well as the guidance from Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday [2][5]. - The prices of precious metals rebounded due to increased market uncertainty. Copper prices are waiting for a driving force. Aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a limited range. Alumina prices face increasing pressure. Zinc prices are stabilizing and recovering. Lead prices are weakly oscillating. Tin prices are in a tangled state. Industrial silicon prices are weakly oscillating. Lithium carbonate prices are fluctuating widely. Nickel prices are oscillating within a range. Crude oil prices are oscillating. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. Palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][19][20][21][22][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals. Most people believe that inflation risks are higher than employment risks, with differences focusing on the impact of tariffs and interest rate levels. Some are worried about the instability of long - term inflation expectations and the fragility of the US Treasury market, and also concerned about the potential risks of stablecoins. Trump pressured to remove "dissidents" from the Fed, and the independence of the Fed is under threat. The market risk appetite continues to decline, with the US dollar index oscillating weakly, the 10Y US Treasury yield slightly declining, and US stocks continuing to fall. Gold, copper, and oil all rebounded. Attention is paid to the US August PMI tonight [2]. - Domestic: Leaders conducted intensive research and made speeches. A - shares rebounded after Wednesday's oscillation, with the trading volume shrinking to 2.45 trillion yuan. The market risk appetite recovered, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose by more than 3%, and sectors such as GPU and liquor led the gains. The bond market fell again as the stock market strengthened. The short - term risk appetite may be approaching the peak, and the bond market is expected to start a recovery [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious metal futures prices both closed higher. Trump's call for Fed Governor Cook to resign increased market uncertainty, the US dollar index turned down, and precious metal prices rebounded. The Fed's July meeting minutes were hawkish. The meeting between the leaders of the US, Ukraine, and Russia cooled down. Investor risk aversion increased. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated narrowly, and LME copper sought support at the 9700 level. The macro situation shows that the Fed is facing a dilemma between rising inflation and a deteriorating employment market. The market is highly concerned about Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday. The CME observation tool shows that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 85%. In terms of industry, First Quantum has launched a $1.25 billion expansion project for its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia. Short - term copper prices are expected to maintain an oscillating state waiting for a driving force [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,535 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The LME aluminum closed at $2,577/ton, up 0.37%. The Fed's July meeting minutes were hawkish. The short - term attitude of the Fed needs to be further observed. Fundamentally, aluminum prices have slightly declined in the past two days. At the transition between the off - season and peak season, downstream restocking at low prices has slightly improved, and the spot discount has converged. Technically, the downward adjustment range of aluminum prices is expected to be limited [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,147 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The supply of alumina is expected to increase in the future, and the warehouse receipt inventory continues to accumulate, so the price pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the changes in production capacity [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and slightly shifted upwards at night, and LME zinc closed higher. In July, the import of zinc concentrates exceeded expectations, while the import of refined zinc met expectations. Currently, raw materials are abundant. As zinc prices fall to near the previous low, downstream price fixing at low points increases. Short - term zinc prices are stabilizing and recovering, waiting for the guidance from Powell's speech on Friday [11][12]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly both during the day and at night, and LME lead closed higher. Globally, the high visible inventory exerts pressure on lead prices. Domestically, the improvement in consumption falls short of expectations, and the production side is relatively stable. Lead prices lack the driving force to rise but also have no continuous downward momentum due to cost support. The fundamentals maintain a state of weak supply and demand [13][14]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rebounded during the day and moved horizontally at night, and LME tin oscillated. In July, Myanmar's tin mines resumed production, but China's imports from Myanmar decreased instead. Indonesia's exports of refined tin decreased month - on - month, and overseas supplies remained tight. In the short term, the low LME inventory is difficult to reverse. Near Powell's speech, the expectation of a rate cut in September is volatile, and tin prices are in a tangled state [15]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon oscillated weakly. Fundamentally, the supply side is showing a marginal loosening trend, while the demand side has limited consumption growth. The social inventory decreased slightly last week. The domestic anti - involution sentiment has cooled down. Short - term futures prices are expected to enter a weakly oscillating state [16][17]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, carbonate lithium was weakly running, and the spot price was stable. An upstream salt factory in Jiangxi announced the resumption of production, but the actual output in August is expected to be limited. The core factor driving the wide - range price fluctuations may be the market's lack of confidence in the supply contraction promoted by policies. Short - term lithium prices may fluctuate widely due to emotional disturbances [19]. 3.11 Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices oscillated. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that the economic outlook remains pessimistic. Under the expectation of abundant nickel ore supply, the price is still strong, but nickel iron plants are under cost pressure. The refined nickel market is warming up. Nickel prices are at the lower end of the range, and attention should be paid to the rebound at low levels [20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Wednesday, crude oil oscillated and strengthened. The market is waiting for the progress of the tripartite peace talks, and the market disturbances are relatively limited. The significant inventory reduction by the EIA has temporarily boosted market sentiment. However, the bearish fundamentals and the expectation of cooling geopolitical risks remain unchanged, and oil prices maintain an oscillating and wait - and - see state [21]. 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 01 contract fell, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose. The second - day inspection results showed that the number of soybean pods in Nebraska was good, while that in Indiana was slightly lower than the same period last year. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to continue, and the yield per unit may be lowered. US soybean growers hope to reach a trade agreement with China. Short - term soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate [22][23][24]. 3.14 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 01 contract fell. The latest data shows that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil is good, which supports the price and limits the decline. The US's exemption obligation for small refineries may be introduced earlier than expected, and US soybean oil oscillated and fell. Short - term palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust [25][26].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the mining industry, specifically focusing on lithium and copper production, with significant attention on supply disruptions in China and Chile [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Supply Disruptions in China**: The recent suspension of operations at the Jianxiawo project is expected to impact supply by approximately 40,000 to 50,000 tons monthly, translating to around 4,000 tons per month [2][4]. 2. **Impact of Chilean Events**: A safety complaint at the Abao lithium plant in Chile, following a significant earthquake that caused fatalities, has raised concerns about potential production halts, which could further strain supply [2][3]. 3. **Overall Supply Impact**: Considering various disruptions across different regions, the total potential impact on supply could exceed 100,000 tons, creating a panic atmosphere in the market for lithium [4]. 4. **Inventory Management**: The fluctuations in inventory levels among downstream customers are crucial, as they significantly influence price movements in the market [5][6]. 5. **Copper Market Update**: The copper sector is experiencing a bullish trend due to strong expectations of interest rate cuts, which positively affects copper prices [8][9]. 6. **Chilean Copper Production**: The state-owned Codelco's Teniente mine has faced operational disruptions, with a significant portion of its production capacity still offline, affecting global copper supply [9][10][11]. 7. **Global Copper Supply Dynamics**: The overall copper production from major mining companies has seen a slight decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% in the first half of the year, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][12]. 8. **Investment Recommendations**: The focus remains on leading companies in the mining sector, particularly those with strong resource development capabilities, as they are expected to perform well despite market challenges [6][13]. Other Important Insights - The discussion highlighted the interconnectedness of supply disruptions and market prices, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring of inventory levels and production updates from key mining companies [5][6]. - The potential for panic in the lithium market due to supply constraints was noted, suggesting that market participants should be cautious [4]. - The overall sentiment in the mining sector is one of cautious optimism, with expectations of price increases supported by supply constraints and strong demand [12][13].

Summary of Zhongmin Resources Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongmin Resources - **Industry**: Lithium and minor metals mining, copper mining Key Points and Arguments Lithium Market Dynamics - A recent mine shutdown may shift the lithium carbonate market from surplus to shortage, potentially maintaining prices between 80,000 to 90,000 RMB, with further upside possible [2][3] - The shutdown of a lithium mica mine in Jiangxi has significantly impacted market supply, changing the monthly surplus from 3,000-4,000 tons to a potential shortage of 1,000-3,000 tons [3] Lithium Business Profitability - The Bikita mine in Zimbabwe has an annual capacity of 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with a production cost of approximately 60,000 RMB per ton, yielding a net profit of at least 10,000 RMB per ton at current prices [2][4] - The market valuation target for the lithium business is estimated to reach between 10 billion to 15 billion RMB [5] Minor Metals Business Growth - The salt business contributed approximately 500 million RMB in net profit last year, with an expected growth of over 20% this year [2][6] - The Namibia germanium business is projected to generate an annual net profit of 200-300 million RMB next year, with a target of over 1 billion RMB in net profit by 2026 [6] Copper Mining Project Potential - The Kasumba copper mine in Zambia has reserves exceeding 900,000 tons, with a planned annual capacity of 60,000 tons of copper, expected to start production in 2026 [2][7] - The project is anticipated to generate an annual net profit of 800 million RMB based on current copper prices [7] Diversification and Risk Management - Zhongmin Resources' diversified operations in lithium, minor metals, and copper enhance its risk resilience and earnings flexibility, raising the overall market valuation target to 38 billion RMB [2][8] Management Background and Impact - The management team has extensive experience in geological exploration, which has facilitated the company's strategic acquisitions and diversification into various mining sectors [9][10] Production Cost Advantages - The production cost for lithium salts in Africa is approximately 60,000 RMB per ton, with ongoing cost reduction measures expected to lower this further [16][17] Future Plans and Market Expansion - The company plans to build a lithium sulfate plant in Zimbabwe, which could reduce production costs by at least 5,000 RMB per ton if successful [17] - The Tanco mine in Canada is undergoing upgrades to increase its lithium production capacity, although its current contribution is limited [18] Valuation Assessment - The valuation methodology includes segment-based assessments, estimating the lithium business at 15 billion RMB, minor metals at 15 billion RMB, and copper at 8 billion RMB, leading to a total market valuation target of 38 billion RMB, indicating over 25% upside potential from the current valuation [20]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.678 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.8 billion yuan [1] - The gross profit margin for the potassium chloride business was 61.84%, while the lithium carbonate business had a gross profit margin of 30.53% [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 834 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 137.19% [2] Group 2: Potassium Chloride Business - The average selling price of potassium chloride (including tax) was 2,845 yuan per ton, an increase of 25.57% year-on-year, while the average sales cost was 996 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.36% year-on-year [1] - The rise in potassium fertilizer prices is attributed to global supply-demand mismatches, including U.S. tariffs on Canadian potassium fertilizer and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The company expects the tight supply-demand situation to support high prices as autumn fertilizer demand increases [1] Group 3: Lithium and Copper Projects - The company is actively pursuing the extension of its mining license for the Chaqi Mining Area, with approvals from various levels of government already received [2] - The first phase of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project is expected to have a lithium production cost of approximately 31,000 yuan per ton, benefiting from efficient production processes and controlled investment scales [2] - The company anticipates significant contributions to its performance from the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with an annual copper production of approximately 300,000 to 350,000 tons [3][4] Group 4: Synergies with Zijin Mining - The collaboration with Zijin Mining is expected to leverage world-class lithium resource reserves and the company's technical advantages in lithium extraction [3] - The synergy will manifest in low-cost lithium extraction processes, regional collaboration in Tibet, and enhanced resource management systems [3] - The company believes that Zijin Mining's control over Jilong Copper will improve operational efficiency and accelerate project development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium resource extraction by Cangge Mining's subsidiary, Geermu Cangge Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., has been halted by the government, raising investor concerns about the company's lithium business [1][2]. Group 1: Company Operations - Cangge Mining's subsidiary, Geermu Cangge Lithium, was ordered to stop lithium resource development activities on July 16, 2025, by the Haixi Prefecture Natural Resources Bureau and the Haixi Salt Lake Management Bureau [2][4]. - Following the notification, Geermu Cangge Lithium complied and ceased production, while Cangge Mining is actively working on the necessary procedures to resume lithium resource extraction once approvals are obtained [4][6]. - The company disclosed in its 2025 semi-annual report that the lithium extraction process from the Chaqi Salt Lake is compliant with regulations, and it has been developing technology for extracting lithium from low-concentration brine since 2017 [5][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Cangge Mining reported a revenue of 1.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.8 billion yuan, an increase of 38.80% [8][9]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate was approximately 67,500 yuan per ton, with an average cost of about 41,500 yuan per ton, leading to a significant decline in revenue from the lithium business, which fell by 57.90% year-on-year to 267 million yuan [8][9]. - The potassium chloride business saw an increase in revenue to 1.399 billion yuan, a 24.60% rise year-on-year, with an average selling price of 2,845 yuan per ton, reflecting a 25.57% increase [8][9]. Group 3: Future Projects - Cangge Mining plans to develop the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project, aiming for an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate, with the first phase targeting 50,000 tons [9]. - The company has made significant progress in obtaining the necessary permits for the Mami Cuo project, with plans to start construction in the third quarter of 2025 [9].

Group 1 - The South Korean stock market experienced significant volatility on July 31, with the composite index initially rising over 1% before sharply declining, erasing all gains and turning negative [1][2] - Automotive stocks, particularly Hyundai and Kia, saw drastic fluctuations, with declines of nearly 7% from peak to trough [1][2] - The U.S. President Trump announced a 15% tariff on South Korean goods as part of a new trade agreement, which also includes a commitment from South Korea to invest $350 billion in U.S. projects [2][3] Group 2 - The trade agreement between the U.S. and South Korea includes a provision for South Korea to purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas and other energy products [2][3] - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung stated that the agreement eliminates uncertainties in the export environment and allocates $1.5 billion for U.S.-Korea shipbuilding cooperation [3] - The agreement will reduce U.S. tariffs on South Korean automobiles to 15%, while South Korea will not further open its rice and beef markets to the U.S. [3] Group 3 - Trump announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products, leading to a significant drop in copper prices, with New York copper prices falling over 18% [4][5] - Major copper mining stocks, including Freeport-McMoRan, saw declines of nearly 10% following the tariff announcement [4] - The tariffs will apply to semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, while raw copper materials and scrap will not be affected by these tariffs [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. copper mining stocks have experienced significant declines following President Trump's decision to exclude refined copper from tariffs [1] - The U.S. Copper Index ETF fell by 19.31%, indicating a sharp downturn in the market [1] - Copper mining ETFs also saw a decline of 2.9%, reflecting broader industry challenges [1] Group 2 - Freeport-McMoRan's stock dropped by 9.46%, with a cumulative decline of 13% over the last five trading days [1] - Hudbay Minerals experienced a 7% decrease in stock value [1] - Southern Copper Corporation's shares fell by 6.33%, contributing to the overall negative sentiment in the sector [1]