Group 1 - UBS research indicates that the global aluminum market may continue to experience supply tightness, benefiting Chinese companies, and has reiterated a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), raising the target price from HKD 28 to HKD 38.6 [1] - UBS forecasts a global primary aluminum demand growth rate of 4% for 2026/27, while supply growth is expected to be only 1-2%, potentially leading to a market shortage and a decline in visible inventories, which should support rising aluminum prices [2] - China’s aluminum production capacity is strictly limited to 45.2 million tons per year, with current utilization exceeding 98%, nearing policy limits, and limited new capacity expected in the coming years [2] Group 2 - UBS has raised its aluminum price forecasts for China by 5% and 7% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, to CNY 22,000/ton and CNY 23,000/ton, while also increasing the London Metal Exchange aluminum price forecast by approximately 15% due to rising copper prices driving aluminum substitution demand [2] - As an industry leader, China Hongqiao is expected to continue benefiting from the constrained supply and favorable pricing environment, with UBS raising its net profit forecasts for the company by 11% for 2026 and 16% for 2027 based on higher aluminum price expectations [3]