Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metal, non-metal, and mining industry [6]. Core Insights - The weakening dollar and rising expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a recovery in risk assets, with silver leading the way. The probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 80%, benefiting precious metals and industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of silver, which has recently reached a new historical high due to futures market dynamics. The outlook for gold remains positive amid expectations of continued economic recession in the U.S. and attractive valuations in the A-share market for gold stocks [4]. - Industrial metal prices have strengthened, driven by enhanced rate cut expectations, with copper and aluminum showing significant price increases [4]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights that the weakening dollar and the anticipated rate cuts are driving precious metals, particularly silver, to new highs. The analysis suggests that the macroeconomic environment and trading structures favor silver's continued rise [4]. - For gold, the report maintains a bullish stance, predicting that if gold prices break previous highs, the sector will see significant recovery in valuations. The report recommends focusing on specific stocks such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining [4]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that the enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts are likely to improve the short-term outlook for copper and aluminum. Recent price movements include a 3.7% increase in LME copper and a 2% increase in LME aluminum [4][21]. - The report also discusses the supply dynamics, indicating that copper and aluminum inventories have shown mixed trends, with copper inventories increasing while aluminum inventories have decreased [4][36]. Energy and Minor Metals - The report identifies 2026 as a pivotal year for lithium, with supply and demand dynamics expected to shift positively. The recovery in lithium prices is anticipated as production constraints and rising demand from electric vehicles and energy storage continue [4]. - Strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten are highlighted for their potential value appreciation, particularly in light of government policies affecting supply and ongoing demand recovery [4]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the metal materials and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 3.16% increase compared to a 1.40% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index over the past week [12][15].

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-11-30 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 收盘点位 | | 7396.64 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 7829.42 | | 52 | 周最低 | 4280.14 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070002 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《2026 年铜行业展望： 流动性叠加供 需，重视有色的资源属性》 - 2025.11.26 有色金属行业报告 （2025.11.24-2025.11.28） 白银突破上行，看好贵金属表现 l 投资要点 贵金属：白银突破上行，继续看好贵金属表现。贵金属本周价格 迎来上行，comex 黄金上涨 4.77%，comex 白银上涨 14.95%。本周由 于 CM ...

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 黄金：震荡回升 白银：突破新高，观点兑现 02 03 铜：多重利好驱动，价格上涨 铝：21500关口形成支撑，关注年末去库幅度 氧化铝：重心继续下移，基本面仍承压 04 铸造铝合金：订单相对饱满，成本高位，价格存在韧性 05 锌：供应减产，消费持稳，价格下方仍有支撑 06 铅：供应承压，但需求下滑，价格震荡 07 08 锡：供给再出扰动，锡价突破30万关口 铂金：受白银牵动走高 钯金：低幅跟随上涨 Special re ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 有色金属 降息预期升温叠加逼仓，白银迎来历史性突破 贵金属：降息预期升温叠加逼仓，白银迎来历史性突破。市场进一步押注 12 月降息，根据 CME fedwatch，降息概率由一周前的 71%上升至 86.4%。周内俄乌和谈再度受阻，缓解了 贵金属市场此前的担忧。此前，美国和乌克兰 11 月 23 日在瑞士日内瓦举行会谈，将美方就 结束乌克兰危机所提 28 点新计划修改并缩减为 19 点，有关领土划分、乌克兰能否加入欧盟 和北约以及对乌安全保障等议题被搁置。俄罗斯总统普京表示，只有在乌克兰从其声称属于 自己的俄罗斯领土上撤军的情况下，才能宣布停火。白银方面，白银方面，由于持续的库存 流出，上期所白银库存 11 月 30 日降到 559 吨，较 10 月 8 日下滑 633 吨，极低的库存水平 引发了白银逼仓风险，周五银价再创历史新高。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛达资源、万国黄金 集团、中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：CSPT 达成减产协议，铜冶炼反内卷逐步深化。①宏观方面：周内宏 ...

有色分属 2025 年 11 月 30 日 波音 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 降息预期回升推动金属价格上行, 板块高景气趋势不变 金属&新材料行业周报 20251124-20251128 本期投资提示: un 寿研究报 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 据 ifind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 1.40%，深证成指上涨 3.56%，沪深 300 上涨 1.64%，有色金属 (申万) 指数上涨 3.37%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.73 个百分点; 2025 年有色金属（申万）指数上涨 71.30%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 56. ...

行 华福证券 有色金属 2025 年 11 月 30 日 业 研 究 有色金属 美联储降息预期升温，白银价格刷新历史新高 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：近期，随着市场对美联储在 12 月降息预期明显升温，美元阶段性 走弱，地缘局势在乌克兰及中东多点升温，避险情绪与利率预期在全球资 产定价中的权重同步提升。当前黄金走势正处于"宏观利好"与"风险偏 好回升"的拉锯之中。虽然地缘政治缓和与风险资产回暖抑制了传统避险 资金流入，但美联储转向宽松的确定性正在重塑资产定价逻辑。9 月非农 就业岗位新增 11.9 万个，为预测值的两倍多，8 月数据被大幅下修至-4 万 个，失业率维持在 4.4%，为 2021 年末以来最高水平。其他劳动力及制造 业数据显示经济活动放缓但未崩溃，11 月地区工厂订单及出货量回落至收 缩区间。密歇根大学 11 月消费者信心指数初值从 50.3 小幅上修至 51，但 较前一月的 53.6 有所下滑，且仍接近 2022 年 6 月创下的历史低点。通胀 预期小幅回落，一年期通胀预期从初值 4.7%降至 4.5%，五年期通胀预期从 3.6%降至 3.4%。COMEX 白银本周大涨 15% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a high level of industry prosperity [1]. Core Views - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to drive metal prices upward, with a sustained high prosperity trend in the sector [1]. - The report highlights significant price increases in various metals, with precious metals showing a notable rise due to changing monetary policies and increased demand [2][9]. - The report suggests that the valuation of precious metals is at the lower end of historical averages, indicating potential for recovery [2]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.56%, and the non-ferrous metals index outperformed the CSI 300 by 1.73 percentage points [3]. - Precious metals saw a weekly increase of 4.86%, with aluminum up by 2.46%, and energy metals rising by 0.91% [9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals experienced price fluctuations, with LME copper prices increasing by 3.82% and COMEX gold prices rising by 4.77% [2][14]. - Lithium prices also saw an increase, with battery-grade lithium carbonate up by 0.54% [2][18]. Supply and Demand Analysis - For copper, the report notes a decrease in domestic social inventory by 2.1 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [2][32]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing increased demand, with downstream processing enterprises' operating rates rising to 62.30% [2][52]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the industry, with Zijin Mining at 28.58 CNY per share and a PE ratio of 36 [19]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold at 36.46 CNY per share with a PE of 72, and Huayou Cobalt at 61.83 CNY per share with a PE of 35 [19].

2025 年 11 月 30 日 有色金属 金属价格加速上涨，重视板块业绩弹性 本周后半周，贵金属（白银、黄金）、工业金属（铜、锡、铝）、稀 土等商品价格加速上涨，主要是宏微观共振的结果。宏观层面，据芝 商所 FedWatch 工具数据，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率已达 86.4%，全球流动性问题解决，风险偏好回升。微观层面，白银、铜、 锡、稀土等品种均出现了不同程度的利好因素，推动价格进一步上 涨。持续看好金银铜铝锡稀土锑锂钴钽铀等金属，价格仍有上涨空 间，重视股票端估值修复。 行业周报 证券研究报告 | 投资评级 | 领先大市-A | | --- | --- | | | 维持评级 | | 首选股票 | 目标价（元） 评级 | 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4223.9、56.4 美元/盎司,环比分别 +3.54%、+6.49%。美联储理事沃勒表示支持美联储在 12 月会议上再 次降息，主要考虑到对劳动力市场以及招聘大幅放缓的担忧，并且并 不担心通胀及通胀预期的上升。美联储褐皮书显示，政府停摆和 AI 的应用导致了就业市场的疲软。市场对美联储 12 月降息预期明显升 温，金银价格 ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating high levels of market activity and potential for price increases [12][14][36]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.69% to $11,175.50 per ton on LME, with a notable decrease in copper inventory across major regions, indicating a tightening supply [12][21]. - Aluminum prices rose by 2.03% to $2,865.00 per ton on LME, with a decrease in domestic inventory and an increase in production rates, suggesting a recovering demand [13][18]. - Gold prices surged by 4.77% to $4,256.4 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and increased holdings in gold ETFs, reflecting strong market sentiment [14][30]. - The rare earth sector shows a bullish trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rising by 3.43%, supported by tightening supply and favorable export conditions [37][36]. - Antimony prices increased by 2.90%, bolstered by the suspension of export controls by the Ministry of Commerce, enhancing market confidence [38]. - Tin prices rose by 3.04%, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo and effective measures against smuggling in Indonesia [39]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.69% to $11,175.50 per ton, with a decrease in national copper inventory to 173,500 tons, reflecting a supply contraction [12][21]. - The copper processing fee index dropped to -$42.75 per ton, indicating pressure on the supply side [12]. - The copper wire and cable industry shows a mixed performance, with operating rates at 66.89%, reflecting a decline in year-on-year demand [12][21]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 2.03% to $2,865.00 per ton, with domestic inventory decreasing to 596,000 tons [13][18]. - The operating rate for aluminum processing increased by 0.3% to 62.3%, indicating a recovery in demand [13][18]. - The cost of prebaked anodes is expected to rise by over 400 yuan per ton, reflecting improved supply-demand dynamics [13]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 4.77% to $4,256.4 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and increased ETF holdings [14][30]. - The market remains strong, with expectations for continued price support unless a liquidity crisis occurs [14]. Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 3.43%, with expectations of supply tightening due to policy changes and raw material shortages [37]. - The export volume of magnetic materials increased by 16% year-on-year, indicating strong demand [37]. Antimony - Antimony prices increased by 2.90%, supported by the suspension of export controls, which boosted market confidence [38]. - Global supply is expected to decline due to reduced production from overseas mines, maintaining upward price pressure [38]. Tin - Tin prices rose by 3.04%, driven by supply constraints from geopolitical tensions in Africa and effective anti-smuggling measures in Indonesia [39]. - The market outlook remains positive, with expectations for sustained demand growth [39]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 4.04% to 92,800 yuan per ton, with production levels showing a slight increase [63]. - The demand for lithium remains strong, driven by growth in the battery and energy storage markets [63]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased by 1.6% to 403,000 yuan per ton, with supply constraints expected to support future price increases [64]. - The market is characterized by a "price without market" scenario, indicating a need for demand recovery [64].

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 铜冶炼利润周期有望见底，铜价或突破上行 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/11/24-2025/11/28） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：铜冶炼利润周期有望见底，铜价或突破上行。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +2.66%/+2.07%/+5.64%。考虑到持续低迷的铜精矿加工费，同时落实好国家反内卷相关 政策要求，中国铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）成员企业近日达 ...