gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年10月15日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价进一步下行,布伦特12合约跌1.75%。中美贸易博弈悬而未决令市场仍处避险倾向, 昨日发布的IEA10月报将年内需求增速小幅下调3万桶/日，但将今明两年供应增速均上调30万桶/ 日，市场供需盈余放大的预期进一步对油市构成压力。原油中期偏空思路不变，关注月末APAG会议 期间中美会谈对风险情绪的摇摆。 【贵金属】 隔夜金银在历史高位波动剧烈。中美贸易进展有待观察，美国政府停摆谈判僵局加剧市场不确定 性,鲍威尔讲话称未来几个月缩表或接近尾声。贵金属中长期上行逻辑稳固,重心抬升趋势将会延 续。短期金银涨速过快,盘面超买迹象明显,波动风险较大,观望为主。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价走低，脱离盘中低点。鲍威尔表示与9月相比，美国通胀与就业前景变动不大,更关注 劳动力市场走弱。市场预计本月联储将继续降息。今日关注国内现铜调价，昨报85990元，沪粤延 续升水。延续前期期权组合策略。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。国庆至今铝市累碎处于往年中性水平，主要地区有恢复去库迹象。 淡季市场表 观消费同比基本持平,需求具备韧性但缺 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-10-15 关税担忧仍在，基本金属上方高度受限 有⾊与新材料团队 有⾊观点：关税担忧仍在，基本⾦属上⽅⾼度受限 交易逻辑：特朗普重提对华关税威胁，投资者在周五夜盘一度出现恐慌， 我们认为相比于4月对等关税，这次影响的范围相对窄一些，经历年初以 来反复炒作，边际负面影响在减弱；美联储10月底将继续降息，中国第二 十届中央委员会第四次全体会议将于10月20日至23日在北京召开，潜在增 量刺激政策预期仍在，这能部分对冲关税政策的负面影响，因此，我们认 为这次特朗普关税威胁有负面影响，但不宜过度负面解读。原料端延续偏 紧局面，国庆前后铜矿、锡矿和锌矿供应均有干扰；冶炼端本周产量环比 继续小幅回升。初端开工环比下滑；终端9月汽车销售增速进一步回落， 9-11月空调排产增速放缓，基本金属本周国内供需偏宽松，海外略宽松。 整体来看，中短期，废料和矿石偏紧背景下，冶炼端收缩风险偏大，供需 仍有望趋紧，这对基本金属价格有支撑，可继续谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸做多 机会，在铜铝比价重回4以上的背景下，可重点留意铝锭补涨机会；长 期，国内潜在增量刺激政 ...

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| 硅锰(SM601) 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 5920 3210 | 5738 3061 | 182 149 | 3.17% 4.87% | 57.80% 63.30% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 HRB40020mm: 上海 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 热卷 (HC2601) | 3290 | 3241 | 49 | 1.51% | 39.50% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | 铁矿石 (12601) | 835 | 782 | 53 | 6.80% | 44.50% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | | | 焦炭 (J2601) | 1603 | 1655 | -52 | -3.14% | 36.11% | 折算价:准一级冶金焦A13, S0.7,CSR60,MT7:日照港 | | | 焦煤 (JM2601) | 1206 | 1154 | 53 | 4.55% | 37.30% | 折算价: S1.3 G75主焦(蒙5) 沙河驿 | | | 有色系 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds rotating rapidly between high - and low - priced stocks, and market risk appetite has decreased. Although short - term indices face uncertainties due to concerns over Sino - US tariffs, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - In the bond market, short - term risk aversion due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes is conducive to bond market repair. However, the fourth - quarter bond market still needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation forces. Overall, it may maintain a volatile trend [8]. - For precious metals, although prices have fallen after a short - term sharp rise, it is still recommended to hold long positions. There is a possibility of a short - term correction in silver prices, but there is also room for further increase in the future [10]. - In the有色金属 market, the Sino - US trade situation is uncertain. Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some metals are expected to have limited downside, while others may face short - term fluctuations [12][13][14][15]. - In the black building materials market, Trump's new tariff remarks have disturbed the market, and short - term steel demand is weak. However, in the long - term, the overall trend is unchanged under a loosening macro - environment. The black sector may have a rebound opportunity after a short - term decline [35][38][46]. - In the energy and chemical market, most products are affected by factors such as Sino - US trade relations, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - environment. Different products have different price trends and trading strategies [54][59][61]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by trade relations, while others are affected by seasonal factors and consumption trends [81][85][88]. Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market News**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized expanding domestic demand; Shanghai released an action plan for the intelligent terminal industry; the central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan repurchase operation; JPMorgan Chase will provide up to $1.5 trillion in financing for key US industries [2]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence. Short - term indices face uncertainties due to Sino - US tariff concerns, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: Bond prices rose on Tuesday. The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and the Ministry of Commerce took counter - measures against South Korean companies. The central bank conducted a 91 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term risk aversion is conducive to bond market repair, but the fourth - quarter bond market still needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation forces. It may maintain a volatile trend [8]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices rose. Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks supported precious metal prices. COMEX silver inventory decreased, and the spread between COMEX silver and London silver narrowed [9][10]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions. The reference range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 921 - 980 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 10962 - 12300 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Sino - US trade relations affected copper prices. LME copper prices fell, and domestic copper prices also declined. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper warehouse receipts increased slightly [12]. - **Strategy**: Trump's tariff threat is uncertain. Fundamentals support copper prices, and short - term price decline may be limited. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 84000 - 85800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10450 - 10750 US dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Market sentiment weakened, and aluminum prices corrected. LME aluminum prices fell, and domestic aluminum prices also declined. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade relations are uncertain. The pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the downside space for aluminum prices is expected to be limited. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20700 - 20980 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2700 - 2780 US dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices fell. LME zinc prices declined, and domestic zinc prices also decreased. LME zinc inventory decreased, and domestic zinc social inventory increased slightly [16]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, domestic zinc production and consumption were normal. LME zinc registered warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. Short - term, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and risk volatility will increase [17][18]. Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices fell. LME lead prices declined, and domestic lead prices also decreased. LME lead inventory decreased, and domestic lead social inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Strategy**: Lead ore inventory increased slightly, and lead ingot factory inventory accumulated. After Trump's tariff threat, short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and risk volatility will increase [20]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated downward. Spot market transactions were average, and nickel ore and nickel iron prices were stable [21]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, Sino - US trade friction may drive down market sentiment, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the long - term, nickel prices are supported by US easing expectations and domestic policies. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider going long on dips [22]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices fell. Domestic tin warehouse receipts decreased, and tin concentrate prices also declined. Supply was tight, and demand was mixed [23][24]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, Sino - US trade friction may drive down market sentiment, but tin supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices may remain high and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: Carbonate lithium prices were stable. Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were unchanged [25]. - **Strategy**: After the sharp reduction of warehouse receipts, the market opened higher but then fell. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium 2601 contract is 71000 - 74500 yuan/ton [26]. Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Warehouse receipts increased [27]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [28]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Warehouse receipts decreased [29][30]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, social inventory accumulated, and terminal consumption was weak. The market is expected to be weak [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell slightly. Trading volume decreased, and warehouse receipts increased [32]. - **Strategy**: Market sentiment is unstable, and the delivery pressure on near - month contracts is large, so prices are under pressure [33]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Steel prices fell. Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined, and inventory increased [35]. - **Strategy**: Trump's tariff remarks have disturbed the market. Short - term steel demand is weak, but in the long - term, the overall trend is unchanged under a loosening macro - environment. Attention should be paid to policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [38]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Warehouse receipts increased [39]. - **Strategy**: Supply has a seasonal decline, and demand is relatively stable. Short - term, iron ore prices may fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the "Silver October" demand after the replenishment [40]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: Glass prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Inventory increased [41]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and prices are expected to be under pressure [42]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: Soda ash prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Inventory increased [43]. - **Strategy**: The domestic soda ash market is weak, and short - term prices are expected to continue to decline [44]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased [45]. - **Strategy**: The black sector may have a similar price trend to 2023. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Supply and demand are relatively stable [48]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, pay attention to end - of - option games. In the long - term, prices may increase due to reduced supply and increased cost support [49]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: Polysilicon prices rose. Futures prices increased, and spot prices remained unchanged. Supply and demand are under pressure [50]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, prices may be under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. Mid - term, the supply - demand situation may improve after November [51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices were weak. Market expectations were uncertain, and tire开工率 decreased [54][56]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, prices may fall for 1 - 3 days. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term. Consider partial hedging [58]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil prices fell. Related refined oil prices also declined. Port inventory data showed mixed trends [59]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [60]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply pressure is large, and demand is weak [61]. - **Strategy**: The current short - selling cost - effectiveness is not high. It is recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals may improve marginally [61]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [62][63]. - **Strategy**: It is currently in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply and demand are mixed [64]. - **Strategy**: Spot and futures prices are falling, and the basis is strengthening. Benzene prices may stop falling temporarily [65]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply is strong, and demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies as the supply - demand situation is expected to worsen in the fourth quarter [69]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply and demand are relatively stable [70]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see as the supply - demand situation is balanced, but the valuation needs to be improved [72]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Supply and demand are under pressure [73]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see as the market lacks a driving force, but the downside space is limited [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Supply and demand are mixed [75]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level as the cost - side support is weakening, and inventory is high [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Supply and demand are weak [77]. - **Strategy**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are under pressure due to high inventory and cost - side supply surplus [79]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices showed mixed trends. Secondary fattening enthusiasm is slowly increasing, and prices may rise slightly [81]. - **Strategy**: In the fourth quarter, supply pressure is large, but the risk before the Spring Festival has been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions and consider positive spreads after the spot stabilizes [82]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable. Supply was normal, and trading volume increased [83]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is recommended to be bearish on near - month contracts. Mid - term, there may be a rebound, and long - term, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybeans fell. Domestic soybean meal prices decreased, and inventory continued to decline [85]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, prices may fluctuate in a range due to supply - demand contradictions and trade concerns. Mid - term, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [87]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil export data increased, and domestic oil prices rebounded. Supply and demand are balanced, and there is an expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of next year [88]. - **Strategy**: Mid - term, it is recommended to buy on dips. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see due to weak market sentiment [89]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Sugar mills in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have started production [90]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the fourth quarter as there is an expectation of increased production [91]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton prices fluctuated. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Downstream开机率 was low, and inventory was relatively low [92]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, cotton prices are likely to fall due to weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors [93].

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2025年10月15日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | | | | 市场表现：以伦敦金计价的国际金价冲高回落，收于 | | | | 4141 | 美元/盎司。 | | | | | | | | 金 | | | | | | | | | 基本面：鲍威尔公开讲话认为前景没多大变化，但就业下行风险显著，市场解读为敞开美联储降息大门：美 | | | | | | | | | 属 | | | | | | | | | 联储理事鲍曼预计在年底前将有两次降息，当前更多风险在于就业；欧央行行长拉加德表示永远都不会说欧 | | | | | | | | | | | | 洲央行已经完成降息。国内黄金 | | | ETF | | 资金流入。COMEX | | 黄金库存 | 1233 | 吨，减少 | 2 | 吨；上期所黄金库存 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/10/15 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/09/30 20 2562 98779 26823 -295.06 8.95 50.0 54.0 -42.98 143400 9675 2025/10/09 20 2547 98779 29703 -968.44 -243.65 49.0 53.0 -24.90 139475 8425 2025/10/10 45 3197 109690 29964 -947.78 -158.86 49.0 53.0 -31.19 139400 8350 2025/10/13 100 2941 109690 32890 - - 49.0 53.0 - - - 2025/10/14 70 2786 109690 36295 - - 45.0 52.0 - - - 变化 -30 -155 0 3405 - - -4.0 -1.0 - - - 周度观点 本周五受突发消息影响，特朗 ...

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