Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum industry is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation, with adjustments in export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products [1] - Despite a favorable macroeconomic environment, the industry faces challenges due to declining demand and high aluminum prices, which are suppressing downstream consumption [6][11] - The report suggests that while short-term pressures exist, the long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 9, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $3,136.0 per ton, up $115.0 from the previous week, and the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is ¥24,330.0 per ton, up ¥1,405.0 [15][21] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is ¥24,060.0 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of ¥1,540.0 [21] 2. Production - In December 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum reached 3.781 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 144,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 197,000 tons [53] - The production of alumina in December 2025 was 7.520 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 80,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 181,000 tons [53] 3. Inventory - As of January 8, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 714,000 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The alumina inventory at alumina plants increased by 33,000 tons, indicating a continued accumulation trend [9] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2026 [5]