Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals industry, indicating an upward cycle despite liquidity disturbances [2][3]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve's indecisiveness regarding interest rate cuts and changing market sentiment towards AI narratives have led to fluctuations in base metal prices. However, the fundamentals for energy metals remain strong, with prices trending upwards [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Market sentiment is affected by volatility in risk assets and central banks reducing gold reserves. The Federal Reserve's mixed economic assessments and fluctuating expectations for a December rate cut dominate the market [5][7]. - Gold prices as of November 21: SHFE gold decreased by 3.36% to 926.94 CNY/g, while COMEX gold fell by 0.77% to 4062.80 USD/oz [7][25]. - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces to 7,409 million ounces as of the end of October, marking 12 consecutive months of growth [7]. 2. Copper - Copper prices are under pressure due to fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts. As of November 21, SHFE copper decreased by 1.43% to 85,660 CNY/ton, and LME copper fell by 0.69% to 10,777.5 USD/ton [10][22]. - The supply side is impacted by an accident in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand remains strong, particularly from AI data centers and power grids [10][22]. 3. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility due to macroeconomic expectations. As of November 21, SHFE aluminum decreased by 2.29% to 21,340 CNY/ton, and LME aluminum fell by 2.54% to 2,786 USD/ton [9][22]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remains stable, while overseas supply concerns persist. The processing operating rate is steady at 62% [9][22]. 4. Energy Metals - The lithium sector shows strong demand, with lithium prices trending upwards. As of last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,100 tons, up by 585 tons, while inventory decreased by 2,052 tons [11]. - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supply, while demand from the downstream sector is cautious [11]. 5. Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium have slightly increased before retreating, with no significant changes in the fundamentals. As of November 21, prices were 549,000 CNY/ton for praseodymium and neodymium, and 1,485,000 CNY/ton for dysprosium [12].

证券研究报告 2025年11月23日 有色金属 铝行业周报：美联储降息预期反复，铝价高位回落 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨(证券分析师) 王璇(证券分析师) S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -14% 5% 23% 41% 59% 78% 2024/11 2025/02 2025/05 2025/08 2025/11 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：海外电解铝供应担忧，铝价突破22000元/吨（推荐）*有色金 属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-11-16 《铝行业周报：海外缺电，引发电解铝供应端担忧（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-11-10 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓和，美联储延续降息（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2025-11-02 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | -2.3% | 20.7% | 51.5% | | 沪深300 | -3.3% | 3.9% | 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, due to the unclear prospect of a December interest rate cut, the prices will likely continue to fluctuate and adjust, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range [3]. - **Copper**: The intraday procurement and sales sentiment has increased, and the spot price has risen while the premium has weakened. The copper price faces pressure at 86,500 - 86,600. Given the weak impact of the unemployment data on the December interest rate cut expectation and the dollar index remaining above 100, the copper price will likely fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum will maintain a moderately strong long - term trend. In the short - term, weak fundamentals and a lower probability of a December interest rate cut have led to profit - taking by previous funds. It will likely consolidate with an overall higher price center. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental restrictions and short - covering, but it is still in an oversupply situation. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics to Shanghai aluminum and strong downside support [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of an interest rate cut has cooled. In terms of fundamentals, the smelting end is competing for ore, resulting in a significant decline in November TC. The smelting end's willingness to reduce or halt production has increased in November. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Currently, there are large differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [59]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has continued to decline, breaking below 900 and still falling due to weak downstream demand. Under the situation of a significant collapse in costs, the downside space for nickel and stainless steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless steel spot has high shipment pressure, and downstream purchasing willingness is low. Attention should be paid to the demand trend and Indonesian policy support expectations [75]. - **Tin**: Fundamentally, there is some resumption of production in Yunnan, but due to the lower - than - expected resumption of production in Wa State, the import of concentrate has sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. In the short - term, it is difficult to solve the raw material problem on the supply side, and Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level shock, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [88]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: This week, lithium carbonate production and inventory showed the characteristic of "increasing production and reducing inventory", but the inventory reduction process has significantly slowed down. High prices have weakened downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, suppressing price increases. Technically, the futures price faces a key pressure level of 100,000 yuan, with limited short - term upward momentum and significant callback risks [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, considering supply - demand and technical factors, the price has strong downside support and limited downward space. For polysilicon, policy - driven short - term stimulation coexists with a weak fundamental situation, and the price increase is limited due to insufficient demand support [115]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Medium - to long - term upward trend; short - term fluctuation and adjustment with possible range narrowing [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, including price trends, spreads, and relationships with other factors such as the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9][12]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Likely to fluctuate around 86,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai copper main contract is at 85,660 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.55% [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and premiums are presented. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is at 85,815 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.72% [23]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are given. The current copper import profit and loss is - 488.26 yuan/ton, with a daily change rate of 82.21% [28]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are provided. The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 49,790 tons, with a daily decline of 9.44% [33]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term with a higher price center; alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London aluminum and alumina futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai aluminum main contract is at 21,340 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.88% [39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic aluminum spot prices, premiums, and spreads are presented. For example, the East China aluminum price is at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a daily change rate of 9.09% [46]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London aluminum and alumina warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts are 69,283 tons, with a daily decline of 0.18% [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Uncertainty exists due to cooling interest rate cut expectations and supply - side issues. Observe export and macro factors and the bottom space at the end of the month [59]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London zinc futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai zinc main contract is at 22,395 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.07% [60]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic and international zinc spot prices and premiums are presented. For example, the SMM 0 zinc average price is at 22,440 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04% [68]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London zinc warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 72,897 tons, with a daily decline of 1.05% [72]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Outlook**: Ferronickel prices are falling, and the downside space for nickel and stainless steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless steel has high shipment pressure [75]. - **Futures and Related Data**: The latest prices, changes, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipt data of Shanghai and London nickel and stainless steel futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract is at 114,050 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1% [76]. - **Downstream Data**: Data on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins are presented, such as the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) and the profit margin of China's integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [80][83]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level shock, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [88]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai tin main contract is at 290,740 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.44% [89]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various tin spot prices are presented. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot is at 291,300 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07% [93]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London tin warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai tin warehouse receipts are 5,906 tons, with a daily decline of 1.42% [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: The "increasing production and reducing inventory" process has slowed down. High prices have suppressed downstream replenishment willingness. The futures price faces a key pressure level of 100,000 yuan, with limited short - term upward space [104]. - **Futures Data**: The latest closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided, along with data on spreads between different contracts [105][107]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily and weekly changes of various lithium - related spot prices are presented, such as the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price at 92,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1% [109]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate exchange inventory, including warehouse receipts, social inventory, smelter inventory, and downstream inventory, are provided [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: Industrial silicon has strong downside support and limited downward space. Polysilicon has limited upside space due to weak fundamentals [115]. - **Industrial Silicon Spot Data**: The latest prices of various industrial silicon products in different regions and their basis data are provided. For example, the East China 553 industrial silicon is at 9,550 yuan/ton [116]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are provided. For example, the industrial silicon main contract is at 8,960 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.27% [117]. - **Polysilicon and Related Product Data**: Price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products, as well as inventory and production data of the industry chain, are presented [125][136].

南方中证1000ETF（512100）基金经理为崔蕾。 11月21日，新疆众和跌5.12%，截至发稿，报7.78元/股，成交1.91亿元，换手率1.71%，总市值109.21亿 元。 资料显示，新疆众和股份有限公司位于新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市高新区喀什东路18号，成立日期 1996年2月13日，上市日期1996年2月15日，公司主营业务涉及精铝、电子铝箔、腐蚀箔、化成箔电子元 器件原料的生产、销售。铝及铝制品的生产、销售。主营业务收入构成为：合金产品39.49%，高纯铝 18.16%，电极箔14.49%，电子铝箔9.34%，铝制品9.05%，其他(补充)5.30%，其他4.17%。 从新疆众和十大流通股东角度 数据显示，南方基金旗下1只基金位居新疆众和十大流通股东。南方中证1000ETF（512100）三季度减 持6.66万股，持有股数771.05万股，占流通股的比例为0.55%。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约323.84万元。 南方中证1000ETF（512100）成立日期2016年9月29日，最新规模766.3亿。今年以来收益24.71%，同类 排名1906/4208；近一年收益18.97%，同类排名2143 ...

11月21日，神火股份盘中下跌2.05%，截至09:35，报24.40元/股，成交7595.28万元，换手率0.14%，总 市值548.76亿元。 截至11月10日，神火股份股东户数6.81万，较上期增加4.13%；人均流通股33003股，较上期减少 3.96%。2025年1月-9月，神火股份实现营业收入310.05亿元，同比增长9.50%；归母净利润34.90亿元， 同比减少1.38%。 分红方面，神火股份A股上市后累计派现94.22亿元。近三年，累计派现58.43亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，神火股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股7766.16万股，相比上期增加3860.67万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第七大流通股 东，持股2292.63万股，相比上期减少44.80万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1103.05万元，特大单买入452.00万元，占比5.95%，卖出1720.33万元， 占比22.65%；大单买入1956.62万元，占比25.76%，卖出1791.34万元，占比23.58%。 神火股份今年以来股价涨4 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 | 股指期货：A 股再受考验 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：消息扰动下，债市表现分化 4 | 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 21 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：利多带动有限 粕类继续承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价继续震荡 国内糖价震荡略涨 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 现货略有回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 9 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 棉价震荡为主 11 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水仍有压减空间 13 | | --- | | 双焦：现货价格高位回调，盘面偏弱运行 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需双弱，成本支撑区间震荡 15 | | 贵金属：美国非农信号不一 金银延续震荡 16 | | --- | | 铜：短期关注下方支撑 17 | | 氧化铝：实质性减产仍未兑现 关注仓单 ...

| 业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 | 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月21日 | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | | | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 品种 | | | | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9550 | 9450 | 100 | 1.06% | 墓差 (通室S15530章准) | 475 | 60 | 415 | 691.67% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9750 | 9800 | 50 | 0.51% | 元/吨 | 基差 (Sl4210基准) | -75 | -440 | 82.95% | 365 | | 新疆99硅 | 9000 | 8850 | 1.69% | 120 | 基差(新疆) | 725 | 260 | 465 | 178.85% | | | 月间价差 | 合约 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Mr. Ji Shujun from multiple positions within the company due to work changes will not affect the normal operation of the board of directors [1] Group 1 - Mr. Ji Shujun has submitted his resignation as the company's director, chairman, and head of the strategic committee and nomination committee [1] - His resignation is effective immediately upon delivery to the board and does not result in the board's membership falling below the legal minimum [1] - Mr. Ji Shujun did not hold any shares in the company [1]

日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 有色金属研究团队 行业 铝日报 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 每日报告 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 一、行情回顾与操作建议 宏观氛围转暖风险资产恐慌情绪有所缓解，19 日铝价暂止跌窄幅运行，主力 2601 报收于 21570，较上日上涨 0.12%。现货上，绝对价小幅回升，但整体水平 低于前期，采购情绪回暖，下游补货意愿回升，持货方尝试挺升贴水，日内华东 贴水-20，中原贴水-120，华南贴水-145。进口窗口关闭，现货进口亏损-1600 元 /吨左右。国产矿相对坚挺，几内亚矿价低位徘徊，氧化铝运行产能保持高位，过 剩压力显著，但随着月均价下行北 ...

行 业 研 究 / 有 色 金 属 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报 铜铝需求好转，关注锑市改善 2025 年 11 月 20 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） -10% 6% 22% 38% 54% 70% 2024/11 2025/5 2025/11 有色金属 沪深300 相关研究 《铜铝趋势不改，供需结构或持续改善》 2025.11.10 《金铜趋势不改，铝供需有望持续改善》 2025.11.04 《美联储降息或持续，关注有色金属金融 属性催化》 2025.10.27 《美联储或停止缩表在即，关注行业金融 属性催化》 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：李淼 证书编号：S1160524120006 证券分析师：孟宪博 证书编号：S1160525030003 证券分析师：张恒浩 证书编号：S1160525090001 相对指数表现 钢铁：西芒杜正式投产，钢厂盈利有望逐渐改善。当周 SHFE 螺纹钢/SHFE 热 卷收于 3053、3256 元/吨，周环比+0.6%/ +0.3%。当周五大钢材品种供应 834.38 万吨，周环比-22.36 万吨，总库存录得 1477.34 万 ...