证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 铜冶炼利润周期有望见底，铜价或突破上行 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/11/24-2025/11/28） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：铜冶炼利润周期有望见底，铜价或突破上行。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +2.66%/+2.07%/+5.64%。考虑到持续低迷的铜精矿加工费，同时落实好国家反内卷相关 政策要求，中国铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）成员企业近日达 ...

在过去的近一个月的时间里，全球的宏观运行呈现以下一些特征： 第一， 美元流动性出现了明显的反复，虽然美联储降息和缩表不断落地，但美联储尝 试释放中性信号而避免释放过于鸽派的信息，其对于美债收益率曲线和美元汇 率稳定的诉求较为强烈，这引发了美元资产的回落并把紧张向非美地区传导； 第二，进入到 10 月份之后，伴随美元流动性的反复而出现的宏观现象是经贸 和地缘局势的扰动，在经贸问题上，特朗普的 TACO 交易再现，中美领导人的 APEC 会议上的会晤还是平稳落地了，但特朗普访华时间延后。虽然中东的局 势没有进一步恶化，但是在俄乌仍然焦灼的背景下，地缘风险又有向亚洲蔓延 的特征；第三，面对外部的不确定性，在美联储降息之际，国内的经济政策亦 有一些动作，比如央行宣布恢复国债的购买，但整体来看经济政策的变动不大。 商业银行准备金的大幅回落，从而引发了流动性的压力 升，这倒逼了美联储停止缩表以及美国政府结束停摆 相应大类资产运行则呈现出以下几个方面的特征： 第一，在此前"复苏" 交易和"衰退"交易并存在定价体系下，进入到 10 月份之后随着美元流动性 的压力再现，大类资产的定价整体朝着避险甚至"滞胀"交易进行了回摆，商 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/11/26 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenhua Co., Ltd. has shown a significant stock price increase of 49.97% year-to-date, with a recent trading performance indicating mixed trends in the short term [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shenhua Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 31.005 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.50%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.38% to 3.49 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 9.422 billion yuan in dividends, with 5.843 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of November 20, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shenhua Co., Ltd. reached 71,700, an increase of 5.29% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 5.02% to 31,346 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fourth largest, holding 77.6616 million shares, which is an increase of 38.6067 million shares from the previous period [3]. Market Activity - On November 28, 2025, Shenhua Co., Ltd.'s stock price rose by 2.07% to 24.60 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 303 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.55%. The total market capitalization reached 55.326 billion yuan [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 2.2425 million yuan, with large orders showing a buy of 61.0525 million yuan and a sell of 52.6108 million yuan [1].

份额方面，有色50ETF近1周份额增长9400.00万份，实现显著增长。（数据来源：Wind） 截至2025年11月27日 09:46，中证细分有色金属产业主题指数(000811)强势上涨1.33%，成分股锡业股份(000960)上涨3.60%，中孚实业(600595)上涨2.99%， 天山铝业(002532)上涨2.99%，兴业银锡(000426)，神火股份(000933)等个股跟涨。有色50ETF(159652)上涨1.37%，最新价报1.48元。拉长时间看，截至2025 年11月26日，有色50ETF近3月累计上涨19.69%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 流动性方面，有色50ETF盘中换手0.58%，成交1707.62万元。拉长时间看，截至11月26日，有色50ETF近1周日均成交1.62亿元。 值得一提的是，有色50ETF(159652)盘中再获资金净申购。 规模方面，有色50ETF近3月规模增长20.85亿元，实现显著增长。（数据来源：Wind） 资金流入方面，有色50ETF最新资金净流入879.11万元。拉长时间看，近5个交易日内，合计"吸金"8122.74万元，近10日净流入 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - The most significant growth in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this year is observed in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, with the A-share non-ferrous sector rising 75% since 2025, leading all industries [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other sectors, with Hong Kong's non-ferrous sector showing even greater gains than A-shares, particularly in core leaders within copper, gold, and aluminum [1][4]. - Specific stocks such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum have seen substantial increases, with Zijin's H-shares rising 123% and Luoyang Molybdenum's H-shares increasing 222% [4][6]. - The top five performing sectors in the market are all related to non-ferrous metals, indicating a strong trend in this industry [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand dynamics are crucial, with significant supply constraints in key metals like copper due to mining accidents and geopolitical risks, leading to a tight supply situation expected to persist into 2025 [9][10]. - The demand for non-ferrous metals is driven by the growth of the global economy, technological advancements, and the increasing need for resources in industries such as electric vehicles and renewable energy [10][11]. - Projections indicate a substantial copper deficit by 2030, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 400,000 tons, highlighting the ongoing supply challenges [11][12]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to remain in a favorable economic cycle for the next few years, supported by a tight supply-demand balance [13][14]. - The U.S. has recognized the importance of non-ferrous metals for its energy transition and high-end manufacturing, leading to increased domestic production efforts and strategic resource accumulation [13][14]. - The overall trend suggests that non-ferrous metal resources will continue to see both volume and price increases in the future [14][27]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment focus should be on leading companies with strong resource reserves, scale, and integrated supply chains, such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao [26][27]. - Companies involved in lithium and cobalt, which are closely tied to battery production, as well as those benefiting from the demand for copper and aluminum in energy storage and AI infrastructure, are also recommended for investment [26][27]. - The market sentiment remains positive for the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant inflows of capital despite recent market adjustments [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum has officially powered on the first batch of electrolytic cells for its 1.4 million tons green low-carbon efficiency enhancement project, aiming to improve the green and low-carbon level of its electrolytic aluminum production [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project utilizes fully graphitized cathode carbon blocks and new energy-saving cathode structure technology [1] - Upon completion, the company's electrolytic aluminum production capacity will reach the approved capacity of 1.4 million tons per year [1] - The comprehensive AC power consumption of aluminum liquid will be at an industry-leading level [1] Group 2: Energy and Competitive Advantage - The project will rely on external green electricity as an energy guarantee [1] - Once fully completed, the proportion of green electricity in the company's energy mix will further increase [1] - This enhancement will strengthen the company's competitive advantage in electricity costs and accelerate the green transformation of its electrolytic aluminum main business [1]

Industry Overview and Price Trends - The steel industry is entering a demand off-season, leading to increasing fundamental pressure on steel prices, which are expected to fluctuate at low levels in the short term [2] - Copper supply remains tight due to accidents at major overseas mines, providing support for copper prices. China's significant waste copper imports may face constraints if the EU restricts exports, potentially tightening domestic copper supply next year [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to weak demand in the domestic off-season and a lack of support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations [2] - Gold prices face upward pressure due to better-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data and diverging opinions among Federal Reserve officials [2] - The lithium industry shows positive fundamentals, with adjustments to trading rules for lithium carbonate contracts aimed at curbing speculative behavior, leading to increased price volatility in the short term [2] - Rare earth prices are expected to fluctuate without significant improvement in downstream demand [2] Weekly Strategy - For the steel industry, the implementation of steady growth policies is expected to improve the competitive landscape and enhance profitability, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase [3] - The copper industry is anticipated to benefit from tightening global supply due to accidents at major mines, while demand is expected to rise in key sectors such as electric power grids and new energy vehicles [3] - In the aluminum sector, the release of new alumina project capacities is expected to keep alumina prices low, while demand from new energy vehicles and high-voltage power grids may support aluminum prices [4] - Gold prices will be influenced by U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions, with long-term factors such as central bank gold purchases enhancing gold's attractiveness [4] - The rare earth industry is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to upgraded export controls, with strategic value in resources and advancements in robotics and new energy sectors driving future demand [4] - The cobalt market is projected to remain tight due to constrained supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand from new energy vehicles and consumer electronics is expected to support prices [5] Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Huayou Cobalt (603799), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) receiving "overweight" ratings [6]

Group 1 - Aolide plans to raise no more than 300 million yuan through a simplified procedure for issuing shares to specific targets, with net proceeds allocated to the production base project for OLED display core materials and to supplement working capital [1] - Wanbang's subsidiary has obtained a 10-year exclusive agency for sildenafil oral suspension, which is suitable for patients with swallowing difficulties [2] - Titan Technology and its affiliate plan to jointly invest in increasing capital for its subsidiary, Micro Detection, raising its registered capital from 10 million yuan to 50 million yuan [3] Group 2 - Jindike will not issue new batches of quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine this year, having produced approximately 1.56 million doses [4] - Aladdin intends to purchase 35% equity of Youke for 61.25 million yuan, funded by its own or raised capital [5] - Gujia Home's application for a private placement of A-shares has been approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [7] Group 3 - Honghe Technology's application for a private placement of A-shares has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [9] - Guangdian Yuntong has won contracts totaling 308 million yuan for the construction of an artificial intelligence application pilot base [10] - Shanghai Mechanical plans to repurchase B-shares worth no more than 278 million yuan [11] Group 4 - Weiling Co. is planning a change of control, with shares representing 7.76% of the total being transferred [14] - Jiugang Hongxing intends to invest 200 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary focusing on high-quality special steel materials [16] - Zhongjian Technology has submitted an application for H-share listing [17] Group 5 - Sainuo Medical has received registration approval for its coronary product in Pakistan [18] - Huafeng Aluminum plans to acquire 100% equity of Huafeng Puen for 100 million yuan [20] - Fuda Co. intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an investment of 30 million yuan [22] Group 6 - Su Yan Jingshen's application for a private placement of shares has been approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [24] - Zhongchuang Co. has set the inquiry transfer price at 25.75 yuan per share [25] - Jinpu Garden has had a lawsuit involving 26.557 million yuan accepted by the court [29] Group 7 - ICBC has approved the appointment of Zhao Guid as vice president [30] - Betta Pharmaceuticals has had its drug registration application for ensartinib accepted [32] - Times New Materials plans to invest 6 million euros to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Serbia [34] Group 8 - China State Construction has appointed Chen Yong as vice president [36] - Dayang Electric plans to invest 10 million yuan to establish an industrial fund [38] - Advanced Digital has appointed Liu Zhigang as deputy general manager [39] Group 9 - Tianqi Co. plans to transfer 7% equity of Youqi Intelligent for 130 million yuan [40] - Xinguo has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing [42] - Jinhongshun's shareholder has terminated a share reduction plan [43] Group 10 - Wanrun Co.'s actual controller plans to increase shareholding between 365 million yuan and 730 million yuan [44] - Suzhou High-tech plans to sell 47% equity of its medical device subsidiary for 604 million yuan [45] - Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary has signed a product supply agreement with Yiwei Lithium Energy for approximately 127,800 tons of materials [47] Group 11 - China Communications has won 10 important projects totaling approximately 2.539 billion yuan [49] - Nopushin plans to raise no more than 1.45 billion yuan through a private placement [50] - Yun Aluminum plans to acquire minority stakes in three subsidiaries for a total of 2.267 billion yuan [51] Group 12 - Xiamen Tungsten plans to establish a 500 million yuan merger fund with multiple parties [52] - Aotewei has signed a contract worth approximately 700 million yuan [54] - Hemai Co.'s shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% [56]