| 9 年 | ■度策略参考 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2026/01 | 财究院:李潘年 | 给格雷: F0251V2 | | | | | | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 品神 | 随着政策给市场的投机情绪"降温"。提高融资资金比例、中央 | 汇金大量卖出宽基指数ETF,股指震荡调整。策略上,政策的调控 | | | 設指 | 在于主张股指"慢牛"而非打压市场,短期的震荡调整空间预计 | 宏观金融 | 不大,长线多头可择机布局。 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | 震荡 | 国债 | 日本央行利率决策。 | 下游需求相对承压,而随着美国暂缓对关键矿产征税,短期抢铜 | | | | 震荡 | 担忧有所缓解,铜价趋于高位震荡运行。 | 近期产业驱动有限,而宏观情绪有所转弱,铝价高位回落。 | 農汤 | | | | | 国内氧化铝供强需弱,产业面偏弱、价格承压,但当前价格基本 | 氧化铝 | 震荡。 | 处于成本线附近,预计价格震荡运行。 | ...

1月20日晚，中孚实业发布2025年年度业绩预增公告称，公司预计2025年归母净利润15.5亿元至17亿 元，同比增长120.27%-141.59%；扣非净利润预计15.2亿元至16.7亿元，同比增长156.32%-181.61%。 对于业绩增长的主要原因，中孚实业表示，公司以"绿色化、数字化、智能化"为方向，持续开展降本增 盈和管理提升等相关工作。公司本期业绩增长主要系电解铝业务成本下降及销售价格上涨影响。（王 珞） 转自：中国证券报·中证网 ...

来源：中国能源网 华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：数据方面，美国12月CPI同比2.7%，前值2.7%，预期美国11月零 售销售环比0.6%，前值-0.1%，预期11月PPI同比3%，前值2.7%，预期2.7%。美国1月10首次申请失业救 济人数19.8万人，前值20.8万人，预期万人。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 贵金属：1 上行动力较足 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4611.05美元/盎司，环比9日+117.20美元/盎司，涨幅为 90.80美元/盎司，环比1月9日+12.66 铜、铝：铜铝高位盘整，下游需求有所修复 国内宏观：中国12月进口同比(按美元计)前值月出口同比(按美元计)前值5.9%。 铜：价格方面，本周LME铜收盘价12925美元/吨，环比日-65美元/吨，跌幅为-0.50%。SHFE铜收盘价 100590环比1月9日-620元/吨，跌幅为-0.61%。库存方面，LME为143575吨（环比1月9日+4600吨，同 比-116675COMEX库存为542914吨（环比1月9日+24915+447415吨）；SHFE库存为213515吨（环比1月9 吨）。2026年1月15日，SMM统计 ...

华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：数据方面，美国12月CPI同比2.7%，前值2.7%，预期美国11月零 售销售环比0.6%，前值-0.1%，预期11月PPI同比3%，前值2.7%，预期2.7%。美国1月10首次申请失业救 济人数19.8万人，前值20.8万人，预期万人。 以下为研究报告摘要： 数据方面，美国12月CPI同比2.7%，前值2.7%，预期美国11月零售销售环比0.6%，前值-0.1%，预期11 月PPI同比3%，前值2.7%，预期2.7%。美国1月10首次申请失业救济人数19.8万人，前值20.8万人，预期 万人。 从CME Fedwatch工具来看，1月美联储进一步降息25BP率为95.0%。 投资要点 贵金属：1 上行动力较足 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4611.05美元/盎司，环比9日+117.20美元/盎司，涨幅为 90.80美元/盎司，环比1月9日+12.66 16.20%。 总结而言，本周美国重磅数据较少，近期关注美联储会议情况，目前看对于1 金上行动力较足。 铜、铝：铜铝高位盘整，下游需求有所修复 国内宏观：中国12月进口同比(按美元计)前值月出口同比(按美元计)前值5.9%。 ...

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智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研究报告称，维持2026年美国天然气基本面偏紧的判断，预期 NYMEX 气价淡季波动区间上移至4-5美元/百万英热；欧洲虽经历暖冬，但天然气库存处于低位，补库 需求将对全球LNG市场形成支撑。全球LNG供应放量大背景下，维持欧洲气价中枢下移的趋势判断， 预计2026年淡季荷兰TTF气价中枢下移至9-10美元/百万英热。此外，需关注夏季飓风对墨西哥湾石油生 产与炼化的潜在冲击。 中金公司表示，2025年12月，全球迎来新年时，拉尼娜气候已悄然完成第六次造访——过去六年中第五 次拉尼娜现象正式确立。尽管气象部门预计本次拉尼娜强度较弱、持续时间较短，但在大国竞争与资源 民族主义抬头的背景下，天气变化正在为商品定价注入更多不确定性。 全球大宗商品市场与气候波动的纠葛，始终是一部"自然与产业链"的博弈史。回溯过去十年，每一次极 端气候的发生，都以"供给扰动-价格异动-均衡重塑"的链条影响着大宗商品市场。如2015-2016年强厄尔 尼诺导致东南亚干旱棕榈油减产，棕油价格拉涨超50%；2020-2021年拉尼娜周期中，北美寒潮冲击页 岩油产能，WTI油价阶段性高位突破、巴西咖啡主产区霜冻更 ...

南山铝业公告称，公司分别于2025年12月22日和2026年1月9日通过回购股份议案，将以3亿-6亿元自有 资金，不超7.52元/股的价格，回购3989.36万-7978.72万股用于减少注册资本，回购期自2026年1月9日至 2027年1月8日。2026年1月20日，公司首次以集中竞价方式回购股份134.75万股，占总股本0.01%，支付 资金888.0025万元，成交价均为6.59元/股。 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Recently, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled, and the macro atmosphere has weakened marginally. The non - ferrous sector is adjusting at a high level. The Shanghai aluminum price is running around 24,000, with a significantly narrower fluctuation range. The downstream procurement sentiment has improved due to the falling aluminum price, but high prices still suppress consumption, and the spot premium is expected to be under pressure. The domestic northern bauxite is in the early stage of复产, and the production rhythm is expected to accelerate after the two sessions. The subsequent bauxite price may still have room to fall. The new domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are still ramping up production. The overseas Mozambique aluminum plant has stopped production, but it will remain at full - capacity operation in Q1. The short - term supply pressure has increased slightly but is limited. On the demand side, high aluminum prices still suppress the terminal, but the aluminum processing start - up rate has rebounded slightly week - on - week due to the approaching Spring Festival and finished - product stocking demand. Currently, the aluminum price is still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. With the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase accumulated from the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price has a downward adjustment demand [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestion - Macro environment: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled in January, and the market generally believes that there will be no interest - rate cut. The macro atmosphere has weakened marginally, and the non - ferrous sector is adjusting at a high level [8] - Aluminum price performance: On the 19th, the Shanghai aluminum price was running around 24,000, with a significantly narrower fluctuation range compared to the previous period [8] - Spot market: The downstream procurement sentiment has improved due to the falling aluminum price, but high prices still suppress consumption. The spot premium is expected to be under pressure. The East China discount is - 160, the Central China discount is - 290, and the South China discount is - 130 [8] - Supply side: The domestic northern bauxite is in the early stage of复产, and the production rhythm is expected to accelerate after the two sessions. Due to the compressed profits of alumina plants, the willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium is low, and the subsequent bauxite price may still have room to fall. The new domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are still ramping up production. The overseas Mozambique aluminum plant has stopped production, but it will remain at full - capacity operation in Q1. The short - term supply pressure has increased slightly but is limited. Although there are concerns about the shortage of power supply in Europe and the United States in the long term, it is not the dominant trading logic in the current market [8] - Demand side: High aluminum prices still suppress the terminal, but the aluminum processing start - up rate has rebounded slightly week - on - week due to the approaching Spring Festival and finished - product stocking demand [8] - Price trend: The aluminum price is still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. With the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase accumulated from the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price has a downward adjustment demand [8] Group 5: Industry News - "Aluminum replacing copper" in the air - conditioning industry: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, have jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. The cost of copper in a household air - conditioner accounts for more than half. The price difference between copper and aluminum is about three times. Some brand stores said they will launch aluminum household air - conditioner products as early as 2026, while others said they have no such plan [9] - Expansion of Lizhong Group: The second - phase 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels project of its Mexican factory has been initially put into production. The 3 - million - piece cast - spun aluminum alloy wheel production capacity of its third Thai aluminum alloy wheel factory is expected to be put into production next year. The high - performance aluminum alloy new material projects newly built in Chongqing, Huai'an, Changchun, Thailand, etc. will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year, which will improve the company's global production capacity layout and competitiveness [10] - Expansion of Nalco: The Indian state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support its integrated aluminum business expansion. It has awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the increased mining capacity, Nalco is expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina plant, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10]

有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业， 涵盖贵金属（避险）、战略金属（成长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把 握整个板块的贝塔行情。截至1月19日，有色ETF华宝（159876）最新规模16.26亿元，续创历史新高。 在全市场3只跟踪中证有色金属指数的ETF中，是规模最大的ETF。 每日经济新闻 1月20日，有色ETF华宝（159876）开盘一度涨超1%，后随大市回调，现跌2.22%。资金正逢跌加仓， 截至发稿，有色ETF华宝（159876）获资金实时净申购超3100万份，近5日已连续狂揽3.76亿元，近10 日更是连续狂揽6.44亿元，资金加仓有色呈现加速态势。 中国银河证券建议把握"AI飞跃+百年变局"共振下的有色金属超级周期。回顾历史，每一轮超级铜周期 都对应一段清晰而强大的宏观叙事，而本轮周期同时叠加了"AI科技革命"与"全球秩序重塑"两大长期逻 辑，其持续性和战略意义不亚于战后重建、我国对外开放等历史阶段。 有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进 度、"反内卷"政策 ...

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights various companies' recent announcements regarding their business activities, project investments, performance forecasts, and stock transactions. Group 1: Company Announcements - Nansheng Co., Ltd. reported that the revenue from its AI-related business is a small proportion of its overall revenue [1] - Aerospace Power stated that its main business does not involve commercial aerospace and it has no investments in commercial aerospace assets [1] - Jianghe Group won a bid for approximately 220 million yuan for the exterior facade subcontracting of the Xi'an Taikoo Li commercial complex [1] Group 2: Project Investments - Nanshan Aluminum plans to invest approximately 437 million USD to build a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in the Bintan Industrial Park, Indonesia [1][2] - Changyuan Power intends to increase capital in its wholly-owned subsidiary and invest in the construction of the Husi photovoltaic project [2] Group 3: Performance Forecasts - Hunan YN Energy expects a net profit growth of 93.75% to 135.87% year-on-year for 2025 [1][2] - Hao Shang Hao anticipates a net profit increase of 115.64% to 175.35% for 2025 [2] - Fule Anticipates a net profit growth of 81.67% to 127.08% for 2025 [2] - Yuanxiang New Materials expects a net profit increase of 76.27% to 107.37% for 2025 [2] Group 4: Stock Transactions - New Feng Ming announced that Dushan Energy plans to acquire a 35% stake in Dushan Port Development for 259 million yuan [1][2] - Aotai Bio's actual controller and chairman proposed a share buyback [1][2] - Meihua Medical's actual controller and concerted parties plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 2.4997% [1][2] Group 5: Other Developments - Huashi Technology plans to raise no more than 446 million yuan through a private placement to Hangzhou Juzhun [3] - Jianghua Microelectronics will change its actual controller to the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with stock resuming trading on January 20 [3]