有色金属 2026 年 1 月 25 日 有色金属周报 避险情绪发酵，贵金属价格冲高 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 25/01 25/04 25/07 25/10 26/01 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：避险情绪发酵，贵金属价格冲高。截至 1.23，COMEX 金主力合约达 4983.1 美元/盎司，环比上涨 8.3%。SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比增加 0.1%为 1087 吨。美国宣布向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲 国家加征关税。此外，欧洲方面还在考虑抛售美债。美元信用削弱趋 势短期加速抬升，避险情绪发酵下，黄金等贵金属价格上涨。长期来 看美国债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑持续，央行购金以及 黄金投资需求增长，贵金属价格重心或仍将继续抬升。 工业金属：看好工业金属上涨行情。 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 行 业 报 告 告 行 业 报 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编 ...

证券研究报告 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 SAC：S1350525120001 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 库存累积，铜铝价格高位震荡 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2026/1/19-2026/1/23） 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 25 日 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 铜：库存累积，铜价高位震荡。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为+0.43%/+0.57%/+1.51%。 本周铜价高位震荡调整，在金价持续创新高背景下，铜金融属性有望支撑铜价，预计铜价短 期回调空间或有限。库存端，本周铜库存累 ...

冲击日线5连阳！今日（1月23日）有色金属板块延续猛烈攻势，板块热门ETF——有色ETF华宝 （159876）场内涨幅盘中上探3.55%，现涨3.29%，续创历史新高！实时成交额1.07亿元，当前成交额已 超昨天全天。 ETF放量突破上市高点，或为资金买点信号！截至发稿，有色ETF华宝（159876）获资金实时净申购 5220万份，拉长时间来看，近20日狂揽8.44亿元！ | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日照 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 白银有色 | 9.97% | 14 | 有色含屈 | 工业会展 | रीवे | 768亿 | 30.294Z | | 2 | 铜陵有色 | 9.94% | mannel w | 有色金属 | 工业合属 | 铜 | 9201Z | 48.89 Z | | ਤੇ | 湖南白银 | 9.60% | Freeholder, or other of the continues of | 有色含肥 | ...

2026年伊始，全球低碳治理格局迎来标志性节点。欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）正式全面实施，海南 自贸港同步启动全岛封关运作。国内外绿色规则的双向演进，正深刻重塑产业竞争格局与资本流动方 向。与此同时，中国ESG投资生态走向成熟，如何从被动筛选走向主动进行价值发现与创造，成为市场 参与各方共同关注的议题。 中国证券报记者日前专访了中国银河证券国际ESG中心主任、首席ESG分析师马宗明，围绕CBAM落地 影响、自贸港机遇、ESG尽责管理中的痛点以及新规则下的投资策略等热点，进行了深入解读。 规则演进加速产业与估值重构 欧盟CBAM的落地，被视为影响全球贸易流动的"绿色阀门"。马宗明认为，该机制覆盖了水泥、钢铁、 铝等六大行业，对这些行业的"走出去"中国企业而言，短期内增加了合规成本与负担。尽管允许用本国 已缴纳的碳价进行抵扣，但中欧碳价存在显著差距，将对企业构成实质性成本压力。更重要的是， CBAM规则倒逼出口企业建立自身碳核算体系，并加速供应链的绿色重构。 此外，在马宗明看来，近期市场上出现的"ESG增强型指数"等工具，标志着国内ESG投资正从被动的风 险规避转向主动的价值影响。"这向企业发出了明确信号：良好 ...

● 本报记者 刘英杰 2026年伊始，全球低碳治理格局迎来标志性节点。欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）正式全面实施，海南 自贸港同步启动全岛封关运作。国内外绿色规则的双向演进，正深刻重塑产业竞争格局与资本流动方 向。与此同时，中国ESG投资生态走向成熟，如何从被动筛选走向主动进行价值发现与创造，成为市场 参与各方共同关注的议题。 中国证券报记者日前专访了中国银河证券国际ESG中心主任、首席ESG分析师马宗明，围绕CBAM落地 影响、自贸港机遇、ESG尽责管理中的痛点以及新规则下的投资策略等热点，进行了深入解读。 规则演进加速产业与估值重构 欧盟CBAM的落地，被视为影响全球贸易流动的"绿色阀门"。马宗明认为，该机制覆盖了水泥、钢铁、 铝等六大行业，对这些行业的"走出去"中国企业而言，短期内增加了合规成本与负担。尽管允许用本国 已缴纳的碳价进行抵扣，但中欧碳价存在显著差距，将对企业构成实质性成本压力。更重要的是， CBAM规则倒逼出口企业建立自身碳核算体系，并加速供应链的绿色重构。 "影响是可控的，但行业转型趋势是明确的。"马宗明认为，一方面，CBAM目前主要针对大中型企业， 且有年度豁免门槛；另一方面，中国在C ...

证券日报网1月22日讯 ，亚太科技（002540）在接受调研者提问时表示，公司长期以来保持按客户订单 来组织生产的模式和执行"铝锭价格+加工费"的产品销售定价原则。其中，铝锭价格一般参照结算月上 海长江有色金属现货交易所A00铝锭现货交易高价与低价的月度平均价确定，该模式可适当转移铝价波 动影响；同时，公司会根据需要适时开展铝期货的套期业务，并通过采取合理安排铝锭采购时间等措施 更好匹配铝锭采购价格与客户订单结算价格，以减少原材料价格波动对公司业绩的不确定影响，保障公 司经营的平稳性。 ...

（编辑 姚尧） 证券日报网1月22日讯 ，亚太科技在接受调研者提问时表示，截至2025年半年度末，公司年产10万吨绿 电高端铝基材料项目厂房竣工验收工作有序推进中，部分生产线已完成设备安装并进入投产调试阶段， 其余生产线的设备采购、安装调试等工作按计划推进中。 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/22 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/01/15 -75 6157 180543 162717 -1800.78 -144.30 38.0 41.0 37.60 141125 50100 2026/01/16 -355 6005 213515 160417 -1695.41 -130.54 32.0 36.0 61.52 143575 49575 2026/01/19 -340 5424 213515 152655 -1653.61 29.24 28.0 27.0 67.55 147425 48550 2026/01/20 -365 5109 213515 148193 -1773.40 -160.48 26.0 25.0 101.84 156300 47800 2026/01/21 -350 5002 213515 145581 -1047.36 -10.15 22.0 22.0 -29.1 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 22, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the sharp decline of European and American stock markets led to a rise in market risk aversion, causing the aluminum price to drop to a minimum of 23,660 yuan/ton. However, during the domestic daytime, the market sentiment remained relatively high, and the aluminum price rebounded above 24,000 yuan. The main contract 2603 closed at 24,155 yuan, with a gain of 0.56%. The total open interest increased by 15,000 lots to 714,000 lots [7]. - The adjustment of aluminum price has driven the overall purchasing sentiment of downstream industries to warm up, but the overall attitude remains cautious. The spot premium is expected to continue to be under pressure. The premium in East China was -150 yuan, -250 yuan in Central China, and -115 yuan in South China [7]. - The prices of domestic and overseas ores continued to operate weakly at a low level. The oversupply pressure of alumina remained unchanged, and the price continued to decline [7]. - The supply side of electrolytic aluminum remained stable. The new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia continued to increase production, but the short-term increment was limited. The high aluminum price still inhibited the terminal demand. However, benefiting from the demand for finished product inventory preparation as the Spring Festival approached, the demand side still had a certain degree of resilience. The continuous inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots put some pressure on the market [7]. - Currently, the aluminum price is still dominated by macro and capital factors. Due to the fluctuation of macro sentiment and the previous rapid rise, the aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The aluminum price was affected by the sharp decline of European and American stock markets overnight, but rebounded during the domestic daytime. The main contract closed with a gain, and the open interest increased [7]. - The purchasing sentiment of downstream industries improved, but remained cautious. The spot premium was under pressure [7]. - The prices of domestic and overseas ores and alumina continued to decline [7]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum was stable, and the demand had some resilience. The inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots put pressure on the market [7]. - The short-term aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [7]. 2. Industry News - Nineteen air-conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation work of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards, which triggered market discussions. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum-made household air-conditioning products as early as 2026, while others had no such plan [8]. - Lizhong Group said that its production and operation had been stable in recent years, and the overall capacity utilization rate had gradually increased. The second phase of the 3.6 million ultra-lightweight aluminum alloy wheel project in its Mexican factory with a capacity of 1.8 million had been initially put into production. The third factory in Thailand with an annual production capacity of 3 million cast-rotated aluminum alloy wheels was expected to be put into production next year. The high-performance aluminum alloy new material projects newly built in Chongqing, Huaian, Changchun, Thailand and other places would be put into production successively from the fourth quarter of this year to next year [10]. - India's state-owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start the mining of the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support the expansion of its integrated aluminum business. The company has awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the improvement of mining capacity, Nalco is expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment, so cautious participation is advised. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply side is gradually recovering, but considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price fluctuates, rising after a decline. The production in January and February is expected to decrease. The demand side is likely to decline slightly in January. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the changes in production on the demand side [3]. Polysilicon - The average spot price of polysilicon and the price of silicon wafers have declined. The demand expectation has improved, and component production may increase slightly, which is conducive to inventory digestion. However, polysilicon and silicon wafer prices are under pressure due to high inventory. The monthly average production in the first quarter is expected to drop to about 80,000 tons. The price may be supported at the 48,000 yuan/ton level, and even at 45,000 yuan/ton considering full - cost support [4]. Copper - Market speculative sentiment has eased, and copper prices fluctuated. Geopolitical factors affect market expectations of copper tariffs. The global visible inventory has reached a high level in recent years, and the return of COMEX copper inventory may ease the supply pressure in non - US regions. In the short term, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing, and in the long term, the price bottom center is expected to gradually rise. Attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes, with support at 97500 - 98500 [5]. Zinc - Market speculative sentiment has eased, and zinc prices adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, and the import window for zinc ore has opened. The supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. High zinc prices have suppressed demand, and the downstream operating rate has weakened. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support around 23,800. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [9]. Aluminum - The alumina market showed a weak and volatile trend, with an oversupply situation. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is in a high - level volatile pattern. Although macro and policy expectations are positive, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed. Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton [12]. Nickel - The nickel futures market was volatile. Macro factors and the situation of Indonesian nickel ore quotas affect the market. The overall spot transaction of refined nickel is average. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron have increased. The demand for stainless steel in the off - season is weak, and the market cost is relatively limited. The inventory pressure has increased. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 138000 - 148000 [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated at a high level, with cost being the main driving factor. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The social inventory has decreased slightly. The ADC12 price is expected to continue the high - level volatile pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 23500 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices showed a narrow - range fluctuation and then a late - session rally. Macro factors and raw material supply expectations affect the market. The raw material prices are expected to rise, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The social inventory is decreasing, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14200 - 15000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures prices rose sharply. News about lithium concentrate auctions and mine supply fluctuations affected the market sentiment. The production is slightly increasing, and the supply is expected to decline during the pre - holiday maintenance period. The downstream demand shows certain resilience. Social inventory decreased last week. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, but chasing the rise requires attention to volatility and liquidity risks [20]. Summary by Directory Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.22% to 395,750 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased 14.82% to - 92.00 dollars/ton. The import loss was - 7117.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.99% [2]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports increased 16.81% to 17,637 tons, SMM refined tin production decreased 0.06% to 15,950 tons, and refined tin exports increased 41.84% to 2763 tons [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased 37.69% to 9549.0 tons, and social inventory increased 36.07% to 10,175.0 tons [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis of Main Contracts**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased 6.93% [3]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and Xinjiang's production increased 6.46% to 25.29 million tons. The national operating rate decreased 0.35% to 64.59% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased 2.91% to 14.83 million tons, and social inventory increased 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [3]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type granular silicon decreased 7.34% to 50,500 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis increased 5.49% [4]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: Polysilicon production increased 0.79% to 11.55 million tons, and silicon wafer production decreased 19.26% to 43.90 million tons [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: Silicon wafer inventory decreased 5.53% to 24.78 million tons, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased 1.54% to 4620.00 [4]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased 0.66% to 100,060 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 increased to 101.84 dollars/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and imports decreased 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased 7.81% to 69.04 million tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased 12.27% to 32.94 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 18.26% to 21.35 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased 0.53% to 24,210 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased to - 1851 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, refined zinc production decreased 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and imports decreased 51.94% to 0.88 million tons [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased 3.13% to 12.20 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.40% to 11.2 million tons [9]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum increased 0.13% to 23,710 yuan/ton, and the alumina (Shandong) average price decreased 0.19% to 2560 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, alumina production decreased 1.08% to 743.94 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.97% to 363.66 million tons [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased 2.60% to 74.90 million tons, and LME inventory increased 5.01% to 50.7 million tons [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased 0.99% to 144,900 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased 2.15% to - 200 dollars/ton [13]. - **Cost and New - Energy Material Prices**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel increased 1.09% to 112,237 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased 0.22% to 33,375 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased 26.10% to 31,400 tons, and SHFE inventory increased 3.28% to 48,180 tons [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 23,850 yuan/ton, and the Foshan crushed primary aluminum scrap price difference increased 0.80% to 2509 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 6.16% to 64.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased 0.46% to 30.41 million tons [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 1.41% to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased 1.40% to 14,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) increased 0.89% to 51 dollars/wet ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.92% to 176.32 million tons, and stainless steel imports increased 29.32% to 14.50 million tons [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased 1.47% to 45.07 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 3.93% to 158,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF increased 2.52% to 2035 dollars/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased 4.04% to 99,200 tons, and demand decreased 2.50% to 130,118 tons [20]. - **Inventory Changes**: In December, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased 12.23% to 56,664 tons, and downstream inventory decreased 7.21% to 38,998 tons [20].