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中信证券:供给扰动持续升温 关注铝板块机会
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent attacks on EGA and Alba's aluminum plants, affecting a capacity of 3.1 million tons per year, with unclear impacts [1][2] - Following a previous reduction of 560,000 tons per year, supply disruption risks in the Middle East continue to rise [1][2] - The long-term supply and demand logic in the aluminum industry remains solid, and rising supply disruptions may lead to prices exceeding expectations, indicating a positive outlook for aluminum sector investments [1][2] Group 2 - Key risk factors include the escalation of global trade disputes, unexpected increases in overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and lower-than-expected growth in downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum [1][2] - Additional risks involve significant increases in global energy costs, disruptions in raw material supply at the mining level, and lower-than-expected dividend payouts from domestic aluminum companies [1][2] - The geopolitical situation's further deterioration also poses a risk to the industry [1][2]