Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry, forecasting a slight decline in revenue but continued profit growth for the first quarter of 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a 0.7% year-on-year decline in revenue for listed banks in Q1 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 1.1% [3]. - State-owned banks are expected to maintain a stable profit growth base, while joint-stock and city commercial banks will face revenue pressures [3]. - City and rural commercial banks are projected to achieve revenue growth of 3.6% and 1% respectively, with net profit growth of 7.9% and 4.3% [3]. - The report highlights that non-interest income, particularly from financial market investments, will be the largest pressure on revenue in Q1 2025 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Listed banks are expected to see a revenue decline of 0.7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with net profit growth of 1.1% [3]. - State-owned banks are projected to experience a slight revenue decline of 0.5% but a net profit increase of 0.9% [3]. - Joint-stock banks are expected to face a revenue decline of 2.3% and a net profit decrease of 0.2% [3]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income is under pressure due to high base effects from the previous year and rising interest rates impacting fair value [4][5]. - The report estimates a decline in non-interest income for listed banks in Q1 2025, likely in the range of 10-20% [5]. Interest Margin and Credit Growth - The report predicts that net interest income will continue to grow, supported by a decline in funding costs and stable credit growth [5][6]. - The overall credit growth rate is expected to remain stable at around 7% for the year, with a focus on corporate lending [6]. Asset Quality and Provisions - The report anticipates a slight decrease in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 1.23% in Q1 2025, with a stable provision coverage ratio around 240% [6]. - Retail banks may face more significant asset quality pressures compared to others, but proactive management is expected to mitigate risks [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with solid provisions and those benefiting from favorable regional policies, highlighting specific banks such as Chongqing Bank and Suzhou Bank for city commercial banks, and Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank for joint-stock banks [6].