银行板块估值重构
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银行股全线上涨,银行ETF、银行ETF基金、银行ETF易方达、银行ETF南方涨超2%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-18 08:42
Group 1 - The banking sector experienced a significant rally, with bank stocks rising across the board, including Shanghai Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, which both increased by over 3% [2] - The China Securities Bank ETF and various bank ETFs saw gains of over 2%, indicating strong investor interest in the banking sector [2] - A total of 32 listed banks announced plans for mid-term dividends, with an average dividend payout ratio of 24.9%, amounting to a total dividend distribution of 264.57 billion yuan, a 2.55% increase from the previous year [2] Group 2 - The banking sector is projected to deliver excess returns from the end of 2022 to mid-2025, with the price-to-book (PB) ratio expected to rise from 0.5 times to 0.7 times by December 2025 [3] - Institutional funds, including insurance and northbound capital, are expected to drive the banking sector's performance in 2024, while trading funds may exhibit volatility [3] - Long-term capital, represented by insurance funds, continues to increase its holdings in the banking sector, enhancing pricing efficiency and valuation reconstruction [4] Group 3 - The valuation of Chinese banks is considered undervalued compared to the US and Japan, with a mismatch between PB and return on equity (ROE) [4] - The banking sector is expected to provide absolute and relative returns in the first and fourth quarters, reflecting seasonal characteristics in stock performance [4]