2026 年银行股投资策略展望 20251208 摘要 预计 2026 年中国宏观经济增速约为 4.8%，货币环境保持适度宽松， 存在降息空间，这将有助于缓解商业银行的息差压力。 预测 2026 年商业银行营收和利润增速将提升至 2.7%-3%左右，主要 受益于息差降幅收窄和利息净收入恢复正增长，但金融市场波动可能带 来一定负面影响。 国有银行和城商行扩表动能依然强劲，总资产增速维持在 10%以上，尤 其是在川渝、山东、上海等经济大省，区域性城商行扩表具备较好支撑。 中小型银行息差韧性优于大型国有行，部分优质城商行如南京银行、成 都银行、重庆银行等，凭借较强的贷款组织能力和资本充足率，业绩增 速有望跑赢整体上市银行。 预计 2026 年非信贷收入将呈现负增长，但手续费收入受益于资本市场 发展和减费影响消退，将保持正增长，整体营收增速预计将从 2025 年 的 1.2%提升至接近 3%。 信用成本率预计明年略微下降，对公业务延续改善趋势，但零售领域仍 面临压力，房地产市场企稳是关键。政府化债和风险化解有助于企业对 公资产质量保持健康。 当前银行股主动筹码处于历史低位，公募持股比例仅占 1.5%，为十年 新低，意 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of combining quality and valuation factors in bank stock investments, highlighting that strategies based on high ROE/PB and high "(loan-to-deposit ratio - non-performing loan ratio - attention ratio) × dividend yield" have achieved cumulative excess returns exceeding 300% since 2011, indicating the significance of "quality" and "value" in bank stock investments [1][12]. Summary by Sections Quantitative Backtesting Overview - The report introduces a quantitative backtesting approach tailored for bank stocks, utilizing industry-specific fundamental, financial, and operational indicators to develop effective trading strategies [2][4]. Methodology - The core of quantitative strategies lies in identifying specific indicators (factors) to select stocks that aim to optimize the risk-return profile, with backtesting serving as a method to evaluate these strategies using historical data [3]. Investment Strategy Analysis - A total of 11 bank stock investment strategies were backtested, revealing that: 1. Valuation factors showed effectiveness in controlling drawdowns, with low PE strategies outperforming high dividend strategies and low PB strategies in terms of excess returns [6]. 2. Profitability factors had limited impact during periods of declining valuations, with high ROE and profit growth strategies yielding less than 50% excess returns [6]. 3. Quality factors contributed significantly to excess returns, particularly the high "(loan-to-deposit ratio - non-performing loan ratio - attention ratio)" strategy, which achieved a cumulative excess return of 201% [6]. 4. The combination of fundamental and valuation factors improved portfolio performance, with high "(loan-to-deposit ratio - non-performing loan ratio - attention ratio) × dividend yield" and high ROE/PB strategies achieving excess returns of 326% and 309%, respectively [6]. Insights from Backtesting Results - Key insights include: 1. Profitability, asset quality, and reasonable valuation are critical for bank investments, with ROE and asset quality being significant drivers of relative returns [7]. 2. Different market styles lead to significant variations in strategy performance, with low PB and high profit growth strategies dominating in rising markets, while high "(loan-to-deposit ratio - non-performing loan ratio - attention ratio) × dividend yield" strategies excel in core asset styles [7]. Performance Metrics - The performance metrics of various strategies indicate that: - The low PB strategy achieved a total return of 313.71% with an excess return of 74.15% [8]. - The high ROE/PB strategy yielded a total return of 548.19% with an excess return of 308.63% [8]. - The high "(loan-to-deposit ratio - non-performing loan ratio - attention ratio) × dividend yield" strategy reached a total return of 565.15% with an excess return of 325.59% [8].