Core Insights - The production of power and energy storage batteries in China reached 1121.9 GWh from January to September 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 62.7%, which is notably higher than the growth rate in 2024 [1] - The sales of energy storage batteries surged by 75.5% year-on-year during the same period, with the tender capacity increasing by 178% [1] - CITIC Securities indicates that the demand for energy storage batteries is expected to exceed forecasts due to supportive policies, enhanced battery capacity per vehicle, and trade-in policies boosting demand for power batteries [1] Industry Trends - The global demand for energy storage and power batteries is anticipated to remain robust, with lithium salt demand expected to continue exceeding forecasts [1] - The peak investment period in the lithium industry has passed, and future growth will primarily come from increased production or ramp-up of existing projects, leading to a gradual decline in the growth rate of lithium resource supply [1] - As of September, the inventory-to-sales ratio for lithium salt refineries dropped to 28%, reaching levels seen in 2022, indicating that lithium salt inventory levels are at their limit [1] Supply and Pricing Outlook - The projected surplus in the global lithium industry from 2025 to 2028 is estimated at 101,000 tons, 78,000 tons, 29,000 tons, and 11,000 tons respectively, suggesting a gradual shift towards a balanced supply-demand scenario [1] - Lithium prices are expected to stabilize at a bottom range, with forecasts indicating a price range of 80,000 to 100,000 yuan per ton in 2026 [1] - Companies with low-cost profiles and high-quality mining assets are recommended for attention as they may benefit from the rebound in lithium prices [1]