高盛发布研报称，锂市场基本面近几月显著改善，预计2025年下半年至2026年上半年供需将呈现偏紧状态，主要原因在于国内需求及出口双双走强，其中储能系统是预期变化最大的驱动因素， 不过，该行认为当前现货价格存在下行风险，原因包括下游市场在短期内的负面反馈，储能系统安装增长速度减缓和其他因素影响库存增补，供应端节奏也较慢。高盛更新锂价预测，以中国基准 责任编辑：史丽君 ...

| 铝产业链期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月24日 | | | 周围观 | Z0015979 | | 价格及价差 现值 前值 涨跌 | | | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 21380 | 21570 | -190.0 | -0.88% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 0 | -10 | 10.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 长江 铝A00 21380 | 21570 | -190.0 | -0.88% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 0 | -10 | 10.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 2770 | 2770 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 2860 | 2860 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氢化铝(山西)-平均价 2835 | 2840 | -5.0 | -0.18% | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(广西)-平均价 2910 | 2910 | 0.0 | ...

Group 1: Aluminum Market - The logic of aluminum shortage is expected to gradually materialize, leading to an upward cycle in aluminum prices, with electrolytic aluminum profits continuing to expand [3] - Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.48% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the profit margin for electrolytic aluminum rose by 5.40% to 6,051 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory levels show an increase in London aluminum stock by 0.57% to 552,400 tons and Shanghai aluminum stock by 1.38% to 114,900 tons, while domestic spot inventory decreased by 0.16% to 619,000 tons [3] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to macroeconomic factors, with London copper, Shanghai copper, and US copper showing respective changes of +0.99%, +1.12%, and +1.86% [2] - Domestic copper inventory is decreasing, with London copper at 136,000 tons, New York copper at 381,000 short tons, and Shanghai copper at 109,000 tons, showing changes of -0.13%, +3.23%, and -4.89% respectively [2] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased by 4.91 percentage points to 66.88% [2] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium demand has exceeded expectations, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 5.91% to 85,200 yuan/ton and spodumene concentrate increasing by 8.52% to 1,006 USD/ton [4][5] - Lithium carbonate production reached 21,500 tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1%, while weekly inventory decreased by 2.8% to 120,500 tons [4][5] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as inventory continues to decline [5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The tight supply of cobalt raw materials remains unchanged, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising, as MB cobalt increased by 0.53% to 23.65 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices rose by 3.39% to 397,000 yuan/ton [5] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban, transitioning to a quota system, but current export approvals are still pending, indicating a continued tight supply in the short term [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has acknowledged a previous misjudgment regarding the lithium market and upgraded the ratings of Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium from "Underweight" to "Neutral" [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - The significant revision by Morgan Stanley is primarily due to the previously underestimated explosive demand from the energy storage (ESS) market [1] - The supply of lithium is expected to remain tight, as the resumption of operations at CATL's mines is insufficient to alleviate the situation [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts a supply gap in the global lithium market in 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast Adjustments - The bank has raised its lithium price forecast for 2026 from RMB 70,000 per ton to RMB 90,000 per ton, representing an increase of nearly 30% [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The reopening of the US government may release the frozen TGA account, and the expectation of liquidity release has pushed up overnight risk assets. Although the rise of copper prices has narrowed due to the weakening of A - shares, the expected decline of domestic social inventories and the possible end of the US government shutdown will support copper prices [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices fluctuated strongly. The expectation of liquidity release pushed up overnight risk assets, and the intraday high of Shanghai copper's main contract jumped to 87,050. However, as A - shares weakened, the increase of copper prices narrowed. The spot copper rose 230 to 86,765, and the spot premium remained flat. The strengthening of copper prices slowed down the release of downstream orders, but with the gradual decline of domestic social inventories, the spot premium is expected to have limited downward space. The loss of spot imports expanded to over 700, the LME 0 - 3 contango narrowed to 14.85, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. It is expected that domestic social inventories will continue to decline in the short term, supporting copper prices [10]. 2. Industry News - In October, the sales volume of lithium concentrate in Brazil decreased significantly month - on - month because the largest lithium spodumene producer, Sigma lithium, did not export during this period. In October, Brazilian producers exported 9,993 tons of spodumene concentrate, an 85% decrease from the unusually high 66,800 tons in September, but exports increased by about 54% year - on - year. Sigma Lithium plans to announce its 7 - 9 monthly performance after the stock market closes on November 14 [11]. - On November 10, the State Administration for Market Regulation announced that it approved the establishment of a joint venture between Codelco and SQM with additional restrictive conditions. The two companies planned to form a joint venture through asset injection to jointly operate the lithium mine project in the Atacama Salt Lake in Chile. The restrictive conditions require the two companies and the joint venture to make commitments such as continuing to fulfill contracts, supplying fairly and reasonably without discrimination, and reporting major supply changes in a timely manner, which is beneficial to the stable supply and reasonable price of lithium carbonate products [11][12]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices continue to rise, with COMEX gold reaching $4155 per ounce, marking a three-day increase [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 40 days, with President Trump indicating a potential resolution is near [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by at least 25 basis points, with a 50 basis point cut deemed appropriate [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 12th consecutive month, supporting the macroeconomic foundation for gold prices [1] - Citic Securities identifies five categories of downward risks for gold prices, which are currently not significant [1] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Analysts suggest focusing on the entire non-ferrous metals sector rather than individual metals, with positive macroeconomic expectations from U.S.-China trade talks [2] - Continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and potential liquidity improvements are expected to benefit copper and aluminum prices [2] - The lithium sector is experiencing strong demand due to energy storage needs and anticipated purchasing tax changes for electric vehicles, leading to increased lithium prices [2] Group 3: ETF Performance and Market Trends - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) saw an early gain of over 1% but later adjusted to a decline of 0.99%, maintaining a strong technical position above moving averages [3] - Key stocks in the ETF include Guocheng Mining and Huayu Mining, which have shown significant gains, while companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Tianqi Lithium have faced declines [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector is characterized by varying degrees of market performance, suggesting a diversified investment approach may be beneficial [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals market, particularly focusing on copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and aluminum sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Copper Market - The copper market is facing supply tightness, with several mining companies lowering production guidance, leading to a year-on-year production decline of approximately 104,000 tons in Q3 2025, potentially reaching 150,000 tons by year-end [3][4]. - The anticipated new supply for 2026 is limited to about 300,000 tons, with Freeport's recovery not meeting expectations, which could exacerbate supply issues [4]. - Demand for copper remains strong, driven by a 4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in the U.S., particularly in power equipment [6]. - Copper prices are expected to break through the $14,000 to $15,000 per ton range by early 2026 [7]. Rare Earths - The relaxation of rare earth export controls is expected to lead to significant overseas restocking, replicating the substantial export increases seen in Q3 2025 [1][9]. - Domestic regulations on imported ore smelting are tightening, with non-compliant smelting plants facing consolidation or shutdown, which will support the fundamentals of the rare earth market [10]. - Key companies recommended include China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [10]. Lithium Market - The lithium market is projected to shift from marginal oversupply to tightness, with expected storage demand growth of 80% in 2026 [11]. - Following a production halt by CATL, inventory depletion has been significant, with weekly reductions increasing from 1,000 tons to 3,000 tons due to surging storage orders [12]. - Companies to watch include Guocheng Mining, Dazhong Mining, and Shengxin Lithium Energy, which are expected to benefit from price increases [12]. Cobalt Market - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise, despite a current price drop to around 400,000 yuan, primarily due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [14]. - The industry is expected to face a shortage of 20,000 to 30,000 tons of raw materials in 2026, pushing prices higher [14]. - Companies of interest include Huayou Cobalt, Li Qun Co., and Tengyuan Technology [15]. Nickel Market - The nickel market is closely tied to Indonesia's RKA B quota disclosures, as Indonesia controls 60% of global nickel supply [16]. - A lower-than-expected quota could lead to a slight increase in nickel prices, which are currently supported at $15,000 per ton [16]. Aluminum Market - The aluminum sector is experiencing upward momentum due to multiple catalysts, including potential shutdowns of major production facilities in the U.S. and Mozambique [17][18]. - China's aluminum exports account for nearly 40%, and the outlook for external demand is optimistic, particularly following recent monetary easing in the U.S. and Europe [18]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the metals market is bullish, with expectations of a comprehensive bull market for both non-ferrous and ferrous metals in 2026 [2]. - The focus on energy transition and technological advancements in mining and smelting processes is expected to influence supply dynamics significantly [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc. reported a net profit of 180 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year, despite a decline in lithium product sales prices due to market fluctuations [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 7.397 billion yuan and a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.193 billion yuan [1]. - As of the end of Q3, the cash balance stood at 6.527 billion yuan, indicating a strong financial position [1]. Strategic Developments - Tianqi Lithium's Zhangjiagang project for producing 30,000 tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was completed by the end of July 2025, with product parameters meeting battery-grade standards confirmed on October 17 [2]. - The company is investing 500 million yuan in a partnership with professional investment institutions to explore opportunities in new materials and new energy sectors, aligning with its vertical integration strategy [2]. Industry Outlook - The lithium industry is experiencing a transition from a low point to recovery, with technological innovation and high-end transformation being key drivers for future growth [3]. - Analysts suggest that the lithium market is showing signs of marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with increased purchasing activity for lithium salts due to a recovery in demand [3]. - Companies in the lithium sector are advised to enhance R&D investments and diversify their operations to better navigate industry cycles [3]. Company Transformation - Tianqi Lithium is transitioning from a "lithium resource supplier" to a "new materials solution provider," focusing on advanced battery systems and new materials like lithium metal and lithium sulfide [3]. - The company aims to solidify its position in the new energy materials sector by continuously launching commercially viable new materials products [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China has established a complete lithium product supply system, with production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other lithium products leading globally for several consecutive years [1] - According to CITIC Securities, the demand for energy storage batteries is expected to exceed expectations due to storage policy support, with an anticipated increase in demand for power batteries driven by higher single-vehicle energy capacity and trade-in policies [1] - The lithium industry is expected to experience a supply surplus from 2025 to 2028, with surplus amounts projected at 101,000 tons, 78,000 tons, 29,000 tons, and 11,000 tons respectively, indicating a gradual shift towards supply-demand balance and potential price recovery [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities notes that strong demand and destocking expectations are driving lithium prices upward, with new production lines coming online for both spodumene and salt lake lithium, leading to steady supply increases [2] - The demand side remains robust, with significant growth in power batteries and a thriving energy storage market, as evidenced by a 5% year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in October [2] - The operating rates of downstream manufacturers continue to rise, providing support for spot transactions, while low-cost production capacity is still being released, indicating ongoing production pressure [2]

Core Insights - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association forecasts a 6% increase in the added value of the nonferrous metals industry by 2025, with an expected production of around 80 million tons of ten commonly used nonferrous metals [1] - The production of recycled metals is projected to exceed 20 million tons, while the prices of copper and aluminum are expected to remain high, and the prices of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are hovering at low levels [1] - The revenue of large-scale nonferrous metal enterprises is expected to approach 10 trillion yuan, with total profits around 450 billion yuan, potentially setting historical records [1] Industry Overview - China's lithium carbonate production from January to September this year was approximately 588,000 tons, and lithium hydroxide production was about 303,000 tons, with the basic lithium salt industry primarily distributed in Jiangxi, Sichuan, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong [1] - The lithium battery industry chain in China is complete and has significant scale advantages, with a focus on the entire lifecycle from development to recycling [2] - The domestic market for new energy vehicles and energy storage provides ample space for technological iteration and capacity absorption [2] Challenges and Recommendations - The lithium industry faces challenges such as high dependence on foreign lithium resources, insufficient capacity utilization, profitability pressures, and risks related to core technology competition and iteration [2] - It is recommended that lithium industry enterprises increase R&D investment, optimize operational management, promote green and intelligent development, and enhance collaboration across the industry chain to effectively respond to the complex market environment [2]