2026 年 03 月 01 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20260223-20260301） 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 比 较 相关研究 - 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日） ⚫ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 22.8 倍，PB 为 1.9 倍，处于历史 83%和 53%分位； ✓ ...

Group 1: Amer Sports Performance - Amer Sports reported a 27% revenue growth for the fiscal year 2025, reaching $6.566 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $545 million, up from $236 million in 2024 [7][8] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 28% to $2.101 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $176 million, compared to $90 million in Q4 2024 [8] - The management guidance for 2026 indicates a revenue growth of 16-18% at constant exchange rates, with an operating profit margin of 13.1-13.3% [8] Group 2: Silver Economy and Sports Industry - The aging population in China is creating significant opportunities in the silver economy, particularly in the sports industry and products catering to older adults [9][10] - The sports apparel market is projected to reach ¥437.7 billion by 2025, with outdoor trail running shoes expected to grow over 150% [9] - The demand for professional running shoes priced above ¥200 is anticipated to maintain double-digit growth, driven by increased health awareness among the elderly [9] Group 3: Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium market is experiencing tightening supply and low inventory levels, with global lithium demand expected to reach approximately 200,000 tons LCE in 2026 [12][14] - Domestic lithium supply is not yet at large-scale production, with potential disruptions in lithium mica supply and new mining regulations coming into effect in July 2025 [13] - The demand for lithium is being driven by both power and energy storage batteries, with a projected 50% year-on-year growth in energy storage battery shipments [13][14] Group 4: Chemical Industry Policy - Recent tax incentives for marine oil and gas exploration aim to enhance domestic energy security by reducing import costs for essential equipment [15][16] - The policy includes exemptions from import duties for equipment used in oil and gas exploration and a VAT rebate for qualifying imported natural gas [15][16] - These measures are expected to improve project internal rates of return and promote the development of deep-sea oil and gas fields [16] Group 5: Matrix Holdings - Matrix Holdings is positioned as a leading high-end interior design company, with a focus on space design and soft decoration [19] - The company anticipates a significant recovery in revenue and profit starting in 2025, with projected net profit growth of 72%-137% [19][20] - The introduction of an "AI+Design" platform is expected to enhance design efficiency and improve profit margins [20] Group 6: Anfu Technology - Anfu Technology, a leader in the small battery sector, is transitioning towards high-tech fields, including AI and semiconductor manufacturing [21][22] - The company controls 46% of Nanfu Battery, which has shown consistent revenue growth, with plans to acquire the remaining shares [22] - Strategic investments in next-generation optical chips are expected to open new growth avenues for the company [23]

供给：锂价反弹刺激供给，但短期增量有限 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，动力电池和储能电池双驱动，预计2026年全球锂需求有望达 到约200万吨LCE。另国内锂电池出口退税下调，短期或推动锂电抢出口，需求前置下或将带动锂行业 供需边际趋紧。经历过连续几个月的去库存之后，目前国内锂盐库存周期仅不足一个月时间，在供需如 此紧张的情况下，库存矛盾将愈加凸显。该行看好锂价在近期进一步上行，预计短期有望涨至20万元/ 吨以上。 国信证券主要观点如下： 相关标的：赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、盐湖股份、中矿资源、永兴材料、华友钴业、盛新锂能、雅化集团、 大中矿业、国城矿业 风险提示：锂终端需求不及预期;全球锂资源开发速度超预期。 动力电池和储能电池双驱动，预计2026年全球锂需求有望达到约200万吨LCE。储能电池需求自2025年 下半年开始显著超预期，年初也保持旺盛的需求状态，预计全年出货量可以达到900Gwh左右，同比增 速近50%;动力电池需求年初遇冷，主要是受补贴退坡和淡季消费等因素影响，预计从3月份开始有望迅 速回暖，全年仍有望实现20%左右增长。另外，国内锂电池出口退税下调，自2026年4月1日至12月31日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the lithium carbonate market, including futures data, spot data, basis and warehouse receipt data, and cost - profit analysis, aiming to help investors understand the market situation and potential investment opportunities [2][19][26][37] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Data - The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is expected to be in a wide - range shock between 120,000 and 200,000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 107.6% and a historical percentile of 95.7% over 3 years [2] - The main contract's closing price is 166,480 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2360 yuan (1.44%) and a weekly increase of 29,140 yuan (21.22%). The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the main contract and weighted index contract also showed significant changes [4] - The CME lithium hydroxide futures prices for different months in 2026 showed varying degrees of increase, and the LME lithium hydroxide futures also had corresponding trading data [14][17] Spot Data - In the lithium battery industry chain, various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery materials showed price changes. For example, the latest average price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 5400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 575 yuan (11.92%) [19] - The price differences between different lithium products also changed. For example, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 3500 yuan/ton, while the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide changed [22] Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract and near - month contract showed seasonal characteristics. The basis of different brands of lithium carbonate also had corresponding quotes [28][29][30] - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 330 to 38,525, and the warehouse receipts of different warehouses also changed [33] Cost - Profit - The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore and lithium hydroxide production profits by different methods showed different trends over time. The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate and the export profit of lithium hydroxide and import profit of lithium carbonate also had corresponding data [38][39]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：SMM 2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口（含在途货物），旨在加强矿产监管与 问责。未来仅持有效采矿权及获批选矿厂的企业具备出口资格，禁止代理及第三方贸易商出口。申请时 需提交省级矿业办关于选矿能力及合规的建议信，并申报矿物成分。违规者（如续用过期待办）将吊销 出口许可乃至采矿权。 据SMM独家了解，官方声明属实，原则上计划2027年禁止精矿出口；当前在津巴布韦当地拥有锂盐或 硫酸锂生产产能的企业仍可申请锂精矿出口许可证，且硫酸锂目前允许出口。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：SMM 2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口（含在途货物），旨在加强矿产监管与 问责。未来仅持有效采矿权及获批选矿厂的企业具备出口资格，禁止代理及第三方贸易商出口。申请时 需提交省级矿业办关于选矿能力及合规的建议信，并申报矿物成分。违规者（如续用过期待办）将吊销 出口许可乃至采矿权。 据SMM独家了解，官方声明属实，原则上计划2027年禁止精 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Indonesia's nickel mining policy changes have led to a significant reduction in mining quotas, decreasing to 260 million tons in 2026, a 30% drop from 2025, causing global nickel prices to fluctuate sharply [1] - Jin Yuan Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from the anticipated rise in nickel prices, as it has a nickel production capacity of 6,000 tons per year [1] - The company's lithium extraction project is currently in the equipment debugging phase due to high-altitude conditions, resulting in slow progress [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Jin Yuan's stock has shown volatility over the past week, with a 1.38% increase to 5.86 yuan on February 11, followed by a 1.71% decrease to 5.76 yuan on February 12, and a further slight decline to 5.75 yuan on February 13 [2] - Technical indicators suggest weak short-term momentum, with the MACD in negative territory and KDJ indicating a K value of 36.35 [2] - The stock is nearing its lower support level of 5.33 yuan, with a resistance level at 6.93 yuan [2] Group 3: Financial Analysis - Jin Yuan's financial performance is under pressure, with a net profit of -102 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 187.51% [3] - The company's return on equity stands at -5.84%, and its gross profit margin is -3.48%, significantly below the industry average of 27.57% [3] - The relative valuation range for the stock is between 4.99 and 5.51 yuan, with a C rating for accuracy, indicating poor profitability and a high stock price [3] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Institutions maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on the nickel industry, with expectations of price support due to reduced supply from Indonesia, although short-term fluctuations are anticipated due to inventory accumulation [4] - Zhongyuan Securities has a "stronger than market" rating for the lithium battery industry, focusing on upstream raw material price trends, though it did not directly comment on Jin Yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [4]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, net sales reached $1.4 billion, a 16% increase from $1.2 billion in the same period last year, driven by growth in lithium products (+17%) and Ketjen products (+13%) [1][2]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $26.87 million, reflecting a 7.2% increase compared to the previous year [16]. - The overall net loss attributable to Albemarle was $414.2 million in Q4 2025, an increase of $489.5 million year-over-year, primarily due to tax-related items and asset impairments [2][16]. Summary by Sections Overall Financial Performance - Q4 2025 net sales were $1.4 billion, up 16% from $1.2 billion in Q4 2024, with a gross profit of $197.9 million, a 43% increase year-over-year [1][16]. - The net loss for the full year 2025 was $465.2 million, compared to a loss of $1.1 billion in 2024 [5]. Lithium Segment - In Q4 2025, lithium sales volume was 63,000 tons LCE, a 6% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 28.6% increase year-over-year [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the lithium segment in Q4 2025 was $16.71 million, a 34.6% increase from the previous quarter and a 25% increase year-over-year [6]. Specialty Products - Q4 2025 net sales for specialty chemicals were $34.89 million, a 1.1% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 4.8% increase year-over-year [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA for specialty products in 2025 was $27.6 million, a 21% increase from the previous year [9]. Ketjen Segment - In Q4 2025, Ketjen's net sales were $32.01 million, a 26% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 13.6% increase year-over-year [10][11]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Ketjen in 2025 was $15 million, a 15% increase, primarily due to increased FCC sales [12]. 2026 Outlook - The lithium business is expected to see stable sales volumes in 2026, with market prices assumed to remain stable [13]. - The specialty products outlook reflects moderate sales growth in key end markets, although some sectors like automotive and construction are expected to be weak [14].

Group 1: Acquisition Background and Scale - The company announced on February 5, 2026, its plan to acquire a 13.93% stake in Huirong Mining from Xiamen Chuangyi for 1.26 billion yuan, aiming for 100% control of the Muro Lithium Mine [1] - Since 2020, the company has invested over 5 billion yuan through multiple rounds of capital increases and equity acquisitions to fully control the mine, including a 1.456 billion yuan acquisition of a 21% stake in September 2025 and a 2.08 billion yuan acquisition of the remaining 30% in December 2025 [1] - The Muro Lithium Mine has significant resources, with identified lithium oxide resources of 989,600 tons and an average grade of 1.62%, with a designed annual production capacity of 3 million tons, which will enhance the company's self-sufficiency in lithium raw materials by over 50% after production [1] Group 2: Reasons for Stock Price Fluctuation - The full acquisition of the Muro Lithium Mine is seen as a key move for the company to strengthen upstream resource control, with lithium prices rebounding since the second half of 2025, leading to expectations of improved cost advantages and benefits from industry recovery [2] - Despite a net loss of 752 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 88.72 million yuan in the third quarter, indicating a turnaround mainly due to rising lithium salt prices and the commencement of its Indonesia project, alleviating market concerns about ongoing losses [2] - On January 23, 2026, institutional investors net bought over 700 million yuan, reflecting optimism about the company's prospects post-acquisition, while the company plans to raise 3.2 billion yuan through a private placement to ease financial pressure [2] Group 3: Recent Stock Performance - As of February 12, 2026, the company's stock closed at 38.85 yuan, with a single-day increase of 3.82% and a cumulative increase of 13.90% over the past five days, driven by the acquisition and the lithium price rebound [3] - The construction period for the Muro Lithium Mine is long (approximately 4 years), and any delays in production or fluctuations in lithium prices could impact performance [3] Group 4: Industry Policy Status - The demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage continues to grow, with global lithium demand expected to increase by 30% year-on-year in 2025, supporting a tight supply-demand balance that raises the central price of lithium [4] - The company, with a lithium salt production capacity of 137,000 tons per year, aligns its resource layout with the industry's favorable conditions [4]

Economic Overview - The company Yongshan Lithium Industry (603399) recently disclosed a projected net loss for 2025, estimating a loss between 310 million to 390 million yuan, primarily due to a decline in lithium salt prices, increased inventory impairment losses, and low profit margins in the molybdenum business [2]. Recent Events - In January 2026, the company experienced multiple equity auction events, including the sale of 10 million unrestricted circulating shares for 99.264 million yuan, with subsequent auctions involving nearly 100 million yuan, which may impact the shareholder structure [3]. Company Structure and Governance - On January 6, 2026, the company announced the complete解除 of share pledges, resulting in a decrease in the proportion of frozen shares. Additionally, the governance structure has eliminated the supervisory board to enhance decision-making efficiency and share liquidity [4]. Industry Policy and Environment - The lithium battery sector is influenced by fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices and policy directions. The Tianfeng Metal New Materials team noted that the clearing of supply-side capacity in lithium could present structural opportunities, with the company's performance closely tied to lithium prices [5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company, Tibet Summit Resources (600338.SH), is primarily recognized for its traditional mining operations in lead and zinc, which remain its cash cow, while its lithium salt business is still in the early stages of development [1][2][3] - The company has significant lithium resources in Argentina, with the potential for large-scale production, but commercial production is not expected until 2026 [4][5] - The financial performance is strong, with projected net profit growth of 92%-135% in 2025, driven by traditional business operations [6][7][9] Summary by Sections Traditional Business Performance - Lead and zinc operations accounted for over 79% of total revenue in 2023, with lithium contributing only 9.7% [2][3] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.4 billion to 5.4 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [6] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected to increase by 381%, reaching 5.1 billion [7] Lithium Projects in Argentina - The company owns two major salt lakes in Argentina: the Angeles and Alizaro salt lakes, with estimated lithium resources of 205 million tons and at least 10 million tons, respectively [4] - The Angeles project is expected to begin production in 2026, while the Alizaro project is still in the early assessment phase [5] - The success of the Angeles project in 2026 will be a critical milestone for the company's future growth and market confidence [5][15] Financial Health and Future Outlook - The company's financial structure is robust, with a debt ratio of only 33.9% and interest-bearing debt at 2% [9][11] - The traditional business provides a solid cash flow foundation to support the capital-intensive lithium projects [11] - The market perception is shifting towards viewing the company as a strong player in both traditional mining and potential future lithium production [13][15]