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锂电行业深度报告:场景拓展打开增量空间,龙头引领固态技术升级
Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid expansion of lithium battery applications across various sectors, including electric two-wheelers, low-altitude economy, robotics, and RVs, with a projected CAGR of 18.08% from 2025 to 2030 for industrial and consumer drones [3] - It emphasizes the strong growth in energy storage and power batteries, driven by new application scenarios, with energy storage battery demand expected to reach 1384.00 GWh by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 39.07% from 2024 to 2028 [3] - The report notes the increasing concentration of resources towards leading companies, with second-tier firms seeking differentiated competition [3] Summary by Sections 1. Lithium-ion Batteries - Lithium batteries convert chemical energy to electrical energy through electrochemical reactions, involving the movement of lithium ions between the anode and cathode [9] - Lithium-ion batteries dominate the market, accounting for 67% of the global secondary battery market share in 2025, with a projected CAGR of 22.13% from 2024 to 2030 [12][16] - The lithium battery supply chain includes upstream resource extraction, midstream cell manufacturing, and downstream applications and recycling [9] 2. Demand - Global battery demand is expected to grow significantly, with total shipments projected to reach 4377.54 GWh by 2028, representing a CAGR of 28.91% from 2024 to 2028 [19] - Energy storage batteries are anticipated to see a substantial increase, with a projected shipment of 1384.00 GWh by 2028 [19] - The demand for power batteries is driven by the electrification of commercial vehicles and engineering machinery, with a forecasted shipment of 2859.62 GWh by 2028 [20] 3. Market Structure - The report indicates that the battery materials sector has the highest technical barriers and cost proportions, with cathode materials accounting for 51% of total battery costs [52] - The competitive landscape shows a stable market share among leading power battery companies, while the second-tier firms are experiencing rapid growth [3] - The report highlights the increasing concentration in the separator market, with leading companies benefiting from cost control and technological upgrades [3] 4. Investment Themes - The report suggests focusing on new application scenarios and technological advancements, particularly in solid-state battery industrialization led by major players [3] - It emphasizes the importance of price recovery and profitability improvement in the battery industry, with cell prices rebounding since 2025 [3] - The report provides a valuation summary of battery industry companies, indicating potential investment opportunities [3]