Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development and trends of the electric two-wheeler industry in China, focusing on the shared battery swapping model and the lithium battery market, highlighting the impact of policies, market dynamics, and technological advancements on growth opportunities and challenges in the sector [2][4][26]. Group 1: Electric Two-Wheeler Industry Development - The electric two-wheeler shipment volume in China is projected to reach 54 million units in 2025, driven by the implementation of "old-for-new" policies and increased exports [8][9]. - In 2024, the shipment volume of lithium electric two-wheelers is expected to be 4.62 million units, with significant growth attributed to exports [8][9]. - The shared electric two-wheeler market has evolved through various stages, including rapid development, policy tightening, and recent policy relaxation, indicating a shift towards a more supportive regulatory environment [9][15]. Group 2: Shared Electric Two-Wheeler - The shared electric two-wheeler market in China saw a 21.1% increase in new deployments in 2024, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [15]. - Major players in the shared electric two-wheeler market include Hello, Meituan, and Qingju, which collectively accounted for over 65% of new deployments in 2024 [15]. - The development of shared electric two-wheelers is supported by a growing acceptance of the shared economy model, with increasing demand for efficient urban mobility solutions [9][15]. Group 3: Battery Swapping for Electric Two-Wheelers - The battery swapping model is gaining traction due to its efficiency and safety advantages over traditional charging methods, with several cities implementing supportive policies [12][29]. - In 2024, the battery swapping market is expected to see a deployment of 1.51 million battery packs, with a projected increase in the coming years as policies become more favorable [25][29]. - The demand for battery swapping is particularly strong among delivery riders, who require quick and reliable battery solutions to meet their operational needs [16][19]. Group 4: Lithium Battery Market - The total shipment of lithium batteries for electric two-wheelers in China is projected to reach 9.42 million units in 2024, with a significant portion attributed to shared and swapping applications [48][49]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards lithium iron phosphate batteries due to their safety and longevity, while the share of ternary lithium batteries is gradually decreasing [49][52]. - The export market for lithium batteries is expanding, with a notable increase in demand from Southeast Asia and other regions, indicating a growing international presence for Chinese manufacturers [48][49]. Group 5: Industry Trends and Challenges - The electric two-wheeler industry is expected to benefit from supportive government policies aimed at promoting green transportation and improving safety standards [27][29]. - The market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with smaller players facing challenges due to stricter regulations and competition from larger, more established companies [27][29]. - The development of standardized battery specifications and interfaces is crucial for the growth of the battery swapping industry, facilitating interoperability and expanding service availability [29][30].