1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will undergo a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support at 31, and there is pressure at 33.5 above [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin pulled back from a high level, with a weekly gain or loss of - 4.62% and an amplitude of 9.82%. As of the close of this week, the main contract was quoted at 322,920 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: According to the minutes of the Fed meeting, "most" officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, while some advocate "holding steady for some time". The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones has been issued in advance [4]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply side**: The import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. At the smelting end, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, and the raw material inventories of most enterprises are still low. For most enterprises, it is in a loss - making situation, and it is expected that the output of refined tin will continue to be restricted, still lacking year - on - year increments. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about restricted supply in Indonesia. Recently, the import loss has been repaired. If the window opens later, the import supply pressure will increase significantly [4]. - **Demand side**: Recently, the price of tin has pulled back from a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot premium has remained at 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has fluctuated [4]. - **Technical - level**: Trading volume has increased while positions have decreased, the long - buying sentiment has declined, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Price**: This week, the futures price fell, and the spot premium remained stable. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 327,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13,110 yuan/ton or 3.85% compared with December 24. As of December 30, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 42,195 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1,032 US dollars/ton or 2.39% compared with December 22 [6][9]. - **Ratio**: As of December 31, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin - to - nickel price was 2.45, an increase of 0.23 compared with December 24. As of December 29, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.34, an increase of 0.32 compared with December 23 [13]. - **Position**: As of December 31, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 87,788 lots, a decrease of 20,845 lots or 19.19% compared with December 24. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was - 6,558 lots, a decrease of 5,187 lots compared with December 22, 2025 [18]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply side**: - **Tin ore import and refined tin production**: In November 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the refined tin output was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative refined tin output was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.25% [24][25]. - **Tin ore processing fee**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025 [30]. - **Refined tin import**: As of December 30, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 7,431.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,624.44 yuan/ton compared with December 24, 2025. In November 2025, the refined tin import volume was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin import was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin export was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36]. - **Inventory**: As of December 30, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 5,330 tons, an increase of 685 tons or 14.75% compared with December 19. As of December 31, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,936 tons, a decrease of 541 tons or 6.38% compared with last week. As of December 31, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 7,442 tons, a decrease of 889 tons or 10.67% compared with December 24 [39]. - **Demand side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 30, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,169.1, an increase of 23.53 or 0.33% compared with December 22. From January to November 2025, the integrated circuit output was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42][43]. - **Domestic tin - plated sheet export**: As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% compared with October 2025. As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet export volume was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% compared with October [46].