本文源自：金融界AI电报 费城半导体指数创下历史新高，最新上涨2.5%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will undergo a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support at 31, and there is pressure at 33.5 above [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin pulled back from a high level, with a weekly gain or loss of - 4.62% and an amplitude of 9.82%. As of the close of this week, the main contract was quoted at 322,920 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: According to the minutes of the Fed meeting, "most" officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, while some advocate "holding steady for some time". The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones has been issued in advance [4]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply side**: The import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. At the smelting end, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, and the raw material inventories of most enterprises are still low. For most enterprises, it is in a loss - making situation, and it is expected that the output of refined tin will continue to be restricted, still lacking year - on - year increments. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about restricted supply in Indonesia. Recently, the import loss has been repaired. If the window opens later, the import supply pressure will increase significantly [4]. - **Demand side**: Recently, the price of tin has pulled back from a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot premium has remained at 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has fluctuated [4]. - **Technical - level**: Trading volume has increased while positions have decreased, the long - buying sentiment has declined, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Price**: This week, the futures price fell, and the spot premium remained stable. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 327,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13,110 yuan/ton or 3.85% compared with December 24. As of December 30, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 42,195 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1,032 US dollars/ton or 2.39% compared with December 22 [6][9]. - **Ratio**: As of December 31, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin - to - nickel price was 2.45, an increase of 0.23 compared with December 24. As of December 29, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.34, an increase of 0.32 compared with December 23 [13]. - **Position**: As of December 31, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 87,788 lots, a decrease of 20,845 lots or 19.19% compared with December 24. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was - 6,558 lots, a decrease of 5,187 lots compared with December 22, 2025 [18]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply side**: - **Tin ore import and refined tin production**: In November 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the refined tin output was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative refined tin output was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.25% [24][25]. - **Tin ore processing fee**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025 [30]. - **Refined tin import**: As of December 30, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 7,431.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,624.44 yuan/ton compared with December 24, 2025. In November 2025, the refined tin import volume was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin import was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin export was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36]. - **Inventory**: As of December 30, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 5,330 tons, an increase of 685 tons or 14.75% compared with December 19. As of December 31, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,936 tons, a decrease of 541 tons or 6.38% compared with last week. As of December 31, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 7,442 tons, a decrease of 889 tons or 10.67% compared with December 24 [39]. - **Demand side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 30, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,169.1, an increase of 23.53 or 0.33% compared with December 22. From January to November 2025, the integrated circuit output was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42][43]. - **Domestic tin - plated sheet export**: As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% compared with October 2025. As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet export volume was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% compared with October [46].

格隆汇12月30日｜费城半导体指数小幅高开，现涨0.4%，阿斯麦涨1.6%，美光科技涨1.1%，台积电涨 1%。 ...

费城半导体指数下跌1%，即将终结连续六个交易日的上涨势头。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

费城半导体指数日内大涨超3%，美光科技涨超15%，超威半导体涨超3%，安森美半导体涨超2%。 (本文来自第一财经) 来源：第一财经 ...

Report Title - "2025.12.12 Weekly Report on Shanghai Tin Market: Macroeconomic Improvement Boosts Sentiment, Anticipating Strong Adjustment in Tin Prices" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai tin market is expected to undergo a short - term strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance at the 345,000 level [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main Shanghai tin contract continued to rise significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.88% and an amplitude of 8.76%. The closing price of the main contract was 333,000 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, and various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, resolve local government debt risks, and boost consumption [5] - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline [5] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers show purchasing interest when tin prices decline, but rising prices suppress transactions. Inventory has increased slightly [5] - **Technical - level**: There is a significant increase in trading volume and open interest, and the market sentiment is bullish [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 332,720 yuan/ton, up 4.98% from December 5. As of December 11, the closing price of LME tin was 41,880 US dollars/ton, up 3.31% from December 5. The basis of Shanghai tin was 0 yuan/ton, down from 150 yuan/ton last week [10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.86, an increase of 0.16 from December 5. As of December 11, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.61, a decrease of 0.17 from December 4 [14] - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1960 lots, an increase of 2168 lots from December 8. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 118,433 lots, an increase of 10,033 lots or 9.26% from December 5 [19] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 103,020.65 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. The refined tin production in October was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Processing Fees**: On December 12, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, and that for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from December 11 [31] - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 11, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 2,471.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,186.86 yuan/ton from December 5. In October, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75% [34][35] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,695 tons, an increase of 520 tons or 16.38% from December 4. As of December 12, the inventory of Shanghai tin was 7,391 tons, an increase of 526 tons or 7.66% from last week [43] - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On December 11, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,411.48, an increase of 2.71% from December 4 [46] - **Integrated Circuit Output**: From January to October 2025, the integrated circuit output was 386.6 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [47] - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. The export volume was 222,589.82 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.63% [50]

本文源自：金融界AI电报 费城半导体指数创下历史新高，上涨1%。 ...

Core Insights - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has reached an all-time high, with a recent increase of 2.1% [1] Industry Summary - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth, as indicated by the record performance of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced a 2.3% increase at the beginning of trading, indicating positive market sentiment towards semiconductor companies [1] Company Performance - AMD saw a significant rise of over 6% in its stock price [1] - Intel's stock increased by more than 5% [1] - Micron Technology's shares rose by over 3% [1] - Broadcom's stock experienced an increase of over 2% [1]

Group 1 - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.6% [1] - Micron Technology and Intel both increased by over 3%, with Micron's stock price reaching a historical high [1] - Western Digital also saw an increase of over 2% [1]