1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will undergo a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support at 31, and there is pressure at 33.5 above [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin pulled back from a high level, with a weekly gain or loss of - 4.62% and an amplitude of 9.82%. As of the close of this week, the main contract was quoted at 322,920 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: According to the minutes of the Fed meeting, "most" officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, while some advocate "holding steady for some time". The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones has been issued in advance [4]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply side**: The import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. At the smelting end, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, and the raw material inventories of most enterprises are still low. For most enterprises, it is in a loss - making situation, and it is expected that the output of refined tin will continue to be restricted, still lacking year - on - year increments. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about restricted supply in Indonesia. Recently, the import loss has been repaired. If the window opens later, the import supply pressure will increase significantly [4]. - **Demand side**: Recently, the price of tin has pulled back from a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot premium has remained at 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has fluctuated [4]. - **Technical - level**: Trading volume has increased while positions have decreased, the long - buying sentiment has declined, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Price**: This week, the futures price fell, and the spot premium remained stable. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 327,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13,110 yuan/ton or 3.85% compared with December 24. As of December 30, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 42,195 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1,032 US dollars/ton or 2.39% compared with December 22 [6][9]. - **Ratio**: As of December 31, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin - to - nickel price was 2.45, an increase of 0.23 compared with December 24. As of December 29, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.34, an increase of 0.32 compared with December 23 [13]. - **Position**: As of December 31, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 87,788 lots, a decrease of 20,845 lots or 19.19% compared with December 24. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was - 6,558 lots, a decrease of 5,187 lots compared with December 22, 2025 [18]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply side**: - **Tin ore import and refined tin production**: In November 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the refined tin output was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative refined tin output was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.25% [24][25]. - **Tin ore processing fee**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025 [30]. - **Refined tin import**: As of December 30, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 7,431.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,624.44 yuan/ton compared with December 24, 2025. In November 2025, the refined tin import volume was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin import was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin export was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36]. - **Inventory**: As of December 30, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 5,330 tons, an increase of 685 tons or 14.75% compared with December 19. As of December 31, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,936 tons, a decrease of 541 tons or 6.38% compared with last week. As of December 31, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 7,442 tons, a decrease of 889 tons or 10.67% compared with December 24 [39]. - **Demand side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 30, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,169.1, an increase of 23.53 or 0.33% compared with December 22. From January to November 2025, the integrated circuit output was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42][43]. - **Domestic tin - plated sheet export**: As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% compared with October 2025. As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet export volume was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% compared with October [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomically, the US added more non - farm jobs than expected in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly reached a four - year high, not significantly changing expectations of Fed rate cuts [3] - Fundamentally, on the supply side, domestic tin ore imports are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, but overall imports are still low. On the smelting side, raw materials are scarce, and most enterprises' raw material inventories are low, with production expected to be restricted. In terms of imports, Indonesia's exports increased in November, but domestic imports remain unprofitable, and import volumes are expected to stay low. On the demand side, tin prices have recently adjusted, market trading has warmed up, and LME inventories have increased significantly [3] - Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is expected that Shanghai tin will adjust at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 328,600 yuan/ton, up 7,980 yuan; the closing price of the January - February contract is down 740 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 40,955 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 32,130 lots, down 155 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 498 lots, down 234 lots. LME tin total inventory is 3,815 tons, up 20 tons, and the LME tin cancelled warrants are 155 tons, down 5 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,391 tons, up 526 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt is 7,497 tons, up 34 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 325,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 325,580 yuan/ton, up 7,040 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 120 yuan/ton, up 3,170 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 56 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 313,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 317,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 208,930 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons, up 14.47 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - US employment continues to cool: non - farm payrolls rebounded slightly in November, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high, and traders expect two rate cuts next year. The "New Fed News Agency" said that the non - farm data is unlikely to significantly change the Fed's judgment on whether to cut rates again. The US Markit Composite PMI in December hit a six - month low, with a sharp rise in price indicators and weak employment indicators. The eurozone manufacturing PMI in December contracted at an accelerated pace, with Germany hitting a 10 - month low and France and Italy back in the expansion range. The Central Financial Office said that investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control increments and revitalize stocks [3]

Report Title - "2025.12.12 Weekly Report on Shanghai Tin Market: Macroeconomic Improvement Boosts Sentiment, Anticipating Strong Adjustment in Tin Prices" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai tin market is expected to undergo a short - term strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance at the 345,000 level [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main Shanghai tin contract continued to rise significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.88% and an amplitude of 8.76%. The closing price of the main contract was 333,000 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, and various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, resolve local government debt risks, and boost consumption [5] - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline [5] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers show purchasing interest when tin prices decline, but rising prices suppress transactions. Inventory has increased slightly [5] - **Technical - level**: There is a significant increase in trading volume and open interest, and the market sentiment is bullish [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 332,720 yuan/ton, up 4.98% from December 5. As of December 11, the closing price of LME tin was 41,880 US dollars/ton, up 3.31% from December 5. The basis of Shanghai tin was 0 yuan/ton, down from 150 yuan/ton last week [10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.86, an increase of 0.16 from December 5. As of December 11, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.61, a decrease of 0.17 from December 4 [14] - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1960 lots, an increase of 2168 lots from December 8. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 118,433 lots, an increase of 10,033 lots or 9.26% from December 5 [19] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 103,020.65 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. The refined tin production in October was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Processing Fees**: On December 12, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, and that for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from December 11 [31] - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 11, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 2,471.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,186.86 yuan/ton from December 5. In October, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75% [34][35] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,695 tons, an increase of 520 tons or 16.38% from December 4. As of December 12, the inventory of Shanghai tin was 7,391 tons, an increase of 526 tons or 7.66% from last week [43] - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On December 11, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,411.48, an increase of 2.71% from December 4 [46] - **Integrated Circuit Output**: From January to October 2025, the integrated circuit output was 386.6 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [47] - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. The export volume was 222,589.82 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.63% [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai tin market is expected to fluctuate upward, with attention on the resistance levels between 305,000 and 310,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.73% and an amplitude of 5.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 305,040 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in October decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months [5]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: - **Supply**: Domestic tin ore imports are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume is still low. The supply disruption in Congo (Kinshasa) has increased supply concerns. The output of refined tin has rebounded, but due to the shortage of tin ore raw materials and low processing fees, the output is expected to be limited [5]. - **Import**: Indonesia's export volume in October was far lower than expected, and the domestic import is in a loss state, so the import volume of tin is expected to decline [5]. - **Demand**: Some downstream and terminal enterprises made small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases due to concerns about the continuous rise of tin prices, while others remained on the sidelines. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the spot premium dropped to - 300 yuan/ton; LME inventories increased slightly, and the spot premium rose [5]. - **Technical - aspect**: The price rose with increasing volume and positions, and the bullish sentiment heated up [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 304,060 yuan/ton, up 13,320 yuan/ton or 4.58% from November 21. As of November 27, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 37,925 US dollars/ton, up 890 US dollars/ton or 2.4% from November 21 [7][10]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of November 28, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.57, an increase of 0.02 from November 21. As of November 27, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.95, up 0.06 from November 20 [14]. - **Position Changes**: As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1,766 lots, a decrease of 79 lots from November 24. The position of Shanghai tin was 99,560 lots, an increase of 20,989 lots or 26.71% from November 21 [18]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply - side - **Tin Ore Import and Output**: In October 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 103,019.35 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. In October 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On November 28, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 27; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from November 27 [30]. - **Refined Tin Import**: As of November 28, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 6,821.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,802.72 yuan/ton from November 21. In October 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 19,034.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.79%. In October 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1480.43 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.56%. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was 18,574.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.44% [35][36]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,125 tons, an increase of 60 tons or 1.96% from November 20. As of November 28, 2025, the total tin inventory was 6,359 tons, an increase of 130 tons or 2.09% from last week. The tin inventory for futures was 6,263 tons, an increase of 357 tons or 6.04% from November 21 [42]. Demand - side - **Semiconductor Index**: On November 26, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 6,899.46, up 229.43 or 3.44% from November 19. From January to October 2025, the output of integrated circuits was 386.6 billion pieces, an increase of 33.60064 billion pieces or 9.52% compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Tin - plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the output of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 10% from September. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 222,589.82 tons, an increase of 24,965.4 tons or 12.63% from September [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate upwards, and attention should be paid to the resistance level at 305,000 yuan/ton. The market shows a bullish atmosphere with increasing volume, open interest, and price. However, the downstream has low acceptance of current high prices and is mostly in a wait - and - see state. There are still concerns about tin ore supply, and smelting production is restricted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 302,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,320 yuan/ton. The closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai Tin is - 360 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month tin price is 38,090 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 395 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 54,843 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 10,116 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,812 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 943 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,125 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,229 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of tin is 6,219 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 34 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 301,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 302,640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,870 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 590 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 86 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 49 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 289,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 293,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 194,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,000 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tinplate (strip) is 1.2454 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1361 million tons. The monthly export volume of tinplate is 222,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, but some people point out an increased risk of slower economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest in seven months. The initial value of US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month as expected, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9% more than expected [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Situation - The first batch of reopened mines in Myanmar's Wa State has entered the production capacity ramp - up period. However, two tin mines in Malaysia have suspended production, and the production in Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly. Africa is about to enter the rainy season, so there are still concerns about tin ore supply. Indonesia's refined tin exports decreased significantly in October, alleviating the previous concerns about supply growth. In the smelting end, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level, so the production of refined tin is still restricted. On the demand side, there is only a small amount of rigid demand procurement, and the downstream has a low acceptance of current high prices and is basically in a wait - and - see state. The domestic inventory has increased slightly, with a spot premium of 200 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium has risen [3].