镍矿市场分析

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不锈钢:宏观情绪改善盘面上涨 基本面弱势未改
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-26 02:13
Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed trend with slight price increases in the spot market, but overall demand remains weak, leading to a cautious outlook for the industry [3]. Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices are under pressure, with Philippine 1.3% nickel ore trading at FOB 36 and Indonesian nickel ore at CIF 45. The domestic benchmark price for Indonesian nickel ore is expected to decrease by $0.3 to $0.5 [1]. - Nickel iron prices have dropped, with a high nickel iron procurement price of 910 yuan per nickel reported, marking a new low since 1999. Steel mills are adopting a price-cutting strategy for nickel ore procurement due to cost pressures [1]. - Chrome ore prices are weak, and demand from downstream sectors is poor, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from traders [1]. Supply - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to be 3.3623 million tons in June, a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% but a year-on-year increase of 2.24%. The 300 series production is expected to increase slightly [1]. - In May, the production from 43 domestic stainless steel mills was 3.4629 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.96% but a year-on-year increase of 4.94% [1]. Inventory - Social inventory data shows a slight increase, with 300 series social inventory at 534,200 tons as of June 20, up by 3,400 tons week-on-week. However, stainless steel futures inventory decreased to 112,867 tons, down by 4,112 tons week-on-week [2]. Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is currently facing seasonal demand weakness and insufficient macroeconomic stimulus. The upcoming National Development and Reform Commission press conference is expected to provide insights into infrastructure project progress [3]. - The overall market sentiment has improved slightly, but the fundamental conditions remain weak, with slow demand recovery and high stainless steel supply levels [3].