Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel futures market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, mainly driven by the weakening sentiment in the broader market. The anti - involution sentiment declined, and factors such as the US dollar index, US copper tariffs, and China - US economic and trade talks temporarily suppressed the market. - The price of nickel ore from the Philippines has loosened due to improved rainfall in major mining areas and a seasonal increase in domestic nickel ore arrivals. In Indonesia, the first - phase nickel ore benchmark price in August has increased, but the improvement in premium is limited. - The price of nickel sulfate remained firm this week. It is currently the restocking period for some precursor factories, and nickel salt factories have a certain price - holding sentiment. - The price of ferronickel continued to correct this week. If ferronickel prices continue to rise, the supply of ice - nickel and pure nickel is expected to decrease, which will strongly support the price increase of ferronickel. - The stainless steel market also showed a weak and volatile trend, but the decline was limited. The cost support of ferronickel has strengthened, and the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station is expected to boost the demand for high - end stainless steel. Stainless steel has been continuously destocked, and spot transactions have improved. Some steel mills may increase production in August. - It is expected that nickel will fluctuate in the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan, and stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - The main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated weakly, closing at 119,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,850 yuan or 1.52% from the previous week. The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [2][4][6]. 3.2. Industrial Performance - **Spot Market**: The price of Jinchuan nickel was 121,850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 2,250 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,370 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from MHP was adjusted to 0%. The average ex - factory price of 304/2B cut - edge stainless steel was 12,700 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of 304 stainless steel cold - rolling decreased to about - 4.74% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25,750 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,082 tons. The social inventory of stainless steel was 982,700 tons, and the inventory of ferronickel was 33,415 tons. The ex - factory price of 8% - 12% high - nickel pig iron was adjusted to 912.5 yuan/nickel point [2]. 3.3. Core Logic - **Nickel**: Affected by the broader market sentiment, the nickel market was under pressure. The improvement in the supply of Philippine nickel ore and the increase in the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price had different impacts on the market. The price of nickel sulfate was firm, and the trend of ferronickel was crucial for the supply of pure nickel [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: Although the market was weak, multiple factors limited the decline. The cost support of ferronickel, the expected increase in demand from the hydropower station, and the destocking trend provided some support. The production plans of steel mills in August need to be closely monitored [3]. 3.4. Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel and other contracts showed a decline in price, with a decrease in trading volume and a change in open interest and basis [4][5]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The main contract of stainless steel remained stable, while other contracts had slight fluctuations. Trading volume and open interest decreased, and the basis remained unchanged [6]. - **Nickel Spot**: The prices of various nickel products such as Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, and electrolytic nickel all declined [7]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased, LME nickel inventory increased, stainless steel social inventory decreased slightly, and ferronickel inventory increased [8].

镍&不锈钢：短期多空交织，关注底部支撑 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.7-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | 管理 | 值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担 心原料价格上涨 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面 | 远月沪镍合约 | 买入 | 依 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed trend with slight price increases in the spot market, but overall demand remains weak, leading to a cautious outlook for the industry [3]. Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices are under pressure, with Philippine 1.3% nickel ore trading at FOB 36 and Indonesian nickel ore at CIF 45. The domestic benchmark price for Indonesian nickel ore is expected to decrease by $0.3 to $0.5 [1]. - Nickel iron prices have dropped, with a high nickel iron procurement price of 910 yuan per nickel reported, marking a new low since 1999. Steel mills are adopting a price-cutting strategy for nickel ore procurement due to cost pressures [1]. - Chrome ore prices are weak, and demand from downstream sectors is poor, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from traders [1]. Supply - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to be 3.3623 million tons in June, a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% but a year-on-year increase of 2.24%. The 300 series production is expected to increase slightly [1]. - In May, the production from 43 domestic stainless steel mills was 3.4629 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.96% but a year-on-year increase of 4.94% [1]. Inventory - Social inventory data shows a slight increase, with 300 series social inventory at 534,200 tons as of June 20, up by 3,400 tons week-on-week. However, stainless steel futures inventory decreased to 112,867 tons, down by 4,112 tons week-on-week [2]. Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is currently facing seasonal demand weakness and insufficient macroeconomic stimulus. The upcoming National Development and Reform Commission press conference is expected to provide insights into infrastructure project progress [3]. - The overall market sentiment has improved slightly, but the fundamental conditions remain weak, with slow demand recovery and high stainless steel supply levels [3].

镍&不锈钢：短期仍以震荡为主 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.9-12.9 | 13.67% | 0.4% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 理 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担心原料价格上 涨 | 根据生产 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term nickel futures market shows a weak and volatile trend. The fundamental logic of the market currently dominates, and the impact of macro - sentiment has diminished. There is an expectation of increased supply in nickel ore, and the support at the bottom is weakening. However, the nickel - iron price has stopped falling and may provide some support. The new - energy sector may experience a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies at the macro level [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the China - US trade tariff agreement, the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, the implementation of the new Indonesian resource tax on April 26, and the increase in the expectation of interest - rate cuts due to the US CPI data falling short of expectations. Negative factors include the increase in ore supply at the end of the Philippine rainy season, the weakening support of the MHP - nickel sulfate link, the continued negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry, and the high inventory and lack of demand in the stainless - steel market [4]. Group 3: Specific Summaries 1. Nickel Price and Management Strategies - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.71% and a historical percentile of 0.4% [2]. - For inventory management, when there is a risk of product price decline and inventory impairment, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels (60% hedging ratio) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio) to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines [2]. - For procurement management, when there are future production procurement needs and concerns about rising raw - material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2]. 2. Nickel and Stainless - Steel Disk Data - **Nickel Disk**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 123,280 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of other contracts such as Shanghai nickel continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three have increased by 0.33%. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,530 US dollars/ton, up 0.39%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, while the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 0.55%. The basis of the main contract remained unchanged [5]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,870 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of other contracts such as stainless - steel continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three increased by 0.23% - 0.31%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, while the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 0.50%. The basis of the main contract increased by 15.28% [6]. 3. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 44,151 tons, an increase of 63 tons. The LME nickel inventory is 201,786 tons, a decrease of 312 tons. The stainless - steel social inventory is 980.7 tons, a decrease of 8.4 tons. The nickel - pig - iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [7].

Report Title - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday market showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The fundamental logic of the market is becoming more prominent. There is an expectation of increased supply in the nickel ore market as the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines weakens. The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, which may provide some support. The new energy chain may face a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. The impact of subsequent tariff policies on the macro - level should be closely monitored [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 13.64% and a historical percentile of 0.2% [2] - **Inventory Management Strategies**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has a risk of devaluation, short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks (60% hedging ratio), and sell call options (50% hedging ratio) [2] - **Procurement Management Strategies**: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2] 2. Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Reaching a tariff agreement between China and the United States, the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, the implementation of a new resource tax in Indonesia on April 26th leading to an overall increase in cost, and the lower - than - expected US CPI data increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts [4] - **Negative Factors**: The end of the rainy season in the Philippines leading to increased ore supply, the weakening support of the MHP nickel sulfate chain, the continued negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry with the cost support at the nickel - iron end continuously declining, and the high stainless - steel inventory with no obvious improvement in demand [4] 3. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 122,870 yuan/ton (0% change), and the LME nickel 3M price is 15,500 US dollars/ton (- 0.86% change). The trading volume is 109,167 lots (0% change), the open interest is 63,519 lots (0% change), the warehouse receipt quantity is 23,142 tons (- 1.40% change), and the basis of the main contract is - 1,735 yuan/ton (- 9.2% change) [5] - **Stainless - Steel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,840 yuan/ton (0% change). The trading volume is 133,035 lots (0% change), the open interest is 128,677 lots (0% change), the warehouse receipt quantity is 143,780 tons (- 8.05% change), and the basis of the main contract is 720 yuan/ton (2.13% change) [6] - **Nickel Industry Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory is 44,151 tons (+ 63 tons), the LME nickel inventory is 202,098 tons (+ 90 tons), the stainless - steel social inventory is 980.7 tons (- 8.4 tons), and the nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons (+ 1,158 tons) [7]