2025 年 11月 23 日 放缓,宏观与消息短线扰动 市奉 稍有 不锈钢基本面:不锈钢基本面偏弱,下方想象力亦有限。在宏观边际影响的角度,纽约联储主席威廉 姆斯和美联储理事米兰发表鸽派言论,市场预期的 12 月降息概率月内跌幅回升了一半。从基本面来看, 现实走入谈季,上游库存绝对量偏高,终端制造业投资增速下移,她产后周期消费仍显疲软,终端补贴政 策效益进城,弱需求导致市场悲观情绪偏重,采购仍然较为谨慎,且 12 和 1 月到期仓单较多,整体基本 面缺乏上行驱动。同时,由于供应弹性饱满,不锈钢向上缺乏想象空间。从供需平衡来看,在不锈钢转为 低估值后,供需由供强需弱转向供需双弱,呈现轻微过剩,但过剩幅度较往年明显收敛。从成本角度来看, 镍铁重新回到累库,镍铁端让利给下游钢厂,矛盾在操铁环节积累,市场成交回落至 880 元/镍附近,但 是参照镍铁成本曲线,下方空间已难言广阔,不锈钢盘面再低位追空的性价比不高。同时,不锈钢亦存在 对印尼政策的担忧,近期印尼在 2026年的配额量级尚不明确,印尼能矿部也表示对明年或可能削减配额, 低位追空存在一定的风险。因此,不锈钢或呈现基本面偏弱施压,而下方想象力有限的格局,同时 ...

镍不锈钢产业链周报 2025/11/21 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

镍铁价格崩塌， 不锈钢持续下跌 不锈钢周报 2025/11/22 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 03 供给端 06 成本端 周度评估及策略推荐 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 目录 周度要点小结 | | 交易策略建议 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 策略类型 | 操作建议 | 盈亏比 | 推荐周期 | 核心驱动逻辑 | 推荐等级 | 首次提出时间 | | 单边 | 观望 | | | | | | | 套利 | 观望 | | | | | | 期现市场 期现市场 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，11月21日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报12700元/吨，环比+0.00%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为890元/镍，环比-2.20%； 废不锈钢均价报8500元/吨，环比-1.17%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价12290元/吨，环比-0.73%。 供给 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月22日，国际铜夜盘收涨0.13%，沪铜收涨0.21%，沪铝收跌0.35%，沪锌收跌0.60%， 沪铅收跌0.38%，沪镍收涨0.20%，沪锡收跌0.18%。氧化铝夜盘收跌0.07%，铝合金收跌0.27%。不锈钢 夜盘收跌0.49%。 ...

来源：上期所发布 〔2025〕145号 近期，我所收到酒泉钢铁（集团）有限责任公司等6家不锈钢期货注册企业变更产品标牌的申请，根据 《上海期货交易所钢材交割商品注册管理规定》等有关规定以及《上海期货交易所不锈钢期货合约》 《上海期货交易所不锈钢期货业务细则》相关要求，经研究决定： 一、同意酒泉钢铁（集团）有限责任公司等6家不锈钢期货注册企业变更产品标牌，详见附件。 二、自公告之日起，使用新产品标牌的产品可生成标准仓单。 特此公告。 ...

供需格局施压镍价"摇摇欲坠" 镍价下跌的核心驱动力源于供需关系的根本性转变。供应端来看，国内与印尼的纯镍产能正处于扩张周 期，2015年1-10月国内精炼镍累计产量达35.06万吨，同比增长35.63%，尽管受限于价格下跌企业生产 积极性下滑导致排产减少，但同比增长状态难改，供应压力导致镍价短期难有反弹动力。 印尼作为全球镍供应的关键引擎，2025年RKAB采矿配额已批准3.64亿湿吨，较年初增加22%，按85% 开采效率测算，实际供应将达3亿湿吨，远超2.6亿湿吨的市场需求。供应过剩直接导致全球镍库存大幅 累积，LME镍库存更是接近2021年峰值，对价格形成强力压制。镍价易跌难涨走势导致不锈钢市场持 续承压。 继钼铁持续下跌之后，近期镍铁价格也进入了下行通道。在此背景下，指导性钢厂主动下调不锈钢价格 更是引发市场担忧。目前来看，镍铁价格下跌走势暂无止跌机会，短期不锈钢价格承压难改。 成本走弱钢招成迷引担忧 从产业链关联来看，镍与不锈钢的长期高度相关性决定了成本传导的必然性。而指导性钢厂的镍铁钢招 价格迟迟不公布，导致商家情绪偏空，镍铁价格也跌至900元／镍附近。以304为例，常规304不锈钢含 镍量约8%- ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PR, BR rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, asphalt, short - term corn, M05 of soybean meal, PVC, PP, some petrochemical products [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Index, Treasury bonds, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, precious metals, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, silicon carbide, glass, pure alkali, coking coal, coke, cotton, pulp, logs, crude oil, fuel oil, short - term soybean oil, long - term tin [1] 2. Core Views - The current macro environment is in a relatively vacuum period. A - share lacks a clear upward trend, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation has cooled down, affecting the prices of various commodities, but different commodities have different responses based on their own fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Index**: Short - term market differences will be digested during fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for upward movement [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the rise [1] Commodity Markets - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cooling affects prices. Copper price decline is limited; aluminum price fluctuates at a high level; zinc has support below; nickel price fluctuates downward; stainless steel needs to pay attention to production; tin is bullish in the long - term [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound; PTA production declines; ethylene glycol is affected by multiple factors; PP and PVC are bearish; LPG fundamentals are stable [1] - **Agricultural Products**: New energy vehicle demand is strong, but lithium carbonate has upward pressure; cotton market is in a state of "support but no driver"; corn, soybean meal, and other grains have different price trends; pulp and logs have limited upward space; livestock products such as pigs have over - capacity issues [1] - **Building Materials and Metals**: Rebar and iron ore are affected by supply and demand and macro factors; coking coal and coke are affected by steel prices and supply - demand relationships; glass and pure alkali have limited upward space [1] - **Fuel and Oil Products**: Crude oil price fluctuates; fuel oil follows crude oil; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound [1]

| 业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 | 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月21日 | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | | | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 品种 | | | | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9550 | 9450 | 100 | 1.06% | 墓差 (通室S15530章准) | 475 | 60 | 415 | 691.67% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9750 | 9800 | 50 | 0.51% | 元/吨 | 基差 (Sl4210基准) | -75 | -440 | 82.95% | 365 | | 新疆99硅 | 9000 | 8850 | 1.69% | 120 | 基差(新疆) | 725 | 260 | 465 | 178.85% | | | 月间价差 | 合约 | ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated November 21, 2025, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Undergoing a volatile adjustment [2]. - Copper: Risk sentiment remains weak, and prices are oscillating [2]. - Zinc: Subject to macro - level disturbances [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory restricts price decline [2]. - Tin: Prices are falling from high levels [2]. - Aluminum: Affected by macro - level disturbances [2]. - Alumina: Trading within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure to move in a volatile manner [2]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is limited [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 932.56, with a daily decline of 0.47%. The night - session closing price was 933.90, down 0.66%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4 to 1,039.43. Comex gold inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 255,568 to 36,969,176 troy ounces [4]. - **News**: In September, the US non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, a four - year high [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [4]. Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 12,046, down 0.81%. The night - session closing price was 11,967, down 1.34%. SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 20 to 15,246.63. Comex silver inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 3,005,099 to 462,530,023 troy ounces [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [4]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 86,130, up 0.02%. The night - session closing price was 85,920, down 0.24%. Peru's copper production in September increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 240,995 tons. China's refined copper imports in October decreased by 13.62% month - on - month [8][10]. - **News**: The US non - farm payrolls in September and unemployment rate data had an impact on the market. The Dutch government suspended intervention in Nexperia [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [10]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17,220, down 0.17%. Shanghai Lead's futures inventory decreased by 650 tons to 30,556 tons [14]. - **News**: Similar to other commodities, affected by US employment data [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [15]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 292,030, down 0.46%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 1,500 to 282,800 [18]. - **News**: Affected by macro - level news such as US employment and AI - related policies [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Aluminum - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 21,530, down 40. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 5,489.26, up 24.58 [21]. - **News**: As of the week ending November 15, the number of initial jobless claims decreased, but the number of continued claims reached a new high since October 2021. The Fed's internal hawkish - dovish divergence reappeared [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23]. Alumina - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2,732, down 8 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20,780, down 35 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 115,380, down 270. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 895, down 3 [25]. - **News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel mine area, and China suspended a non - official subsidy for imports of copper and nickel from Russia [25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [29]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,285, down 50 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is in a situation of high inventory and oversupply, and the nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market faces low demand, high inventory, and a continuous downward shift in cost, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 115,750 yuan/ton and closed at 115,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.23% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 124,692 (+42,129) lots, and the open interest was 152,848 (12,764) lots. It showed a weak and oscillating downward trend. The uncertainty of the Fed's policy increased, the probability of a December interest rate cut was less than 50%, the US dollar strengthened, and the supply - demand relationship became looser with rising inventory, leading to a clear short - term downward trend [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price remained stable. In the Philippines, the 1.4% nickel ore tender of Eramen landed at $42/wet ton, and the 1.25% nickel ore tender of Benguet had no deal. The nickel - iron tender price of downstream mainstream steel mills reached a new low of 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and iron plants were not very motivated to produce and mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude towards raw material procurement. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November dropped by $0.12 - 0.2/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 119,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream buyers made purchases mainly for rigid demand, and the overall spot transaction was okay. The premiums of Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, and nickel beans were 4,100 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, and 2,450 yuan/ton respectively. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 34,631 (- 793) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,172 (-1,674) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 20, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,330 yuan/ton and closed at 12,285 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,724 (+31,045) lots, and the open interest was 192,398 (-4,171) lots. The price basically followed the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing an oscillating downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel price, there was still no sign of price rebound [3]. - **Spot**: The price continued to decline and reached a historical low, the market sentiment was even more sluggish, and the transaction was light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The SMM data showed that the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 894.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].