长期资本市场假设(LTCMA)

Search documents
摩根资产管理恩学海: 多元配置破解低利率困局 探索“固收+”新解法
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-03 19:47
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing recognition among investors of the importance of global asset allocation to diversify risks and enhance multiple sources of returns in the context of declining domestic interest rates [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Morgan Yingyuan Stable Three-Month Holding Period Mixed FOF was officially launched on August 4, managed by Chief Investment Officer En Xuehai and Fund Manager Wu Chunjie, with En having nearly 30 years of investment research experience [1]. - The fund aims to explore a new "fixed income plus" solution for the Chinese market through a strategy of "bond foundation + overseas diversified asset enhancement" [1]. Group 2: Strategic Framework - The fund's allocation framework is based on a long-term capital market assumption (LTCMA) system, which has been tested and refined over 29 years, providing guidance for strategic asset allocation by predicting the risk-return characteristics of various asset classes over the next 10-15 years [2]. - En Xuehai noted that the combination of "bond foundation + overseas diversified assets" has a lower correlation than a simple "stock-bond mix," effectively reducing overall portfolio volatility [2]. Group 3: Risk Diversification - A rigorous screening mechanism has been established to select funds, with a focus on a "core + satellite" strategy for bond investments, selecting actively managed bond funds as core holdings while using bond ETFs for flexible adjustments [3]. - The screening process involves three layers: initial screening to eliminate low-scale and high-concentration funds, behavioral scanning to identify stable duration and credit characteristics, and platform validation to ensure strong active management capabilities [3]. Group 4: Equity Investment Strategy - For equity investments, a "quantitative first, qualitative second" screening system has been established, employing a combination of holding and net value analysis for domestic active equity funds, while monitoring premium rates and liquidity indicators for QDII products [4]. Group 5: Investor Education - The core value of FOF is to allow investors to focus on matching their risk preferences while leaving the rest to professional allocation, emphasizing the importance of understanding one's risk tolerance rather than merely selecting funds [6]. - En Xuehai believes that the current global environment of continued monetary easing and fiscal stimulus is likely to improve risk appetite, with expectations of rising inflation in the U.S. and a stable domestic market [6].
摩根资产管理恩学海:通过科学配置争取相对稳定的投资回报
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-07-27 13:57
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of scientific asset allocation to achieve stable investment returns in the current market environment, highlighting that single-asset investments are insufficient for sustained returns [1][2]. Group 1: Transition in Asset Management - The Chinese asset management industry is undergoing a significant transformation from a single product focus to a solution-oriented approach, moving away from traditional reliance on historical performance of stocks and bonds [2]. - Morgan Asset Management's multi-asset allocation system is built on three core pillars: global asset coverage capability, a scientific asset allocation framework, and a refined risk management system [2]. Group 2: Global Perspective and Framework - As a global asset management platform, Morgan Asset Management has specialized research teams covering various asset classes, enabling cross-market collaboration for informed investment decisions [2]. - The "Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" (LTCMA) report evaluates the risk-return characteristics of various assets over a 10 to 15-year horizon, aiding in the construction of strategic asset allocation plans [2]. Group 3: Risk Management - Morgan Asset Management has established a comprehensive risk management system, including risk parity models and stress testing, to ensure portfolio stability under various market conditions [3]. - The core principle of multi-asset investment is not to predict the market but to achieve relatively stable returns through scientific allocation [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - In fixed income investments, Morgan Asset Management employs a systematic "core + satellite" strategy, selecting actively managed bond funds as core holdings while using duration tools for market opportunities [4]. - For equity investments, a "quantitative-first, qualitative-second" selection system is in place, utilizing different analytical methods for domestic and QDII products [4]. Group 5: Pension System Analysis - The article discusses the synergistic role of a three-pillar pension system: basic pension insurance provides foundational security, enterprise annuities enforce mandatory savings, and personal retirement funds focus on wealth appreciation [5]. - An ideal retirement investment strategy is likened to an autonomous vehicle, where investors set retirement age and expected living standards, and the system automatically matches optimal investment solutions [5].