2026 年 01 月 10 日 FOF 基金: 2025 年度策略回顾 2026 年度策略展望 相关研究 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 规模维度：2025 年规模逆势回升，累计规模已超过 2021 年末水平。1）从数量来看, 2025 年 FOF 新发产品数量有明显提升，2025 年内共计新发 FOF93 只，对比去年 38 只 的新发数量明显上升; 2) FOF 总规模逆势回升, 2025 年内 FOF 规模累计 2383.76 亿 元, 相比 2024 年末上升 1052.26 亿元;其中,年内规模增量主要源于新发规模,新发 规模达 845 亿元; 3）长盈计划相关 FOF 受到大幅关注, 首发规模与持营规模变动均靠 前;4) 基金公司：多数头 ...

2026 年 01 月 10 日 FOF 基金：2025 年度策略回顾与 2026 年度策略展望 证 券 研 究 相关研究 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 目录 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 权 益 量 化 研 究 量 化 策 略 报 告 - ⚫ 规模维度：2025 年规模逆势回升，累计规模已超过 2021 年末水平。1）从数量来看， 2025 年 FOF 新发产品数量有明显提升，2025 年内共计新发 FOF93 只，对比去年 38 只 的新发数量明显上升；2）FOF 总规模逆势回升，2025 年内 FOF 规模累计 2383.76 亿 元，相比 2024 年末上升 1052.26 亿元；其中，年内规模增量主要源于新发规模，新发 规 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The fixed income strategy is facing challenges due to increased interest rate volatility, leading to the ineffectiveness of single-duration strategies and limited space for credit spreads. The fixed income plus strategy is gaining attention, but the traditional fixed income plus sector is limited in capacity and facing a contraction issue [1][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Mixed Investment Strategy**: A mixed investment strategy combining stocks and bonds can optimize risk and return. International experiences, such as the Morningstar Core Plus Bond fund, suggest that increasing equity assets can enhance returns. The long-term return of China's equity market is promising, but it is characterized by high volatility. The National Social Security Fund has achieved an average annual return of 7.39% through mixed investments [1][5]. - **Policy Guidance for Long-term Funds**: Policies guiding long-term funds into the market are encouraging institutions to increase equity allocations. Large insurance companies are expected to invest 30% of new premiums into A-shares annually. By the end of 2025, the proportion of stock and fund investments by life insurance companies is projected to reach about 15%, resulting in an estimated annual inflow of over 100 billion yuan into the A-share market [1][6]. - **Impact of Incremental Funds**: Incremental funds are expected to have a rapid corrective effect on undervalued assets. For instance, the banking sector is favored by insurance funds due to its low valuation and high dividends, with the price-to-book ratio expected to recover from 0.52 to 0.74, indicating a cumulative increase of nearly 64% from 2024 to 2025 [1][7]. - **Valuation Comparison**: As of November 2025, the PE TTM of the CSI 300 index is 13.92, significantly lower than the S&P 500 index at 28. This indicates that Chinese equity assets offer high cost-performance compared to global markets [1][8]. - **Concentration in Growth Sectors**: The ChiNext board focuses on high-end manufacturing, with the top seven constituent stocks being leading blue-chip companies. The dynamic PE for 2026 is expected to be around 25 times, reflecting an increase in concentration and a slow bull market similar to the Nasdaq 100 index [1][4][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Challenges for Traditional Fixed Income Strategies**: The traditional fixed income strategies are challenged by increased interest rate volatility and limited credit spread expansion, making it difficult for investors to find yield [2][3]. - **Emerging Tools in Fixed Income Plus Market**: New tools in the fixed income plus market include convertible bond ETFs and a focus on fixed proportion stock-bond ETFs, which are expected to attract long-term capital due to their low fees and high transparency [1][13][14]. - **Rebalancing Strategy Benefits**: Implementing a rebalancing strategy can significantly reduce the volatility of an asset portfolio, enhancing overall stability by adjusting asset proportions based on market movements [1][18]. - **Future of Multi-Asset Allocation**: The trend towards multi-asset allocation is characterized by high transparency and liquidity, which will lower the entry barriers for individual investors and promote innovation among institutions [1][25]. - **Performance of Dividend Low Volatility Index**: The dividend low volatility index has shown stable historical performance, with a 5-year annualized return of 4% and a volatility of only 1%, indicating its robustness compared to other indices [1][24]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the fixed income and equity markets, as well as the implications of policy changes and investment strategies.

债券策略和组合基金的备案数量分别为492只和512只，占比分别为3.89%和4.05%。市场分析人士表 示，债券策略和组合基金备案数量占比虽然较小，但形成了与主流策略互补的多元化格局，满足了不同 风险偏好投资者的需求。 值得一提的是，2025年量化产品备案表现尤为亮眼。2025年量化私募备案产品共计5617只，较2024年的 2621只增幅114.31%，另外2025年备案量化产品占到总量的44.42%，较2024年的41.68%，亦有提升。其 中股票策略量化产品以4077只的数量占据主导，占量化产品总数量的72.58%，彰显了量化股票策略的 市场认可度。 期货及衍生品量化策略备案773只，占到备案产品总量的13.76%，其中量化CTA策略以726只的备案数 量成为核心细分赛道，量化产品总数量的12.93%，期权策略和其他衍生品策略则分别备案40只和7只， 占比0.71%和0.12%，反映出量化衍生品策略仍以CTA为主，其他细分领域尚处于稳步发展阶段。 2025年，私募证券产品掀起备案热潮。私募排排网数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，全年共计备案私募 证券产品12645只(包含自主发行和担任投顾的产品)， ...

【导读】券商资管2026年多资产展望：权益掘金牛市后半程，多元配置凸显价值 进入2026年，在年初投资布局关键期，券商资管聚焦权益、债市与FOF三大业务，为全年投资锚定清晰 方向。综合来看，受访机构认为权益市场仍处于"牛市后半程"，结构性机会丰富；债市预计维持宽幅震 荡；在波动与机遇并存的环境中，进行多资产、多策略配置仍是主流选择。 权益市场：锚定牛市后半程 对于2026年的A股市场，多家券商资管持积极看法，认为其仍处于"牛市后半程"，驱动因素包括流动性 充裕、盈利周期见底回升、政策持续支持以及居民资产配置转移等。 国金资管表示，当前流动性环境和政策监管环境持续完善，长期资金呈持续流入态势，科技持续突围与 经济结构性亮点有望为部分行业带来基本面景气向上的结构性机会。权益市场的投资机会或将更具广度 和深度。 财通资管指出，"春季躁动"行情可能会在岁末年初到来，且以TMT和中小市值风格为主。另外，从市净 率（PB）和净资产收益率（ROE）角度出发，当前电力设备、非银金融、有色金属、传媒性价比或占 优，PB和ROE双底的消费及顺周期行业等待布局。 对于债券市场，多家券商资管判断，收益率将维持宽幅震荡走势，下行与上行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in 2026, brokerage asset management will focus on equities, bonds, and FOF (Fund of Funds) strategies, indicating a clear investment direction for the year. The equity market is seen as being in the "second half of a bull market," with abundant structural opportunities, while the bond market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations. Multi-asset and multi-strategy allocations remain the mainstream choice in a volatile environment [2]. Equity Market: Anchoring the Bull Market's Second Half - Multiple brokerage asset management firms hold a positive outlook for the A-share market in 2026, believing it remains in the "second half of a bull market." Key drivers include ample liquidity, a recovering profit cycle, ongoing policy support, and a shift in residents' asset allocation [4]. - Guojin Asset Management notes that the current liquidity and regulatory environment is improving, with long-term capital inflows expected. Structural opportunities are anticipated in certain industries due to technological breakthroughs and economic highlights [4]. - Caitong Asset Management suggests that a "spring rally" may occur at the end of the year, primarily driven by TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and small-cap stocks. They highlight sectors like power equipment, non-bank financials, and media as having favorable price-to-book (PB) and return on equity (ROE) metrics [4]. - Guotai Haitong Asset Management believes the current A-share market began its rally on September 24, 2024, with a steady "slow bull" trend expected in 2026, supported by a favorable environment of RMB appreciation and low domestic interest rates [4]. - Guotai Haitong recommends focusing on "5+X" industries in the first half of 2026, including solar energy, brokerage firms, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and basic chemicals, with an additional focus on Hang Seng Technology [5]. - Huatai Securities Asset Management identifies four main investment lines: technology growth, upstream sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, advanced manufacturing, and deeply undervalued consumer and non-bank financial sectors [5]. Bond Market: Wide Fluctuations as the Main Theme - Several brokerage asset management firms predict that bond yields will maintain a wide fluctuation trend in 2026, with limited space for both upward and downward movements. Focus should be on wave trading and structural opportunities, with credit bonds and convertible bonds each having their own value [6]. - Guojin Asset Management states that active fiscal policies may continue to exert pressure on bond yields, while basic economic pressures remain. The central bank's liquidity is expected to remain loose to support fiscal policy implementation [7]. - Caitong Asset Management emphasizes that weak economic recovery will support the bond market, with an overall expectation of fluctuating bond yields in 2026. They highlight the value of credit bonds amid a prolonged "asset shortage" [8]. FOF Market: Multi-Asset Strategies Present Allocation Opportunities - The market is expected to mature in 2025, with a significant reduction in the phenomenon of betting on single assets or strategies, highlighting the advantages of multi-asset allocation. In 2026, brokerage asset management firms are optimistic about multi-asset FOF strategies, anticipating that quantitative strategies and active funds will contribute to excess returns [9]. - Guojin Asset Management notes that the complementary nature of the credit cycles in China and the U.S. supports total demand, leading to a cautious optimism regarding multi-asset FOF returns in 2026 [10]. - Caitong Asset Management emphasizes that multi-asset allocation will have significant advantages in 2026, with expectations for a "slow bull" in equities and opportunities in commodities and global assets [10]. - Guotai Haitong Asset Management maintains a positive outlook on quantitative stock selection strategies, expecting a favorable environment for stock quantitative strategies due to ample liquidity in the equity market [11].

Core Insights - The public fund market is expected to accelerate growth in 2025, driven by a continued ETF investment boom and a shift towards multi-asset allocation strategies [1] - The report from CITIC Securities highlights a recovery in active equity fund sizes, primarily driven by net asset value increases, while passive index funds dominate growth [1][3] - Fixed income products are experiencing significant differentiation, with a notable expansion in "fixed income plus" products amid a low-interest-rate environment [1][13] Group 1: Fund Market Trends - By Q3 2025, the size of passive index funds increased by over 1.1 trillion yuan, with ETF sizes surpassing 5 trillion yuan [1] - Active equity funds have shown a recovery in excess returns, but their size growth is mainly due to net asset value increases, reflecting investors' tendency to take profits in a recovering market [1] - The fixed income market is weakening, with long-term pure bond fund sizes decreasing by over 600 billion yuan, while short-term pure bond funds decreased by nearly 250 billion yuan [1] Group 2: FOF Market Recovery - The FOF (Fund of Funds) market has significantly rebounded, with over 80 new FOF funds launched in 2025, totaling a new issuance scale of 80 billion yuan [2] - New FOFs increasingly reflect multi-asset allocation characteristics, including equity, fixed income, commodity funds, QDII funds, and public REITs [2] Group 3: Active Equity Fund Performance - Notable growth in active equity funds was observed among several fund managers, with Yongying Fund, China Europe Fund, and E Fund each increasing their active equity fund sizes by over 35 billion yuan [3][8] - Yongying Fund's "Smart Selection Series" achieved a remarkable growth of over 760 billion yuan in active equity fund size, with a 576 billion yuan increase attributed to this series alone [7][8] - China Europe Fund's active equity fund size grew by over 705 billion yuan, with a 42.44% increase, driven by strong performance in TMT sector funds [8] Group 4: Fixed Income Plus Fund Growth - The report indicates a significant growth in "fixed income plus" funds, with the size of these funds increasing by over 1.1 trillion yuan, particularly favored by institutional investors [13][14] - The leading growth in fixed income plus funds is attributed to secondary bond funds, with many achieving top rankings in performance over the past two years [14] Group 5: ETF Market Dynamics - The ETF market is showing a clear trend of concentration among leading players, with Huaxia Fund, E Fund, and Huatai-PB Fund each holding over 10% market share [16] - By Q3 2025, Huaxia Fund's ETF size reached 941.69 billion yuan, accounting for 16.52% of the market, while E Fund's ETF size was 872.96 billion yuan, representing 15.32% [16] - Major contributors to ETF size growth include gold ETFs and mainstream broad-based ETFs, with significant increases noted in the sizes of Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and Huaxia CSI 300 ETF [16][18]

Asset Performance - The report indicates a strong performance in equities and commodities, with A-shares and precious metals leading the gains[11] - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a weekly increase of 1.88% and a year-to-date increase of 21.49%[12] - The CSI 500 Index experienced a weekly rise of 4.03% and a year-to-date increase of 34.49%[12] Market Expectations - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, significantly above the expected 3.3%[19] - The offshore RMB exchange rate broke the 7.00 mark, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets[23] - The report anticipates continued strength in risk assets due to expectations of U.S. economic downturn and policy easing[22] Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends a bullish stance on A-shares, commodities, and gold, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and telecommunications[28] - It suggests monitoring A-share equity-related index enhancement strategies and commodity-related CTA strategies[54] Risk Considerations - The report highlights potential extreme risk events, such as U.S.-China relations and unexpected global geopolitical events, which could disrupt historical patterns[4] - It also notes the risk of quantitative indicators becoming ineffective, as historical data may not reliably predict future outcomes[4]

最新数据显示，我国全市场ETF规模已经突破6万亿元大关，达到6.03万亿元，与年初3.69万亿元的规模相比，年内增长超63%。业内人士表示，在市场规 模快速扩张的同时，我国指数化投资也出现了新的发展机遇。 年内ETF规模增长迅速 数据显示，截至12月29日，国内ETF市场总规模达到60281.10亿元，其中规模最大的产品类型为股票型ETF，其次是跨境ETF和债券型ETF。其中，股票型 ETF规模达3.85万亿元，占比63.8%；跨境ETF规模0.94万亿元，占比15.6%；债券型ETF规模8045.64亿元，占比13.3%；商品型ETF规模2568.50亿元，占比 4.3%；货币型ETF规模1790.69亿元，占比3.0%。 从产品增长来看，今年以来股票型ETF年内规模增长超8000亿元，其中，中证A500ETF成为最大资金吸金引擎，12月单月净流入达960.65亿元，推动相关 产品总规模突破3000亿元；债券型ETF年内规模增长约5630亿元，科技创新公司债ETF因信用资质优、收益稳健，成为债券型ETF主力增量来源；跨境 ETF规模增长超5100亿元，恒生科技、港股通等产品表现突出；商品型ETF中的黄金ET ...

回顾 2025 年，在经历科技与"反内卷"周期驱动的结构性行情和高波动投资之后，不少投资者的直观感受 是，"资产配置多元化是投资的唯一免费午餐"这句话的含金量还在上升。 这一年，公募 FOF 规模连续三个季度正增长，创近三年新高。 FOF 正从" 基金买手 "升级为"资产管家"， 帮助投资者降低配置难度、应对市场波动。 数据来源： Wind ，申万宏源，截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日 所以在低利率、高波动的市场环境下，我们亟待弄清楚：低利率与市场不确定性交织下，如何理解 FOF 的 独特价值？管理者又如何打造适配多数投资者的 " 资产管家式 "FOF 产品？ 于是我们和 万家基金总经理助理、 FOF 团队负责人任峥 做了一次关于 FOF 的深度对话，探寻答案。 以客户需求为本打造"资产管家" FOF 产品 长期担任大型机构资金端基金配置负责人，让任峥对全市场公募基金有着全面洞察与深厚研究积累。在他的 投资理念中， FOF 基金经理不仅是基金挑选者，更是客户的资产管家——首先要深度洞悉、理解客户的真 实投资目标，此后将目标拆解成具体、可执行的配置策略，最后稳步推进直至目标达成。 任峥用做菜来比喻这一过程： ...