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长城基金汪立:日历效应看,当前防守风格或更具性价比
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-05-26 08:27
Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations and a decline in trading volume, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 11,733 billion [1] - Value stocks outperformed growth stocks, and large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks; sectors such as pharmaceuticals, comprehensive, and non-ferrous metals performed well, while computer, machinery, and communication sectors lagged [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Outlook - Domestic macroeconomic indicators showed a decline in growth rates for industrial output, fixed asset investment, and retail sales compared to March, but overall economic resilience remains [1] - High-frequency data indicates weak fundamental recovery, although there is some expectation for external demand to support exports [1] - Manufacturing operating rates mostly declined, with new home sales showing weakness; however, first-tier cities performed slightly better than last year [1] Group 3: International Economic Risks - There is an increase in international risks, including the expiration of a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds and rising tariffs in Europe and the U.S., leading to a surge in gold prices and a decline in U.S. stocks [2] - The recent poor auction of 20-year Japanese bonds caused a spike in long-term Japanese bond yields, primarily due to weak demand from domestic investors [2] - The U.S. economic data continues to weaken, raising expectations for interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, which may influence global markets [2] Group 4: Market Adjustment Expectations - The market is expected to undergo significant adjustments, particularly in June, with limited support from fundamentals and policies [3] - Historical market patterns suggest that after a strong first quarter, the market may trend downwards in June and July, necessitating caution [3] - The market may begin to recover after mid-July, coinciding with political meetings and potential policy stimuli [3] Group 5: Investment Strategies - In the short term, the market is likely to have downward momentum, and investors should focus on three areas: undervalued stocks in the CSI 300, industries at the bottom of their reporting cycles, and dividend assets with potential for short-term rebounds [5]