行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创金融红利资产月报（2026 年 2 月） 4Q25 商业银行业绩增速回正，险资权益配置 推荐（维持） 维持历史高位 银行 2026 年 03 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 证券分析师：陈海椰 邮箱：chenhaiye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070004 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 141,801.93 | 10.91 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 95,189.42 | 9.07 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 0.4% | -7.5% | 4.3% | | 相对表现 | 0.3% | -14.9% ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创金融红利资产月报（2026 年 2 月） 4Q25 商业银行业绩增速回正，险资权益配置 推荐（维持） 维持历史高位 银行 2026 年 03 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 141,801.93 | 10.91 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 95,189.42 | 9.07 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 0.4% | -7.5% | 4.3% | | 相对表现 | 0.3% | -14.9% | -14.4% | -8% 3% 13% 23% 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/10 25/12 26/02 2025-03-03~2026-02-27 银行 沪深300 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhu ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|红利资产月报（2026 年 2 月） 基本面韧性强，建议重视业绩窗口期交运红 推荐（维持） 利配置机会 交通运输 2026 年 02 月 27 日 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | 0. ...

报告为华金证券 2026 年 1 月发布的消费行业深度报告，指出消费市场总量磨底但结构性亮点凸显，建议聚焦红利资产与情绪消费双主线，采取哑铃型配置 策略，同时看好海南封关带来的免税行业新机遇，行业评级为领先大市。 报告指出，2025 年 12 月社零增速受春节错期、大促退潮影响回落，消费大盘处于 L 型磨底阶段，但结构分化显著：服务消费（餐饮 + 2.2%）韧性优于实 物商品（+0.7%），体育娱乐、化妆品等具备情绪价值的赛道逆势高增，而家电、建筑装潢等地产后周期板块持续低迷，消费 K 型分化加剧，需求正从物质 满足向精神体验迁移。当前消费核心板块估值处于历史低位，食品饮料、白酒 PE-TTM 分位数分别至 7.5%、4.1%，安全边际与长期配置性价比显著。 行业层面，各板块呈现差异化特征：食品饮料板块成本红利释放，白酒批价筑底、区域酒企迎返乡红利，大众品现金流稳健具高股息价值；商贸零售线下必 选稳、可选弱，即时零售成线上核心增量；社会服务估值回归历史中枢，服务消费占比提升至 46.1%，具备长期增长动力；家电、纺织服饰制造端出口回 暖，家电板块估值低位凸显配置价值；轻工制造地产链估值筑底，文娱用品受益情绪消 ...

Group 1 - Public funds such as Invesco Great Wall, Morgan, and Cathay Fund announced that some of their funds will implement dividends soon, reflecting a growing enthusiasm for dividend distribution among public funds in 2026 [1][2] - As of February 25, 2026, public fund products have recorded up to 7 dividend distributions this year, with quantitative funds being particularly active in this regard [1][2] - The increase in dividend distributions is seen as a strategy by fund managers to enhance the long-term attractiveness of their products amid challenges in fundraising and in response to policy requirements [1][2] Group 2 - The majority of funds with the highest number of dividend distributions are active equity funds, with quantitative funds appearing more frequently in the dividend distribution landscape compared to previous years [2][3] - The focus on dividend funds is driven by the need for stable cash flows from dividend assets, which can provide dual returns through consistent cash dividends and potential capital gains [3][4] - Since the beginning of 2026, dividend-themed funds have shown strong performance, with some products achieving returns exceeding 10%, and the average return for all dividend-themed funds reaching 4.47%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's growth [3][4] Group 3 - The shift in the industry is moving from scale expansion to prioritizing investor interests, with dividends becoming a key factor in enhancing the holding experience for investors [5] - The growth in the scale of passive products and the maturity of dividend mechanisms, along with the demand from long-term capital for stable cash flows, are driving the increase in dividend amounts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the active trading of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900) and emphasizes the attractiveness of high dividend assets and growth-oriented stocks in the current low macro interest rate environment [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The macro interest rates are at historical lows, prompting a focus on companies with strong technical capabilities and excellent cash flow, as well as undervalued high-dividend quality state-owned enterprises [1] - The trend of low interest rates and policies encouraging long-term capital inflow into the market supports the view that dividend assets remain a worthwhile long-term investment direction [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900) and its offshore links (022719/022720) closely track the CSI China New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index (931722.CSI) [1] - The ETF has a significant allocation to leading state-owned enterprises such as the three major oil companies, the three major telecommunications operators, and China Shenhua, showcasing notable value style and defensive characteristics [1] - This investment vehicle provides investors with a convenient entry point to allocate to Hong Kong dividend assets, balancing stable returns with long-term value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The enthusiasm for dividend distribution among public funds is increasing significantly in 2026, with various types of equity funds, including quantitative funds, actively participating in dividend payouts [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution Trends - Multiple public funds, including those from Invesco Great Wall, Morgan, and Cathay, announced dividend distributions for their funds [1][2]. - As of February 25, 2026, some funds have already distributed dividends up to 7 times this year, with quantitative funds being particularly active in this regard [2][4]. - The trend of increasing dividend distributions is seen as a strategy by fund managers to enhance the long-term attractiveness of their products amid challenges in fundraising and regulatory compliance [1][4]. Group 2: Performance of Dividend Funds - Wind statistics indicate that the top funds in terms of dividend distribution frequency are primarily active equity funds, with a notable presence of quantitative funds [4]. - The average return rate for dividend-themed funds since the beginning of 2026 has reached 4.47%, surpassing the growth of the Shanghai Composite Index [7]. - Specific funds, such as Huashang Hong Kong Stock Connect Value Return, have achieved a return rate of 15.93% year-to-date, while several others have exceeded 10% [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The demand for dividend-paying assets is driven by the need for stable cash flow, especially among risk-averse institutional investors [7][8]. - The growth in dividend distributions is supported by the expansion of passive products and the increasing scale of broad-based ETFs, which enhance the dividend mechanism [8]. - Fund managers are focusing on creating products that prioritize investor benefits, with dividends becoming a key factor in improving the holding experience [8].

截至2月18日，EPFR数据口径下，外资当周净流入港股10.2亿美元，但情绪指标已触及"贪婪"区间。历 史经验表明，极度乐观情绪后往往伴随回调风险。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 美东时间2月20日，美国去年四季度GDP增速受技术因素拖累回落至1.4%，但剔除后内需仍增2.4%，市 场对美联储的降息预期维持平稳，当前仍预计年内约两次降息，流动性环境料想不会发生明显变化。 在市场动荡期，具备央企信用背书、现金流稳定的红利资产是资金天然的承接方。其稳定的分红预期不 仅能提供下行保护，更能将外部不确定性转化为相对收益的来源。此外，指数化投资基于"分散化"原理 可应对宏观不确定性。 截至14:47，中证港股通央企红利指数（931233）下跌0.10%。成分股涨跌互现，中国建材领涨8.96%， 中国船舶租赁上涨4.70%，中国外运上涨2.95%；新华保险领跌5.29%，中国人民保险集团下跌3.57%， 中银香港下跌2.62%。 中证港股通央企红利指数（931233.CSI），从港股通范围内，选取中央企业实际控制的分红水平稳定且 股息率较高的50只上市公司股票进行打包；截至2月13日，该指数近1年股息率是5.79%，港股央 ...

春节假期最后一天港股的亮眼表现，令机构们对A股马年"开门红"充满期待。 "2026年的春晚是AI含量浓度最高的一年，也是AI应用的重要分水岭与节点。"华鑫证券传媒新消费首席 分析师朱珠在研报中称，AI未来的竞争将更加激烈，各家将持续推出新模型、新产品，春节后的AI板 块有望持续演绎，传媒有望承接AI应用新红利。 机构普遍指出，春节后A股科技行情的驱动核心主要来自两方面：一是节后将迎来政策的密集落地，例 如"人工智能+"、数字经济发展规划等节后预期将加速推进；二是美股与港股的映射效应显著，春节期 间海外市场表现强势的科技板块，节后通常能带动A股相关标的走强。 此外，春节后短期市场风格往往向科技成长倾斜。据华金证券统计，春节后5或10个交易日内科技成长 行业走势相对占优。近10年内春节后5个交易日内涨幅进入前三次数最多的行业主要为计算机（5次）、 电子（4次）、通信（3次）、传媒（3次）等科技成长行业，春节后10个交易日内的涨幅榜也由科技成 长行业主导。 2月23日，恒生指数、恒生科技指数双双走强。截至收盘，恒生指数上涨2.53%，报27081.91点；恒生科 技指数涨3.34%，报5385.35点。港股科技股、 ...

银河证券研报认为，春节后，在政策预期、流动性加持与产业趋势催化下，市场震荡上行概率较大，同 时需密切关注海外不确定性对于市场情绪的短期扰动。两会前后，A股市场或将以政策催化为核心驱动 力，资金围绕政策导向的产业主线与主题机会博弈，呈现"政策热点轮动、风格快速切换"的特征。3月 市场逻辑将从"政策预期"逐步转向"业绩兑现"，上市公司2025年年报与随后的2026年一季报披露将成为 行情锚点，业绩超预期标的或获得资金聚焦。在配置机会上，重点关注：主线一，供需格局改善与行业 盈利修复带动的"反内卷"概念，以及估值具备安全边际的红利资产，配置逻辑依然清晰，建议关注受益 于价格上涨的有色金属（贵金属）、石油石化行业，以及基础化工、钢铁、水泥、建筑材料、金融等板 块。主线二，春节假期期间，机器人、AI大模型等热点受到广泛关注，节后或将呈现结构性亮点。随 着全球百年未遇之大变局加速演进，国内经济底层逻辑转向新质生产力，半导体、人工智能、新能源、 军工、航空航天等"十五五"重点领域值得关注。 ...