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用户侧储能装机环比下降,投资回报不确定性增加
Core Insights - The user-side energy storage market shows a year-on-year increase in newly installed capacity, with a notable growth in the number and scale of registered projects compared to the same period last year [2][9][10] - High energy-consuming industries such as metallurgy, chemicals, and textiles account for over 70% of the installed capacity, indicating a strong demand for carbon reduction and supply assurance [5][10] - The peak-valley price difference in certain regions of Guangdong remains above 1 yuan/kWh, providing significant arbitrage opportunities for energy storage [12][16] User-side Energy Storage Data - In September, the newly installed user-side energy storage capacity reached 243.56 MW and 488.22 MWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 38% and 18%, respectively, but a month-on-month decrease of 41% and 46% [4][17] - The commercial application dominates the user-side energy storage market, accounting for over 95% of the installations, with high energy-consuming enterprises driving the demand [5][8] Regional Distribution - The newly installed projects are primarily concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, with Jiangsu having the largest installed capacity, accounting for nearly half of the national total [8][10] - Zhejiang leads in the number of newly registered projects, while Guangdong shows significant growth in both project scale and number [9][10] Price and Investment Returns - The peak-valley price difference in 15 provinces exceeds 0.7 yuan/kWh, with seven provinces surpassing 1 yuan, particularly in Guangdong, which has a high potential for price arbitrage [12][16] - Frequent adjustments to time-of-use electricity pricing policies introduce uncertainty regarding investment returns for user-side energy storage projects [3][16] Overall Market Trends - The total newly installed capacity for new energy storage projects in September reached 3.08 GW and 9.08 GWh, with year-on-year increases of 166% and 200%, respectively [17] - The third quarter saw a total of 9.16 GW and 25.52 GWh of newly installed capacity, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the year [17]