1. Report Information - Report Title: European Line Container Shipping Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - September to October is the traditional off - season, and the capacity regulation is limited with supply pressure remaining. However, shipping companies are starting to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season, raising freight rates in the second half of October. Although the announced price increase may not be fully implemented, a bottom - up recovery trend is likely to form. The escalating Middle East situation is also expected to support far - month contracts, and there should be low - buying opportunities in December [7][26]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 9 - month Market Review - Spot freight rates were still in a downward channel in September, but there were signs of price support. Due to the off - season for shipments and sufficient capacity supply, shipping companies faced greater pressure to attract cargo and continuously lowered freight rates. The online spot freight rate for large containers dropped to a low of $1400 in late September. Futures prices followed the decline, with the October contract hitting a low of 1046 points. However, at the end of the month, shipping companies began to promote long - term contracts for the end of the year and announced price increases for late October, boosting the expectations of far - month futures contracts, and the December contract showed obvious recovery. Overall, EC futures first declined and then recovered, with significantly improved expectations for far - month contracts [10]. - The trading data of European line container shipping futures in September shows that different contracts had different price trends and trading volumes. For example, the EC2510 contract had a monthly decline of 12.34%, while the EC2512 contract had a monthly increase of 12.40% [11]. 4.2 Freight Spot Quote Situation - Most freight rates for the second half of October were raised to over $2000. As the long - term contract season approaches, shipping companies are raising freight rates. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's large - container price in the third week of October started at $1810 and reached a maximum of $1911. Mainstream shipping companies such as CMA CGM, OOCL, Evergreen, ONE, and HMM had large - container quotes in the range of $1400 - $1620 in the first half of the month and $2000 - $2220 in the second half, with an increase of about $600. However, the overall loading forecast rate after the National Day holiday was low, and the price increase may not be implemented. Attention should be paid to whether other shipping companies will follow to form a price - increasing force [15]. 4.3 Container Shipping Supply - Demand Analysis 4.3.1 Demand Side - China's exports showed marginal slowdown in August, but leading indicators improved in September. In August, China's total exports were $321.81 billion, with a year - on - year growth of 4.4%, and the growth rate slowed by 2.8 percentage points compared with the previous month. The main reasons for the weakening of exports were the implementation of tariffs and the cooling of "rush - to - export." In September, the new export order index rebounded by 1 percentage point, and the BDI index increased significantly compared with August, indicating the resilience of external demand [16]. - The economic sentiment in Europe improved in September but was severely differentiated in structure, with potential downward risks in long - term demand. The EU economic sentiment index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 95.5% in September, and the preliminary value of the S&P Eurozone composite PMI improved to 51.2%. However, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value dropped to 49.5, back below the boom - bust line. Germany's service industry grew rapidly, but the manufacturing industries in Germany and France declined significantly. Overall, although the current comprehensive demand in Europe has improved, the structural differentiation may lead to the unsustainability of the improvement, and the support from the demand side for freight rate increases is limited [18]. 4.3.2 Supply Side - In terms of potential capacity, since July 2024, new container ship orders globally have increased significantly. The number of shipbuilding orders on hand and the completion volume are significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the number of container ship orders on hand has continued to grow at a high rate this year, with the growth rate accelerating in August. It is expected that container shipping capacity will continue to grow at a relatively high rate with the continuous delivery of new ships [20]. - In terms of actual capacity, the number of blank sailings increased in October, with the weekly average capacity dropping to about 250,000 TEU, but it was still at a relatively high level in the off - season. The capacity regulation was not strong, and the weekly average capacity in November is expected to rise to about 286,000 TEU, indicating long - term supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether shipping companies will further increase blank sailings to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season [20]. - The Israel - Palestine conflict in the Red Sea is intensifying. The military confrontation between Israel and the Houthi rebels continued in September. The probability of continued detours in the Red Sea this year is high, and it is unlikely to bring additional capacity supply pressure [22]. 4.4 Outlook - September to October is the traditional off - season, and the capacity regulation is limited with supply pressure remaining. However, shipping companies are starting to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season, raising freight rates in the second half of October. Although the announced price increase may not be fully implemented, a bottom - up recovery trend is likely to form. The escalating Middle East situation is also expected to support far - month contracts, and there should be low - buying opportunities in December [26].