行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 一、聚焦：美伊冲突推升航运资产风险溢价，快递反内卷延续 （一）油运：美伊冲突局势骤然升级，助推航运资产风险溢价 1、美伊冲突局势升级，霍尔木兹海峡或成为全球能源和航运市场关注的焦点。 克拉克森研究统计，全球约 11%的海运贸易量需经由霍尔木兹海峡，其中包括 34%的石油出口、30%的 LPG 出口、20%的 LNG 贸易、18%的化学品贸易 和 7%的汽车贸易，集装箱和干散货贸易占比分别为 3%和 2%。若其运输关 闭或中断将对全球能源和航运市场产生重大影响，例如导致能源价格飙升，海 运贸易结构和贸易流向潜在改变。 2、VLCC 现货运价冲高至 20 万，期租租金涨至 10 万。本周克拉克森 VLCC- TCE 指数 20.0 万美元，周环比+40.1%；其中，中东-中国航线报于 22.3 万美 元/天，周环比+42%；西非-中国航线报于 18.4 万美元/天，周环比+39%；美湾 -中国航线报于 13.3 万美元/天，周环比+35%。一年期 VLCC 期租价格也继续 涨至 10 万美元/天，周环比+9%。 3、投资建议：此前报告我们提出，三大因素致 VLCC 市场正面临近乎 ...

期货HPAD AND 免费开户 ) 期货下午茶 ·每日复 2026年02月26日 星期四 17:00制作 金十期货APP独家整理 | 市场情绪仪表盘 ● 弱势 震荡 强势 ® 震荡分化 集运欧线重挫 | 铁合金领涨板块 l 今日关键词 丶欧线运价承压 = 螺纹/纯碱累库 | 又 今日焦点 (空头明星) 集运欧线 2604 INE EC2604 集运欧线2604M(INE ec2604) BOLL(26,26.2) > MID 1233.39 TOP 1240.88 BOTTOI 1250.0 1238.0 2天 1771.0 海通期货: 综合来看各船司的报价,3月上旬挺价基本落空,运价以 主。节后需求仍在缓慢恢复中，船司在11周开始相对偏 TT + + 1 LL 11-12 A 印尼矿 受较大的揽员左刀,导致益咱大幅凹损。 l 今日热点资讯 Mysteel:本周螺纹钢总库存为800.6万吨,上周 黑色 周累库84.56万吨,上周累库129.22万吨。螺纹产量由增 周增加,社库连续第八周增加,表需由降转增。螺纹产量 上周减少5.28万吨,降幅3.10%;螺纹厂库232.84万吨, 万吨,增幅5.32%。 降众资 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View The EC of the container shipping European route dropped by 4.76%. There is a short - term tariff difference gap period, which may cause a surge in export cargo volume on the Asia - America route. Coupled with the relatively optimistic expectation of the rush to export products such as photovoltaic after the Spring Festival in March, the route linkage effect may lead to an optimistic post - festival expectation. Maersk opened a new cabin in the second week of March, with a quote of $1800 for a large container to Rotterdam, a $100 decrease from the previous week. Although the decline is limited, the current expectation is difficult to reverse. Considering the traditional seasonality and the late Spring Festival this year, March is the lightest month for post - festival cargo volume. Compared with the rush to export photovoltaic products, the freight rate may enter a downward period. Attention should be paid to the cabin opening situation of the PA Alliance, which has greater pressure on spot cargo collection [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest View - The EC of the container shipping European route dropped by 4.76%. A short - term tariff difference gap period may lead to a surge in export cargo volume on the Asia - America route. The rush to export photovoltaic products after the Spring Festival in March and the route linkage effect make the post - festival expectation optimistic [1]. - Maersk's new cabin in the second week of March has a $100 decrease in the quote for large containers to Rotterdam. Due to limited decline, it is difficult to reverse the current expectation. March is likely to be the lightest month for post - festival cargo volume, and the freight rate may enter a downward period. Attention should be paid to the PA Alliance's cabin opening situation [1]. EC Contract Quantity and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Change) | Open Interest (Change) | Long Position (Top 20 Members) | Short Position (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Position (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2604 | 1278.6 | - 4.76 | 33480 (-17218) | 35355 (850) | 19372 | 24574 | - 5202 | | EC2606 | 1659 | - 2.43 | 6533 (-1795) | 16362 (505) | | | | | EC2608 | 1730.3 | - 1.59 | 483 (-618) | 1337 (0) | | | | | EC2610 | 1158.2 | - 0.30 | 3244 (452) | 9901 (1175) | | | | | EC2612 | 1444.5 | - 0.26 | 28 (-6) | 131 (3) | | | | | Total | - | - | 43768 | 63086 | 19372 | 24574 | - 5202 | [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Route | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | Increase/Decrease (%) | Previous Period | Increase/Decrease (%) | Two Periods Ago | Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1573.51 | - 2.1 | 1607.27 | - 3.1 | 1657.94 | - 7.5 | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1361 | - 3.0 | 1403 | - 1.1 | 1418 | - 11.1 | | Spot Freight Rates | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1518 | - 2.1 | 1551 | 0.0 | 1551 | 0.0 | | (Daily) | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2553 | - 1.7 | 2597 | 0.0 | 2597 | 0.0 | [4] Basis Spread The basis of the previous trading day was 294.91 points, and that of the day before the previous trading day was 252.91 points, with a change of 42 points [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side shows mixed trends, with some indicators like power plant daily consumption falling during the holiday, while the blast furnace operating rate rising against the trend; the demand side has a weak rebound in the property market and strong growth in the auto market, but prices of steel, cement, glass and other products are weak or fluctuating; inflation shows different trends in CPI and PPI, with post - holiday pig prices weakening and oil prices rising [4] Summary of Each Section According to the Directory 1. Economic Growth: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday 1.1 Production: Rising Blast Furnace Operating Rate Against the Trend - **Power plant daily consumption decline during the holiday**: On February 24, the average daily consumption of 6 large power generation groups was 58.4 tons, a 0.7% decrease from February 17; on February 13, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 240.1 tons, a 22.9% decrease from February 9 [4][11] - **Rising blast furnace operating rate against the trend**: On February 13, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.2%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from February 6; the capacity utilization rate was 86.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from February 6. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan steel mills was 96.8% on February 13, a 4.5 - percentage - point increase from February 6 [4][15] - **Tire operating rate dropping to the same - period low last year during the holiday**: On February 19, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 14.2%, a 28.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 14.2%, a 45.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions also had a seasonal decline [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday - **Weak rebound in the property market during the holiday**: From the first day to the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 75,000 square meters, a 15.9% increase from the same period last year, a 44.6% increase from the same period in 2024, and a 54.0% decrease from the same period in 2023. The rebound strength in first - tier cities was stronger than that in second - and third - tier cities [21] - **Stronger growth in auto market retail sales**: In February, retail sales increased by 54% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 46% year - on - year [4][25] - **Weak and fluctuating steel prices**: On February 24, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.9% and remained flat respectively compared with February 14. The inventory of steel products also increased rapidly [29] - **Continued weakness in cement prices**: On February 24, the national cement price index decreased by 0.2% compared with February 12. The prices in East China and the Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, slightly weaker than the national average [30] - **Narrow - range fluctuations in glass prices**: On February 24, the active futures contract price of glass was 1048 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from February 13 [36] - **Unstoppable decline in container shipping freight rate index**: On February 13, the CCFI index decreased by 3.0% compared with February 6, and the SCFI index decreased by 1.2% during the same period [40] 2. Inflation: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday 2.1 CPI: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday - **Weakening pig prices after the holiday**: On February 24, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.3 yuan/kg, a 0.2% decrease from February 14 [45] - **Seasonal decline in the agricultural product price index**: On February 24, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.8% compared with February 14. Different agricultural products showed different price trends [50] 2.2 PPI: Rising Oil Prices - **Rising oil prices**: On February 24, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.4 and 65.6 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 1.8% and 5.3% increase from February 17 [53] - **Falling copper and aluminum prices**: On February 24, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.4% and 1.8% respectively compared with February 17. The domestic commodity index also had a decline in the month - on - month comparison [58] - **Most industrial product prices falling month - on - month**: Since February, most industrial product prices have fallen, with power coal prices rising month - on - month and other products falling, mainly rebar and cement [61]

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 26 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货2月25日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2604 | 1,342.5 | 1,339.0 | 1,278.6 | 1,303.6 | -63.9 | -4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

集运欧线：EC下跌1.42%。2月底现货运价大柜均价维持在2080美元左右，测算下来对应1400点左右，实际贴水 幅度收窄，同时市场内含淡季预期，现货层面可博弈的驱动相对有限。周二马士基新开舱3月第一周，大柜报 价维持1900美元，持平于2月后三周报价，未见提涨，对比于2月初多家船司表价宣涨3月运价，马士基3月第一 周相对务实的开舱一定程度传递挺价可能证伪，但由于是持平而非降价再加上当前市场的贴水，节前预计偏向 震荡格局。节后进入光伏抢出口的验证期，同时也迎来3月涨价函实际落地成色的验证期，抢出口带来的货量 预期叠加船司积极挺价，关注节后现货可能带来的预期证伪。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | | EC2604 | 1177.9 | -1.42 | 17204 ...

| 现货指数 | 指标 | 最新一期 | 环比涨跌幅 | 上一期 | 环比涨跌幅 | 上上一期 | 环比涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （周度） | SCFIS-点 | 1657.94 | -7.5% | 1792.14 | -3.6% | 1859.31 | -4.9% | | SCFI-$/TEU | | 1403 | -1.1% | 1418 | -11.1% | 1595 | -4.8% | | 现货运价 | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1568 | 1.1% | 1551 | 0.0% | 1551 | 0.0% | | （日度） | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2630 | -0.2% | 2636 | 0.0% | 2636 | 0.0% | | | | | 基价差（点） | | | | | | 上一交易日基 | 478.94 | | 上上一交易 | 419.94 | | 环比变化 | 59 | | 差 | | | 日基差 | | | | | -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 04 contract is neutral. In the medium term, the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3]. - For far - month contracts, it's difficult to anchor the valuation of peak - season contracts, and it's hard to predict shipping companies' price - adjustment behavior. So, cautious operation is advised. The 10 - contract valuation is moderately high, and the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained [3]. - For new contracts, referring to historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges of the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The subsequent strategy is mainly to short the 09 contract and long the 07 contract, but the valuation given by the market is already relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the off - peak to peak season transition point, and attention should be paid to the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3]. - Before the Spring Festival holiday, frequent position - closing operations by funds are expected to cause large market fluctuations. Prudent operation is advised this week [3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2604 closed at 1179.0 with a - 4.77% change, EC2605 at 1273.0, EC2606 at 1499.8 with a - 3.43% change, EC2608 at 1576.3 with a - 2.38% change, EC2610 at 1110.9 with a - 1.35% change, and EC2612 at 1380.0 with a - 3.19% change [2]. - The trading volume of EC2604 and EC2605 combined was 29560, and the open interest was 33899 with a change of 2767. The trading volume of EC2606 was 4155, and the open interest was 14740 with a change of 14. The trading volume of EC2608 was 340, and the open interest was 1416 with a change of 2. The trading volume of EC2610 was 1093, and the open interest was 8071 with a change of 178. The trading volume of EC2612 was 38, and the open interest was 127 with a change of - 11 [2]. - The month - spread of EC2604 - 2606 was - 320.8 (day - on - day change: - 5.8, week - on - week change: - 34.4), and the month - spread of EC2606 - 2610 was 388.9 (day - on - day change: - 38.0, week - on - week change: 5.8) [2]. Spot Market Information - The spot price (European line) on 2026/2/9 was 1657.94 points, a - 7.49% change from the previous period [2]. - The SCFI (European line) on 2026/2/6 was 1403 dollars/TEU, a - 1.06% change from the previous period [2]. - In Week 7, MSK's opening price was 1950 dollars (a decrease of 100 dollars compared to the previous period), PA was around 2000 dollars, MSC was 2140 dollars, OA was 2300 dollars. The central price was 2130 dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. In Week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price remained at 1950 dollars. In March, MSC led a price - increase notice, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL, with the European line price expected to rise to 3000 - 3100 dollars. On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 10 remained at 1950 dollars [4]. Related News - On February 10, Israel's Defense Forces were formulating a plan to launch a new offensive in the Gaza Strip to disarm Hamas [5]. - On February 11, the US military in Qatar loaded missiles onto mobile platforms. Since January, as the tension between the US and Iran escalated, the US military at the Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar loaded missiles onto mobile launch platforms this month [5].