| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶信宁 | 2025年11月28日 | 全历史分位数 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 价差 | 品种 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -22.80 | 1.82 | 40.50% | 20,30% | H期现价差 | -2.67 | 27.00% | -9.87 | 21.50% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | 16.40% | IC期现价差 | -55.08 | 0.56 | 41.30% | -6.21 | 24.90% | IM期现价差 | -78.45 | 65.00% | 次月-当月 | -15.60 | -2.20 | 27.4096 | 28.00% | | | 李月-当月 | -32.40 ...

Group 1 - The film and theater sector is experiencing a downturn, with Huayi Brothers hitting the daily limit down, and other companies like China Film, Huace Film, Wenguang Holdings, and Ciwen Media also declining [3][5]. - The A-share market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.11%, Shenzhen Component down 0.04%, and ChiNext down 0.04% [5][6]. - The shipping index (European line) saw a significant increase of over 5.00%, currently reported at 1448.0 points [4]. Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index up 0.25%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.43% [7][8]. - Semiconductor stocks showed positive movement, with SMIC rising nearly 2%, and the non-ferrous metals sector continued to rise, with Zijin Mining also up nearly 2% [8].

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 28 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货11月27日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | （%） | | | | | EC2512 | 1,628.9 | 1,613.0 | 1,612. ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.11%, Shenzhen Component down 0.04%, and ChiNext down 0.04% [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.25%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.43%, with notable gains in tech stocks such as SMIC, which increased by nearly 2% [3][4] - The shipping index (European line) saw a significant increase of over 5.00%, currently reported at 1448.0 points [1] Group 2 - In the A-share market, sectors such as precious metals, aerospace equipment, and oil and gas were active, while sectors like coke and aquaculture showed weakness [1] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 301.3 billion yuan for 7-day terms at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 375 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today [4] - The RMB/USD central parity rate was reported at 7.0789, depreciating by 10 basis points from the previous trading day's rate of 7.0779 [4]

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 当日行情： 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货11月26日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2512 | 1,697.4 | 1,612.5 | 1,622.4 | 1,628.9 | -7 ...

11月24日，SCFIS（欧洲航线）指数报1639.37点，与上期相比涨20.7%。线上运价方面，11月25日，以 马士基在内多家船司下调12月运价，马士基12月11日（第50周）开舱价1420/2200，其中大柜价格下调 300；HMM12月上半月大柜报价下调至2335-2535；ONE12月上半月大柜报价2435，下调600。消息面， 市场炒作马士基红海复航消息，夜间，据金十资讯报道，马士基发言人称苏伊士运河管理局此前关于将 于12月恢复通航的声明不实。综合而言，马士基12月复航预期消退，多家船司下调12月运价，市场对宣 涨落地信心不足，集运期价或震荡运行，期价随资金博弈波动，谨慎操作。 机构 核心观点 广州期货 集运期价或震荡运行 申银万国期货 集运02合约预计中枢逐渐下移 广州期货：集运期价或震荡运行 11月26日盘中，集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1373.0点。截止发稿， 集运指数（欧线）主力合约报1402.6点，跌幅6.61%。 集运指数（欧线）期货主力跌超6%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 申银万国期货：集运02合约预计中枢逐渐下移 MSK新开舱第50周，至 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot SCFIS index rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected, but the shipping companies' price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's quotes are the most aggressive, suppressing the price increase space of other airlines. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Considering that February is a traditional peak season, the market may conduct incentive games for the pre-Spring Festival shipping rush. Shorting is not cost-effective. Pay attention to the possibility that the off-season April contract may be overvalued, and focus on the positive spread opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The SCFIS index rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected, but the shipping companies' price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's quotes are the most aggressive, suppressing the price increase space of other airlines. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Pay attention to the actual implementation of cargo volume and price increases [8] - Operation suggestions: Considering that February is a traditional peak season, the market may conduct incentive games for the pre-Spring Festival shipping rush. Shorting is not cost-effective. Pay attention to the possibility that the off-season April contract may be overvalued, and focus on the positive spread opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 2. Industry News - From November 17th to November 21st, the China Export Container Transport Market was basically stable, and the freight rates in the long-haul routes showed an adjustment trend, with the comprehensive index declining. On November 21st, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index was 1393.56 points, a 4.0% decrease from the previous period [9] - European routes: The initial value of the eurozone's consumer confidence index in November was -14.2, lower than market expectations, indicating that consumers remain cautious about the economic outlook and consumer demand is still suppressed. The recovery prospects of the European economy still face challenges. This week, the shipping demand lacked further growth momentum, and the spot market booking prices declined. On November 21st, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in Europe (ocean freight and ocean freight surcharges) was $1367/TEU, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean routes: The supply-demand fundamentals are slightly better than those of European routes, and the market freight rates increased slightly. On November 21st, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the Mediterranean (ocean freight and ocean freight surcharges) was $2055/TEU, a 1.3% increase from the previous period [9] - North American routes: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non-farm payrolls report was postponed to this week. The number of new jobs in September was 119,000, better than market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years. The weak performance of the employment market indicates that the future US economic outlook is not optimistic. This week, the shipping demand growth was weak, and the market freight rates continued to decline. On November 21st, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and US East (ocean freight and ocean freight surcharges) were $1645/FEU and $2384/FEU respectively, a 9.8% and 8.3% decrease from the previous period [10] - Middle East situation: After Israel launched an air strike on Gaza, Hamas threatened to end the ceasefire agreement. The Israeli Defense Forces and Shin Bet carried out a coordinated operation in the Gaza Strip, targeting senior Hamas members involved in major attacks, maritime infiltration, tunnel construction, and hostage-taking. The US has informed mediators and partner countries preparing to join the Gaza International Stabilization Force that if Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel will be allowed to resume military operations. The Israeli military carried out multiple air strikes in Lebanon, and the situation may continue to escalate [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | November 24, 2025 | November 17, 2025 | Change | Week-on-Week Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Routes (Basic Ports) | 1639.37 | 1357.67 | +281.7 | +20.7% | | SCFIS: US West Routes (Basic Ports) | 1107.85 | 1238.42 | -130.57 | -10.5% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 | 1,779.7 | 1,792.3 | 1,650.0 | 1,697.4 | -129.7 | -7.29% | 6884 | 6454 | -408 | | EC2602 | 1,576.2 | 1,590.0 | 1,453.5 | 1,501.8 | -122.7 | -7.78% | 51412 | 48279 | 4946 | | EC2604 | 1,141.0 | 1,159.0 | 1,126.4 | 1,140.2 | -14.6 | -1.28% | 5004 | 17016 | 920 | | EC2606 | 1,363.9 | 1,378.4 | 1,338.0 | 1,354.1 | -25.9 | -1.90% | 272 | 1629 | 95 | | EC2608 | 1,481.1 | 1,498.0 | 1,464.0 | 1,471.6 | -17.1 | -1.15% | 171 | 1399 | 74 | | EC2610 | 1,108.1 | 1,113.0 | 1,108.0 | 1,111.3 | -0.1 | -0.01% | 563 | 2556 | 65 | [6] 3.3 Shipping-related Data Charts - The report provides charts on European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][21]

Week48整体均值2200美金 (折盘1540点左右) Week49线下GEMIN[和PA联盟报价在2300-2500之间，OA在2300-2600，均值约2400美金（折盘1650点左右） 周一，OOCL调降至2530，CMA调降至2645美金, HPL降价到2300，OOCL降到2300。 周 马士基对week50开舱2200美金 集运星报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 台的 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 募 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1650.0 | -7 229% | -10.6 | 6884 | | 6454 | -408 | | | EC2602 | | 1453.5 | -7.34% | 185.9 | 51412 | | 48279 | 4946 | | | EC2604 | | 1126.4 | -1 -37% | 513.0 | 5004 ...

11月25日，集运期货市场延续弱势格局，多空力量仍在消息面博弈中激烈交锋，截至收盘，主力2602合 约收跌近8%，领跌市场。 截至11月24日，上海出口集装箱结算运价指数（欧洲航线）报1639.37点，虽较上期上涨20.7%，但市场 对未来走势仍持谨慎态度。船司挺价力度疲弱，部分船司继续调降月末即期运价以增加揽货。 地缘风险缓和与运力扩张共同施压市场，而机构指出，市场后续将博弈12月下旬和1月潜在宣涨以及落 地成色。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：懒人财知道） 01下跌原因 地缘风险出现缓和信号是导致本轮下跌的主要因素之一。 据外媒报道，胡塞武装宣布停止对红海船只的袭击，这被市场视为苏伊士航运的积极信号。另一方面， 全球运力供给持续扩张也给市场带来压力。最新数据显示，全球运营集装箱船总数增加至7465艘，全球 运营总运力为33432065TEU。 在需求未见实质回暖的背景下，当前船司挺价力度疲弱，部分船司继续调降月末即期运价增加揽货。马 士基11月27日上海-鹿特丹最新报价仅为1240美元/TEU和2080美元/FEU，这一定价策略反映出市场实际 需求的疲软。 10月份中国的制造业PMI数据超季节性回落，新出口订单 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]