行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 28 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货8月27日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,327.8 | 1,327.8 | 1,316.0 | 1,329.0 | -11.8 | -0 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 27 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货8月26日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,356.3 | 1,345.0 | 1,318.9 | 1,327.8 | -37.4 | -2.76 | 2577 ...

Felection | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 台钓 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命营 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2508 | | 2136.0 | 0.39 | -145.8 | | 138 | 1877 | -91 | | | EC2510 | | 1358.0 | 3.74 | 632.2 | 39234 | | 54357 | 102 | | | EC2512 | | 1696.7 | 2.14 | 293.5 | 7289 | | 13515 | 220 | | | EC2602 | | 1496.9 | 2.18 | 493.3 | 1070 | | 4497 | ২ | | | EC2604 | | 1284.0 | 1.54 | 706.2 | 1248 | | 5803 | -33 | | | EC2606 | | 1445.7 | 1.10 | 5 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 本周 SCFIS 回落至 2000 点以下为连续六周回落，但线上报价下跌趋势有所企 稳并未进一步下调，以上海至鹿特丹航线为例，8 月第四周 40GP 大柜线上报价最 低为马士基报 2384 美元，并未进一步下跌，其余航司也保持同步稳定，报价集中 在 2500~2900 美元区间。达飞、HPL、ONE 报出 9 月运价，多较 8 月末上涨显示挺 价意愿，关注其余航司是否跟同挺价，或支撑后期降价幅度放缓。考虑关税不确 定性短期虽已落地但对外贸的实际伤害仍大，需求 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 8 月 26 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 二、行业要闻 8 月 11 日至 8 月 15 日，中国出口集装箱运输市场继续调整行情，多数航线市场 运价走低，拖累综合指数下跌。据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，中国 7 月规 模以上工业增加值同比增速 5.7%，国民经济继续保持稳中有进发展态势，展现出 较强韧性和活力。8 月 15 日，上海航运交易所发布的上海出口集装箱综合运价指 数为 1460.19 点，较上期下跌 2.0%。欧洲航线，据欧洲经济研究中心公布的数据 显示，欧洲主要国家德国 8 月 ZEW 经济景气指数跌至 34.7，大幅低于市场预期， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive overview of various financial markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping, and provide schedules of economic data releases. Each section details the latest market data, price changes, and relevant indicators, offering insights for investors to assess market trends and potential investment opportunities. Summary by Directory Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The F spot-futures spread is -1.40, with a change of 5.78 from the previous day, and a 1-year historical percentile of 58.30%. Other spreads such as H spot-futures spread, IC and IM inter - period spreads also show different values and changes [1]. - Cross - variety ratios like CSI 500/SSE 300, CSI 200/CSI 50, etc., have their own latest values, changes, and historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - For basis, the TS basis has an IRR of 1.2502, a latest value of 0.0243, and a change of - 0.0023 from the previous day, with a percentile of 11.20% since listing. Similar data is provided for TF, T, and TL basis [2]. - Inter - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL show different values and changes, as well as their respective historical percentiles [2]. - Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., also have corresponding values, changes, and historical percentiles [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - Domestic futures closing prices: The AU2510 contract closed at 772.68 yuan/gram, down 2.38 yuan (-0.31%) from the previous day; the AG2510 contract closed at 9042 yuan/kg, down 145 yuan (-1.58%) [6]. - Foreign futures closing prices: The COMEX gold main contract closed at 3392.20 US dollars/ounce, up 33.30 dollars (0.99%); the COMEX silver main contract closed at 37.90 US dollars/ounce, up 0.57 dollars (1.51%) [6]. - Spot prices: London gold was at 3347.34 US dollars/ounce, up 31.82 dollars (0.96%); London silver was at 37.86 US dollars/ounce, up 0.48 dollars (1.28%) [6]. - Basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and position data are also provided [6]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - Spot quotes: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe freight rate was 2364 US dollars/FEU, up 6 dollars (0.25%); CMA CGM's was 2913 US dollars/FEU, up 34 dollars (1.18%), etc. [8]. - Shipping indices: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index was 2180.17, down 55.3 (-2.47%); the SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29, up 24.1 (2.23%) [8]. - Futures prices and basis: The EC2602 contract was at 1532.0, down 3.4 (-0.22%); the basis of the main contract was 700.2, down 43.0 (-5.79%) [8]. - Fundamental data: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3289.97 FTEU; Shanghai port on - time rate was 32.58, down 1.99 (-5.76%) [8]. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report - Overseas data includes economic indicators such as eurozone 8 - month manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence index, and US initial jobless claims, etc. [9]. - Domestic data includes steel production, inventory, and utilization rate, as well as various commodity data such as coal, coke, and lithium carbonate [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is $2,850 (2,000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is $2,575 (1,770 points). Among them, the PA Alliance offers $2,500, MSK offers $2,300, and the OA Alliance offers $2,700 - $2,800. From a fundamental perspective, in week 33, MSK had better cargo collection, OA was average, and PA was poor. In week 34, cargo collection significantly declined, and some shipping companies faced pressure to accept cargo. This week, the overall shipping capacity for September has been reduced due to an additional suspension of sailings by the PA Alliance in week 37. The average weekly shipping capacities in August, September (tentatively), and October (tentatively) 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, the capacities are 328,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU. In terms of strategy, the overall logic of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. This is mainly because the overall situation in September is loose, and the subsequent driving forces are weak. Currently, the October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot price, and it is expected that there is still room for further decline. The valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear and is more affected by driving forces. However, due to low positions, they are greatly affected by macro and capital behaviors [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For the EC2508 contract, the previous closing price was 2,088.2, with a change of 0.21%, a basis of 147.3, a previous trading volume of 250, a previous open interest of 2,452, and an open interest change of - 54. For other contracts (EC2510, EC2512, etc.), detailed price, change, basis, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change data are also provided [2]. - Regarding the month - to - month spreads, for example, the EC2508 - 2510 spread was 715.1, with comparisons to the previous one, two, and three days and percentage changes also given [2]. Spot Index Information - The SCHIS index, updated weekly on Mondays, was 2,235.48 on August 11, 2025, with a change of - 2.71% compared to the previous period. The SCFI index, updated weekly on Fridays, was $1,820/TEU on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 7.19% compared to the previous period. The CCFI index, updated weekly on Fridays, was 1,790.47 on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 0.48% compared to the previous period. The NCFI index was 1,188.69 on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 5.49% compared to the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is $2,850 (2,000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is $2,575 (1,770 points). On Monday, EMC's price dropped by $200 to $2,760, MSC's price dropped by $250 to $2,590, and MSK's price rose from $2,300 to $2,490 [3]. Related News - On August 19, Middle - East media reported that Hamas agreed to a 60 - day cease - fire and release half of the detainees. Israeli media reported that Israel received Hamas' latest cease - fire proposal. Note that the XSI - C index is released with a three - day delay [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. Different markets show diverse trends and are influenced by a variety of factors such as policy, supply - demand relationships, and international events. For example, the stock index futures market is boosted by TMT sectors and policy expectations; the treasury bond futures market is under pressure due to multiple negative factors; the precious metals market fluctuates with geopolitical events; and various commodity markets are affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][5][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices rose significantly on Monday, with TMT sectors leading the gain. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and their basis was further repaired. Policy expectations and market sentiment are positive, but near the interim report performance period, profit improvement needs data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at the strike price of around 6600 with a mild bullish view [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields rose significantly. Affected by multiple negative factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, the rising stock market, and tax - period capital convergence, the bond market sentiment weakened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and focus on market sentiment and key interest rate support levels [5][7] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fluctuated. The meeting of leaders from the US, Ukraine, and Europe brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, increasing risk appetite. Gold prices closed slightly down, and silver prices closed slightly up. It is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through gold call options when the price corrects, and maintain a low - buying strategy for silver or build a bullish spread option strategy [8][9][10] Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies vary, and the container shipping index shows a mixed trend. The market is in a weak - shock state. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, it is expected that the price of the October off - season contract will be lower than last year. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper is high, suppressing downstream procurement. The short - term trading focus is on interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of copper concentrate is slightly relaxed, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline slightly in August. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78000 - 79500 [13][15][16] - **Alumina**: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The production capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The inventory of ports decreases, and the registered warehouse receipts increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3300 in the short term, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [17][18] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum decreases. The production capacity is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases, leading to an increase in inventory. Affected by the expansion of US import tariffs, the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be under high - level pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20000 - 21000 [20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in major consumption areas is close to full. The supply is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19600 - 20400 [22][23] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc decreases. The supply of zinc ore is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increases. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22000 - 23000 [23][24][26] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin decreases. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the import volume is low. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [27][28][29] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel increases slightly. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is generally stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory increases slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 118000 - 126000 [29][30][31] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel increases slightly. The cost is supported, but the demand is weak. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12800 - 13500 [32][33][35] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate increases. The supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory decreases slightly. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 86000 - 92000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and try to go long lightly at low prices [36][37][39] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, and the steel mill's profit improved. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, with inventory accumulating mainly in traders. Considering the expected production restrictions in the middle and late August, it is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate, and the support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 and 3150 respectively [40][41][42] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. The global shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased. The demand from steel mills was high, and the inventory increased slightly. Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the late period, it is recommended to short at high prices [43][44] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal was stable. The demand from downstream industries was high but slowed down. The inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to short at high prices for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage [45][47][48] - **Coke**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented, and the seventh round was initiated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was still resilient. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage [49][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The开机 rate of oil mills decreased slightly. The fundamental news shows that the US soybean crushing volume increased, and the EU's oilseed import decreased. The USDA report supported the US soybean price, but there was still upward pressure. It is recommended to take long - term long positions at low prices [51][52][53] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated at a low level. The profit of pig farming varied, and the average weight of pigs increased slightly. With the expected increase in group - farmed pig sales in August and the need for small - scale farmers to sell large - weight pigs, the future pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to short blindly for far - month contracts [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was mixed. The supply pressure was obvious, and the demand was weak. The inventory in Guangzhou ports decreased. It is expected that the corn price will be weak and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [56][57][58] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price oscillated at a high level. The Brazilian sugar production increased, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. The domestic sugar import in July was expected to be much higher than last year. It is recommended to maintain a short - on - rebound strategy [59] - **Cotton**: After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the industrial downstream improved slightly. The inventory of cotton yarn decreased slightly, and the spinning mill's operation rate remained stable. The cotton price has support at low levels, and it is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the traditional peak - season demand [60]