1. Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The current shipping market is in the off - season, with supply of shipping capacity in April at a historically high level. The potential blockade risk in the Mandatory Straits has limited impact on European routes, and as the situation in the Hormuz Strait calms down, the market may return to the fundamental logic of oversupply. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for near - term off - season contracts [7] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The April spot quotes are stable, but some airlines are cutting prices to attract cargo. Maersk's opening price for the first week of April is $2300 per large container, and the PA Alliance quotes $2500 per large container, while offline prices have dropped to $1800 - $1900, indicating weak demand [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the off - season and high supply, and the limited impact of the Mandatory Straits risk, focus on short - selling opportunities for near - term off - season contracts [7] 4.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: Due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, the China export container shipping market is facing challenges. Most long - distance route freight rates have risen this week, driving up the comprehensive index. On March 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index was 1826.77 points, up 7.0% from the previous period [8] - **European Routes**: The preliminary manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4, better than expected. However, the eurozone's composite PMI in March dropped to 50.5, the lowest since May last year. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European base ports was $1703/TEU, up 4.1% from the previous period [8] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weaker than those of European routes, and the market freight rate has slightly declined. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean base ports was $2764/TEU, down 0.7% from the previous period [8] - **North American Routes**: The preliminary composite PMI in the US in March dropped to 51.4, hitting an 11 - month low. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to the US West and East base ports on March 27 was $2352/FEU and $3264/FEU respectively, up 14.5% and 11.7% from the previous period [8][9] - **Persian Gulf Routes**: The military conflict in the Middle East continues, and the freight rate continues to rise. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Persian Gulf base ports was $3728/TEU, up 12.2% from the previous period [9] - **Geopolitical News**: Trump plans to end the military action against Iran through diplomatic means; China has three ships passing through the Hormuz Strait; Iran has various statements and actions regarding the war and the Hormuz Strait, and has proposed a bill to charge ships passing through the Hormuz Strait [9] 4.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From March 23 to 30, 2026, the SCFIS for European routes increased by 3.5% (from 1693.26 to 1752.54), and the SCFIS for US West routes increased by 23.4% (from 1024.11 to 1263.4) [11] - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of multiple contracts such as EC2604 - EC2612 on March 31, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report includes multiple charts related to shipping data, such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe base port freight rates, etc. [18][22]

Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on the transportation sector, particularly oil shipping, which is expected to maintain high prices due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [3][14] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is identified as having dual support from declining US Treasury yields and strong outbound business development, making it a key area for investment [11] - The report suggests that the A-share market may see a breakthrough opportunity in April, supported by domestic fundamentals and long-term capital [12] Transportation Sector - Oil shipping is currently experiencing low vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with only about 10 vessels passing daily since the onset of conflict, indicating a rebalancing in the global oil shipping market [14] - China National Airlines is projected to see stable revenue growth in 2025, although it remains unprofitable, indicating a transitional phase in its financial recovery [14] - The new regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles in Beijing, effective May 1, 2026, will enforce stricter management of airspace and outdoor flights [14] Industry Performance - The report notes that the social services sector has seen a decline of 5.46% in the past two weeks, ranking 17th among 31 sectors, with travel and retail sectors particularly affected [19] - The upcoming Qingming Festival and spring break are expected to boost travel demand significantly, with a notable increase in search and booking activity for flights and accommodations [20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on opportunities in the oil shipping, dry bulk, and container shipping sectors due to the evolving geopolitical landscape [16] - Specific stocks such as China Merchants Energy and China National Offshore Oil are highlighted for potential investment [16] - The report also suggests monitoring the recovery of the cross-border e-commerce logistics and engineering logistics sectors, with specific companies recommended for investment [17]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The escalation of geopolitical conflicts has heightened inflation expectations, leading to increased commodity prices due to supply shocks. [1] - **Commodity Focus**: Key commodities include gold (due to its safe-haven status), lithium/tungsten (driven by demand from new energy and military sectors), and electrolytic aluminum (with 15% of capacity facing interruption risks). [1][3] - **Coal Market**: The coal industry is entering a peak season from April to June, with potential price increases for thermal coal reaching 1,000 CNY/ton due to supply-demand imbalances. [1][10] - **Oil Supply Gap**: A significant oil supply gap of 7-8 million barrels per day is anticipated, with Asian refineries facing shortages by mid-April. [1][2] Key Investment Insights - **Gold Market Dynamics**: Recent fluctuations in gold prices reflect a shift from war risk to inflation fears, with significant selling pressure from the Turkish central bank. [3][4] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Risks**: Attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain pose a serious threat to global supply, with potential disruptions affecting 15% of electrolytic aluminum production. [4] - **Oil Shipping Sector**: Oil shipping stocks are currently benefiting from short-term supply shortages due to geopolitical tensions, but long-term demand for inventory replenishment remains a key factor not fully priced in. [5] - **Container Shipping Market**: The geopolitical situation has led to increased risks in the Red Sea, affecting shipping routes and supporting container shipping rates. [6] Sector-Specific Developments - **Coal Sector Recommendations**: Companies like Yancoal Australia are recommended due to their strong correlation with coal prices and minimal domestic price control risks. [11] - **Airline Sector Outlook**: A moderate increase in aviation fuel prices is expected, which may positively impact airline stock valuations. [7][8] - **Chemical Industry Trends**: Despite high oil prices, the chemical sector shows signs of improvement, with specific focus on cost-effective alternative technologies. [19][20] Additional Considerations - **Debt Market Outlook**: Short-term credit bonds are favored, while long-term bonds are advised to be monitored for potential opportunities. [12][15] - **Market Sentiment**: The current market sentiment reflects a cautious approach towards inflation and geopolitical risks, with a focus on maintaining balanced portfolios. [13][15] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the implications of geopolitical tensions on various sectors and investment opportunities.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The European line of container shipping (EC) dropped 0.84%. After the US-Iran conflict, the European line has passed the first stage of sharp freight rate increases due to supply chain uncertainties. Now, the main logic is gradually returning to supply-demand pricing, though still affected by geopolitical changes. In the 15th week, MSK's new large container quote was $2300, down $300 week-on-week. MSC's online quote for the first half of April was $2852, basically the same as late March. Historically, cargo volume increases in April after the resumption of work. However, this year, the end of the rush to export products like photovoltaic may bring pressure on cargo volume and freight rates. With the geopolitical conflict ongoing, shipping companies may raise prices. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to other shipping companies' quotes [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2604: The latest transaction price was 1771.4 points, up 3.00%. The trading volume was 27497 (a week-on-week increase of 3062), and the open interest was 17770 (a week-on-week decrease of 2145). The long position of the top 20 members was 10876, the short position was 11883, and the net long position was -1007 [2] - EC2606: The latest transaction price was 2364.1 points, up 14.40%. The trading volume was 11230 (a week-on-week increase of 2239), and the open interest was 13836 (a week-on-week increase of 245) [2] - EC2608: The latest transaction price was 2354.2 points, up 9.74%. The trading volume was 956 (a week-on-week increase of 401), and the open interest was 2814 (a week-on-week increase of 74) [2] - EC2610: The latest transaction price was 1567.9 points, up 6.72%. The trading volume was 2498 (a week-on-week increase of 502), and the open interest was 7521 (a week-on-week decrease of 112) [2] - EC2612: The latest transaction price was 1716.7 points, up 6.61%. The trading volume was 146 (a week-on-week increase of 83), and the open interest was 436 (a week-on-week increase of 22) [2] - Total: The total trading volume was 42327, and the total open interest was 42377. The long position of the top 20 members was 10876, the short position was 11883, and the net long position was -1007 [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly Spot Index: SCFIS was 1693.26 points, up 8.8% week-on-week; SCFI was $1636/TEU, up 1.1% week-on-week [4] - Daily Spot Freight Rates: TCI(20GP) was $1899/TEU, up 1.8% week-on-week; TCI(40GP) was $3167/FEU, up 1.2% week-on-week [4] Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was -109.74 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was -205.64 points, with a week-on-week change of 95.9 points [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping European line dropped 6.04%. The potential negotiation between the US and Iran and the consideration of a one - month cease - fire by the US led to a geopolitical cooling and a synchronous callback of EC. MSC's new weekly cabin in the 15th week had a large - container quote of $2300, a $300 decrease from the previous week. Its online quote for the first half of April was $2852, basically the same as that in late March. In April, cargo volume usually increases with the completion of resumption of work, but this year, the end of the rush - export of products like photovoltaic may bring pressure on cargo volume and freight rates. With the geopolitical conflict not cooling down, shipping companies tend to raise and maintain prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and the quotes of other shipping companies should be monitored [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest transaction price, latest increase/decrease, trading volume, and other data of different EC contracts (such as EC2604, EC2606, etc.) are presented. For example, EC2604 had a latest transaction price of 1803 points, a latest increase of 3.00%, a trading volume of 27497 (with a 3062 increase from the previous period), and a net long - position of - 1007. The total trading volume was 42327, and the total open interest was 42377 [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - The latest spot freight rate data for European routes are provided. The SCFIS index was 1693.26 points, with an 8.8% week - on - week increase; SCFI was $1636/TEU, with a 1.1% increase. The TCI (20GP) was $1866/TEU with no change, and TCI (40GP) was $3128/FEU with no change [4] Basis Spread - The basis spread of the container shipping European line futures main contract showed a certain trend. The basis spread on the previous trading day was - 109.74, and on the day before the previous trading day was - 205.64, with a change of 95.9 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping line (EC) has declined by 5.4%. After the first - stage sharp price increase due to the US - Iran conflict, the main pricing logic of the European line is gradually returning to supply - demand factors, though sentiment is still affected by geopolitical changes. In April, cargo volume is expected to increase seasonally, but there may be downward pressure on cargo volume due to the end of the rush - export of photovoltaic products and on freight rates. In the case of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, shipping companies tend to raise and maintain prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the quotes of other shipping companies [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Change) | Open Interest (Change) | Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | Short Positions (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2604 | 1898.9 | 3.00 | 27497 (3062) | 17770 (-2145) | 10876 | 11883 | -1007 | | EC2606 | 2692.9 | 14.40 | 11230 (2239) | 13836 (245) | - | - | - | | EC2608 | 2564 | 9.74 | 956 (401) | 2814 (74) | - | - | - | | EC2610 | 1648 | 6.72 | 2498 (502) | 7521 (-112) | - | - | - | | EC2612 | 1815 | 6.61 | 146 (83) | 436 (22) | - | - | - | | Total | - | - | 42327 | 42377 | 10876 | 11883 | -1007 | [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | MoM Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | MoM Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | MoM Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1693.26 | 8.8% | 1556.49 | 0.7% | 1545.46 | 5.6% | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1636 | 1.1% | 1618 | 11.4% | 1452 | 2.3% | | Spot Freight Rates (Daily) | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1866 | -3.1% | 1925 | 0.0% | 1925 | 0.0% | | | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 3128 | -3.7% | 3247 | 0.0% | 3247 | 0.0% | [4] Basis Spread (Points) - The basis spread of the previous trading day was - 264.14, and that of the day before the previous trading day was 123.37, with a change of - 387.51 [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, on various sectors including oil, gas, coal, and aluminum industries. [1][2][3] Oil and Gas Sector - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in a daily supply gap of 15 million barrels, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) only able to cover 30% of this gap. [1] - If the blockade continues for three months, oil prices could rise to $180 per barrel, with a projected increase of $10-15 per barrel in the oil price average over the next three years. [1][3] - Upstream oil and gas companies are favored due to their lower internal oil price forecasts, which are around $70 per barrel, compared to current spot prices. [3] - Refining companies are expected to benefit from inventory gains in Q1, but may face challenges in Q2 due to high costs and reduced operating rates. [1][4] - Natural gas prices are currently low but are expected to rise if supply disruptions continue, with potential prices reaching $40-45 per MMBTU if disruptions last three months. [5][6] Coal Sector - The coal market is experiencing a divergence, with international coal prices rising due to increased demand as a substitute for oil and gas. [6][7] - Domestic coal prices are under pressure due to seasonal factors, but there is potential for price recovery if geopolitical tensions persist. [7] - Companies with significant international coal exposure, such as Yancoal Australia and Yanzhou Coal, are recommended for investment. [8] Aluminum Sector - The aluminum industry faces supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, with a potential reduction of 3-9% in global supply from the Middle East and Europe. [1][9][10] - Energy costs and supply chain interruptions are driving aluminum prices higher, with recommendations to focus on companies with high self-sufficiency in energy and raw materials. [10] Aviation Sector - Rising oil prices are increasing operational costs for airlines, with significant impacts expected in Q2 as fuel prices adjust. [11][12] - Despite current challenges, the aviation sector shows potential for recovery, with low valuations and a solid demand outlook during peak travel seasons. [12] Transportation Sector - The coal transportation sector, particularly companies like Daqin Railway, is expected to benefit from increased coal demand due to geopolitical tensions. [12] - Daqin Railway's valuation is currently low, and it has strong cash flow, making it an attractive investment opportunity. [12] Shipping Industry - The shipping industry is experiencing rising freight rates due to geopolitical tensions, with potential for further increases if disruptions continue. [13] - Oil shipping rates remain high, but volumes may be affected by the current geopolitical climate, leading to potential adjustments in stock valuations. [13] Economic Implications - The rise in energy prices is expected to significantly impact the Producer Price Index (PPI), with projections of a 1-2% increase in Q2. [16][17] - Despite these pressures, the overall monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for interest rate cuts in the future. [17] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, highlighting the implications of geopolitical tensions on various industries and investment opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the restructuring of global oil trade driven by geopolitical conflicts has significantly increased oil shipping demand, with expectations for continued growth in oil transportation due to rising crude oil production by 2025, leading to a potential super bull market in the oil shipping sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Oil Shipping Market - Oil shipping rates remain high, with attention on changes in the gray market [2] - The first phase of a "super bull market" is driven by geopolitical conflicts, leading to a restructuring of global oil trade, which has extended shipping distances and increased capacity utilization rates [2][3] - The second phase is expected to commence with increased global crude oil production, further driving oil shipping demand, while effective supply remains rigid [3] Group 2: Dry Bulk Shipping - A recovery in demand for dry bulk shipping is anticipated from 2023 to 2024, driven by post-pandemic growth, although a decline in demand is expected in the first half of 2025 due to production cuts in some steel mills [4] - The global iron ore production cycle is beginning, with significant projects like the West Simandou project expected to boost demand beyond expectations [5] Group 3: Container Shipping - The easing of tariffs is returning to a new normal, with a focus on the new trade dynamics between China and the U.S. [6] - The container shipping market has experienced two cycles of high prosperity over the past five years, with an increase in profitability [6][7] - Future years are expected to see larger vessels and supply pressures in the main shipping routes, with a pause in 301 sanctions aligning with expectations [7] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The company maintains a bullish rating on oil shipping, anticipating that high shipping rates will continue to exceed expectations, with profits in Q4 2025 expected to reach a ten-year high [8] - The gray market changes are expected to provide unexpected supply-demand options in the future [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The EC of the container shipping European line rose 3.07%. Maersk's new cabin in the 13th week maintained the price of 2200 US dollars for large containers to Rotterdam, indicating the difficulty of continuous price support for the European line without direct supply - chain impact during the traditional off - season. MSC slightly raised the price by 100 US dollars to 2740 US dollars for large containers in the second half of March. The average price of large containers of shipping companies in the 12th week was around 2600 US dollars, corresponding to an index of 1730 points. As the short - term geopolitical sentiment's impact on the market eases, the European line is expected to return to its seasonal pricing. Attention should be paid to the quotation of the OA and PA alliances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Volume (Change) | Open Interest (Change) | Long Position (Top 20 Members) | Short Position (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Position (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2604 | 2020.1 | 3.07 | 61827 (-4380) | 27408 (-1194) | 14967 | 18217 | -3250 | | EC2606 | 2436.9 | 6.90 | 18920 (2275) | 14972 (-643) | | | | | EC2608 | 2379 | 4.85 | 2043 (388) | 3138 (6) | | | | | EC2610 | 1580.4 | 3.95 | 5339 (757) | 8688 (-456) | | | | | EC2612 | 1875 | 3.02 | 162 (-9) | 403 (17) | | | | | Total | - | - | 88291 | 54609 | 14967 | 18217 | -3250 | [3] 3.2 Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | Increase/Decrease (%) | Previous Period | Increase/Decrease (%) | Two Periods Ago | Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1545.46 | 5.6% | 1463.4 | -7.0% | 1573.51 | -2.1% | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1452 | 2.3% | 1420 | 4.3% | 1361 | -3.0% | | Spot Freight Rate | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1841 | 0.0% | 1841 | 3.1% | 1785 | 10.0% | | (Daily) | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2991 | 0.0% | 2991 | 0.7% | 2969 | 10.0% | [5] 3.3 Basis Spread (Points) - The basis spread of the previous trading day was - 474.64, and that of the day before the previous trading day was - 447.24, with a change of - 27.4 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The EC of container shipping to Europe decreased by 13.92%. The easing of geopolitical tensions led to a market correction. As the short - term geopolitical impact on European line freight rates eases, European lines are expected to return to seasonal pricing, and attention should be paid to the quotes of the OA and PA alliances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (points) | Latest Change Rate (%) | Volume (Change) | Open Interest (Change) | Long Position (Top 20 Members) | Short Position (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Position (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2604 | 1848.9 | -13.92 | 60726 (-1910) | 27805 (-3397) | 15742 | 18266 | -2524 | | EC2606 | 2170 | -10.89 | 17369 (-1639) | 15447 (-3976) | | | | | EC2608 | 2157.6 | -10.81 | 2079 (-1529) | 2879 (-199) | | | | | EC2610 | 1459.2 | -10.15 | 7544 (-3250) | 9546 (-522) | | | | | EC2612 | 1782.9 | -8.02 | 347 (-1305) | 422 (-105) | | | | | Total | - | - | 88065 | 56099 | 15742 | 18266 | -2524 | [3] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | Change Rate (%) | Previous Period | Change Rate (%) | Two Periods Ago | Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - points | 1545.46 | 5.6 | 1463.4 | -7.0 | 1573.51 | -2.1 | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1452 | 2.3 | 1420 | 4.3 | 1361 | -3.0 | | Spot Freight Rates | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1785 | 10.0 | 1623 | 0.0 | 1623 | 0.0 | | (Daily) | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2969 | 10.0 | 2699 | 0.0 | 2699 | 0.0 | [5] Basis Spread (points) - The basis spread of the previous trading day was -303.44, and the basis spread of the day before the previous trading day was 387.5, with a change of -690.94 [7]