Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including daily and weekly price changes, and elaborates on the influencing factors and future trends of each commodity. The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has a significant impact on the prices of energy, metals, and agricultural products. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East suppress interest - rate cut expectations, but domestic policy expectations form a bottom support. After the Two Sessions, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan may bring unexpected information and drive the market stronger [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Domestic monetary policy is favorable for the bond market, and the US - Iran conflict increases trading activity [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: Geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz support spot freight rates, but regulatory pressure and market caution lead to short - term high - level oscillations [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The US - Iran conflict and US tariff policies bring uncertainties. Rising production costs in South Africa provide a long - term upward basis, but short - term adjustment risks exist due to delayed interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz weaken the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the rising US dollar and bond yields suppress precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to panic selling under liquidity risks [5]. - **Copper**: The approaching FOMC meeting and geopolitical conflicts suppress copper prices. Demand shows structural characteristics, and inventory reduction speed is the key to price trends [5]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of natural gas in Qatar affects the production of electrolytic aluminum. Short - term trends are dominated by the war situation [6]. - **Alumina**: Affected by the prices of aluminum and other varieties, it shows short - term price rebounds but a long - term surplus situation. Attention should be paid to new production capacity in March [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the price of Shanghai aluminum and has strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: Supply may be affected by the Iran situation, and demand is facing inventory pressure. Short - term prices may be suppressed, and future trends depend on the development of the Iran situation and inventory reduction [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Supply fluctuations in Indonesia increase uncertainty. The market is in the peak season, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of demand [9]. - **Tin**: Geopolitical factors are the main driver. Supply is tight, and demand is gradually recovering. High inventory suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term market is affected by the Middle East situation, but long - term demand growth supports prices. Attention should be paid to downstream production and inventory reduction in March [11]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The long - term development prospects are clear, but the short - term market is in a wide - range oscillation due to capacity cycle and supply - demand changes [12]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the impact of this week's delivery and secondary lead delivery [12]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Geopolitical conflicts in Iran drive up the prices of raw materials, providing cost support. However, high inventory and export resistance limit the short - term rebound [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Tight spot liquidity drives up prices, but concerns about supply sustainability increase the probability of short - term reversal [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The terminal demand verification period in March - April is affected by the late Spring Festival and geopolitical factors. The overall price of the black series may face downward pressure, and the price elasticity of coal and coke is restricted [14]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Although the cost support is increasing, weak downstream demand and high inventory limit the upward space [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The core driving factor is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and different attitudes of the conflicting parties increase price fluctuations [16]. - **Fuel Oil**: Supply constraints support the market, and the short - term strong situation is difficult to change [17]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to decrease, and inventory is seasonally increasing. Prices follow the cost of crude oil, and geopolitical factors are the main driver. Attention should be paid to price drops after the situation eases [17][18]. - **LPG**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz supports prices. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the short - term market is oscillating strongly [18]. - **Methanol**: Geopolitical conflicts and industry profit repair are the core driving factors. Attention should be paid to risks when the situation eases [19]. - **Plastics**: Middle - East conflicts lead to supply reduction expectations, and the market is turning to "supply decrease and demand increase", with prices rising [19]. - **Rubber**: Geopolitical and macro factors have a negative impact on demand. Synthetic rubber is oscillating strongly, and natural rubber is rising [20]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply pressure is high, and demand is relatively stable. Inventory is better than expected. The price space is limited, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of industrial contradictions [21]. - **Glass**: Cold - repair expectations continue, but high intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price increase. Demand needs to be verified [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is at a high level, demand is differentiated, and inventory is high. Export expectations and geopolitical emotions drive the market, but high inventory and weak domestic demand limit the upward space [23]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The market is mainly affected by weak post - Spring Festival demand, and price decline is limited, but the upward driving force is weak [24]. - **Oilseeds**: The expected Sino - US negotiation in April, rising planting costs, and improved export expectations drive up soybean prices. The domestic market follows the US soybean market [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market rebounds following crude oil, and policies in Indonesia and the US are favorable. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation and the US bio - fuel policy review [25]. - **Cotton**: Tight domestic supply - demand expectations support prices, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton and geopolitical conflicts pose pressure. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments [25]. - **Sugar**: Rising oil prices drive up the price of Brazilian ethanol, leading to expectations of tightened sugar supply. The short - term strong situation is expected to continue [26][27]. - **Eggs**: Concentrated demand release supports prices, but high egg - laying hen inventory limits the upward space [27]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on demand, and the current downstream sales are weak. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global market risk preference has risen due to the signal of easing in the Middle East situation, but there are still uncertainties in the short - term, and most markets are expected to be volatile [2]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, and different commodities have different trends and influencing factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The short - term is expected to be mainly volatile due to factors such as geopolitical risks and the need to wait for more positive policy signals after the Two Sessions [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the short - term export and import data are good, it is difficult to change the overall economic judgment. The value of treasury bonds has risen after the decline, and the negative impact from the Middle East has not completely dissipated [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term upward basis still exists, but in the short - term, the risk of postponed interest - rate cut expectations needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and US CPI, PCE data [3][4]. - **Copper**: The price increase is mainly driven by short - covering. The global macro - environment is complex, and both supply and demand are affected by multiple factors [4]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is dominated by the war situation and fluctuates sharply [5]. - **Alumina**: The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the release of new production capacity in March [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai Aluminum, and there is strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply may be affected by the Iran situation and energy costs, and the demand side has inventory pressure. The short - term metal price may be suppressed [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply of Indonesian wet - process production lines is volatile, and stainless steel is supported by the peak - season expectation [8]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is starting to resume work. The high inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term demand is affected by the Middle East situation, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and the marginal optimization of the supply - demand structure [9]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week and the implementation of secondary lead delivery [10][11]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is mainly stable, and the steel export faces pressure. The high inventory of hot - rolled coils may lead to price decline [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is relatively strong due to the tight liquidity of spot goods, but the fundamental supply - demand is seasonally weak. The upside space is limited [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure is large, and the overall black - metal series has downward pressure, but there is support at the bottom [13]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is gradually strengthening, but the upward space may be limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory of plates [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on the Middle East situation. The development of the US - Iran situation and the subsequent navigation of the Strait of Hormuz are crucial [15]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel - oil market remains strong due to supply tightening, increased ship demand, and other factors [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and the short - term geopolitical disturbance is the core factor [16]. - **LPG**: The price follows the crude oil, and the Middle East situation needs to be continuously tracked [16]. - **Plastics**: The short - term supply pressure is limited, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively good [17]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war may break the current weak balance of domestic urea [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply may be affected by maintenance, and the inventory performance is better than expected. The price space is limited [18]. - **Glass**: The production and sales are currently weak, and the high inventory in the middle reaches restricts the price increase [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, showing a weak - oscillating trend [20]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The current market is mainly affected by the weak post - Spring Festival demand, and the price has limited upward and downward space [21]. - **Oilseeds**: The price is supported by factors such as planting - cost increase, export improvement, and biodiesel boost. The domestic market will follow the performance of US soybeans in the short - term [21]. - **Oils**: The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention can be paid to the weakening of the price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil [22]. - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on the upside [23]. - **Eggs**: The short - term demand improvement supports the price to be strong in oscillation, but the upside space is limited [24]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on the demand side. The price may remain in a low - level oscillation due to the loose domestic supply - demand [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including financial futures, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. Geopolitical factors, especially the Middle - East conflict, are the core influencing variables, causing significant price fluctuations in multiple markets. Short - term market volatility is high, and the market is mainly driven by geopolitical news. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Overseas risk aversion may be transmitted to the A - share market, but the impact is diminishing. Domestic policy signals during the Two Sessions provide support, and the market is in short - term shock repair. Unexpected policies may drive the stock index to strengthen [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The policies of the Two Sessions have a neutral impact on the bond market. If the stock market adjustment intensifies, the bond market may rise due to risk - aversion. Short - term focus should be on the A - share trend and geopolitical situation [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The US - Iran conflict is the core influencing variable, with factors such as blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and postponed Red Sea resumption expectations being positive. However, issues like conflict sustainability, weak demand, and shipping capacity spill - over risks still exist, and short - term market volatility is extremely high [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The Middle - East conflict and non - farm data affect interest - rate cut expectations. Supply - side cost increases provide a long - term upward basis, but short - term adjustment risks due to postponed interest - rate cut expectations should be watched [4]. - **Gold & Silver**: The recent weakness of precious metals is due to the Middle - East situation weakening interest - rate cut expectations, leading to higher US dollar and bond yields. Short - term technical corrections after geopolitical risk mitigation should be watched [5]. - **Copper**: Last week, the copper price fell from a high, and this week it will be in a game between high inventory and peak - season expectations. The key window to verify the inventory inflection point is in mid - to late March [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts dominate the price trend. The US - Israel - Iran conflict affects aluminum supply in the Middle - East, and the price will show different performances under different conflict scenarios [6]. - **Alumina**: The US - Iran conflict has limited impact on the domestic fundamentals, but it follows the rise of aluminum prices. The medium - to long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai aluminum, and has strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: Supply may be affected by the Iran situation, and demand - side inventory pressure is large. Short - term metal prices may be suppressed [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The annual nickel ore production estimate has limited impact on the industry chain. The first half of the year has a tight quota. The market is in the post - holiday recovery stage, and the peak - season expectation supports downstream demand [9]. - **Tin**: The Iran situation and non - farm data support the metal. Supply is tight, and demand is starting to resume. High inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, the market's concern about demand has increased, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [11][12]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and supply - demand optimization signals [12]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week [12]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Iran geopolitical conflict drives up the prices of raw materials, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is stable, and the short - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term price has support due to tight tradable resources, but the upside is limited by high supply, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [14]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Domestic coal mine复产 and increased Mongolian coal customs clearance bring supply pressure. Coke production may increase, but the terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [15]. - **Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is strengthening, but the weak downstream demand and high inventory of steel products limit the upward space [16]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle - East situation is the core trading logic. The US - Iran conflict has led to supply shortages, and the market is highly volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to the Strait of Hormuz navigation and oil - producing countries' inventory changes [17]. - **Fuel Oil**: Chinese exports and the Middle - East conflict affect the Asian gasoline market. The short - term Asian gasoline price difference remains high, and the core drivers are geopolitical situation and Chinese export policies [17]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase, and inventory has seasonally accumulated. The asphalt price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are the most important [18][19]. - **LPG**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the core trading point. The supply disruption and US cold wave have pushed up the price. The length of the blockade determines the price trend [20]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has changed the import expectation, and the MTO profit expansion may drive the methanol price to catch up with the olefin increase [21]. - **Plastic**: The Middle - East situation has led to supply concerns, and the supply - reduction and demand - increase pattern makes the short - term market run strongly [21]. - **Rubber**: Geopolitical conflicts support the synthetic rubber price, which in turn boosts natural rubber. The supply - demand利多 and macro利空 coexist, and short - term geopolitical factors dominate the trend [22]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has created a global urea supply gap, and the international price has risen. The domestic market is in a tight balance, and geopolitical risks are the key variables [22]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The US - Israel - Iran conflict has affected refinery operations. Downstream demand for restocking and export expectations are positive, and the short - term price is driven by geopolitical conflicts [23]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - side maintenance may increase, and demand is stable but weak. The inventory situation is better than expected. The medium - to long - term supply is expected to be high [24]. - **Glass**: The current production and sales are weak, and the market is in the recovery stage. High inventory and supply return expectations limit the price increase, and demand needs to be verified [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The current hog market is mainly trading the post - Spring Festival weak - demand reality. The price decline is supported by secondary fattening sentiment, but the upward driving force is weak [27]. - **Oilseeds**: The April China - US negotiation expectation, rising international fertilizer prices, and improved export expectations support the soybean price. The domestic market will follow the US soybean performance in the short - term [28][29]. - **Oils**: The recent strength of the oil market comes from the crude oil and diesel markets. Short - term attention should be paid to the US - Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz navigation [29]. - **Cotton**: The current domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the cotton price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton and geopolitical risks put pressure on the upside. The short - term price may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment [30]. - **Sugar**: The market lacks a clear trend - reversal basis, and the core contradiction is low valuation but lack of continuous upward driving force [31]. - **Apple**: The apple futures market is running strongly, driven by both fundamentals and delivery logic. The short - term support is strong [31]. - **Jujube**: The market focus is on the demand side. The post - Spring Festival downstream sales are average, and the price is under pressure and may maintain a low - level shock [32][33].

Metal Market - Domestic base metals generally rose, with the exception of zinc, which fell by 0.04%. Tin led the gains with a 7.62% increase, followed by nickel at 2.32%. Other metals had gains of less than 1% [1] - In the black metal sector, all commodities saw increases of over 1%, with iron ore up 1.42%, stainless steel up 1.24%, rebar up 1.72%, and hot-rolled coil up 1.19%. Both coking coal and coke rose by 2.32% [1] - On the external market, base metals also showed an upward trend, with tin leading at 5.27% and nickel up by 1%. Other metals had gains of less than 1% [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 0.68% and silver by 3.42%. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold fell by 0.04%, while silver rose by 4.57% [1] Additional Metals - Platinum rose by 7.03%, and palladium increased by 4.5% [2] Macro Environment - The Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee and other departments issued a notice to optimize real estate policies, effective from February 26, 2026, aimed at meeting housing demand and promoting market stability [5][6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 4.095 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% [6] Oil Market - As of 15:04, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased, with WTI up 0.55% and Brent up 0.54%. Traders are preparing for upcoming US-Iran talks [9] - The API reported a crude oil inventory of 11.427 million barrels for the week ending February 20, against an expectation of 1.25 million barrels [9]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher, with platinum and Shanghai tin rising over 7% [1] - Palladium and Shanghai silver increased by more than 4%, while lithium carbonate rose over 3% [1] - Coking coal and coking coke both saw increases of over 2% [1] Group 2 - In terms of declines, European line shipping fell nearly 5%, and polysilicon dropped by nearly 1% [1]

Market Performance - The A-share market opened positively in the Year of the Horse, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87% to close at 4117.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.36% to 14291.57 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.99% to 3308.27 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 22,184 billion yuan, an increase of 2,193 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking a return to the trillion-yuan trading range [1] Sector Performance - Most industry sectors saw gains, with precious metals, oil and petrochemicals, glass and fiber, agricultural chemicals, chemical raw materials, and non-metallic materials leading the increases [4] - The film and television, media, tourism and scenic spots, and software development sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Stock Highlights - Over 4,000 stocks rose, with more than a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit up. The precious metals and oil and petrochemical sectors saw significant surges, with Tongyuan Petroleum hitting the daily limit up by 20%, and several other stocks in these sectors also reaching the limit [4] - The chemical sector showed strength, with Meibang Co. achieving four consecutive limit ups, and several other stocks like Hongbao Li and Hongqiang Co. also hitting the limit [4] - The cultivated diamond concept surged, with Sifangda hitting the daily limit up by 20% [5] Commodity Futures - Most major contracts in domestic commodity futures closed higher, with silver rising nearly 13%, lithium carbonate over 10%, and crude oil increasing over 6% [5] - Other commodities such as platinum and palladium also saw significant gains, while polysilicon and live pigs experienced notable declines [5]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with the exception of lead, which fell by 0.12%. Nickel led the gains with an increase of 1.79%, while other metals saw increases of less than 1% [1] - In the aluminum sector, alumina futures dropped by 0.35%, while casting aluminum futures rose by 0.47% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures increased by 3.66%, while industrial silicon futures fell by 0.42%, and polysilicon futures rose by 0.44% [1] - The European shipping index rose by 6.4% to 1258.9 [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore, rebar, and stainless steel all saw declines of around 0.2%, with hot-rolled coil down by 0.31%. Coking coal fell by 0.53%, and coking coke dropped by 0.3% [1] - Internationally, base metals showed mixed results, with London aluminum up by 0.27% and lead up by 0.18%, while other metals experienced slight declines [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold down by 0.32% and silver down by 1.16%, while domestic gold rose by 0.03% and silver by 0.62% [1][2] Macro Environment - The State Administration for Market Regulation released guidelines for compliance in the automotive industry, highlighting significant legal risks associated with various pricing behaviors that could lead to below-cost pricing [5] - The National Energy Administration announced that by 2025, China's new wind and solar power installations are expected to exceed 430 million kilowatts, marking a 22% year-on-year increase [6][7] - The National Energy Administration emphasized the importance of developing new energy storage and future industries such as hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy [8] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that consumers purchasing new cars during the 2026 Spring Festival can apply for subsidies under the old-for-new vehicle policy [9] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 448 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining liquidity in the market [9]

Metal Market Summary - Domestic base metals experienced a general decline, with only copper rising by 2.6%. Tin led the decline with a drop of 6.7%, while nickel fell by 1.25%. Other metals saw declines of less than 1% [1] - In the aluminum sector, alumina rose by 0.75%, while casting aluminum fell by 1.22%. Lithium carbonate increased by 4.63%, and polysilicon rose by 6.61%. Industrial silicon decreased by 0.62% [1][4] - The black metal sector saw collective declines, with stainless steel and iron ore both dropping over 1%, specifically stainless steel down by 1.77% and iron ore down by 1.14% [1] - Internationally, base metals showed collective gains, with London copper and tin both rising over 4%, specifically copper up by 4.1% and tin by 4.53%. Nickel increased by 3.29%, while aluminum and zinc rose over 1% [1] - Precious metals saw significant increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.3% and silver by 10.06%. In contrast, domestic silver fell by 16.71%, while domestic gold rose by 0.63% [1][2] Macroeconomic Overview - The Shanghai government set a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year, with public budget revenue expected to grow by 2%. The report emphasizes the importance of modernizing the industrial system and supporting key sectors such as integrated circuits and biomedicine [5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.17% to 97.44, with discussions around interest rate policies indicating a low probability of rate cuts in the near term [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to recent geopolitical tensions, Maersk's stable February quotes, and potential cargo - rush and price - support stories in March, the market is likely to remain stable in the short - term. The current valuation is moderately high, and the upward potential depends on capital behavior. It's recommended to look for short - selling opportunities, focusing on the more certain far - month contract 2610 affected by the off - season and policies. Be cautious with the 2604 contract unless there is significant premium. The export tax rebate adjustment policy is negative for contracts after April. For the 06 and 08 contracts, their valuations are hard to anchor, currently within a reasonable range and highly affected by geopolitics, so operate with caution [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Price and Volume**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1717.5 with a - 0.09% change, volume of 432, and a decrease of 374 in open interest. The EC2604 contract closed at 1249.7 with a 1.68% increase, volume of 27481, and a decrease of 477 in open interest. The EC2606 contract closed at 1576.0 with a 5.55% increase, volume of 1532, and an increase of 1704 in open interest. The EC2608 contract closed at 1645.4 with a 5.42% increase, volume of 1154, and an increase of 117 in open interest. The EC2610 contract closed at 1151.2 with a 1.42% increase, volume of 2032, and an increase of 211 in open interest [2] - **Month - spread**: The EC2502 - 2604 month - spread was 467.8, with a day - on - day decrease of 22.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 111.6. The EC2504 - 2606 month - spread was - 326.3, with a day - on - day decrease of 62.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 51.7 [2] - **Spot Indicators**: The spot (European route) indicator "ટરનાટ" on January 26, 2026, was 1859.31 points, a - 4.86% change from the previous period. The SCFI (European route) on January 23, 2026, was 1595 dollars/TEU, a - 4.83% change from the previous period [2] European Route Spot Situation - In Week 5, MSK opened at 2450 ( - 300 compared to the previous period), PA at 2400 (special price 2200), OA at 2500 - 2700 dollars, with a central price of 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market. In Week 6, MSK opened at 2050 ( - 400 compared to the previous period), PA around 2200, MSC at 2340, OA at 2300 - 2400 dollars, with a central price of 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened at 1950 for February Week 7 - 9 ( - 100 compared to the previous period), lower than market expectations [4] Related News - On January 30, Hamas announced that the handover of governance in the Gaza Strip was fully ready. US President Trump said that Hamas seemed to be about to disarm and that a team was going to Iran [5]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with Shanghai tin rising by 1.93% and Shanghai zinc by 0.77%, while other metals saw declines, with Shanghai nickel leading the drop at 1.87% [1] - In the external market, most base metals fell, except for London tin, which increased by 3.59% [1] - Precious metals showed mixed results, with COMEX gold rising by 0.07% and COMEX silver dropping by 4.4%. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold rose by 1.52%, reaching a new historical high of 1154.46 yuan per gram, while Shanghai silver surged by 7.25%, breaking the 30,000 yuan per kilogram mark [1][2] Black Metals - The black metal sector collectively declined, with stainless steel down by 1.26% and rebar down by 0.79%. Other metals also saw minor declines [1] - In the coking coal sector, coking coal fell by 3% and coking coke by 2.77% [1] Lithium and Silicon - Lithium carbonate rose by 1.5%, while polysilicon increased by 0.42%. However, industrial silicon fell by 0.78% [1] Macro Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits for large-scale industrial enterprises in China are expected to grow by 0.6% in 2025, totaling 73,982 billion yuan [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 780 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [5] Oil Market - Oil prices fell slightly, with WTI down by 0.18% and Brent down by 0.28%. Investors are closely monitoring the resumption of supply from Kazakhstan [8] - Canada and India are set to expand their oil and gas trade, indicating a strategic value in their energy relationship [8][9]