行业 欧线集运月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 9 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 挺价曙光初现 20240809【专题报告】宏观数据 走索，加速欧线集运下行 全线下挫，远月合约跌停 升破 4700 点后大幅下挫 再起，欧线主力升破 2800 点 20240419【市场点评】伊以冲突 推动欧线合约创新高，主力合约 升破 2700 点 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 近期研究报告 20240826【专题报告】多种因素 推动欧线季节性走势 9~10 月为传统淡季，且运力调控力度有限，供给压力仍存， 不过船司开始为年末长约季挺价，纷纷调涨 10 月下半月运 价，虽然宣 ...

Group 1 - The State Council is researching standards and policies for government procurement of domestic products, which is seen as an important measure to improve the procurement system and ensure fair competition [1] - The People's Bank of China announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to maintain liquidity and meet funding needs, with operations determined by liquidity management [1] - In the steel industry, there has been an increase in the scale of maintenance at steel mills, with 12 provinces involved, affecting production by approximately 29.96 million tons this week [1] Group 2 - In the soybean meal sector, actual soybean crushing volume reached 2.4275 million tons with an operating rate of 67.76%, which is 30,100 tons higher than estimated [1] - The lithium carbonate price index for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 73,534 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 70 yuan [1] - The PVC industry shows a capacity utilization rate of 76.96%, down 2.98% from the previous period, with specific methods showing varying declines [1] Group 3 - The styrene industry reported a daily profit of -411 yuan per ton for non-integrated units, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous working day [1] - As of September 19, the Shanghai export container freight index was reported at 1,198.21 points, a decrease of 199.90 points from the previous period [1] - Citigroup forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will drop to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025, with an average of $62 per barrel in the second to fourth quarters of 2026 [1]

Metal Market - As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed positive performance with Shanghai aluminum up 0.48%, copper up 0.59%, zinc up 0.36%, lead up 0.24%, while nickel fell 0.17% and tin rose 0.56% [1] - In the futures market, casting aluminum main contract rose 0.47%, alumina main contract rose 0.41%, lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.29%, and industrial silicon main contract continued its previous day's upward trend with a rise of 1.64% [1] - The black metal sector experienced a general decline, with iron ore down 1.18%, rebar down 0.71%, and stainless steel down 0.39% [1] Foreign Metal Market - As of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed results with copper down 0.16%, nickel down 0.3%, and tin down 0.31%, while aluminum rose 0.13% [1] - In precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.27% and silver fell 0.06%, while Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.26% and Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.2% [1] Futures Market - The Euro line shipping main contract fell 4.08%, closing at 1219 points [2][3] - Various futures showed specific price movements, such as industrial silicon main contract up 1.64% and copper main contract up 0.59% [3] Spot Market and Fundamentals - In the copper market, Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper spot price showed a premium of 0-60 CNY/ton against the current month contract, with an average premium of 30 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 794 billion CNY through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [4] Oil Market - As of 11:39, both WTI and Brent crude oil futures showed slight declines, with WTI down 0.11% and Brent down 0.1% [7] - The EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations of a decrease [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report - Risk Management: Futures Technical Analysis Weekly Report (Week 36, 2025) - Report Date: September 7, 2025 Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific technical analysis and signal summaries for different sectors, which can be used to infer potential investment trends for each sector. Core Views - Different sectors in the futures market show diverse trends. Some sectors have clear bullish signals, while others are in a state of oscillation. The volatility of each sector and variety also varies significantly, with some showing high volatility and others more stable [1][2][3][4]. Sector Summaries 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, tin, nickel, industrial silicon, and polycrystalline silicon show bullish signals, while most precious metals are in an oscillating state. Gold shows a bullish signal, and silver is oscillating. For example, aluminum, tin, and nickel have strong bullish signals [10][11]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Copper (CU2510)**: The adjustment is not over yet. Although the moving average shows a bullish arrangement and the risk of decline is weak, it is necessary to wait for price signals. The price has the potential to break through, but it needs volume - price driving signals [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The downward momentum has weakened, and it has temporarily found support at the MA60 moving average. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of a callback, especially the support effectiveness in the range of 66,800 - 69,600 [17]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: New energy and high - tech metals represented by lithium carbonate and polycrystalline silicon have a wide price fluctuation range, indicating high market volatility. Traditional industrial metals and precious metals have relatively more stable price trends [21]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The black sector mainly has bullish and oscillating signals. Rebar, wire rod, iron ore, coking coal, and ferrosilicon show bullish signals, while other black varieties are oscillating. The European line shipping shows a bullish signal [26][27]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The price has been oscillating and falling this week, but the support around 3,050 - 3,070 yuan/ton is effective. The MACD shows a potential golden cross. If the price breaks below this range, it may fall to the 2,950 - 3,000 range [30]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Coking coal, coke, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, and European line shipping have a wide range of support and resistance levels, indicating high market volatility. Rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore have relatively more stable price trends [35]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The energy sector is in an oscillating state. In the chemical sector, glass, methanol, synthetic rubber, and pure benzene show bullish signals, while other varieties are oscillating [37][38][39]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The downward trend has stabilized, but it needs volume - price signals to confirm a rebound. The short - term support range of 1,230 - 1,250 yuan/ton is effective [43]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Paraxylene (PX), styrene, short - fiber, and bottle chips have a wide range of support and resistance levels, with high market volatility. Crude oil, methanol, and other varieties have relatively more stable price trends [45]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: In the agricultural products sector, soybean oil, peanuts, rapeseed oil, and the corn series show bullish signals. Eggs have changed from a bullish to a bearish signal, and cotton shows a bearish signal. Other varieties are oscillating [50][51][52]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The price has shown signs of stabilizing in the range of 2,980 - 3,020 yuan/ton, and the MA60 moving average provides effective support. However, it needs increased volume to confirm bullish momentum [56]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Palm oil, cotton, and other varieties have a wide range of support and resistance levels, with high market volatility. Corn, corn starch, and logs have relatively more stable price trends [59].

8月15日，国内期货主力合约收盘跌多涨少，菜粕跌超3%，甲醇、菜油跌近2%，花生、氧化铝、沪 银、沪镍、铁矿跌超1%；多晶硅涨超4%，碳酸锂涨超2%，工业硅、欧线集运涨超1%。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows a mixed performance with the main contracts experiencing more gains than losses [1] - Lithium carbonate has seen a significant increase of nearly 10% [1] - Coking coal has risen over 4%, while polysilicon and coke have both increased by over 2% [1] Group 2 - Palm oil has also shown a rise of nearly 2% [1] - On the downside, soybean meal has dropped by over 2% [1] - European shipping rates have decreased by nearly 2% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows a mixed performance with the main contracts experiencing more gains than losses [1] - Lithium carbonate has reached its daily limit increase, indicating strong demand and market confidence [1] - Polysilicon has increased by over 6%, reflecting positive trends in the solar energy sector [1] Group 2 - Industrial silicon has risen nearly 5%, suggesting a potential uptick in manufacturing and industrial applications [1] - Red dates have increased by over 3%, indicating a growing interest in agricultural commodities [1] - Coking coal has risen nearly 3%, which may signal increased activity in the steel production sector [1] Group 3 - Palm oil and caustic soda have both increased by over 2%, reflecting trends in food and chemical industries [1] - Eggs have decreased by over 3%, which may indicate fluctuations in the agricultural market [1] - European shipping rates have dropped by over 2%, potentially impacting international trade dynamics [1]

期货午评："反内卷"引爆市场，多晶硅、焦煤今日再度触及涨停，随后价格小幅回落，多晶硅涨幅仍超 10%。生猪、工业硅大涨2%。跌幅方面，欧线集运大跌4.5%，氧化铝、碳酸锂等跌超2%。 ...

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> 基本面与预期继续博弈，多晶硅、工业硅延续涨势，再创阶段新高，盘中纷纷涨超3%；关税消息反复，集运盘 中一度逼近涨停，涨幅超17%；此外，燃油领跌，价格持续下滑跌近3%。 | 名称 代码 . | 现价 涨跌涨幅结) | | --- | --- | | 1 欧线集运2 ... ec2510 | 1655.6 +220.7 +15.38% | | 2 工业硅2509 si2509 | 8785 +240 +2.81% | | 3 多晶硅2508 ps2508 | 42470 +1150 +2.78% | | 4 氧化铝2509 ao2509 | 3165 +38 +1.22% | | 5 5-2509 a2509 | 4149 +33 40.80% | 集运指数欧线大涨15.75%！旺季需求强劲 集运主连尾盘急速拉升，盘中一度逼近涨停，涨幅超17%，最高触及1689.9点。这一涨幅反映了近期市场对欧 线集运需求的强烈反应，显示出市场情绪的积极变化。 第一，旺季需求强劲是此次涨幅的重要原因之一。根据7月11日的行业动态，马士基第30周上海至鹿特丹 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 8th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodity futures rose, with SCFIS(Europe) and poly - silicon rising by 7% [2][10][13] - The top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), poly - silicon, and silicon metal, while the top three decliners were egg, ethenylbenzene, and rapeseed meal [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On July 8th, equity index futures increased, CGB futures decreased. Among commodity futures, there were more gainers. SCFIS(Europe) and poly - silicon rose 7%. The top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe) (7.2% increase, 1.6% month - on - month open interest increase), poly - silicon (7.0% increase, 5.1% month - on - month open interest increase), and silicon metal (2.8% increase, 0.6% month - on - month open interest increase). The top three decliners were egg (1.3% decrease, 4.4% month - on - month open interest decrease), ethenylbenzene (1.1% decrease, 0.9% month - on - month open interest decrease), and rapeseed meal (0.9% decrease, 0.4% month - on - month open interest increase) [10][11][13] 3.1.2 Daily Rise 3.1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On July 8th, silicon metal rose 2.8% to 8215 yuan/ton. The fundamental surplus pattern remained unchanged, and the price rebound was driven by policy expectations. Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment was strong, but adjustment risks due to sentiment cooling should be guarded against. Northwest factories' sudden production cuts strengthened price support. If the production - cut scope expanded, July's supply - demand situation might improve marginally; otherwise, the oversupply pressure would be hard to ease. In the southwest, the resumption of production was slower than in previous years, but some factories had restarted. As prices rose, enterprises' willingness to resume production and hedge increased, which might exacerbate supply - side pressure. Demand was weak, and inventory might accumulate again [17][18][20] 3.1.2.2 Aluminium Oxide - On July 8th, aluminium oxide rose 2.8% to 3110 yuan/ton. There was no short - to - medium - term shortage of bauxite, and operating capacity and inventory were gradually recovering. Market sentiment was volatile, with more spot inquiries but a strong wait - and - see atmosphere in transactions. Warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and there were concerns in the futures market. The long - term logic focused on bauxite prices. Short - term sentiment was volatile, so it was advisable to wait and see in the short term. If market sentiment faded in the medium - to - long term, one could cautiously short far - month contracts [21][23] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Ethenylbenzene - On July 8th, ethenylbenzene fell 1.1% to 7276 yuan/ton. In a period without clear driving factors, it fluctuated in a narrow range. Affected by the easing of the Middle East situation, crude oil prices fell, and market bullish sentiment weakened. The spot supply - demand weakened, and port inventories increased, but the end - of - month short - squeeze sentiment was strong. Fundamentally, supply returned, demand weakened, and the market was moving towards inventory accumulation. The fundamentals of pure benzene improved marginally. Two points should be noted: the low inventory level of the ethenylbenzene industry chain and the better fundamentals of pure benzene from July to August [26][27][29] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the 7th local time that she expected to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues between China and the U.S., and the two sides would discuss expanding cooperation [34] - Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will pay an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Premier Li Qiang [34] 3.2.2 Industry News - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced measures to optimize and expand the Bond Connect, including expanding the scope of participating institutions in Southbound Trading Connect and optimizing the offshore RMB bond repo business [35] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has been cooperating with mainland regulatory authorities to promote the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, and the trading scale of RMB - denominated Hong Kong stocks is expected to rise [35]