Core Viewpoint - The demand for influenza medications has surged, with the Chinese influenza drug market fluctuating around 10 billion RMB. Oseltamivir dominates the market, led by Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical, while Roche's Xofluza is the leader in new influenza drugs [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The search volume for "Oseltamivir" on JD.com increased nearly 500 times compared to the same period last year, indicating a significant rise in demand for generic drugs [5]. - After the patent protection for Roche's original drug Tamiflu expired, Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical took control of the market, generating 5.54 billion RMB in revenue from its Oseltamivir product, accounting for nearly 90% of its total revenue in 2023 [6]. - National centralized procurement policies have disrupted the existing market structure for Oseltamivir, leading to a significant price drop and increased competition from other generic manufacturers, resulting in Dongyang Sunshine's sales halving to 2.58 billion RMB in 2024 [7][8]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Dongyang Sunshine failed to win bids in the 11th batch of national drug procurement, which will inevitably shrink its market presence in hospitals [8]. - The overall market for antiviral drugs in China is projected to decrease from 11 billion RMB in 2023 to 8 billion RMB in 2024, with Oseltamivir accounting for about 80% of this market [8]. - The market for traditional Chinese medicine is also growing, with sales of common cold and flu medications increasing significantly, further impacting Dongyang Sunshine's market share [9]. Group 3: New Drug Developments - There is a strong consumer demand for new antiviral drugs, with purchases of Marboxil showing a remarkable increase of over 600% in a two-week period [11]. - Roche's Xofluza remains the dominant player in the innovative drug market for influenza, with a significant supply increase expected in 2024 [11][12]. - Several domestic pharmaceutical companies have received approvals for new influenza drugs in 2023, with more expected to enter the market in 2025, potentially impacting the market share of Oseltamivir [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market share of Oseltamivir is gradually being replaced by PA proteinase inhibitors, indicating a shift in treatment preferences [14]. - Despite the anticipated rise of new antiviral drugs, Oseltamivir is expected to maintain a certain market share due to varying clinical needs and payment capabilities across different demographics in China [14].