Core Insights - The flu season in China has entered a rapid increase phase, with many provinces reaching moderate to high epidemic levels, leading to a significant rise in demand for flu vaccines and antiviral medications [1][4] Group 1: Flu Vaccine Supply and Demand - Flu vaccine and antiviral drug supplies remain stable across multiple regions, with no significant price increases reported, although some innovative and imported vaccines are experiencing temporary shortages [1][2] - There is a notable increase in flu vaccine appointment requests in northern provinces, with four-valent subunit flu vaccines facing tight inventory, while adult flu vaccines are generally available [2][3] Group 2: Targeted Vaccination Initiatives - Beijing has included school students and frontline workers in a free vaccination program, aiming to complete the initiative by the end of the month, with other regions extending vaccination hours for minors [3] Group 3: Antiviral Drug Demand Surge - The demand for antiviral medications has surged, with sales figures showing a 22-fold increase in flu medication transactions since the onset of the flu season, and specific products like Oseltamivir and Favipiravir seeing significant sales growth [4][5] Group 4: Drug Efficacy and Market Regulation - Current antiviral medications remain effective against circulating flu strains, with no evidence of increased virulence in flu viruses; regulatory bodies are actively monitoring and ensuring stable supply and pricing of these medications [5][6]

每经记者：林姿辰每经编辑：黄博文 进入初冬，全国多地流感病例明显增多。 根据国家疾控中心发布的最新中国流感流行情况概要，2025年11月10日至16日，南方省份哨点医院报告 的ILI%（流感样病例百分比）为6.7%，北方省份哨点医院报告的ILI%为7.0%，均高于前一周水平，以 及2022年、2023年和2024年同期水平。 根据京东健康方面提供给《每日经济新闻》记者的数据，11月以来，京东买药秒送平台的流感类药品成 交额环比10月增长明显。其中，解热镇痛类药物订单量增长超4.5倍，速福达成交额增长超过了14倍， 达菲、可威的成交额增长幅度都超过了9倍。 另外，阿里健康平台数据显示，11月10日至11月23日，流感抗病毒药物购买人数实现超500%的环比增 长。其中，速福达表现尤为突出，购买人数环比增长超600%，增速领先；抗病毒口服液购买人数环比 增长50%。 记者注意到，上门检测也成为头部电商平台争夺客流的手段。比如，淘宝闪购联合阿里健康，在11月官 宣上线了"居家闪检"新服务，推出"呼吸道病毒细菌12联检"项目，目前该服务在北京市、上海市、广州 市、杭州市开启试运营。 京东到家快检的数据则显示，11月14 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates a significant rise in influenza activity in China, with a notable increase in patients visiting hospitals for treatment, prompting the need for early antiviral therapy and consideration of various factors in drug selection [1][2][3] Group 1: Influenza Activity - The latest report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention shows a marked increase in influenza activity, particularly in southern provinces, with the percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases reported at 4.6%, up from 4.1% the previous week [2] - Northern provinces reported an ILI percentage of 5.1%, significantly higher than the previous week's 3.7% and above levels from 2022, 2023, and 2024 [2] - A total of 347 influenza-like illness outbreaks were reported nationwide, with 245 cases identified as A(H3N2) [2] Group 2: Treatment and Drug Approval - The increase in influenza cases has led to a rise in hospital visits, particularly in pediatric departments, with doctors recommending early antiviral treatment within 48 hours of symptom onset [4] - Oseltamivir remains the preferred antiviral treatment, especially for children and immunocompromised patients, with over 120 approvals for related products from various companies [4][5] - The market for oseltamivir is dominated by Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical, holding over 70% market share in the past three years [4] Group 3: New Drug Developments - Several new RNA polymerase inhibitors have been approved in China, with the year 2025 being referred to as the "Year of Domestic Influenza New Drugs" [1][6] - Roche's Marbofloxacin has seen a significant increase in demand, with supply pressures leading to local production initiatives [6][7] - Other domestic companies, such as Qingfeng Pharmaceutical and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, have also launched new antiviral drugs, contributing to a broader range of treatment options for influenza [7][8] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The price of Marbofloxacin ranges from 195 to 234 yuan per pack, with no adjustments made by Roche despite increased demand [7] - Companies like Haizheng Pharmaceutical have reported a significant rise in demand for their antiviral products, with ongoing supply guarantees in place [8][9] - The market is seeing increased competition as more domestic firms enter the RNA polymerase inhibitor space, with several products currently in clinical trials or awaiting approval [9]

Group 1 - The recent flu monitoring data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention indicates an upward trend in flu cases, with H3N2 subtype accounting for over 95% of positive samples detected in both southern and northern provinces [1] - The symptoms of flu are typically more severe compared to other respiratory diseases, often presenting with high fever above 38.5°C and muscle aches, making it crucial to quickly identify the cause of infection when symptoms arise [1] - There has been a significant increase in demand for home testing services for respiratory infections, with a 63% week-on-week growth in testing orders from October 28 to November 3, and a positive detection rate rising to 59.3% [1] Group 2 - The online consultation services have alleviated pressure on offline hospitals during flu season, reducing the risk of cross-infection due to crowding [3] - JD Internet Hospital has launched a special fever clinic with 24-hour online access to top-tier doctors, resulting in a 47% week-on-week increase in flu consultation volume in the past two weeks [4] - There is a growing trend in the demand for antiviral medications, with JD's data showing a 315% increase in orders for Sufuda and a 380% increase for Kewai from October 20 to November 2 [4]

Core Viewpoint - 九州通's total brand promotion business (CSO) achieved a sales revenue of 14.728 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, demonstrating steady growth [1] Group 1: Pharmaceutical CSO Business - The pharmaceutical CSO business generated a sales revenue of 8.740 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.26%, primarily driven by the strong performance of core products such as 可威 and 弥可保 [1] - The company has introduced 81 new product specifications during the period, including 9 high-value products, and has secured the distribution rights for 8 specifications of 卡泊三醇 in retail channels through collaboration with 利奥中国 [1] - 九州通's platforms, including 全擎健康, currently represent 783 product specifications, with 32 products achieving annual sales exceeding 100 million yuan, covering chronic diseases and anti-infection areas [1] Group 2: Medical Device CSO Business - The medical device CSO business recorded a sales revenue of 5.987 billion yuan, facing challenges due to the impact of medical consumables procurement policies on certain products like ultrasound knives and staplers [1] - The company represents 1,386 product specifications from 11 major manufacturers, including brands like 强生, 罗氏, and 雅培, across 15 product lines [1] - New product introductions, such as 登士柏 (dental) and 加奇, have shown rapid growth, with sales revenue exceeding 180 million yuan in the first three quarters [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.30 CNY, based on a 14x PE ratio for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a steady growth in its pharmaceutical distribution business, achieving a revenue of 119.3 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.98 billion CNY, up 16.5% year-on-year [9]. - New business segments, particularly digital logistics, are expected to continue their rapid growth, with revenue from digital logistics and supply chain solutions increasing by 25.0% year-on-year [9]. - The company is actively introducing new products, with 81 new agency drugs added in the first three quarters of 2025, contributing to a strong profit growth momentum in the CSO business [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 150.14 billion CNY - 2024: 151.81 billion CNY - 2025: 162.73 billion CNY (7.2% growth) - 2026: 174.35 billion CNY (7.1% growth) - 2027: 186.71 billion CNY (7.1% growth) [4][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2023: 2.17 billion CNY - 2024: 2.51 billion CNY - 2025: 2.27 billion CNY (9.4% decline) - 2026: 2.38 billion CNY (4.6% growth) - 2027: 2.69 billion CNY (13.1% growth) [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast is: - 2023: 0.43 CNY - 2024: 0.50 CNY - 2025: 0.45 CNY - 2026: 0.47 CNY - 2027: 0.53 CNY [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by its strategic focus on new products, new retail, and digital logistics. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a year-on-year increase in operating revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 5.41%, 8.46%, and 15.24% respectively [4] - Compared to Q2 2025, net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.39%, and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses rose by 16.49% [4] - For the first three quarters of 2025, operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 5.20% and 16.46% respectively, supported by steady growth in pharmaceutical distribution and emerging business segments [4] Business Segments New Products Strategy - The company’s brand promotion business achieved sales revenue of 147.28 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on expanding product varieties [7] - The pharmaceutical brand promotion business saw a 15.26% year-on-year increase in sales revenue, driven by strong sales of core products [8] - The company introduced 81 new products during the period, including several high-value items [8] New Retail Strategy - The company’s "Good Pharmacist" franchise reached 33,275 stores nationwide, with a 43.40% year-on-year increase in sales revenue from franchise stores [15] - The B2C e-commerce segment generated 8.17 billion yuan in sales revenue, marking a 13.00% increase [17] Digital Logistics and Supply Chain Solutions - The digital logistics and supply chain solutions business achieved revenue of 9.18 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.95% growth [37] - The company has established a comprehensive intelligent pharmaceutical logistics network covering 96% of the country [38] Digital Transformation - The company invested 2.29 billion yuan in R&D in the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on AI applications across various business scenarios [25] - The company has developed a digital platform that integrates logistics, software, and operational services, enhancing efficiency and customer satisfaction [39] Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - The company’s REITs have performed well since their listing, with a cumulative increase of 43.28% in share price by September 30, 2025 [28] - The company has a robust portfolio of logistics assets, supporting its REITs strategy and ensuring stable business growth [29] Talent Strategy - The company has successfully recruited 572 key personnel in various strategic areas, with a 74.30% increase in talent acquisition costs compared to the previous year [40]

Core Viewpoint - Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical has achieved a significant milestone with the approval of its Fingo Mod capsule, marking it as the first domestic generic version in China, showcasing the company's advancement in the high-end generic drug sector [1][4][5] Group 1: Product Development and Pipeline - Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical has established a comprehensive R&D, production, and sales platform, focusing on three major areas: anti-infection, chronic diseases, and oncology [2] - In the anti-infection sector, the company is developing multiple therapeutic combinations aimed at functional cure for hepatitis B, utilizing siRNA and ASO technologies [2] - The company is advancing its idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) treatment, Ifenprodil, to Phase III clinical trials and has received FDA orphan drug designation, indicating strong therapeutic potential [2] - In the oncology field, Dongyangguang is exploring cutting-edge technologies such as synthetic lethality, PROTAC, next-generation ADC, CAR-T, and TCE [2] Group 2: Market Position and Sales Performance - The company has leveraged its established sales channels and brand advantages to launch a series of pediatric products, with recently approved hepatitis C products rapidly gaining market traction [3] - Dongyangguang's diabetes product line is comprehensive, with its insulin glargine currently under BLA submission in the U.S., potentially making it the first Chinese company to market this drug in the U.S. without Phase III trials [3] - The global market for multiple sclerosis drugs, including Fingo Mod, is estimated to be between $20 billion and $30 billion, indicating significant revenue potential for Dongyangguang's newly approved product [5] Group 3: Market Recognition and Future Outlook - Recently, China Merchants Securities initiated coverage on Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical with a "strong buy" rating, reflecting confidence in the company's innovative pipeline and expected earnings growth [3] - The successful approval of Fingo Mod as a first generic demonstrates Dongyangguang's execution capabilities and strategic direction, paving the way for a transition from low-end generics to high-end first generics and independent innovation [5]

Core Insights - Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical is the first company in China to achieve a public listing through absorption and merger, establishing an integrated platform for research, production, and sales of innovative drugs [1][2] - The company focuses on three main research areas: anti-infection, chronic diseases (metabolic), and oncology, with a rich pipeline of research and rapidly growing products [1][2] Group 1: Anti-Infection - The anti-infection research pipeline targets functional cure for hepatitis B, with multiple therapeutic combinations [1] - The company is developing siRNA and ASO molecules on a small nucleic acid technology platform, showing competitive preclinical data [1] - There is potential for expansion into infection, respiratory, cardiovascular, and metabolic diseases [1] Group 2: Chronic Disease Treatment - The company has promising developments in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and metabolic diseases, with significant business development potential [1] - The drug Ifenprodil for IPF has reached Phase III clinical trials and received FDA orphan drug designation, demonstrating good treatment effects and safety in Phase II trials [1] - The metabolic disease portfolio includes a comprehensive weight loss product matrix with multi-target, long-acting, and safer molecules [1] Group 3: Oncology - The oncology sector employs multiple technologies with differentiated strategies, including synthetic lethality, PROTAC, next-generation ADC, CAR-T, and TCE platforms [2] - The drug Cliflotinib is the first domestic FLT3 inhibitor to enter Phase III clinical trials for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) [2] - HEC921 has potential as a first-in-class dual antibody targeting 4-1BB and LY6G6D, and the company is developing an oral PD-L1 small molecule with compliance and efficacy advantages [2] Group 4: Product Lines - The pediatric product line is a core competitive advantage, leveraging established channels and brand strength [2] - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its hepatitis C product line, which includes gene-specific and pan-genotype drug combinations [2] - The diabetes product line is comprehensive, with the long-acting insulin Glargine submitted for BLA in the U.S., indicating potential for international expansion [2] Group 5: Financial Outlook - The company is rated "strongly recommended" for investment, with projected net profits of 560 million, 1.11 billion, and 1.42 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 96% and 28% [2] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 45x, 23x, and 18x for the same period, indicating confidence in the company's innovative pipeline development [2]

Core Insights - Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical is advancing from an integrated "research-production-sales" model to a "global innovation" strategy, supported by a strong pipeline and clear strategic layout [1] - The company has received a "strong buy" investment rating from招商证券 based on its integrated platform value and progress in three core innovation areas [1] Group 1: Integrated Platform and Core Areas - Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical has built a comprehensive capability covering research, production, and commercialization over more than 20 years, with a focus on three core areas: anti-infection, chronic disease metabolism, and oncology [2] - In the anti-infection sector, the company is targeting functional cure for hepatitis B, addressing a global clinical challenge with approximately 254 million chronic hepatitis B virus carriers worldwide, including 75 million in China [2] - The company is developing siRNA and ASO technologies to inhibit HBsAg synthesis and reduce HBsAg levels, showing potential to outperform international competitors in hepatitis B treatment [2] Group 2: Chronic Disease and Oncology - In chronic disease treatment, the company is advancing its drug for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) to phase III clinical trials, having received FDA orphan drug designation, with clinical data indicating superior efficacy and safety [3] - The company is exploring differentiated products in metabolic diseases, with some already authorized for overseas markets, indicating international innovation value [3] - In oncology, Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical has multiple platforms targeting unmet clinical needs, including the first domestic FLT3 inhibitor in phase III trials and innovative dual antibodies and oral PD-L1 small molecules [3] Group 3: Technology and Commercialization - The company has invested in technology platforms, including an "AI + medicine" platform that has successfully advanced AI-designed molecules into clinical stages [4] - As the largest producer of oseltamivir globally, the company holds a leading position in the pediatric flu medication market, with potential sales elasticity depending on flu season trends [4] - The company’s comprehensive diabetes pipeline and unique hepatitis C product offerings are expected to drive rapid growth through a professional sales network [4] Group 4: Financial Performance and Growth Potential - Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical's revenue growth is driven by a robust commercial network covering 32 provinces in China and established international markets [5] - The chronic disease treatment segment has emerged as a strong growth engine, with revenue projected to grow from 517 million yuan in 2022 to 1.068 billion yuan in 2024, nearly doubling its revenue share [6] - The company is expected to maintain steady profit growth, with projected net profits of 560 million yuan, 1.11 billion yuan, and 1.42 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, alongside significant revenue increases [6]