Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports that Hong Kong's retail sales increased by 5.9% year-on-year to HKD 31.3 billion in September, surpassing the bank's forecast of 2% growth and the market consensus of 2.6% [1] - The cumulative retail sales decline for the first nine months of the year has narrowed to a year-on-year decrease of 1%, prompting Morgan Stanley to revise its full-year forecast to a 2% decline, up from the previous expectation of a 5% drop [1] - Despite a year-on-year increase of 11% in mainland visitors in October, the bank maintains a cautious outlook due to potential impacts from increased outbound tourism and rising unemployment rates [1] Retail Sector Analysis - Retail rental stocks such as Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Hysan Development Company (00014) are expected to benefit, with dividend yields ranging from 1.7% to 2.7%, which are higher than the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 4% year-on-year increase in Hong Kong's retail sales for October, primarily driven by an increase in visitor numbers during the eight-day National Day Golden Week holiday, although this may be partially offset by more public holidays leading to increased outbound travel [1]

大摩认为，零售收租股如九龙仓置业(01997)与希慎兴业(00014)可能受惠，其股息率达1.7%至2.7%，高 于美国10年期国债收益率。大摩预测，香港10月零售销售同比升4%，主要受8天国庆黄金周假期带动访 客人数增加，但部分被公众假期更多外出旅游增加所抵销。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，9月香港零售销售同比升5.9%至313亿元，高于该行预测增 长2%及市场共识预测增长2.6%。最近数月正面增长可能显示市场正在触底。大摩表示，今年首九个月 累计零售销售跌幅进一步收窄至同比跌1%;大摩将全年预测上调至同比减2%，原预期跌5%;尽管10月内 地访客同比升11%，惟因第四季出境旅游增加及失业率上升可能影响消费，故大摩维持保守立场。 ...