Group 1: Core Views - The US dollar index fell below 97, reaching a new low since February 2022, with a daily drop of 0.72%, while non-USD currencies strengthened significantly [1][4] - Morgan Stanley analysts predict a 40% chance of a US economic recession in the second half of 2025, primarily due to escalating tariffs leading to stagflation [2][6] - UBS Wealth Management's report indicates that the dollar index has dropped to a three-year low, with expectations of further weakening due to uncertainties in the US economic outlook and rising fiscal deficit concerns [5] Group 2: Non-USD Currency Dynamics - The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated significantly, with foreign speculative funds increasing, prompting Taiwan's central bank to request the exit of overseas investors engaging in speculative bets through ETFs [1][8] - Despite the strengthening of non-USD currencies, investors have reduced long positions in the Thai baht and increased short positions in the Indian rupee, while turning bearish on the Philippine peso for the first time since early March [1][9] - The trend of foreign investors using reverse ETFs to hedge against market risks while betting on the appreciation of the Taiwanese dollar has raised concerns about its impact on the export-oriented economy [8]