过去10年间，美国国债的买家群体发生了巨大的变化，过去"稳如磐石"的美联储和外国政府，已经让位于"逐利嗅觉"灵敏的对冲基金。 根据美联储发布的报告，财政部美债持仓统计数据未完全反映"与基差交易相关的交易"。开曼群岛的对冲基金持有的美国国债规模将达到1.85万亿美元， 已经是美国本土外持有美债规模最大的地区。 最近，摩根大通董事总经理、前财政部长耶伦的副幕僚长耿·恩加姆布纳南特突然大声发出警告——这种变化不仅已经推高美国的利率水平，显著增加利 率波动幅度，进而推升抵押贷款、助学贷款及各类借贷的成本，还会使美国金融系统更加脆弱，难以应对市场冲击。 摩根大通是全球市值最大、综合实力最强的"西方银行"——没有"之一"。 摩根大通用自有的3500亿美元准备金买国债，就导致整个美国银行体系的流动性不足，逼着美联储在12月12日"紧急大转弯"，从缩表到反向扩表仅用11 天！甚至可以夸张地形容，美联储的货币政策是要为摩根大通服务的。 摩根大通的董事总经理本就"权势滔天"，耿·恩加姆布纳南特还当过前财长的副幕僚长，无比清楚"帝国财政的深层秘密"。他亲自到媒体上发表文章，要 当美债吹哨人，发出的警告，哪个美国人敢不听？ 美债市场 ...

今日，泰国央行行长Vitai Ratanakorn（维泰·拉塔纳功）表示，泰国央行已采取措施干预泰铢汇率，已要求各银行监测外汇流入情况。有分析指出，泰铢 汇率持续升值令泰国出口、旅游行业面临巨大压力，泰国央行或将在本周三（12月17日）降息25个基点。 与此同时，韩国"国家队"也紧急出手，以支撑持续贬值的韩元。12月16日，韩元兑美元汇率一度跌至1477.68，12月韩元平均汇率一度跌至金融危机以来 的最低月度水平。韩国国民年金公团（NPS）周一（12月15日）宣布，将以更"灵活"的方式推进战略性外汇对冲，以支撑疲弱的韩元汇率。 泰国紧急出手 12月16日，维泰·拉塔纳功表示，泰国央行已采取措施干预泰铢汇率，已要求各银行监测外汇流入情况。 与此同时，泰国央行正在就拟议的外汇管制条例修订案征求公众意见。其中一项提案要求大型黄金交易商向央行报告详细的交易数据。此举旨在加强交易 监控，评估对泰铢的影响，并为制定后续的适当政策措施提供支持。 泰国财政部长埃克尼提·尼提坦帕帕斯周一表示，政府计划要求国有企业加快进口并偿还外债。他还补充说，他正在与泰国央行行长讨论泰铢升值问题。 泰铢汇率持续升值导致出口导向的泰国经济面临 ...

多国紧急出手。 今日，泰国央行行长Vitai Ratanakorn（维泰·拉塔纳功）表示，泰国央行已采取措施干预泰铢汇率，已要求各银行监测外汇流入情况。有分析指出，泰铢汇率持续升值 令泰国出口、旅游行业面临巨大压力，泰国央行或将在本周三（12月17日）降息25个基点。 与此同时，韩国"国家队"也紧急出手，以支撑持续贬值的韩元。12月16日，韩元兑美元汇率一度跌至1477.68，12月韩元平均汇率一度跌至金融危机以来的最低月度水 平。韩国国民年金公团（NPS）周一（12月15日）宣布，将以更"灵活"的方式推进战略性外汇对冲，以支撑疲弱的韩元汇率。 泰国紧急出手 12月16日，维泰·拉塔纳功表示，泰国央行已采取措施干预泰铢汇率，已要求各银行监测外汇流入情况。 他在一份声明中表示，泰国央行担心货币快速升值，正在收紧与黄金相关的交易。 维泰·拉塔纳功补充称，泰铢汇率走强主要由美元疲软和外资持续流入推动。 纽约梅隆银行高级分析师Wee Khoon Chong称，在泰国经济增长停滞、通胀趋平缓及政治不确定性下，泰铢过度强势并不受欢迎。 华侨银行高级东盟经济学家拉瓦尼亚·文卡特斯瓦兰表示："我们一直认为，泰国经济至少在增长 ...

【导读】韩国要打一场韩元保卫战？ 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下韩元危机的消息。 12月14 日，在韩元持续贬值的情况下，韩国政府紧急召开外汇市场应对会议，连同保健福祉部、产业通商资源 部也一并参与。 （原标题：突然！货币战争，紧急出手！） 本月，韩元兑美元平均汇率已突破1470韩元，创下金融危机以来的最高月度水平。12月12日，韩元汇率 在夜盘交易中，盘中一度跌至1美元兑1479韩元。 出席会议的包括具允哲副总理、金融委员会委员长（主席）李亿元、韩国银行行长李昌镛、金融监督院 院长李灿镇、总统室经济增长首席秘书官河俊庆，以及保健福祉部第一副部长李斯兰、产业通商资源部 产业政策室长朴东一。 此次会议参与范围超出通常的外汇主管部门，连保健福祉部与产业部也出席，外界认为这是为了更全面 地盘点与外汇供需相关的因素，例如国民年金的海外投资动向、出口企业持有的美元资金等。国民年金 还计划于12月15日在福祉部长官主持下召开基金运营委员会。 12月10日，韩国央行一名货币政策委员会委员表示，外汇主管部门需要出手遏制韩元兑美元的贬值，因 为这可能重新点燃通胀压力，并削弱居民的零售购买力。 韩国银行（央行）货币政策委 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the new Federal Reserve Chair under Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and the future stability of the US dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Hassett has indicated intentions to implement aggressive interest rate cuts if appointed, suggesting that economic growth will be driven by Trump's tax cuts and new industrial policies, rather than genuine economic data [1]. - There are fears that such a shift could lead to reckless monetary expansion, resulting in a devaluation of the dollar and a possible sell-off of US debt [3]. - Historical precedents show that government interference in central bank policies often leads to economic crises, as seen in the 1970s with Nixon's forced monetary easing [3]. Group 2: China's Gold Strategy - China is significantly increasing its gold reserves as a strategic move to mitigate risks associated with the dollar's declining dominance and to establish a more central role in the international financial system [3][5]. - The increase in China's gold reserves reflects a broader strategy to enhance domestic asset liquidity and create an independent value system in response to US pressures [5]. - China's actions are not merely about accumulating gold but also involve seeking opportunities to use gold as collateral in trade, enhancing transaction flexibility [5]. Group 3: Global Economic Implications - If Trump successfully exerts control over the Federal Reserve, it could lead to domestic economic fluctuations and international skepticism regarding the dollar's credibility [7]. - Countries may accelerate the sale of dollars in favor of more stable currencies or assets, potentially igniting a new currency war [7]. - The ongoing geopolitical complexities suggest that both the depreciation of the dollar and the appreciation of gold will have significant impacts on global economic dynamics [7].

当中国央行连续13个月增持黄金储备的消息传来，7158万盎司的数字背后，藏着一条横跨世纪的金融暗线。这不仅是简单的资产配置调整，而是一场关于货 币信用的百年博弈——黄金与美元的较量，从未真正停歇。 数字货币时代的黄金新角色 当各国央行开始研究数字货币时，黄金却意外焕发新生。财信证券研报指出，美联储加息周期结束的预期，正在使黄金"去美元化"功能凸显。中国民生银行 温彬的分析更为直接："黄金超越欧元成为全球第二大储备资产，正是因其脱离了单一主权货币体系。"就像7158万盎司的储备数字，每增加1盎司，都是对 美元信用体系的一次微小但坚定的质疑。 这场持续百年的货币战争远未结束。当38万盎司的月度增持遇上706亿美元的外储增长，中国央行用行动给出了选择题的答案：在美元武器化与地缘冲突叠 加的时代，黄金仍是终极的"金融避雷针"。或许正如那7158万盎司黄金沉默的光芒所暗示的——货币会贬值，但人类对绝对价值的追寻永不褪色。 印钞机与黄金牛市的隐秘联动 翻开美联储资产负债表会发现惊人规律：2008年金融危机后其规模扩张5倍，同期黄金价格从680美元/盎司飙升至2075美元/盎司；2020年疫情后再度扩表 114%，金价随即 ...

哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇国际评论，就来聊聊俄罗斯莫斯科首发人民币主权债引发西方热议，全球 多国扎堆拥抱人民币，这到底是市场用脚投票的理性选择，还是西方炒作的"货币对抗"？ 这股"人民币热"的背后，既非中国单方面推动的"货币扩张"，也不是针对任何货币的对抗行动，而是全 球经济主体基于现实需求做出的理性抉择，是国际货币体系多元化演进的必然结果。 人民币在国际市场的认可度，正通过一个个具体行动不断夯实。 俄罗斯在莫斯科首发人民币主权债，成为人民币国际化进程中的又一标志性事件，而这只是全球"人民 币热"的一个缩影。 12月，俄罗斯财政部宣布在莫斯科发行首批人民币计价主权债券，这一常规的国际融资行为，却被部分 西方舆论贴上"挑战美元体系""地缘政治对抗"的标签。 从英国、印尼到俄罗斯，从巴西、印度到东盟各国，越来越多国家主动选择人民币作为结算、储备和融 资货币。 截至2024年四季度，全球80多个国家和地区的央行已将人民币纳入外汇储备，总额达2470亿美元，IMF 数据显示其占比升至2.18%，较2016年加入SDR时提升1.1个百分点。 全球"人民币版图"持续扩容，多国用行动投下信任票 在东盟地区，中国与越南、马来 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in late October did not weaken the US dollar, which instead reversed its declining trend, with the ICE dollar index reaching a high of 100.25 points, the highest since early August [1][2] - The increase in US Treasury yields across the board, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.1046% and the 30-year yield to 4.6879%, indicates a shift in market sentiment towards the dollar [1][2] - The ongoing US government shutdown has significantly impacted market liquidity, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) surging by 18 basis points, the largest single-day increase since March 2020 [3] Group 2 - The trade "truce" between the US and China is expected to support the dollar by stabilizing trade policies and tariffs for at least a year, which may help control inflation [4] - The economic challenges faced by the Eurozone and Japan, including low growth and internal political issues, limit their currencies' ability to compete with the dollar [5] - The Trump administration's focus on maintaining the dollar's international status includes providing liquidity support to countries like Argentina and encouraging the use of the dollar in Latin America [6][7]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant transformation in the perception of gold among younger generations, shifting from being seen as outdated to a trendy symbol, driven by a remarkable price increase of over 60% this year [1][2] - The unique attributes of gold, combining consumption, savings, and investment, have allowed it to occupy a special place in people's minds, being both a wearable asset and a source of security [1] - Investors exhibit complex emotions regarding gold investments, with early investors lamenting missed opportunities and those waiting on the sidelines feeling anxious about potential losses and missed chances [2] Group 2 - The article reflects a common dilemma faced by investors: the desire to seize opportunities while fearing potential risks, leading to a mix of greed and fear that characterizes the current gold bull market [2]

Economic Overview - The economic situation in the US during the first half of the year is poor, with a significant decline in GDP expected for the second quarter, potentially down 7%-11% year-on-year and up to 40% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate [2][3] - The unemployment rate is severely underestimated, with official figures showing 14% in April, but actual estimates suggest it could be as high as 30% [3] Political Implications - The upcoming election influences the decision not to release negative economic forecasts, as such data could severely impact the incumbent's chances [4] - The administration's focus on "America First" and blame-shifting is a strategy to maintain support from its base, particularly among economically vulnerable groups [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has implemented four rounds of quantitative easing (QE) since 2008, with the most recent rounds aimed at stabilizing the economy and supporting government debt [5][6] - The current fiscal deficit is projected to reach $3.7 trillion, significantly higher than previous years, indicating a reliance on debt issuance to manage economic challenges [7][8] Debt and Monetary Policy - The US is expected to face a fiscal deficit exceeding $8 trillion this year, with a debt-to-GDP ratio projected to surpass 152%, the highest since World War II [8] - The Federal Reserve's bond purchasing has decreased to $50 billion daily, raising concerns about the impact of continued debt issuance without corresponding monetary support [8] Global Economic Impact - The US's monetary policy, particularly quantitative easing, may lead to asset bubbles and potential currency wars, affecting global economic stability [9][10] - The pandemic has accelerated a trend towards de-globalization, which could lead to increased competition and challenges for countries that were previously reliant on global supply chains [11]