同时，中美之间达成贸易"休战"，对于美元而言同样是一个支撑。这意味着至少在1年之内，双方的贸 易政策会保持在可预期范围之内，关税水平和贸易限制会维持稳定。这实际上对于美国控制通胀有帮 助。另外，随着美国与一些国家相继达成贸易协议，美国与其他国家之间的实际关税水平也没有特朗普 此前宣称的那么大。这将扭转此前市场担心的通胀上升的前景，使得美元走弱预期发生转变。就此而 言，美国内部、外部的一系列变化，虽然不一定有利于美国经济，但却会改变美元的走势。 另外，从国际主要货币来看，欧元和日元都受限于自身问题，难以对美元相抗衡。日本方面，在高市政 府上台后，基本放弃了维持日元稳定、约束通胀的政策，改为进一步扩大财政刺激，推动日元贬值，以 刺激出口和资本市场。这导致日元兑美元汇率，回到了155左右。欧洲方面，欧元区经济第三季度勉强 实现0.2%的增长，略高于市场预期，但内部分化严重，德、法等核心国家经济仍然低迷。德国方面巨 额财政刺激效果并不理想，而法国仍然陷入财政预算的政治纷争之中。俄乌冲突的持续，更令欧洲经济 前景黯淡，也使得一度受到关注的欧元难以维持当前的地位。就此来看，即使在特朗普"保守主义"政策 之下，美国市场的深 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant transformation in the perception of gold among younger generations, shifting from being seen as outdated to a trendy symbol, driven by a remarkable price increase of over 60% this year [1][2] - The unique attributes of gold, combining consumption, savings, and investment, have allowed it to occupy a special place in people's minds, being both a wearable asset and a source of security [1] - Investors exhibit complex emotions regarding gold investments, with early investors lamenting missed opportunities and those waiting on the sidelines feeling anxious about potential losses and missed chances [2] Group 2 - The article reflects a common dilemma faced by investors: the desire to seize opportunities while fearing potential risks, leading to a mix of greed and fear that characterizes the current gold bull market [2]

Economic Overview - The economic situation in the US during the first half of the year is poor, with a significant decline in GDP expected for the second quarter, potentially down 7%-11% year-on-year and up to 40% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate [2][3] - The unemployment rate is severely underestimated, with official figures showing 14% in April, but actual estimates suggest it could be as high as 30% [3] Political Implications - The upcoming election influences the decision not to release negative economic forecasts, as such data could severely impact the incumbent's chances [4] - The administration's focus on "America First" and blame-shifting is a strategy to maintain support from its base, particularly among economically vulnerable groups [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has implemented four rounds of quantitative easing (QE) since 2008, with the most recent rounds aimed at stabilizing the economy and supporting government debt [5][6] - The current fiscal deficit is projected to reach $3.7 trillion, significantly higher than previous years, indicating a reliance on debt issuance to manage economic challenges [7][8] Debt and Monetary Policy - The US is expected to face a fiscal deficit exceeding $8 trillion this year, with a debt-to-GDP ratio projected to surpass 152%, the highest since World War II [8] - The Federal Reserve's bond purchasing has decreased to $50 billion daily, raising concerns about the impact of continued debt issuance without corresponding monetary support [8] Global Economic Impact - The US's monetary policy, particularly quantitative easing, may lead to asset bubbles and potential currency wars, affecting global economic stability [9][10] - The pandemic has accelerated a trend towards de-globalization, which could lead to increased competition and challenges for countries that were previously reliant on global supply chains [11]

Core Insights - China's holding of US Treasury bonds has decreased to $800 billion, only 60% of its peak, while the global payment share of the renminbi has only slightly increased to 2.5% [1] - Despite the expectation for China to lead the "de-dollarization" movement, it maintains a strategic balance by signing currency swap agreements with 39 countries while keeping over 50% of its foreign trade settled in US dollars [2] Group 1: Strategic Considerations - The US dollar serves as a protective shield for China, as its capital account is not fully open and its domestic financial market lacks depth, making a hasty challenge to the dollar potentially risky [2] - High-profile moves towards de-dollarization could provoke a united response from the US and Europe, as seen in the 2024 chip blockade against China, which reflects the ongoing struggle for monetary sovereignty [2] - China is waiting for technological breakthroughs, such as quantum computing and satellite internet, to enhance the capabilities of its digital currency [2] Group 2: Defensive Measures - China is building a monetary sovereignty defense line through a gold and resource anchoring system, with gold reserves projected to exceed 2,200 tons by 2025, and control over 60% of global rare earth and 45% of lithium production [5] - The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has been established to facilitate direct fund clearing, processing RMB transactions worth 120 trillion yuan in 2024, covering 180 countries [5] - A closed-loop settlement system is emerging in trade with Russia, where RMB transactions account for 65%, allowing trade without reliance on the dollar [5] Group 3: Long-term Vision - The timeline favors the renminbi, as the US dollar's dominance is supported by military, oil, and technology, but China's advancements in military and renewable energy could shift the balance by 2030 [7] - The US's monetary policies, including the expansion of its balance sheet and the freezing of foreign reserves, undermine the perceived safety of the dollar, prompting countries like the Philippines to consider local currency settlements [7] - China's initiatives to promote the use of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) and support regional currency settlements aim to dismantle the dollar-centric system, positioning the renminbi as a key player in a multipolar currency landscape [7]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's new regulatory framework for stablecoins aims to significantly reduce cross-border payment fees, challenging the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system [1][8]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has introduced a new regulatory sandbox that mandates stablecoins to be backed 100% by cash or government bonds, addressing vulnerabilities seen in previous algorithmic stablecoins [5]. - Licensed institutions are required to submit monthly audit reports, and reserve accounts will be monitored continuously, creating a robust safety framework [5]. - The new regulations allow for stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar, Chinese yuan, or even gold, providing flexibility in the market [5]. Group 2: Market Impact - The new regulations have led to a dramatic reduction in transaction costs, with examples showing a decrease from $6,000 to $600 for cross-border payments, enhancing profit margins for businesses [3]. - Everyday consumers are experiencing benefits, such as a reduction in remittance fees from $25 to $0.5, showcasing the positive impact on personal finances [3]. - Major financial institutions, including BlackRock, are adapting to these changes by tokenizing assets, lowering investment thresholds, and enabling 24/7 trading [3]. Group 3: Global Context - The global landscape for stablecoins is becoming increasingly fragmented, with the US pushing for dollar-backed stablecoins and the EU imposing restrictions on non-euro stablecoins [7]. - Hong Kong's approach contrasts with these strategies by promoting innovation and attracting global players with a lower capital requirement for registration [7]. - Currently, 95% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, indicating the significant challenge Hong Kong's new framework poses to the existing dollar-centric system [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of stablecoins, particularly in the context of China's regulatory framework and the implications for global financial systems, highlighting the strategic competition between countries in the digital currency space [1][2][4]. Group 1: Development of Stablecoins - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" has officially come into effect, marking a significant step in digital asset governance [1]. - The development of digital currencies can follow two paths: top-down (central bank digital currencies) and bottom-up (cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin) [2][4]. - Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are easier to integrate with existing financial systems and offer regulatory advantages, but lack the market-driven demand seen in cryptocurrencies [2][4]. Group 2: International Competition and Strategy - The differences in digital currency approaches among countries, particularly between China and the U.S., stem from varying levels of recognition and emphasis on digital currencies [4][5]. - The competition in digital currencies is viewed as a form of currency warfare, with emerging powers seeking to establish their currencies while traditional powers respond with stablecoins [5][7]. - The U.S. is pushing for stablecoins to enhance demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly short-term bonds, while the long-term bond market faces challenges [8][9]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Sovereignty - The rise of stablecoins poses significant challenges to national monetary sovereignty, as they could lead to a loss of control over domestic currencies [18][19]. - The development of a global stablecoin market could undermine traditional monetary policies and create a scenario where countries lose their ability to manage their currencies effectively [18][19]. - The article suggests that the emergence of stablecoins could lead to a unified global currency market, further complicating the monetary sovereignty of smaller nations [19][20]. Group 4: China's Response and Future Outlook - China is encouraged to adopt a dual strategy of promoting both CBDCs and stablecoins to counter the influence of U.S. stablecoins [33][34]. - The potential for a Chinese stablecoin is seen as a strategic move to provide an alternative to the dollar and enhance the internationalization of the renminbi [41][42]. - The article emphasizes the importance of international cooperation and rule-setting in the digital currency space to ensure that China can effectively navigate the challenges posed by stablecoins [31][32].

Group 1 - The recent enactment of the stablecoin legislation in the U.S. is seen as a move to expand the global role of the dollar into the digital realm, marking the beginning of a new "currency war" driven by the digital currency revolution [1] - As of mid-July, $2.17 billion in cryptocurrency has been stolen from various platforms this year, surpassing the total theft of $1.87 billion for all of 2024, with projections indicating this could reach $4 billion by the end of 2025 [1] - The surge in cryptocurrency-related crimes coincides with the Trump administration's favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies, raising concerns about global financial security due to the lack of regulation in various cryptocurrency exchanges [1] Group 2 - Trump's shift in attitude towards cryptocurrencies is attributed to the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections and support from key figures in the crypto industry, such as Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal [4] - Nearly 70 officials appointed by the Trump administration have investments in cryptocurrencies or related companies, with investments ranging from small amounts to over $120 million [6] - The newly established "American Bitcoin Company," backed by the Trump family, has raised $220 million and is planning to go public [6] Group 3 - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $260 billion, with 95% being dollar-pegged stablecoins, which are increasingly investing in U.S. Treasury bonds [8] - The U.S. government has issued over $36 trillion in debt, and with declining credit ratings from major agencies, the expansion of the stablecoin market could see it grow to $3.7 trillion by 2030, making stablecoin issuers significant holders of U.S. debt [8] - This creates a new "on-chain U.S. debt cycle," where stablecoin companies purchase U.S. Treasury bonds, providing the government with cash while users receive stablecoins [8] Group 4 - The U.S. aims to "on-chain" the dollar to maintain its dominance, while criminals exploit new technologies to launder illegally obtained cryptocurrencies, complicating global financial governance [10] - The emergence of stablecoin legislation in the U.S. has sparked an invisible "currency war," raising questions about the future of the international monetary system amid increasing calls for de-dollarization and skepticism towards U.S. debt [10] - The challenge lies in establishing a fair and stable international financial order as various countries' local currencies seek to go "on-chain" in an era of decentralized and peer-to-peer payments [10]

Group 1 - The announcement of potential interest rate cuts by the US in July signals a new phase in the currency battle between the US and China, indicating a profound restructuring of the global economic landscape [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is primarily aimed at stimulating economic growth amidst high inflation and uncertainty in the job market, while also compensating for the fiscal stimulus already consumed by previous policies [3][5] - China's response to US rate cuts may involve maintaining liquidity through quantitative easing rather than immediate rate adjustments, as it prepares for the fallout from its real estate market bubble [5][6] Group 2 - The ongoing monetary policy adjustments between the US and China could significantly influence global capital flows and international investment patterns, affecting economic growth rates in both countries [6][8] - Other major economies, such as the Eurozone and Japan, may also need to adjust their policies in response to the spillover effects of US rate cuts, potentially leading to currency depreciation and capital outflows in emerging markets [8][10] - The potential for a prolonged period of low interest rates in the US could lead to asset bubbles globally, impacting resource allocation and wealth distribution, which in turn affects everyday life [10][12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the strategic dynamics of the US-China trade war, emphasizing that as long as the trade relationship with China remains stable, the US can impose tariffs on other countries without significant repercussions [1][3] - It highlights that countries attempting to gain favor with the US by antagonizing China are likely to face harsher treatment from the US, as seen in the case of the EU [3] - The article notes that the US's approach to the trade war has allowed it to maintain an advantage over other nations, particularly those that are not aligned with China [3][5] Group 2 - The article points out that the US, while being a resource country, also holds a unique position as a financial power due to its dollar hegemony, which is increasingly being challenged [5][6] - It mentions that President Trump has been scrutinizing the Federal Reserve's financial practices, indicating a potential shift in control over monetary policy [6] - The article suggests that the ongoing tensions between the US, China, and Russia are fundamentally a struggle over monetary dominance, with the US facing challenges in managing international financial capital [8]

Group 1: Core Views - The US dollar index fell below 97, reaching a new low since February 2022, with a daily drop of 0.72%, while non-USD currencies strengthened significantly [1][4] - Morgan Stanley analysts predict a 40% chance of a US economic recession in the second half of 2025, primarily due to escalating tariffs leading to stagflation [2][6] - UBS Wealth Management's report indicates that the dollar index has dropped to a three-year low, with expectations of further weakening due to uncertainties in the US economic outlook and rising fiscal deficit concerns [5] Group 2: Non-USD Currency Dynamics - The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated significantly, with foreign speculative funds increasing, prompting Taiwan's central bank to request the exit of overseas investors engaging in speculative bets through ETFs [1][8] - Despite the strengthening of non-USD currencies, investors have reduced long positions in the Thai baht and increased short positions in the Indian rupee, while turning bearish on the Philippine peso for the first time since early March [1][9] - The trend of foreign investors using reverse ETFs to hedge against market risks while betting on the appreciation of the Taiwanese dollar has raised concerns about its impact on the export-oriented economy [8]